Cheltenham Festival 2012: DAY 4

I said earlier in the season that I thought Ruby had simply outridden SWC in the Betfair. SWC insisted on going up the inside at Haydock and got roasted. My view before the Gold Cup was that he needed to be at least beside KS from the outset. Turn the tables on KS, take him on. He should have been right on the shoulder of Midnight Chase. But what did he do? Kept him at the front of midfield. Then went up the inside down the hill when he should have been moving him out. What was he doing inside Time for Rupert three out when he knows that the rail comes out after that fence so if you jump slightly left you need to jink out to the right to make the turn. That was shocking but you could see it happening. SWC has learned nothing this season. Until they go from the front with Long Run, like Ruby is happy to do with KS, then he will not win anymore Grade 1s. AP said that at the 3rd last he was in trouble. If Long Run had kicked down the hill, Synchronised would have been so far back that he wouldn't have made up the ground.

As for the rest of the Festival, it was very enjoyable. Given how badly out of form the Nicholls horses were, Big Bucks did very well to win. Hobbs also out of form. I wonder has the mild winter created a few problems for the yards. Or has the clean run through the winter meant that some horses were just over trained. They had no enforced break this winter like they've had in the last few years. I wonder were some of the horses just a bit flat.
 
you don't know that for a fact though..but you have answered correctly..it wasn't RT best run..so why was LR rated off him by people?..it would be fair to say Riverside was probably 5 to 10 below his best when stretched out in that KG

which was my point..the staying thing is relative anyway..every horse stays 5 miles..some do it faster though

Riverside Theatre earned an RPR of 172 for his KG run, and has run within 1lb of that rating every run since. Judged by the way he was outpaced for much of the RyanAir, and only got on top in the final strides, I'd say there's every chance he'll be a major force in next season's KG, too.
Fwiw, I also queried the value of Long Run's Gold Cup win at the time, though i wouldn't denigrate it more on what he's achieved this season as, for whatever reason, he plainly is not the same horse. I also opined at the time that What A Friend had probably improved by 5 or 6lbs in the race, for the addition of first-time blinkers and the better ground, a view supported by the form of all the horses around him.
Long Run clearly has a problem, better to recognise that and move on, rather than throw a year old baby out with the bathwater.
 
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It's interesting that the Henderson employee who won all that money didn't include Long Run in his bet, but included Riverside Theatre who [I think] hadn't even ran when he put the bet on.
 
long run its seems a fashion to blame the jockey truth his the horse dosnt jump quickly enough he was in an ideal position all the way hit the front briefly over the last but couldnt go on as he had previously beaten the giant bolster further than syncro had at newbury one can only presume for whatever reason he hasnt run up to either his best or at least his newbury form i dont think for one moment any other jockey including mccoy could have got him to win

synco very good ride by mccoy which must have left backers of binocular wondering why he could have used more intitative in the champion hurdle

boston bob made a few small mistakes and didnt seem to be going that well at stages dont think the loss was down to the jockey mullins horses were abit in and out over the festival some running well and others not showing either that or the ground could be the cuase thereagain the winner might just be the better horse which is quite possible
 
Best horse in the land wins the KG; best horse on the day wins the Gold Cup. Sometimes it's the same horse, but often isn't.
 
Best horse in the land wins the KG; best horse on the day wins the Gold Cup. Sometimes it's the same horse, but often isn't.

Yes - it is a quirk that the GC is over two and a half furlongs longer - rather like running the Arc over the Leger trip.
 
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Originally Posted by granger
Geraghty wouldn't have won on LR today
I didn't say that. But I wouldn't be sure either way

Im with BTB here. There doesnt have to be any great analysis to just know that SWC isnt going to get as much out of the horse as BG. Watching SWC ride is like watching Cascarino play as centre forward when you could have had Van basten. No one has to go into the nuts and bolts of it... you just know
 
I don't do fashion, PR. I think it is unlikely that the horse would have won with another jockey, but I find it weird that people can think that an amateur could be as proficient a jockey as McCoy and Walsh.

And to my eye, he wasn't good on Friday.
 
I am amazed that AP had so few rides this week outside the JP horses - the ride he gave Divers in the Plate ( the horse did not quite get home ) was quite superb and had he been aboard Kazlian I very much doubt the horse would have been caught.
 
In terms of Long Run regressing "at his age" - I think I said some time back (possibly after the KG) that IMO he is simply conforming to the traditional 'type' of French horse that we were used to before Kauto came along and rewrote our expectations i.e spectacularly precocious but quick to decline at a younger age than the traditional Ire/GB NH-bred chaser. I don't think Geraghty, Walsh, or even McCoy on ProPlus could have got LR home in front this year.
 
the 2 underused jockeys were
Townnend and Carberry, for me the best 2 riding nowdays


Timmy Murphy ws also missed


McCoy is overrated and nowdays I see him as negative on a horse I want to back.
 
the 2 underused jockeys were
Townnend and Carberry, for me the best 2 riding nowdays


Timmy Murphy ws also missed


McCoy is overrated and nowdays I see him as negative on a horse I want to back.


Seriously???

McCoy overrated??

'Punter's friend' Carberry - the best riding???

No.
 
193 winners 28% strike rate Yup he's definitely a negative :lol:

Unless you are willing to miss out every race he rides in then you have a 28% chance of losing in these races before you take all the other reasons why your selection might lose.

That's about as logical as backing a horse with a bookie at 4/1 that's on offer everywhere else at 5/1.
 
In terms of Long Run regressing "at his age" - I think I said some time back (possibly after the KG) that IMO he is simply conforming to the traditional 'type' of French horse that we were used to before Kauto came along and rewrote our expectations i.e spectacularly precocious but quick to decline at a younger age than the traditional Ire/GB NH-bred chaser.
Not sure about that. I just think both LR and Burton Port left their Gold Cup behind at Newbury.
 
Carberry was hardly brilliant on Plan A.

The hurdle track on the new course must be the toughest to ride on a horse of doubtful courage,grit ,call it what you will. PC was on a non stayer whose lack of fortitude is well known. Consider that on the going horses were not coming from off the pace. In these circumstances he rode it quite brilliantly. He was also placed on Silverhand and his ride in the Grand Annual was the ride of the meeting .
 
Carberry and Cantoris have previous! Of that I am sure - I bought Carberry's book in the hope that it would be mentioned but to no avail! Cantoris will eventually let it slip - the mask will drop!:D
 
My brother was not pleased with the ride he gave Silverhand.

On Plan A, he rode a doubtful stayer from the front? Strange that. I thought he was the master of the hold up. Now if he rode Silverhand that way.

BTW, I backed none of Carberrys and I think he is one of the most talented riders I have seen. Just like Darren Clarke is one of the most talented golfers I have seen. They share the same problems though.
 
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Getting back to the point here's one for you to mull over.

Did it ever occur to any of you that Long Run. like Kauto Star is a much better horse round a flat track like Kempton than he is round Cheltenham.

His record is appauling at Cheltenham if you take away last years Gold Cup. in which he beat a horse who retired shortly afterwords and a very sick horse. They can all look good doing that.

His other 3 runs: Stuffed carrying nothing in the Paddy Power, Stuffed in te RSA and beaten pointless by Sync this season.

He will never win another Gold Cup IMO and he's a lucky horse to have been around at the right time to win one....going to the pub so feel free to fight among yourselves:D
 
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