Cheltenham Festival Handicaps 2018

The Close Brothers Novice Handicap Chase has been a very compressed event since its introduction at the Festival, and I've been taking a look through the entries today.

Clearly there is still a chance to be re-assessed before the weights come out, but last season, the bottom weight (Burtons Well) was number 27 on the entry list, in a race where the handicap spread (excluding claims) was a mere 5lbs.

Based on their current marks (plus an educated guess at the Irish ones), horse number 27 this year will land around Drumcliff, and allowing for another five runners latitude, would take us down to Got Away. All other things being equal, I figure the following horses currently trading in places at 16/1 or less in places, are at risk of not making the cut:

Ballyhill
Mister Whitaker
Mount Mews
Geordie Des Champs
Goose Man
Livelovelaugh
Patrick's Park


It's perhaps not such a drama if you're betting with a firm who are NRNB on all races, but if you're not, then it's perhaps worth bearing this in mind.

Usual caveats about me potentially talking shi*te apply. :cool:
 
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Yep. Only 145 and below are accepted. Last year's top-weight was 142.

Here's the top 27 as I see them:

<style type="text/css"><!--td {border: 1px solid #ccc;}br {mso-data-placement:same-cell;}--></style>[TABLE="width: 0"]
<colgroup><col style="width: 243px"><col width="100"></colgroup><tbody>[TR]
[TD]ADRIEN DU PONT (FR)[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]145[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]ANY SECOND NOW (IRE)[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]145[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]DEMI SANG (FR)[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]145[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]KALONDRA (IRE)[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]145[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]PEREGRINE RUN (IRE)[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]145[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]RAMSES DE TEILLEE (FR)[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]145[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]SIZING TENNESSEE (IRE)[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]145[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]TESTIFY (IRE)[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]145[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]TREE OF LIBERTY (IRE)[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]145[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]LE ROCHER (FR)[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]144[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]TOMMY SILVER (FR)[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]144[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]BARNEY DWAN (IRE)[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]143[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]DE PLOTTING SHED (IRE)[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]143[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]DIEGO DU CHARMIL (FR)[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]143[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]KEEPER HILL (IRE)[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]143[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]RATHER BE (IRE)[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]143[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]ART OF PAYROLL (GER)[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]142[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]CONRAD HASTINGS (IRE)[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]142[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]MOVEWITHTHETIMES (IRE)[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]142[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]OZZIE THE OSCAR (IRE)[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]142[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]ROCKLANDER (IRE)[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]142[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]THE UNIT (IRE)[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]142[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]ASTHURIA (FR)[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]141[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]BORN SURVIVOR (IRE)[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]141[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]DELEGATE[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]141[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]DIVINE SPEAR (IRE)[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]141[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]DRUMCLIFF (IRE)[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]141[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
 
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Think 'The Unit' is running tomorrow.

FWIW Harry Derham on the FFP this week was saying not to give up on 'Move with the times' yet, and that there's a big race in him.
 
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Grasshopper said:
Yep. Only 145 and below are accepted. Last year's top-weight was 142.

Here's the top 27 as I see them:

<style type="text/css"><!--td {border: 1px solid #ccc;}br {mso-data-placement:same-cell;}--></style>[TABLE="width: 0"]
<colgroup><col style="width: 243px"><col width="100"></colgroup><tbody>[TR]
[TD]ADRIEN DU PONT (FR)[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]145[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]ANY SECOND NOW (IRE)[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]145[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]DEMI SANG (FR)[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]145[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]KALONDRA (IRE)[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]145[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]PEREGRINE RUN (IRE)[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]145[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]RAMSES DE TEILLEE (FR)[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]145[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]SIZING TENNESSEE (IRE)[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]145[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]TESTIFY (IRE)[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]145[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]TREE OF LIBERTY (IRE)[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]145[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]LE ROCHER (FR)[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]144[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]TOMMY SILVER (FR)[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]144[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]BARNEY DWAN (IRE)[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]143[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]DE PLOTTING SHED (IRE)[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]143[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]DIEGO DU CHARMIL (FR)[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]143[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]KEEPER HILL (IRE)[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]143[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]RATHER BE (IRE)[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]143[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]ART OF PAYROLL (GER)[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]142[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]CONRAD HASTINGS (IRE)[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]142[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]MOVEWITHTHETIMES (IRE)[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]142[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]OZZIE THE OSCAR (IRE)[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]142[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]ROCKLANDER (IRE)[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]142[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]THE UNIT (IRE)[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]142[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]ASTHURIA (FR)[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]141[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]BORN SURVIVOR (IRE)[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]141[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]DELEGATE[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]141[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]DIVINE SPEAR (IRE)[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]141[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]DRUMCLIFF (IRE)[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]141[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
Click to expand...
Barney Dwan and the plotting Shed immediately catch the eye as ones who's trainers have been somewhat protecting their mark all season. But reflected as obviously as that at the head of the betting.
 
