Cheltenham Festival 2012: DAY 4

SteveM

SteveM

At the Start
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DAY 4 March 16, 2012

View blog here: http://horseracingstrategyanalysis.blogspot.com

Triumph Hurdle 2m 1f 4yos
I try to avoid having a bet in the Triumph, although in the past two years my selections in Soldatino and Zarkandar have obliged at generous odds.

Shortlist:
Grumeti 4
Pearl Swan 4
Sadler’s Risk 4
Baby Mix 4
Darroun 4
Ranjaan 4

Selections:
1) Pearl Swan 2) Baby Mix 3) Grumeti 4) Darroun

VOB County Handicap Hurdle Grade 3 2m 1f
Starluck will be hard to beat at a big price racing off 150.

Shortlist:
Starluck 7
Getmeoutofhere ? 8
Moon Dice 7
Ted Spread 5
Raya Star 6

Selections:
1) Starluck e.w. 2) Getmeoutofhere 3) Raya Star

AB Novice Hurdle 3m

Shortlist:
Boston Bob ? 7
Mount Benbulben 7
Rocky Creek 6

Selections:
1) Mount Benbulben 2) Boston Bob 3) Rocky Creek


Gold Cup Grade 1 3m 2½f
Favourites have won six of the past 10 renewals and the biggest priced of the other four was 15/2. 7, 8 and 9yos do the best by far in this. Kauto Star and Tidal Bay may be getting a bit long in the tooth for this, but represent a good standard by the old guard. Long Run looks to have a compelling chance and Midnight Chase may be good enough to make the frame this time at the expense of Kauto Star. The likes of Burton Port, Quel Esprit, What A Friend, Weird Al and Captain Chris could be interesting propositions for a place.

Shortlist:
Long Run 7
Kauto Star 12
Grands Crus 7
Midnight Chase 10
Burton Port 8
Tidal Bay 11
Weird Al 9
Synchronised 9
Quel Esprit 8
Captain Chris 8
What A Friend 9
Medermit 8
Captain Chris 8

Selections:
1) Long Run 2) Midnight Chase 3) Burton Port 4) Kauto Star
5) What A Friend/Quel Esprit/Captain Chris

Previous winners
2011 Long Run 6 7/2 fav
2010 Imperial Commander 9 7/1
2009 Kauto Star 9 7/4 fav
2008 Denman 8 9/4
2007 Kauto Star 7 5/4 fav
2006 War Of Attrition 7 15/2
2005 Kicking King 7 4/1 fav
2004 Best Mate 9 8/11 fav
2003 Best Mate 8 13/8 fav
2002 Best Mate 7 7/1


Foxhunter Steeple Chase
The amateur jockey’s Gold Cup. Age no barrier to this with all ages from 7 to 13yos winning in the past 21 renewals. Earthmover won the race in 1998 and again in 2004 (at the respective ages of 7 and 13)

Shortlist:
On The Fringe 7
Chapoturgeon 8
Salsify 7
My Flora 8
Barbers Shop 10

Selection:
My Flora
 
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Intrigued to see where Citizenship goes in terms of races on day four. Is the County a forgone conclusion, or will they take a chance over further?
 
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Re The Triumph

Just finished watching the Betfair Preview Videos http://www.youtube.com/Betfair which was pretty interestig apart from the fact that they have not posted the Arkle comments.

Why I have posted here is that McCain seemed pretty wound up about Hollow Tree's narrow defeat to Grumeti giving weightespecially with the lack of pace and Jason dropping his whip. His views coincide with those of my own which I've posted (therefore he is absolutely spot on). I too like to see a either a tough horse in the Triumph (got Kissair a mean bugger at 33's one year) or a very good quality flat horse.

At the price Hollow Tree has to be worthwhile ew and I'm going in for more.
 
Last opportunities to get the bank up before the flat season starts proper....
Triump looks wide open in an indifferent year. Am waiting on a very decent 4 figure sum if Mount Benbulben wins the AB. Is Boston Bob a good thing here? Two murderous handicaps to end the day. Really sweet on Make a Track in the Martin Pipe. He will love the trip and ground and his run in the Boylesports at Leopardstown will have shown him what a frenetic handicap hurdle is all about. Kid Cassidy could be a huge plunge horse in the last. Think the front two in the GC will get turned over.
 
I have taken leave of my senses..probably after backing 4 winners today and also had the Cockney Mackem backed at 25-1 (2nd) . Had gone a month without a winner till yesterday.

Am seriously considering backing 2 50-1 shots tomorrow- Cornas in the Johnny Henderson and Edgardo Sol in the Vincent O Brien. Somebody please convince otherwise:blink::blink: No drink taken as yet either:D
 
Moon Dice wins the County
Shadow Dancer wins the Triumph
 
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Local Hero and Boston Bob are going to bring me back from the brink this week and deliver a nice profit. Come on lads.
 
