Cheltenham Festival Handicaps 2018

archie said:
Fingal Bay?
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This would have been exactly 36 H'Cap races ago in the Pertemps 2014 - I believe you are correct archie :thumbsup:
Fingal Bay was the 9/2 Fav. I was actually on Southfield Theatre at 25/1 that day. Never forget it! Daryl Jacob almost in tears after.
And just to complete the trip down memory lane, who was back in 3rd only Pineau De Re who went on to win the Grand National only 3 weeks later!
 
Double Handful said:
This would have been exactly 36 H'Cap races ago in the Pertemps 2014 - I believe you are correct archie :thumbsup:
Fingal Bay was the 9/2 Fav. I was actually on Southfield Theatre at 25/1 that day. Never forget it! Daryl Jacob almost in tears after.
And just to complete the trip down memory lane, who was back in 3rd only Pineau De Re who went on to win the Grand National only 3 weeks later!
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I was on southfield as well,my banker and i was in tears after as well.still cant believe it got beat.
 
It's the kind of stat I'd completely ignore.

I seldom bet favourites and come the festival there's, to an extent I suspect, an element of herd mentality among punters. Once a horse starts shortening it seems there's a psychological phenomenon kicks in whereby a large number of punters don't want to miss out on what might end up a successful gamble so they join in and the price collapses, helped in part by the bookies artificially shortening it to help promote the plunge which all the time they are laying).

Last year the shortest price handicappers I backed were SFP and Diamond King, both 11/2 taken. I think SFP may have gone off shorter and let's face it a short-head second isn't a stat-confirmer in my view. DK was maybe just really unlucky on the day regardless of whether he might or might not have won.
 
In terms of the market, the meeting might be a little too big these days, and by that, I mean that the volume of uninformed money probably outweighs the informed money.......which may lead to more false-favourites than might otherwise be the case.

And I agree with DO that there can be something of a chase-the-ball mentality that drives the market.

Are the stats for winning/losing favourites any different when the Betfair SP is reviewed, rather than the industry-returned SP?
 
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Double Handful said:
This would have been exactly 36 H'Cap races ago in the Pertemps 2014 - I believe you are correct archie :thumbsup:
Fingal Bay was the 9/2 Fav. I was actually on Southfield Theatre at 25/1 that day. Never forget it! Daryl Jacob almost in tears after.
And just to complete the trip down memory lane, who was back in 3rd only Pineau De Re who went on to win the Grand National only 3 weeks later!
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Of Course! Off top weight aswel no less, Also the same year Whisper won the Coral Cup with a certain Nico DB claiming 5lb!
 
It's almost a certainty that horses will be missing exercise; if not through ground conditions, through staff not getting into work.
 
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I still can't believe that any Lambourn horses will make it to Southwell tomorrow; we're not prepared to travel there and we only live just down the road.
 
Time for my ante post for cheltenham.

TRAFFIC FLUIDE 1PT EW 40/1 browns advisory. Best value bet of the week.
GLENLOE 1PT EW 10/1 pertemps
HUNTERS CALL 1PT EW 12/1
ENNISCOFFEY OSCAR 1PT EW 20/1 coral cup
THE WORLDS END 1pt ew 20/1 stayers
All NRNB
 
DO, my reading of that Greatwood run by AHB is somewhat different to yours. From memory he was unleashed in full flight with nowhere to go but up the rear of the one’s in front.I recall screaming at the jockey as I had multiples going on to him. Rarely do I disagree with you but this case may be one where the horse has quirks that require the talents of one of the better jockeys. I have the horse in the early AP lists and remain fairly happy.
Up to the point when DG mentioned that SFP was not a definite runner, I’ve been pretty happy that most of my handicap punts are going for the race I’ve backed them for. The nasties have yet to come.
For past week or so have been in Langkawi, near to Tanlic-land. Communications brilliant and if you do not use app. then no problem getting bets on. Leaving this weekend but snow currently stopping flights. Drop in temperature from 33degrees to 0 or less is not a pleasant thought.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Again, without having studied any of the handicaps yet, Beat That will certainly carry some sickness insurance at least. He was clearly ridden with the future in mind last time.
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Genuinely don't get this.

