Cheltenham Festival Handicaps 2018

Handicap marks up from the weekend

Coo Star Sivola (+7) 142
Doctor Bartolo (+5) 129
Indian Hawk (new) 136
Global Citizen (+19) 149
Master Dee (+7) 151
Redicean (+12) 149
 
Global Citizen (+19) 149 was very impressive at the weekend and it's going to be interesting to see what they do with him.
He has no entry for the Supreme or any other novice hurdle race. Instead his only 2 entries are the Imperial Cup at Sandown on Sat week (Currently 8/1 Fav) and then the County hurdle. He must be targeting the bonus linked to the 2 races?

Does he race off his old mark of 130 in the Imperial cup does anyone know?
 
Double Handful said:
Global Citizen (+19) 149 was very impressive at the weekend and it's going to be interesting to see what they do with him.
He has no entry for the Supreme or any other novice hurdle race. Instead his only 2 entries are the Imperial Cup at Sandown on Sat week (Currently 8/1 Fav) and then the County hurdle. He must be targeting the bonus linked to the 2 races?

Does he race off his old mark of 130 in the Imperial cup does anyone know?
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They will bypass Sandown and Cheltenham and go to Aintree
no chance on the new mark in any race at sandown or chelt
 
sunybay said:
They will bypass Sandown and Cheltenham and go to Aintree
no chance on the new mark in any race at sandown or chelt
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Yeah that's what I was thinking Sunny, but if 149 is a fair and true rating he'd have a sniff in the Supreme I'd have thought.
Was wondering if any chance they would (Or even if they could at this late stage) supplement him for the race?
 
Couldn't see him winning with what's likely to be around 11st in the County so how realistic is the chance of the bonus anyway ?
 
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GC would struggle to win the IC off that mark but even if he did he'd have a penalty and a short recovery time to overcome in the County.

It sounded last weekend that they wanted to mind the horse, as sunybay says.

Aintree gives them eight weeks' recovery time from Kempton.
 
wilsonl said:
Been confirmed he's going straight to Aintree anyhow.
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I'd imagine they wished they had entered him in the Supreme now. I know that connections of certain horse often say that Cheltenham is not the be all and end all, but let's be honest, it is! Certainly for a horse like this anyway imo. Winning a Supreme is light years ahead of winning the 2m Novice hurdle at Aintree in terms of prestige etc.
 
Double Handful said:
I'd imagine they wished they had entered him in the Supreme now. I know that connections of certain horse often say that Cheltenham is not the be all and end all, but let's be honest, it is! Certainly for a horse like this anyway imo. Winning a Supreme is light years ahead of winning the 2m Novice hurdle at Aintree in terms of prestige etc.
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But At Aintree has a chance
and in the Supreme, better horses to beat and course not sure to suit
 
sunybay said:
But At Aintree has a chance
and in the Supreme, better horses to beat and course not sure to suit
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Yes Sunny that's a fair point and I had noticed when looking at his back form that he has only ever run on flat tracks.
I was just thinking that if they've never tried him on undulating tracks, then what's to say he wouldn't act on it?
Maybe he doesn't go up and down the hills to well in his home work. He's only been with his new Trainer Pauling less than a month, but I'm sure they know from what they see at home. Anyway, it's a moot point now as bypassing the festival seems to be confirmed.
 
The trainer was saying the other day he'd probably go for the County with GC and he had an idea what the horse would be well handicapped off. 149 obviously wasn't "it" ! So I don't think it was worries over the track or owt just the fact he got whacked.
 
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TheBear said:
I’d appreciate a few views on this, ideally from those who’ve gone about it both ways:-

Is there any advantage to going through the handicaps in advance?

I’ve always left it until final decs due to doubts about running and the extra places/concessions. I’m thinking of doing it now (or when the weights come out) to try and identify value now but it’s a lot of work for potentially no reward.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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This being my first season trying to do the handicaps ante-post I'm starting to encounter another problem which is a similar problem that I'd normally get when tackling big handicaps on race day in the way of I could certainly make a case for half of the field which is even more exasperating when there are 80 odd declarations.

I've taken the decision to leave well alone now as I'm going to end up backing half a dozen before we get to the day. Most of the ones that are capturing my attention are all in the County and I'm hoping at least some of them defect to the Boys race. Project Bluebook is the latest one to get me interested hoping he swerves the County for something else though, but I've also had Master of Irony on my radar for a while.

My two main interests for the county I've taken both at 33/1 as already posted. Flying Tiger has already come in for some good support. I'm not completely against backing 1 or 2 more for the race at similar prices but as said I think i'll leave it to the day now.
 
