Cheltenham Festival 2012: DAY 4

I just think Long Run has been seriously overrated - last year he beat a declining Denman and an off form Kauto. This year Kauto has been great but I suspect quite a long way of his 2007-2009 best but that made him still much better than the rest.

Very hard to escape the conclusion that if the Betdair Chase and KG Kauto had turned up he would have won comfortably.
 
I thought it was the best Gold Cup for years as far excitement goes if not class. Best horse around Cheltenham won, I think is fair comment.

Very hard to imagine Synchronised winning something like the KG or even a Betfair Chase so no doubt he could lose out early next season in that type of race but come the Gold Cup he'll be back after Long Run's scalp.

He could easily come back and do it again next season as he's got one huge plus over the rest. He's beat them on their ground, should it come up soft next season? say no more.

All these novices have a long way to go to be catching up with Long Run over 3 miles round the likes of Kempton somewhere I doubt if Jonjo would be intereted in going, so there's a lot of mileage left in LR yet even if he is no Kauto Star.
 
No Slim. I'm saying the jockey is poor, he didn't give Long Run a good ride. I agree with Ardross that Long Run is overrated, as was last year's Gold Cup. I was one of the people on here last year saying so despite the general love in for Gold Cup 11.
 
Other than SWC's ride, I find it incredible that people can't see what a peach McCoy gave the winner. Similar to Clive, I am no expert. But in my book a good ride is as much about what you get out of a horse. AP squeezed every drop out of Synchronized.
 
Maybe Long Run was bought to win a Gold Cup, which he did do last year. And maybe anything more would have been a bonus.

It's not such a bad thing he got beat and won't now be a superstar winning 20 grade one's on the bounce like Kauto.

It means we'll likely get a decent price on him at Aintree if he goes there, as opposed to the 2/1 on offer yesterday (in a trappy but very competative race).

They'll be desperate to get a win out of him now before this seasons novices come along next season.

He'll be totally unfancied by the public now to win anything and will warrant a lumpy bet when everyone decides he;s finished - simples.

As for Cohen, surely if you backed him yesterday you would have had to factor that in,
 
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Ardross said:
I just think Long Run has been seriously overrated - last year he beat a declining Denman and an off form Kauto. This year Kauto has been great but I suspect quite a long way of his 2007-2009 best but that made him still much better than the rest.
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Agree with this. But I also think he's regressed by around half a stone. For the two renewals he's run in I'd go

2011
LR 171 Den 164 KS 159 WaF 159 MC 153

2012
Syn 168 TGB 164 LR 164 BP 158 TfR 157
 
Don't see how a horse of his age can regress. Never been a Long Run fan but have always been a Kauto fan and yesterday was depressing to watch. In some ways I want them to run him again because he deserves to go out on a high.
 
What was The Giant Bolster off coming here. He ran some race. Synchronised sprinted home on decent ground at Leopardstown and as a pony size maybe this is his ground and they have been running him on the wrong ground all along? If Synchronised could jump he could be a little bit special
 
Doubt it was his ground yesterday, OTB, as he was being niggled along before they'd gone 100 yards, and throughout the rest of the race.

Re- Long Run: maybe those who are crabbing his 2011 Gold Cup form could explain how he managed to beat Riverside Theatre 12l in the KG?
 
reet hard said:
Re- Long Run: maybe those who are crabbing his 2011 Gold Cup form could explain how he managed to beat Riverside Theatre 12l in the KG?
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The KG form is better, maybe to the tune of 176 rather than 171. That puts RT on 167 for that run and for me that horse has improved three pounds or so this season.
 
reet hard said:
Doubt it was his ground yesterday, OTB, as he was being niggled along before they'd gone 100 yards, and throughout the rest of the race.

Re- Long Run: maybe those who are crabbing his 2011 Gold Cup form could explain how he managed to beat Riverside Theatre 12l in the KG?
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Rating LR through what a friend isn't crabbing form..its giving a true reflection of the 2011 race..WAF had never been higher than 159 at that time and subsequent efforts haven't made him much higher..if you are generous and say he is a 162/163 horse it makes LR a 175 in that GC..again..subsequent runs by LR don't make him higher than that..lower if anything they make rating off WAF rating at that time..159 look more near the mark..LR about 171/172 at best

Riverside Theatre isn't a stayer..thats why he lost by 12 lengths in the KG..to rate other horses off a horse that has underperformed due to not being suited is just making it fit to suit one horse..which isn't objective or accurate
 
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Nacarat didn't go mental up front in that King George so LR was in a better position than Riverside during the race.

