Cheltenham Festival 2018 Antepost Bets

I don't mean to sound condescending but it's harder to make money gambling if you have financial constraints and are trying to balance family, work, mortgage etc. I sincerely wish you the best of luck DJ but if you're in a position where you feel the missus would leave you were to discover how much you'd bet I suggest you take a step back, talk to her and explain it's your passion then come up with a plan which will best allow you to enjoy the sport without the risk and therefore hopefully without the suspicious & judging behavior from those close to you.

Agreed that, while an interesting topic, it should be moved out of the AP thread.
 
I won't post anything else after this as to not take the thread completely off topic, but thanks for the replies.

In terms of taking a step back I don't feel i need to, obviously don't win every race but I'm certainly not losing anything major. Its as someone above said, learn from Your mistakes and don't make them again. I.e backing a horse that a never jumped a fence 'because I like him'

In terms of the Mrs, I probably don't tell her to just save an argument. That's probably because she's blinkered to horse racing as it 'cruel'. Certainly ear ache I can do without. Especially with the stresses of working every hour to get this deposit together.

In terms of what i'm good at, probably graded races, no doubt I'm in profit for these this season. Bad spots, liking a horse too much, and distinguishing between it needing a run, and that's the max of the ability. That I'm sure will come more in time.

Thanks for all taking the time anyway, still learning a damn lot about this game, surprising how much there is. And Danny, I'll let you know tomorrow about Mohayeed, got some rare and much needed time off this week.
 
Double J, I think there was a thread started a while back - probably a goodish while back - which was long the lines of "Things you know now, you wished you'd known when you started betting". I'm paraphrasing, but that was the gist of it. You might find some things in there, that you can take on board.
 
LUKE said:
Only saw the race on Sunday night -he is horrendous-unnatural tail carriage.
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I was deeply unimpressed myself.

It was a leap of faith at the time. As someone once said, the worst leap you can take is the one that requires a step in the middle.
 
I'd say they went there on Saturday knowing he had zero chance of winning and he won't be trying to win anything before summer jumping starts.
 
Danny said:
If you want to test yourself a bit Double J take a look at a horse called Mohaayed and try and come up with how you might rate him and then ask if he's really a 33/1 NRNB shot for a county hurdle if lining up. If you take a look and see what you come up with and I'll post my views as to why I think its more than possible he still has a few pounds in hand and could be a contender for the county.
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Amour De Nuit represents his form on Saturday in the Scottish County Hurdle. Presuming he goes as Nicholls won the race last year so likes to target it with a nice type (Diego Du Charmil)
 
Started going through each race in detail. Just backed Western Ryder at 33's for the Supreme. Hopefully he'll win his prep later this week and there will be no silly thoughts of going for the Ballymore. He has strong course form and I'm happy to put a line through his Sandown run.

I'm not big for a/p post bets a long way out but did have a dabble at a few multiples. Two of them are struggling thanks to Sharjah and Finians Oscar disappointing, however I do have a win treble on Buveur D'air, Samcro & Cause Of Causes still going. Watching Samcro **** up at 2 miles at the weekend was bittersweet.
 
I wouldn't give up on Sharjah, Bear.

I plan to look a bit more closely at last weekend's race tomorrow when I get the hard copy form in but I honestly don't think Sharjah (or Real Steel) was anywhere near form. I think it's possible both of them weren't over their previous run or had maybe been given an easy time since then because it was such a fast run race and they've been looked after. I fully expect the real Sharjah to turn up in March.
 
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I've taken a couple more a/p bets today.

Scarlet Dragon 33/1 (nrnb/bog) for the Supreme

Rhinestone 10/1 (nrnb/bog) for the Bumper

Scarlet Dragon's peak Flat rating for me is about 110 so if he can translate that class across he must have a chance. He makes his debut this weekend and will almost certainly shorten up if he wins.

I suspect I might find myself chipping away at Rhinestone over the coming weeks, unless his price takes a sudden tumble. I have a huge time for his run against Blackbow at the weekend and it may be that one or other of this pair wins. I thought Rhinestone looked the better prospect on the day having been maybe a wee bit over-confidently ridden and closing down the winner after giving him first run. He ran the course and distance (without having to negotiate any hurdles, mind) 0.3 seconds faster than Supasundae. I also believe the rails for that race were dolled out a little but I'll need to check the replays to make sure of that.
 
Euronymous said:
Full up to date list including top up's.

