Cheltenham Festival Handicaps 2018

The Storyteller looks a great bet in the Ultima at 16/1. 7L behind Monalee in a G1 at Leopardstown and carries 11-1.


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Maxbet said:
The going stick on the Old course is 14.2 and 15.7 on the New, the Car park is 18.5....course has been frozen for the past week, and now it's got a lovely blanket of snow to keep it cold....Simon says it's going to rain Monday and the temperature is set to rise to +6....it's a nap that he has his fingers crossed.
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I think it’s only to snow there about now. It was fine there this morning anyway. They pulled off the covers this morning in anticipation of the snow later. Racing Post tweeted this earlier

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I like reading other peoples thoughts and looking at horses i might not have looked at.
I like the hcaps and trying to work something out.
The brons advisory is a race i like and ive done TRAFFIC FLUIDE 40/1.i have a suspicious mind and dont trust any trainers and my thoughts all season are that gary moore as run this horse in all the top races to get his hcap mark down which he has succeeded in doing and it will be off 145 and this could be a tight hcap if the topweights dont run.moore trained the runner up last year.
In the pertemps ive done GLENROE 10/1.
last year i noted it in 5th in a qualifier behind Isleofopendreams with Presenting percy in 4th only getting 3lb from PP.
Must have a good chance.
HUNTERS CALL 12/1 is one ive done in the county and i hope they dont switch to the coral cup although its NRNB .whichever race he runs in i will do him.
 
Kauto Abu said:
I think it’s only to snow there about now. It was fine there this morning anyway. They pulled off the covers this morning in anticipation of the snow later. Racing Post tweeted this earlier

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Lifted them because they don't want the snow to cover them...


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Just as well they covered, Taunton is approx 100 miles south and almost on the same longitude, and they've been frozen solid for a week!
 
Interesting stat from Gaulstats

The favourite has not won ANY of the last 36 Festival handicaps, hurdles or chases. :ninja:
 
Diamond Geezer said:
Interesting stat from Gaulstats

The favourite has not won ANY of the last 36 Festival handicaps, hurdles or chases. :ninja:
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This is interesting. There's 10 H'Caps a year so that's 3.6 years since a fav has won a H'Cap.
I had something like this in the back of my mind already, which is why I'm a little hesitant when jumping in when weights are released yesterday.
On horses like the Plotting Shed for example. Clearly has a favs chance and his mark has been protected all season, but he still has to go and win.
Punters who abhor trends will scoff at this, but for the handicaps at this point, they are races I'm less inclined to be excited about taking a price and beating the book, simply because the H'Caps are so ultra competitive, often with big priced winners and placed horses and history tells us that Favs have a terrible record.
 
My selections so far:

Ultima: Go Conquer
I'm actually very, very sweet on his chances, despite him being beaten in this last year, and being significantly worse off with SFP. I just think he is an improved animal this season, and felt he was given a hugely sympathetic ride in the old RP Chase at Kempton on Saturday. He jumps great (fall at Ascot two runs back was just unlucky), it's a race where you want to be prominent, and whilst the trainer is generally useless, he knows how to get one ready for this race. Soft ground is a mild concern, but regardless, I figure 25/1 is a great each-way price.


Close Brothers: Tree Of Liberty
Typically wide-open event, and therefore hard to be too dogmatic about many of them, but this one is at least guaranteed a run, should Kerry Lee consent to let him take his chance. TOL has been plying his trade at the minimum trip in chases to-date, and I think it is noteworthy that connections have forgone all other Festival options with the horse, and that this is his sole entry over 2m4f. He has hacked-up in two moderate races, which sandwiched his only 'disappointing' run, when he was comfortably despatched by Arkle third-fave Saint Calvados at Newbury - an outing which looks a great deal rosier now, given the exploits of SC in the Kingmaker. With no risk of Tree Of Life being re-directed to another race, and with him having fair 2m4f in the bag over hurdles (beat Burbank as a novice), I'm hoping this one can comfortably out-run odds of 25/1 (Sky, Sportsbook - as low as 12/1 in places).
 