I go through them at the initial stage, if nothing else; they form a useful data base. I use excel, I start with the official rating, then the Racing post rating. I add the difference to form a new rating...I add what I deem quantifiable value's (Lb's) for going, course, and distance (dosage) suitability....I then add any claimers weight allowance. I work my way left to right across the sheet.....I then array them to the final column....It serves well for seeking out value.
 
Maxbet said:
I go through them at the initial stage, if nothing else; they form a useful data base. I use excel, I start with the official rating, then the Racing post rating. I add the difference to form a new rating...I add what I deem quantifiable value's (Lb's) for going, course, and distance (dosage) suitability....I then add any claimers weight allowance. I work my way left to right across the sheet.....I then array them to the final column....It serves well for seeking out value.
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I've never really took any notice of RPR's even when I subscribed to the RP. I don't know why but I sort of associated it with old school punters who used to talk about spot form ( was it in the Sun? ) I never really took too much notice of that either. I wasn't really sure what an RPR was in truth I'm only presuming now that is similar to what I try and do myself which is decipher a value of what a line of form is actually worth against the official ratings. Like private handicappers. Do I presume its one/ a group of people who's opinions decide the ratings to give ? I then suppose it boils down to do you trust someone else's opinion to lay your money down upon, something I've never been comfortable with. I've come across quite a few people who are using RPR's and I suppose I should really start taking a bit of notice if only to compare to my own opinions.

I think at least the way your using them Max bet sounds sensible by taking other factors into account to adjust them. Just one question when you say you use the RPR do you use latest current rating ? Or best ratings or best rating achieved over the conditions I.e trip course e.t.c ?

Interesting mate cheer's.

Just had a quick squazz at my selections for the county looking at RPR's

Flying Tiger OR 140 RPR 151 +11lb
Mohaayed OR 139 RPR 145 + 6lb

is that how you are using them to get your base rate figure before adjustments ?
 
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I'm surprised to learn you lend so little importance to RPRs, Danny.

While I compile and rely much more heavily on my own ratings, I'm always interested in a second (and/or third - Timeform) opinion, to see how much of a difference there is. If there's a huge difference I might investigate further to see if I or they may have missed something.

RPRs strike me as much more reliable since Steve Mason took over. Originally under Dominic Gardiner-Hill (the new chief BHA handicapper) I couldn't agree with his ratings. It wasn't hard to work out his thinking and I couldn't take his work too seriously.

I once subscribed to Timeform (during an enforced extended absence through ill-health from work and needed to pass the time) and found them disastrous. I suspect they have improved a fair bit in the last 30 years, though, and recent sectional analysis appears to be better informing them. But I still like to know how they measure up compared with my own.

It all boils down to 'each to their own', I suppose, and if your own ways work for you then stick with them.

I know I do, but I learned a long time ago that being open to others' ideas is no bad thing.
 
Maxbet said:
I go through them at the initial stage, if nothing else; they form a useful data base. I use excel, I start with the official rating, then the Racing post rating. I add the difference to form a new rating...I add what I deem quantifiable value's (Lb's) for going, course, and distance (dosage) suitability....I then add any claimers weight allowance. I work my way left to right across the sheet.....I then array them to the final column....It serves well for seeking out value.
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We've probably talked about this in the dim and distant past Max, but I take a very similar approach. Come Festival week doing the handicaps properly is a lot of work so I prefer to get on to it when the weights are out. I'll aim to have it all done by the end of the weekend. I'd also say I really enjoy going through it. For me it's all part of the Festival experience. I think I may have said this to you at the old place in the distant past Bear?

The next stage for me is to apply other race specific factors to come up with a shortlist to select from over the next week. Usually each shortlist ends up in single figures from where I've assumed the cutoff, but not always. I may have two or three nrnb ante post bets at this stage, and I'll usually end up with three each way bets in each of the handicaps, all of which I genuinely think can win and aren't just running for place money.

Having 48 hour decs this year will help massively with the work as come Tuesday theres a lot of selecting and backing to do for four days, but now we have the extra day it gives the potential to eak out some no risk value before the market adjusts to the weight of money and plots being backed. This is definitely something to consider in terms of timing of bets, and once final decs are out it will pay to get those on you think will be backed early. The others can wait for the day and BOG.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I'm surprised to learn you lend so little importance to RPRs, Danny.

While I compile and rely much more heavily on my own ratings, I'm always interested in a second (and/or third - Timeform) opinion, to see how much of a difference there is. If there's a huge difference I might investigate further to see if I or they may have missed something.

RPRs strike me as much more reliable since Steve Mason took over. Originally under Dominic Gardiner-Hill (the new chief BHA handicapper) I couldn't agree with his ratings. It wasn't hard to work out his thinking and I couldn't take his work too seriously.

I once subscribed to Timeform (during an enforced extended absence through ill-health from work and needed to pass the time) and found them disastrous. I suspect they have improved a fair bit in the last 30 years, though, and recent sectional analysis appears to be better informing them. But I still like to know how they measure up compared with my own.