I think they went too quick up front yesterday. The time was seven seconds slower on ground that might have been just a tad more dead. Midnight Chase was a lot further back which backs this up.
 
EC1 said:
Rating LR through what a friend isn't crabbing form..its giving a true reflection of the 2011 race..WAF had never been higher than 159 at that time and subsequent efforts haven't made him much higher..if you are generous and say he is a 162/163 horse it makes LR a 175 in that GC..again..subsequent runs by LR don't make him higher than that..lower if anything they make rating off WAF rating at that time..159 look more near the mark..LR about 171/172 at best

Riverside Theatre isn't a stayer..thats why he lost by 12 lengths in the KG..to rate other horses off a horse that has underperformed due to not being suited is just making it fit to suit one horse..which isn't objective or accurate
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And where's your evidence that "he isn't a stayer"; a running on 2nd in the KG, and a perfect record at distances over 20f over the stiffest tracks in the country otherwise?
Tell me again about objective and accurate.:)
 
reet hard said:
And where's your evidence that "he isn't a stayer"; a running on 2nd in the KG, and a perfect record at distances over 20f over the stiffest tracks in the country otherwise?
Tell me again about objective and accurate.:)
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list his 3m+ wins
which race did he win this week?
if he was a stayer why wasn't he in the GC?

i see no evidence he stays 3 miles

if you think Long Run is a 180+ horse then there's nowt i can do to change that view..you must have lost a fair bit of money on him though if you do believe it as he should be winning all his races with that lofty mark..expecially when yesterdays winner is a 168 horse
 
PRICEWISE2008 said:
I have taken leave of my senses..probably after backing 4 winners today and also had the Cockney Mackem backed at 25-1 (2nd) . Had gone a month without a winner till yesterday.

Am seriously considering backing 2 50-1 shots tomorrow- Cornas in the Johnny Henderson and Edgardo Sol in the Vincent O Brien. Somebody please convince otherwise:blink::blink: No drink taken as yet either:D
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Hit the crossbar with Edgardo Sol yesterday..will go in again today at Uttox with Major Malarkey/Ballyfoy.

An added bonus to have decent racing again today..some week it's been:cool:
 
RT has had one try over three miles so that's hardly conclusive. I don't think the horse particulary enjoys the track but he stayed on well under a genius ride. You're not telling me he wouldn't stay three more furlongs on a course like Ascot or Kempton where he is far more at home.
 
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I see no evidence that he doesn't ( a view supported by his jockey after the KG), yet you're selling that run as ''evidence'?
Given the way he finished in the strongest run race on Thursday, over a stiff 21f, I'd say there's every chance he'll be a leading contender for next season's KG, also.
 
There's a big difference between just staying three miles and a Gold Cup. One Man stayed 3 miles on his head but couldn't get up the hill. If he were mine and I only had two or three horses I'd sooner go for a race I had a 5/1 chance in than one where I'd be 14s. No brainer if your dream is a Festival winner.
 
there is no way RT has shown his best in the KG imo..his best form is at shorter where his best ratings are..and thats what we are talking about..using his rating to put a lofty rating on LR over a trip that is not RT best.

like i say..if he is a good marker at 3 miles then LR is a 180 horse..but to those believing that rating off RT..a very expensive mistake imo
 
The KG was not his best run, but that's because Long Run was in the better position throughout and was slightly flattered by his superiority that day. It had nothing to do with any lack of stamina on Riverside Theatre's part.
 
Euronymous said:
The KG was not his best run, but that's because Long Run was in the better position throughout and was slightly flattered by his superiority that day. It had nothing to do with any lack of stamina on Riverside Theatre's part.
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you don't know that for a fact though..but you have answered correctly..it wasn't RT best run..so why was LR rated off him by people?..it would be fair to say Riverside was probably 5 to 10 below his best when stretched out in that KG

which was my point..the staying thing is relative anyway..every horse stays 5 miles..some do it faster though
 
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I heard this morning that Brindisi Breeze was the first ever start to finish winner of that race. Says something if true. Definitely like his attitude.
 
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