Double Handful said:
Think 'The Unit' is running tomorrow.

FWIW Harry Derham on the FFP this week was saying not to give up on 'Move with the times' yet, and that there's a big race in him.
Click to expand...

He's the one. Has the profile of one laid out for this, although his attitude does give me concern.
 
The Unit’s attitude seems fine, but he probably won’t complete at Cheltenham if he jumps anything like he did today.

Hoping Cyrname’s performance (the shuddering error four out apart) encourages connections to run Terrefort in the JLT.
 
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I wonder if Cyrname was hurting after that mistake. He seemed to drag his hind legs through just about every fence after it.
 
Grasshopper said:
The Unit’s attitude seems fine, but he probably won’t complete at Cheltenham if he jumps anything like he did today.

Hoping Cyrname’s performance (the shuddering error four out apart) encourages connections to run Terrefort in the JLT.
Click to expand...

I was referring to Movewiththetimes


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Grasshopper said:
The Unit’s attitude seems fine, but he probably won’t complete at Cheltenham if he jumps anything like he did today.

Hoping Cyrname’s performance (the shuddering error four out apart) encourages connections to run Terrefort in the JLT.
Click to expand...
Does Terrefort need it soft?
 
All his form is on Soft, and Henderson seems reticent to run him on quicker ground at the Festival.

Think it's poncing out a bit myself, and I'm hoping that Munir/Souede can be convinced to run him. No drama if they don't - other than I'll have done my stones. :lol:
 
The third in that race at Sandown is of interest in the 4 miler. He was given an easy time and wasn’t too far away.


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I’d appreciate a few views on this, ideally from those who’ve gone about it both ways:-

Is there any advantage to going through the handicaps in advance?

I’ve always left it until final decs due to doubts about running and the extra places/concessions. I’m thinking of doing it now (or when the weights come out) to try and identify value now but it’s a lot of work for potentially no reward.


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Early research means getting a jump on prices, but carries more risk, as there’s greater guesswork involved in determining handicap-marks, top-weights etc. Flip side is that it is a lot of work, which is potentially rendered useless at the declaration stage.

You probably need to be a bit OCD/geek/nerd about it, to do the work before the weights or decs are known.

Guilty as charged.
 
TheBear said:
Is there any advantage to going through the handicaps in advance?
Click to expand...

Should definitely mean you have more knowledge, but as I've spent the last 20 years finding out, knowing lots doesn't necessarily make you any more likely to back winners, or any more-likely to make the game pay, than Rita, who swears by backing longest travellers after buying The Sun each morning.

Having said all that, being the shrewdie that you clearly are, I'd get started early if I was you. :)
 
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Good question. It made me check back through my files. I did some ante-post last year in the handicaps but it looks like it was at the 5-day stage, presumably once most of the races were starting to look more settled. (Did me fvck all good, mind although I ended up doing well in the handicaps with my morning-of-the-race bets.) I don't see any record of ante-post bets for the handicaps in previous seasons.

It does strike me as an awful lot of work unless you keep a database (which I don't) of well-handicapped horses.

Looking through the files, it appears my established method is to have most of the non-handicaps sorted in advance (quite easily done as only half-a-dozen in any race is in with a serious shout), leaving time to study the overnight decs - they do need time.

I should add that I have two or three handicappers in mind I will definitely be backing regardless of their race or how they figure in my ratings. They're ones who ran in handicaps last season and should/could have won and will almost certainly have been put away in order to finish unfinished business.
 
