Cheltenham Festival Handicaps 2018

Everyone panicking about snow.

The nap of the meeting is that he waters the New Course Tuesday night, to ensure Good-to-Soft for the Gold Cup.
 
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The going stick on the Old course is 14.2 and 15.7 on the New, the Car park is 18.5....course has been frozen for the past week, and now it's got a lovely blanket of snow to keep it cold....Simon says it's going to rain Monday and the temperature is set to rise to +6....it's a nap that he has his fingers crossed.
 
Grasshopper said:
Based on their current marks (plus an educated guess at the Irish ones), horse number 27 this year will land around Drumcliff

Ballyhill
Mister Whitaker
Mount Mews
Geordie Des Champs
Goose Man
Livelovelaugh
Patrick's Park
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Drumcliffe is horse #30 in the handicap for the Close Brothers. Of those listed above, only Mount Mews might sneak in - the rest are dead runners.
 
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For a point of reference (might be of interest, so throwing it out there), these were the top, bottom and Winner ratings in the handicaps last year:

Ultima: 155 & 134 (Winner 155)
Close Bros: 142 & 137 (Winner 138)
Coral Cup: 156 & 136 (Winner 148)
Fred Winter: 139 & 124 (Winner 134)
Pertemps: 147 & 137 (Winner 146)
Plate: 155 & 133 (Winner 145)
Kim Muir: 145 & 133 (Winner 137)
County: 158 & 134 (Winner 158)
Martin Pipe: 145 & 135 (Winner 138)
Grand Annual: 154 & 135 (Winner 147)
 
For what its worth Phil Smith says the Ultima Handicap Chase is the best renewal of the contest “by some degree” and believes a mark of 138 may be the cut off point. He also reckoned that Kim Muir favourite Squouateur is only 50-50 to get in to the race.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I'm surprised to learn you lend so little importance to RPRs, Danny.

While I compile and rely much more heavily on my own ratings, I'm always interested in a second (and/or third - Timeform) opinion, to see how much of a difference there is. If there's a huge difference I might investigate further to see if I or they may have missed something.

RPRs strike me as much more reliable since Steve Mason took over. Originally under Dominic Gardiner-Hill (the new chief BHA handicapper) I couldn't agree with his ratings. It wasn't hard to work out his thinking and I couldn't take his work too seriously.

I once subscribed to Timeform (during an enforced extended absence through ill-health from work and needed to pass the time) and found them disastrous. I suspect they have improved a fair bit in the last 30 years, though, and recent sectional analysis appears to be better informing them. But I still like to know how they measure up compared with my own.

It all boils down to 'each to their own', I suppose, and if your own ways work for you then stick with them.

I know I do, but I learned a long time ago that being open to others' ideas is no bad thing.
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Its not that I'm against RPR's rather than I've been totally oblivious to them. When I first came into cyber space I came across ratings by a guy called Adrian Massey and I thought his ratings and other things on his site were really useful. Unfortunately, out of the blue, he just stopped doing them. I think it was some sort of family issue. I've seen a couple of guys online who do their own ratings who've been quite good but it helps me at least when I've talked to these people and understand to some extent how they are coming to their ratings to put more faith in them. With the RPR's I might start taking note of them just for comparison purposes but I think we've already got off on the wrong foot as I'd have Mohaayed far better handicapped than Flying Tiger and as such have a larger bet on him. I don't have much faith in Kingwell form for various reasons but I knew others would, I think if he hadn't been a previous festival winner I wouldn't have even bothered with him but he was one I knew would be popular in the betting and as such thought I'd take the chance to hold a decent voucher at double the price I'd imagine he'll be on the day. Mohaayed on the other hand is one I'd expect would go a little more under the radar betting wise but I have him seriously well in, enough to say given luck in running he has a very good shout of hitting the bullseye.

I'm certainly always open to other peoples input but I sort of like to know their thinking. I haven't been on here long but already there are people yourself included who's opinion I'd respect. One of the best punters I've ever seen online a young kid (Josh Fletcher) came to post on our forum for a while. He'd do his write ups for his selections and I think the first 30/40 horses he put up lost, it was still clear to me though even after that, that he was someone who's knowledge was above and beyond his years but also above most I'd seen including myself. I actually aspire to have the level of intelligence of the Simon Rowlands, James Willoughby's of this world but in truth I'm more like "the couch" Minus the snide e/w's haha.

