I thought as I'd posed a bit of a question to Double J about a horse called Mohaayed a few days back about what rating you would give him, that it was pretty unfair as I don't really have an answer myself :lol: other than I know he has a fair bit in hand. Not being one to give advice as I'm not too far removed from the kid who thought backing the first favourite at Bloemfontein was the next big thing
I thought if I could translate some of the workings into words along with some other bits and bobs there might at least be a useful point or two and if it highlights a well handicapped horse for the festival then so be it.
The first thing that will grab your attention when looking at (going to call him Mo for ease) Mo is that he's been done by Irish Roe last time out and that one has been raised significantly since. I'll use this as the primary line of form to highlight his chances. The basic premise is that he's narrowly been defeated (for now we'll take the Jockeys claim into account) conceding 4lb to a horse who after just one more run is rated in the mid 140's and he's rated 139 still. The form has been franked as they say. It might well be franked again when Amour De Nuit runs in the Scottish County Hurdle this weekend. This is the sort of thing Joe public will pick up on and its an easy enough point of view that your average Morning line pundit can roll it the viewers without thinking and sound like that they are in the know. Joe public might get lucky this weekend with regards Amour de nuit as I'd picked up on this line of form weeks ago but Amour De nuit was not a horse I'd have been following from it.
Its always important to watch the replays when taking a view and try to make a more informed judgement of the collateral lines. Amour de nuit travelled very strongly in the race too keen by far and found little in a finish. These sort of horses I tend to avoid as more often than not they don't pay. However from my days of dabbling in the dark arts (speed figures) and it was only dabbling so not an area I'm strong in I seem to recall that Musselburgh was one of the fastest hurdle courses in the country. I recall thinking that if you ever had a horse who you thought may be suited to a 1m6f hurdle then Musselburgh was probably your best hope. So perhaps he sends it here and along with the Irish roe form and the "Paul Nicholls doesn't go to Scotland for the battered Mars bars" type opinions then he could be a popular winner but I wouldn't expect too much of a price. The only reason I point this out is that I won't be doing cartwheels if he wins nor will I be reaching for the shotgun if he gets beaten out of sight. It is important to always take a balanced view of collateral form lines working out, don't get carried away with good ones and don't get too despondent with the bad.
A closer look at Mo's performance tells you he was probably a bit unlucky to get beat against Irish roe. He's got the last 3 hurdles wrong and made a complete mess of one of those. He was making rapid headway at the finish and in another yard or so would have caught the well handicapped filly. Horses that hurdle badly can and generally do hurdle badly again however in this instance I'm prepared to cut the horse a bit of slack. It was the first time he'd been ridden by claimer Bridget Andrews and the worst he's jumped. He seemed to jump a lot better at Kempton next time when back under his regular pilot. So potentially if he'd cleared the last 3 hurdles better then he'd have beaten Irish Roe conceding 4lbs. Taking into account that Irish roe given age and experience could be improving from race to race anyway but then the same could be said for Mo. So a horse that could have beaten Irish Roe conceding 4lbs and she's now rated 144 after just one more run could give you an approximate figure of 149 which would be 10lb in hand of his current mark of 139. That's approximate and still allowing for Bridgets claim being worthwhile where as you could on this occasion have taken it as a penalty. Also the way he finished could suggest that on a stiffer track like Cheltenham and perhaps a stronger pace he'd be worth a little more.
To work from one line of form is always dangerous/insane so its always best to look for secondary lines that back the opinion up. For this we'll use the Christmas Hurdle. Straight away the lazy will utter the words of flattered by proximity which will always be a case when a low rated animal take on higher rated animals in a small field and very often it can be the case but its always best to take a closer look. As I haven't actually worked this out yet and I'm thinking as I type I'm not sure if it will actually work out well or not but we'll give it a go.
I'll just for now use a 1lb per length ratio to try and glean some sort of idea. There is somewhere a universal guide to weight to lengths and from memory its either 0.9 or 1.1lb but I laugh at such things. Whilst having a rule of thumb to work to is a must to suggest its an accurate science is fairly ridiculous in my eyes. I dare say some will disagree but to me it can only ever be a ball park area of judgment. To anyone who disagrees or try's to convince you that it is the "law" I'd simply take a step back and apply a bit of common sense. I always look at things like this. If Eddie Halls and Louis Theroux were asked to carry a certain weight a certain distance would it have an equal effect ? Of course not. So why should things be different when dealing with horses. Some horses are your Eddie Halls ( Denman, Kingscliff ) and some your Louis Theroux's or Ronnie Corbett might have been more apt ( Lady Rebecca, Dom samuri ) its simply can't be an exact science. The same as carrying weight in bad ground. Carry a bag of cement 50 yards on a concrete floor and then try and carry it through wet sand or mud. That's before we even get into the weight of the jockey v's the saddle weights issue. We need that rule of thumb to work to but I'm not to sure of its value in reality but its narrowly favourable to pondering the imponderables until the dawn of time. If anyone is still certain that its a rock solid thing then take an even wider view that in reality we are 6 billion talking monkeys on a spinning rock in an infinite mass of nothingness discussing which horse can run fastest around a track. How certain can we be of anything ? Some days I'm not sure even that I exist and that I'm not just a hallucination of some young lady's magic mushroom fuelled fantasy...erm back to handicapping then.