Supreme - Sharjah 12/1
Arkle - Finian's Oscar 20/1 :(
Ultima - Singlefarmpayment 16/1
CH - Melon 25/1
CH - Yorkhill 10/1

Ballymore - On the Blind Side 10/1
RSA - Monalee 10/1 and 6/1 NRNB
RSA - Finian's Oscar 16/1
RSA - Invitation Only 10/1 NRNB
RSA - Al Boum Photo 14/1 NRNB
QM - Min 8/1

JLT - Al Boum Photo 9/1 NRNB
JLT - Invitation Only 14/1 and 6/1 NRNB
Ryanair - Top Notch 16/1 and 5/1 NRNB
Ryanair - Disko 10/1 NRNB
Coney Island 40
Stayers - L'Ami Serge 16/1 and 10/1 NRNB
Stayers - Penhill 10/1 NRNB

Triumph - Farclas 20/1
GC - Might Bite 12/1 and 7/2 NRNB
GC - Yorkhill 12/1 :(
GC - Djakadam 42

Any Race - Finian's Oscar 9/1
Any Race - Min 6/1
Any Race - Al Boum Photo 14/1

Doubles:
UDS (Clarence) Singlefarmpayment (Ultima) 4/6 & 14/1
UDS (Clarence) Fountains Windfall (RSA) 8/11 & 7/1
UDS (Clarence) Supersundae (Stayers) 8/15 & 7/1

Singlefarmpayment (Ultima) Willoughby Court (JLT) 10/1 & 4/1 NRNB
Samcro (Bally) Presenting Percy (RSA) 2/1 & 7/1
Buveur D'air (CH) Death Duty (JLT) 3/1 & 8/1 :(
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Added recently:
Jury Duty (NHC) 14s
Barney Dwan (Close Bros) 12s ew NRNB

Getabird (Ballymore) 17 (just in case Samcro goes for the Supreme)

Coney Island (Ryanair) top up's at 14s ew and 11s ew NRNB
Tully East (Plate) 10s NRNB
The Storyteller (Plate) 14s ew NRNB
Irish Roe (Mares Novice) 16s ew

Trix: Footpad (Arkle) evs, Altior (QM) 11/8, UDS (Ryanair) 3s
 
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Desert Orchid said:
I've taken a couple more a/p bets today.

Scarlet Dragon 33/1 (nrnb/bog) for the Supreme

Rhinestone 10/1 (nrnb/bog) for the Bumper

Scarlet Dragon's peak Flat rating for me is about 110 so if he can translate that class across he must have a chance. He makes his debut this weekend and will almost certainly shorten up if he wins.

I suspect I might find myself chipping away at Rhinestone over the coming weeks, unless his price takes a sudden tumble. I have a huge time for his run against Blackbow at the weekend and it may be that one or other of this pair wins. I thought Rhinestone looked the better prospect on the day having been maybe a wee bit over-confidently ridden and closing down the winner after giving him first run. He ran the course and distance (without having to negotiate any hurdles, mind) 0.3 seconds faster than Supasundae. I also believe the rails for that race were dolled out a little but I'll need to check the replays to make sure of that.
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Which book is going both NRNB and Best Odds, DO??
 
Desert Orchid said:
He ran the course and distance (without having to negotiate any hurdles, mind) 0.3 seconds faster than Supasundae. I also believe the rails for that race were dolled out a little but I'll need to check the replays to make sure of that.
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"He" should read "The winner", rather than implying Rhinestone but it's a fairly moot point.
 
Best multiple I can muster is this Yankee:

Footpad 6/1
Cause Of Causes 6/1
Cracking Smart 14/1
Might Bite 8/1
 
I had some excellent positions in my festival accas with the anchor leg of 2 of them coming when Man City were going to win the FA cup in May....
 
Best Multiples running are this E/W Lucky 15 - Just a pity one of them looks in the wrong race:

Footpad 5/1
Black Corton 25/1
Min (Ryanair :() 10/1
Apples Shakira 4/1

Then I have a €10 Straight 4 fold to win €1k that still has a realistic chance with all 4 looking to be in the right races

Footpad 15/8
Buvair D'air 7/4
Samcro 2/1
Min 3/1
 
Haven't been keeping up to date posting all my ante-bets but have had a bit of a splurge on singles in a couple of the handicaps prior to them being announced.

The County 2 large bets (large for me anyway) on Flying Tiger 33/1 and Mohaayed 33/1

The Brown Plate three decent size bets Le prezien 20's Foxtail Hill 33's and Long House Hall 25's

Smaller win bet in the boys race on Le Patriote 14/1

All NRNB.

Also decided with Call me a Lord bowing out of Champion Hurdle contention (not that he was ever really in it) I've had a large e/w bet on Melon in the w/o market at 7's.
 
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