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Go Conquer will almost certainly make my short list for the Ultima but with UTPT not there SFP should, in theory, have a free passage home.

However, SFP has also a few moderate runs to overcome and I'm not convinced he wasn't off in all of those races. There remains the chance that last year's race bottomed him as well as the winner.

For me, Go Conquer ran his race last season and has improved so far this season and that alone, since the handicapper raised him for Ascot, leaves him vulnerable to another UTPT/SFP type.

I haven't identified one yet, though!
 
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Bleu Et Rouge catching a lot of peoples attention in the Coral Cup....has a lot of weight!

For me, Voix Du Reve is creeping under the radar off a nice weight. Has a bit of class about him.
 
I was told a few days ago, A Hare Breath was the one to be on in the County Hurdle but despite my fiver each way - off his mark, with his profile and at his age, I am struggling to make a strong case for him. Can anyone else see something I can't?
 
I suspect he may be a morning glory*, Chef.

Pauling said last season, before the Greatwood I think, that he was the best horse in the yard.

I'm not convinced he wanted to run up the hill in the Greatwood.

*I wonder if Hendo's Verdana Blue (sounds like an entry for Crufts) is the same. Hendo has said more than once that she works like a champion hurdler at home but notable wins are conspicuous by their absence. She may put that right when the money is genuinely down.
 
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hezz said:
Bleu Et Rouge catching a lot of peoples attention in the Coral Cup....has a lot of weight!.
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One part of this is certainly true, (with just the 14 entered :) ), JP wins The Coral Cup!!!

I like Alan King's River Frost myself, (appropriately named and could be a surprise package).

Forgive and forget the last pulled up effort, if he runs here he'll be A1. He was a good 9th in this race last season, (one of just four 5 year olds to contest the race). Now a year older which should help his cause. The break is perfect for him. He's done enough to make me believe he's probably better than what he's shown.
 
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I keep emphasising how much class is required to win these handicaps so I'm not surprised by this snippet from Timeform:

Last season, all the winners from the [handicap] hurdle races above went on to contest a Grade One on their next start which emphasises the level horses need to be capable of competing at. In addition, two of the victors (Supasundae and Presenting Percy) return to this year's festival at the top of Grade One markets.
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So bear in mind when looking for potential winners you're also looking for something likely to be better than a handicapper.

The same article went on:
[FONT=&quot]The 2017 running of both the Ultima and the Brown Plate saw the winners posting efforts that wouldn’t have been out of place in the related Grade Ones at that year’s festival. Indeed, the winner of the latter - [/FONT]Road to Respect[FONT=&quot] - is amongst the market principles for this season’s Gold Cup, while a third festival success for dual Ultima winner Un Temps Pour Tout would have been hard to discount had he not been ruled out through injury.[/FONT]
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So as I said at the time, the performance of UTPT under top weight marked him out as a potential Gold Cup winner.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
I suspect he may be a morning glory*, Chef.

Pauling said last season, before the Greatwood I think, that he was the best horse in the yard.

I'm not convinced he wanted to run up the hill in the Greatwood.

*I wonder if Hendo's Verdana Blue (sounds like an entry for Crufts) is the same. Hendo has said more than once that she works like a champion hurdler at home but notable wins are conspicuous by their absence. She may put that right when the money is genuinely down.
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I liked the look of Verdana Blue for the county (especially on likely better ground), however, don't think she's even entered, I've heard connections talking about a tilt at the Champion Hurdle.
 
My efforts at the Ultima have given me two of interest. Neither are reinventing the wheel. The Storyteller and Coo Star Sivola are the ones. I also like Minella Daddy but don’t think this will be his main target.


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Our very own Roddy Owen should be able to confirm the main target for Minella Daddy, TheBear.

His main problem for the Ultima is going to be getting into the race. He's #54, and I suspect it will be fully-subscribed, before it gets that far down the race-card.
 
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