I think through the jumps season I'd usually only have a serious betting interest in 2-3 races each week so it's not vital that I hold a database of ratings. I tend to have a look at Saturdays action through the week and quite often have all my bets done ante-post or at least have my selections ready to bet on the day. Its not ideal but as with Bear I have to balance things with family life and weekends I don't really get the chance to be doing much.

Come the Flat Season its a different M.O altogether....and no, I don't mean hibernate through it Grass !
 
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archie said:
60th on the list though.
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True. He's by Sulamani, already won on soft this season, so I can only hope it comes up soft by the Friday and the ground scares off a lot of higher weighted horses. That's the plan.
 
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I've backed something of a cliff horse in the two handicaps for which he's entered.

He's also entered in the National, not surprisingly.

However, he still holds his entry for the Gold Cup.

I've backed him in all the races with the NRNB/BOG where offered.

Maybe I should mention its name: Tenor Nivernais

Once the guffawing stops, listen to my reasoning.

His win on Betfair Chase day last February was utterly sensational. I had it pretty much off the scale on my time ratings so presumed it must have been the only well-run race on a card full of slow-run races, including the big one won by Cue Card.

At that time, I was unaware of Simon Rowlands's sectional debriefs and only discovered them soon after.

Of the same races, he said:

It would be perverse to crab a 15-length success (by Cue Card in the Betfair Chase at Ascot) in a Grade 1 from a horse who has the best staying chase time of the season (in the Betfair Chase at Haydock), but consider this: there was a chase winner on the same card who ran a faster average speed and significantly faster closing sectionals than Cue Card despite covering nearly three furlongs further in all.

That horse was Tenor Nivernais, winner of a listed handicap off a BHA mark of 152 in a time nearly half a furlong quicker than recorded by Bigbadjohn in winning the Grade 2 Reynoldstown Chase at the same course and distance shortly before.

There may be doubts about Tenor Nivernais’ suitability for the Grand National at Aintree, and some incredulity as to where this effort suddenly came from, but there should be none about how spectacular an effort this was against the clock. It is a shame he is not in the Cheltenham Gold Cup.
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Needless to say, I was more reassured than anything else that my time ratings weren't far wrong and the form of the race has certainly been franked into this season.

Anyway, for all he's been basically disappointing this season, I've found his runs gradually less discouraging, prompting me to believe that, whatever it may be, he has had a very serious long-term goal this season. I do wish I know what it is!

Anyway, I have him for the National at 250/1, the Gold Cup at 1000 (without the guarantees for either), 66/1 for the Ultima and 40/1 for the Brown Advisory (both with both guarantees and four places).

Let the guffawing resume...
 
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Desert Orchid said:
Let the guffawing re-start...
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He's actually one I've had on my radar but I believe he's a hack up or blowout type of bet can't really see him doing much in between. I've withheld from backing him ante-post as I think he's a type people will completely ignore and as such I think he'll be a very big win price on the exchanges on the day so I'll have a few quid at a big price then whatever he lines up in (hopefully).
 
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Wonder which horses are going to the Southwell bumper meeting on Friday? Last time that happened [to my knowledge anyway.there may have been others] we went and there was us, Nicky Henderson, a lady in a fur coat and one man and his dog. Henderson said they'd had to leave at the crack of dawn to get there; I wonder if they'd ever been there before? What a lot of people don't know about Southwell is it's quite hilly roundabouts and when it's icy the roads are a nightmare.
 
archie said:
60th on the list though.
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Looking through last years renewal, six horses ran in the County Hurdle off the same mark of 135, with one horse, (Mohaayed), scraping in off 134 and finishing seventh. Clearly Skelton likes to try and get something in this progressing with no weight. I think Solomon Grey will make cut, just about! I certainly don't believe just because he's currently 60 on the list that he has no chance. The number is off putting but in practice it will be a close run thing, I reckon 60/40 he gets in but some of that percentage may depend on the ground.
 
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Tenor Ninervais is on my list of handicappers to watch out for. I have him as potentially a well handicapped horse that I'll almost certainly back ew in whichever race he runs in. The first thing I did when the entries came out was check on all Venietia's horses and immediately I saw him I thought about that Ascot race and looked it up again.
 
I like Coo Star Sivola (14/1 Ultima), Movewiththetimes (10/1 Close Bros) and The King Of May (20/1 Fred Winter), all nrnb and bog. Done win singles and ew trixie.
 
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