Cheltenham Festival 2012: DAY 4

I was hoping Asaid would go Fred Winter. Can't find a bet in the Triumph.

Need to spend time on County.

I fancy Burton Port strongly in Gold cup. I am on him and QE at nice prices ante-post. I guess rain would help.

My Flora and the Irish yolk Salsify have been backed in the Foxhunters'.
 
LUKE said:
While my bets were boozing I came home to research Cheltenham tomorrow and came up with this random nugget of information.Nigel Twiston Davies had 34 runners this month -32 of them went shorter in running than their betfair sp -this week at Cheltenham 11 runners-they all shortened in running( by an average of about 52%).
My interpretation of this information is that the stable is in good form and the horses are outrunning the markets expectations but possibly the horses that have run so far aren't good enough-I will be having a few quid on Astracad in the Grand Annual at 10/1.
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Or perhaps they're running moderately, but in front of low expectations, a consequence of his having endured a bit of a thin time?

Interesting stat, though
 
Very Very Ordinary said:
Or perhaps they're running moderately, but in front of low expectations, a consequence of his having endured a bit of a thin time?

Interesting stat, though
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He has had a few right rags running this week that couldn't really go much longer IR. There is quite possibly something in it though. Everything will drift when KC goes off at 5/2:whistle:
 
On The Bridle said:
If I feel the need I am sure I can get on somewhere in the am at 7/4...
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I had my phone out to ask you to have €900/€200 with Willian Hill for me two weeks ago. It's been a festival of procrastination and poor conversion for me thus far.
 
I have a hell of a lot at stake tomorrow lads. A poor couple of days but a lucky 31 and an accumulator alive if Synchronised has a good day. For that happen, I'll need rain.

Long run is the form horse but not the greatest jumper sometimes and even though Kauto Star has beat him on the last two outings, I don't think he has it in him.

Weird Al is your value but if it doesn't rain, I expect a good race from Midnight Chase.

And just to have an interest, Baby Mix in the Triumph and Mount Benbulben in the Albert Bartlett are who I will be backing to cover my loses :)
 
Long Run has got to be hard to beat, his season has been based around bringing him to the boil for this. The stable form has been well advertised. Can't have Kauto at all here, i hope that the sentimental money will come for him and i can lay him around 3's
 
Kid Cassidy also got a promising mention in the McCoy book.

If Long Run wins, surely it will be the first time that a jockey with ONE win all season (excluding PTPs) has won the Gold Cup.

Don't care what anyone says, W-C is a serious liability. His inability to see a stride is shocking and he wouldn't be in the top 5 amateurs riding at the festival.
 
Gagsie said:
I have a hell of a lot at stake tomorrow lads. A poor couple of days but a lucky 31 and an accumulator alive if Synchronised has a good day. For that happen, I'll need rain.
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Just my view, but the New Course is riding a piece faster than the RP or Timeform would have us believe, and horses like Synchronised and Midnight Chase will struggle to keep tabs on them today.
Should suit Kauto though, and he could blow this non-staying theory completely out of the water..
 
del boy said:
Obviously he won't get near the good thing in the first race, but I do think asaid of John fergusons is over priced. His run at leopardstown wasn't that bad and given more experience and better ground, he may well run well in this....
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I liked Asaid that day too. Stayed on like a train. The hill will suit but will he be close enough to make that count. Not many coming from back of mid field.
 
Amongst all the multi-million pound operations/yards with runners in this we have a horse from a not-so-big yard, who loves Cheltenham, has improved from a rating of 137 at the start of last season to be around a 10/1 chance for glory here.

I fancied Quel Esprit anti-post but it'd be so good for the game if Midnight Chase could improve and win it. Granted it's unlikely, but them colours are very familiar and the Clarke's as owners have owned a few horses down the years havn't they.

Some spokesman for Ladbrokes said when commenting on this race how if Midnight Chase won the race bla bla bla you wouldn't be telling your grandchildren about it (on SP website). Well I can't even guarentee I'll have grandchildren FFS you smug little rat lol.

Midnight Chase was having his first try in this race last year after a somewhat heavy campaign. This year he is a much fresher horse, has peaked at the right time, and if it were him and Kauto in a battle jumping the last I'd be very happy.

The 'small time' horse, & 'small time trainer' might land the spoils, you never ever know.
 
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I don't think MB has much of a chance - I'd personally get out of the bet. Has anything ever come to light as to why he jumped right lto?

I don't fancy any of the first 3 at the prices.
 
Cantoris said:
I liked Asaid that day too. Stayed on like a train. The hill will suit but will he be close enough to make that count. Not many coming from back of mid field.
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So do I.

A big plus is how New Year's Eve and Cotton Mill have ran this week.
 
Hamm said:
I don't think MB has much of a chance - I'd personally get out of the bet. Has anything ever come to light as to why he jumped right lto?

I don't fancy any of the first 3 at the prices.
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They said afterwards he had a slight back problem and he had run up light through too much racing and needed a break. The ones that haven't run since Christmas are getting kicked to death out there. He was the best / level best bumper horse in Ireland last yeat on my ratings but he was sent to the wrong address similar to Minsk.

He's too big a price still to get fully out of the bet but I will trick around to save a profit.
 
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