Boston Bob will struggle on the ground I reckon Simon..6/4 is worse value fav of week for me..you probably on at bigger anyway..but its shocking value tomorrow
 
I'm quite keen Boston Bob but Sea of Thunder would be the danger on the better ground.

I'm taking on the Nicholls horses in Kauto Star and Pearl Swan and have laid both. Laying Nicholls and some of the Mullins soft ground horses has proven successful this week so going to stick with lays on the nicholls pair.

If Gormanstown Cuckoo settles, he has a chance in the Martin Pipe. The fast pace will really suit him and they normally go mad in this.
 
Let's try and achieve the impossible dream tomorrow.

Triumph Hurdle History

2011 / Zarkandar - Held up as a weak 8-1 outsider on debut despite a flashy pedigree, made hard work of a win despite staying on well after challenging early. The runner up Molotof was put up 17lbs to 143 next time out.

2010 / Soldatino - Three French runs to date, was 7/4 by default of a weak field, held up made mistakes but challenged early and stayed on well. The second horse was given a rating of 131 next time out.

2009 / Zaynar - Strong favourite on debut, held up challenged early made mistakes but drew clear, runner up was given 138 next time out - Won by 8 lengths next time out after going for home early whilst being held up - 3rd horse btn 8.75l given rating of 131 next time out.

2008 / Celestial Halo - Group class flat horse, 14l winner on hurdles debut after going off a strong favourite, challenged early after tracking leaders. runner up given 122 next time out. Held up and challenged late next time out, beaten 7l - winner rated 134 next time out.

2007 / Katchit - Average handicapper on the flat, started hurdling career in early September, won 5 times including two Graded success with the last race being in January where the third horse Pauliac btn 4.25l was given a rating of 139 next time out.

/

Right 5 years should suffice, that took about 20 minutes and I want to spend no longer than 10 minutes whilst my short term memory is fresh in finding the winner for Talking Horses.

What I'm looking for is a horse that has hit the front early managing to stay there and find extra at the finish either coming clear or staying on well beating at least a 136 rated horse in behind- throw the good horses at the deep end see what they got whilst being a little undercooked then you have plenty to go to war with in the Triumph.
 
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So you need a potentially high class hurdler who will excel on good ground and a fast run two miles? Shadow Catcher.
 
SlimChance said:
So you need a potentially high class hurdler who will excel on good ground and a fast run two miles? Shadow Catcher.
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I've skipped past that horse and currently up to Pearl Swan, so far I haven't seen any of them beat anything rated at least 136 or higher in behind a part from Shadow Catcher when behind Hisaabaat (Countrywide Flame 139) - Shadow Catcher dulled quite far out from home so that's a positive.
 
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Have been taken by this Baby Mix personally!

The basis of my work on the last 5 winners of the Triumph was showing early ability on the 1st run, throwing yourself out there against high class opposition, getting yourself in front and making a target for the others to catch.

Baby Mix on hurdling debut from France "Tracked leader 2nd, challenged from 2 out until led going smoothly well before last, came clear run-in, easily "

Hinterland was the runner up beaten 7 Lengths who went on to be given a rating of 141 next time out by the handicapper.

This story best fits that of the previous 5 winners in my personal opinion and I don't think you'd go far wrong with this horse tomorrow team!

£500 WIN BABY MIX

/

Next race.
 
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EC1 said:
Boston Bob will struggle on the ground I reckon Simon..6/4 is worse value fav of week for me..you probably on at bigger anyway..but its shocking value tomorrow
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I thought so too, initially, but the trainer thinks he'll love the ground, and there's plenty of fast ground form in his breeding.
 
EC1 said:
Boston Bob will struggle on the ground I reckon Simon..6/4 is worse value fav of week for me..you probably on at bigger anyway..but its shocking value tomorrow
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Why do you think he won't act on the ground EC? Action, form or pedigree. I want him beat but am strongly thinking of saving on him.
 
Obviously he won't get near the good thing in the first race, but I do think asaid of John fergusons is over priced. His run at leopardstown wasn't that bad and given more experience and better ground, he may well run well in this....
 
While my bets were boozing I came home to research Cheltenham tomorrow and came up with this random nugget of information.Nigel Twiston Davies had 34 runners this month -32 of them went shorter in running than their betfair sp -this week at Cheltenham 11 runners-they all shortened in running( by an average of about 52%).
My interpretation of this information is that the stable is in good form and the horses are outrunning the markets expectations but possibly the horses that have run so far aren't good enough-I will be having a few quid on Astracad in the Grand Annual at 10/1.
 
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