It all boils down to 'each to their own', I suppose, and if your own ways work for you then stick with them.

I know I do, but I learned a long time ago that being open to others' ideas is no bad thing.
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Spot on Maurice. I like to use Steve Mason's ratings as a cross check for any big race I bet in. I place even higher faith in yours though!
 
Maruco said:
We've probably talked about this in the dim and distant past Max, but I take a very similar approach. Come Festival week doing the handicaps properly is a lot of work so I prefer to get on to it when the weights are out. I'll aim to have it all done by the end of the weekend. I'd also say I really enjoy going through it. For me it's all part of the Festival experience. I think I may have said this to you at the old place in the distant past Bear?

The next stage for me is to apply other race specific factors to come up with a shortlist to select from over the next week. Usually each shortlist ends up in single figures from where I've assumed the cutoff, but not always. I may have two or three nrnb ante post bets at this stage, and I'll usually end up with three each way bets in each of the handicaps, all of which I genuinely think can win and aren't just running for place money.

Having 48 hour decs this year will help massively with the work as come Tuesday theres a lot of selecting and backing to do for four days, but now we have the extra day it gives the potential to eak out some no risk value before the market adjusts to the weight of money and plots being backed. This is definitely something to consider in terms of timing of bets, and once final decs are out it will pay to get those on you think will be backed early. The others can wait for the day and BOG.
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I fully concur about enjoying looking through the handicaps, (which is what I've spent the last few snowed-in hours doing). I've written a few notes down, (not suicide ones but notes about horses! :)). Just hoping for the rub of the green as the saying goes. Have a great festival, Paul. I'll message you next time I'm Cheltenham bound, cheers. (Oh and Shantou Flyer is my dark horse tip in The Ultima, watch this space). Martin
 
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Really interesting stuff from everyone. The level of detail people go into is quite something and I wish I could do the same. Family commitments prevent me from doing so at this time in my life but I'm fully onboard with the enjoyment of the process. A love for research probably goes hand in hand with a love of the sport, as does an ability to retain facts and a natural affinity with numbers These are strengths of mine and I'd say the majority of the forum are probably of a similar ilk.

I have my own ways of narrowing fields to a manageable number which no doubt means I cut corners, thus missing out on the odd winner or two. My methods could easily be transferred to the initial declaration stage and indeed I've managed to come up with a shortlist of 6 for the Ultima with surprisingly little effort.

The next hurdle I encounter is multiple declarations for all 6 which is a problem we all share no matter what our methods. So it's either take Danny's advice and take the shorter price NRNB or take the bigger price with the risk that I'll be behind before I've even started. I think ultimately I think comes down to the difference between the two prices.

The next issue is that all handicaps weren't born equal. Some appear significantly more difficult to predict in terms of which ones will make the cut and what mark they'll be given. Hence why I'll be leaving these until the weights come out. I think my overall method will be to attack them with gusto over the next week but try and restrict my betting to only the most enticing opportunities. As long as I've gone through the process and created a shortlist I'll be better poised to jump in head first when the 48hr decs are made. That is unless none of them make it and it's back to square one!
 
Danny said:
I think at least the way your using them Maxbet sounds sensible by taking other factors into account to adjust them. Just one question when you say you use the RPR do you use latest current rating ? Or best ratings or best rating achieved over the conditions I.e trip course e.t.c ?

Interesting mate cheer's.

Just had a quick squazz at my selections for the county looking at RPR's

Flying Tiger OR 140 RPR 151 +11lb
Mohaayed OR 139 RPR 145 + 6lb
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You have to use the one thats applied to the race, because that has had the compiler's reasoning for that particular race applied. If you look at horses that have multi entries, you'll find they have different RPR's; and thats because the compiler has already applied several deciphering factors.

Thats correct in your example assumption.....the beauty of excel is, it allows you to do the entire field in an instance.
 
TheBear said:
Hence why I'll be leaving these until the weights come out.
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Most of the weights are easily sorted.

In the advance cards at the RP site just click on the OR column and it will sort them in that order. For Cheltenham some of the Irish ORs won't be there but they can be sourced at the Irish Racing site. The issue then is what adjustment the UK handicapper will make. For consistent horses it averages about 6lbs. It might drop a bit if a horse has been out of form.
 
Incidentally; someone asked if they had any idea what kind of condition the ground would be in, if the snow was to lie on the ground for any significant period...in 1979 the snow caused the abandonment of the meeting, the races were put back until April, and even then the weather was cold....the conditions were very hard for the jockey's to understand; they rode their usual races and the horses seemed to travel comfortably on it.....but it lied to them; horses required lots more stamina in their pedigree to get home.
 
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