How mo fared in the Christmas Hurdle.
Beaten 6L by 169 rated Boover brings him out at 163
Beaten 4L by 163 rated The new one brings him out at 159
Beat 146 Rated Chesterfield 4L brings him out at 150.
Hurrah! The biggest certainty ever seen in the county hurdle..yeah not that simple is it. Boover won as he liked so no point trying to take a rating from him. Chesterfield is probably better on better ground and had only run 7 days earlier so I don't like rating through him. The new one however was flat out and can be used as a reliable yardstick however he certainly hasn't run up to his official rating here and has certainly run below par the question being, by how much?. If we look at the New ones other efforts this season and see if we can get some sort of idea of where he is at.
I'd probably start with his most recent outing in the Champion hurdle trial he's conceded 6lb to 156 rated Ch'tibello and narrowly got the better of him in the final strides (it still hurts). That brings him out quite high but taking a more realistic view from Unison back in third I have him coming out at around 152 which I'm far more comfortable with.
In the international at Cheltenham you could come up with all sorts of ratings through various horses but its notable that given Ch'tibello raced off the same terms and given he was beaten slightly further but hampered then you could take it they've run to exactly the same level and I'd be happy to suggest given the bunched finish and lack of pace making any rating suspect that I'd happily go with a mark in the low 150's again.
His Welsh Champion hurdle conceding 8lb to 147 rated Clyne brings him out at 155. I'm actually likely to think this run was a lot better than that and I think Clyne has run his absolute socks off to the point where it broke him as he hasn't gone a yard since however I'll settle for 155.
The New ones run in the Greatwood you'd be hard pushed to say he hasn't run right up to his mark. Given the winner and the second there bagged the Golden highway and its probably flattered them both. Old guard in 3rd is as reliable yard stick as one could wish for and TNO has gone down to him narrowly conceding lumps. I'm not looking for his best performance though I'm in search of his worst.
If we said that looking through that lot The New one has been 152 at worst and adjust his mark at Kempton to that then we could rate Mo' at 148 not to far removed from what I had him at after the Irish roe run. Flattered by that ?...hardly!. If you then watched the replays of the Christmas hurdle if anything was flattered by proximities it certainly wasn't Mo. The race was run at a quick, slow, quick tempo in the way that the New one has set off at a gallop slowed it up before trying to kick for home off the front end. The worst thing that you can do in these situations is let the leader snatch a couple of lengths whilst you get caught napping as the ground is difficult to make back up. This is what happened with mo' although in fairness there was never really any intention of making an effort to win the race. He was there to race for third pick up 12k and hopefully not finish too close to the big boys as to get whacked by the handicapper. Plan executed brilliantly by the jockey. Evidence of this when the New one started to run flat out out Mo's jockey sat still keeping an eye on Chesterfield. When he did finally consent to show a bit of effort in the saddle Mo' put Chesterfield away quite easily and as he jumped the last the jockey has a cheeky look over his shoulder to see Chesterfield is beat and then eases down. If anything after watching this a couple of times I think it more than likely points to him having a stone up his sleeve but I'll settle for my magic number of 10lb.
In terms of ever sizing one up for Cheltenham its always nice too see course form and spring form. He was beat 3 lengths off a few lb's lower than he is now in last years County. Some might say if he couldn't win last year why can he win off a higher mark now? Well quite simply he was a novice of very few runs last year and being thrown into the carnage of a Cheltenham handicap is a baptism of fire. With that and his run in the Scottish Champion hurdle making him less wet behind the ears now, it offers hope and also that still a young horse on the up, should be and looks as if he's going to be a very progressive type.
I've included him in some small multi's for the festival thus far and nothing really serious as although I've done quite a write up on him he's not a standout by any means. I'd find horses that I think are well handicapped every day and I dare say I could find another 10 to make a case for in the County itself. I've just really posted the thought process for someone like Double J or anyone of even less experience to have a look at and see if there is anything they can take from it. More to the point if any one fancies giving me a pointer as to anything I'm getting insanely wrong then they are more than welcome. There will always be different workings for everyone as to a horses mark and as said I don't think its an exact science but if you can identify 33/1 shots that you think are potentially well handicapped then I don't think you can go too far wrong. I like the Bruce Lee theory of "concentrate on the finger and you'll miss all the heavenly glory". In others words peoples views on the details of the workings will vary but I think anyone would find it hard to go against the view that the, "Heavenly Glory" in this case is that Mohaayed is potentially very well handicapped and available at a decent price somewhere soon.
That's the best I can manage through the misty night shift fog of a sleep deprived mind but to any beginners out there.. come handicapping ! It certainly beats trying to fathom graded races and trying to decipher the Di Mullins code
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