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TheBear said:
I’d appreciate a few views on this, ideally from those who’ve gone about it both ways:-

Is there any advantage to going through the handicaps in advance?

I’ve always left it until final decs due to doubts about running and the extra places/concessions. I’m thinking of doing it now (or when the weights come out) to try and identify value now but it’s a lot of work for potentially no reward.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

Its the first season I've attempted any bets in handicaps ante-post so I guess the proof of the pudding is in the eating although I certainly couldn't draw any serious conclusions from 1 seasons attempts. I think I've probably backed 5 or 6 horses in handicaps so far 2 large bets (by my standards) and 4 medium sized wagers, those would all be under NRNB. I have 2 smaller wagers without that protection and included some of the main wagers in e/w multis as well.

Is there a benefit to it ? I'm not sure myself. A race I haven't looked at was the Close Brothers but I think it was Grass who made the point that quite a few at the front of the betting may well fail to make the cut. I haven't checked this myself but if that is the case what a fantastic opportunity to attack a market.

The key to all of these I think is the NRNB protection with no risk attached to your own bet turning up its a great advantage. I'd take price over extra places any day of the week so personally I don't worry too much about that. If on the day I can get 33/1 with 4 places or 28's with 6 places I'll always take the 33's. If I was thinking as negative as I'll think what I'm backing may finish 6th then I'd probably have to ask myself again why I'm backing it in the first place. If extra places are available at the same price then its a no brainer but other than that I don't consider them a factor.

I suppose the main thing is although the bookies factor in the NRNB to some extent there are 80 odd runners for the County which will be cut to 26 (I think) on the day. You'd imagine most will shorten up a bit just at the declaration stage. I sort of disagree that there is that much work involved. If you have a horse that you think is well handicapped and is available at a big price that's fairly certain to get in then it has to be worth a wager. Some people will still be backing some of the first few in the betting in the main graded events I think most of those will certainly be available bigger on the day.

Some races I will leave until the day the Coral Cup for example is a race I use a system for (not one I came up with ) and it has to be done after the decs or at least the weights have come out. I'm not normally a system backer but I've seen this over the years produce a very productive shortlist of horses for the race.

Its all a matter of preference really. If all bets were under proper Ante-post rules then I doubt I'd hold many bets and certainly non as large as I do. The ones I've taken I either expect to get refunds on or they go off at a shorter price so in my eyes that's as good as you can hope for.
 
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Danny said:
Some races I will leave until the day the Coral Cup for example is a race I use a system for (not one I came up with ) and it has to be done after the decs or at least the weights have come out. I'm not normally a system backer but I've seen this over the years produce a very productive shortlist of horses for the race.
Click to expand...

Do tell. I love a good system.
 
Diamond Geezer said:
Put this one up three or four years ago which continued to make a profit, not sure on last year though as didn't keep a record. Easier to keep track of the relevant hosses before the race though with racecards printing details.

http://www.talkinghorses.co.uk/foru...em-for-the-Festival&highlight=system+festival
Click to expand...

I actually remember this being copied over at our place DG (you were actually credited with it) I thought it was a brilliant idea but never followed through backing it when Jezki,WW and Holywell won on that first day spent much of the next few months kicking myself haha. Good to see the original discussions that took place. Cheers.
 
I recently had my first proper look through The Ultima. I'm drawn to Shantou Flyer. His Cheltenham record reads 1F1422. He's only just turned 8 years of age, but plenty of excellent form to put him in with a shout of getting in the frame. He gave a lot of weight away to Big River when second the last day at Kelso. Overall, I'm happy with Shantou Flyer progress this season. He's shown he's worth his salt since the cheek pieces were applied. A real searching gallop next month and he'll be going and staying-on when many others are going backwards.
 
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Diamond Geezer said:
Put this one up three or four years ago which continued to make a profit, not sure on last year though as didn't keep a record. Easier to keep track of the relevant hosses before the race though with racecards printing details.

http://www.talkinghorses.co.uk/foru...em-for-the-Festival&highlight=system+festival
Click to expand...

Yes; I really liked that one. Can we do it again this year please. And I must do my 'horses that have placed/won in previous years as well, but that's annoying as I always seem to overlook one that comes out and wins.
 
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