Beat That has been out of form since returning from injury; failing to make any impact as a chaser, and it's been the same since he was returned to hurdles. He hasn't won a race for four years, and is now a 10yo running in a race which almost always goes to a young improving horse, and I don't get why you (or Max) would be wasting your time backing him.

He isn't being plotted-up for this - he just isn't very good! :)
 
Tout Seul said:
Up to the point when DG mentioned that SFP was not a definite runner, I’ve been pretty happy that most of my handicap punts are going for the race I’ve backed them for. The nasties have yet to come.
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Report in Stroud Journal yesterday appears to indicate a more positive perspective, TG quite keen on SFP's chances in the Ultima.
 
Grasshopper said:
Genuinely don't get this.

Beat That has been out of form since returning from injury; failing to make any impact as a chaser, and it's been the same since he was returned to hurdles. He hasn't won a race for four years, and is now a 10yo running in a race which almost always goes to a young improving horse, and I don't get why you (or Max) would be wasting your time backing him.

He isn't being plotted-up for this - he just isn't very good! :)
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He's now very well handicapped as a result of the negatives you list, GH, so I backed him last time. He travelled through the race like a champion hurdler. On first viewing the race (very soft) I thought I detected a mistake about three out and he hadn't recovered in the ground. Watching it again, there was no mistake, just a trompe d’œil on my part, and thereafter he was seriously looked after. I watched the race at least twice more just in case I was still misreading it but it only served to reinforce that impression.

That was when I started thinking, "Ah, Cheltenham..."

But, as you say, he could just be as bad as his bare form. But if I was right and hadn't backed him.... Hence the sickness insurance at least :)
 
Tout Seul said:
DO, my reading of that Greatwood run by AHB is somewhat different to yours. From memory he was unleashed in full flight with nowhere to go but up the rear of the one’s in front.I recall screaming at the jockey as I had multiples going on to him. Rarely do I disagree with you but this case may be one where the horse has quirks that require the talents of one of the better jockeys.
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I'm not short of time to kill today, TS, so I'll check the video. I'd prefer if you were right. I don't like thinking I've backed the wrong horse.
 
I take an opposing view myself, DO.

I think he was an incredibly badly handicapped horse, for beating a boat like Don Poli, and he is no better than moderately handicapped now.

Good luck with it. :cool:
 
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Desert Orchid said:
Again, without having studied any of the handicaps yet, Beat That will certainly carry some sickness insurance at least. He was clearly ridden with the future in mind last time.
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Look at the rating he posted when he beat the Stayers hurdle winner at Liverpool. He was still travelling well when he came down against Black Gorton earlier in the season....He cruised through the qualifier....looking as if he needed the race.
 
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Grasshopper said:
I take an opposing view myself, DO.

I think he was an incredibly badly handicapped horse, for beating a boat like Don Poli, and he is no better than moderately handicapped now.

Good luck with it. :cool:
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I accept I might need that luck, GH, but for the life of me 'badly handicapped' is not a phrase I'd associate with him.

You could argue that beating the 135-rated Cole Harden in the G1 at Aintree amounts to diddlysquat but CH next time off 150 beat the 151-rated Medinas by eight in the West Yorkshire Hurdle, for which he went up to 158 and later that season won the Stayers.

BT himself was only off 151 when he beat 153-rated DP who then went chasing and settled as a mid 160s sort. I have to agree that the Punchestown form doesn't amount to much, though.

BT's career then went through its stuttering era. I presume he had training or soundness issues and Hendo has all the patience in the world with rehabilitating good ones. I do think BT is, at worst, a mid-150s stayer and if his OR of 160 for the start of 14-15 is anywhere near correct he has to be considered well in off 145.

I have to suspect Hendo realised BT wasn't going to be a champion stayer but he has certainly manged to chisel his rating down quite nicely.
 
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Tout Seul said:
DO, my reading of that Greatwood run by AHB is somewhat different to yours. From memory he was unleashed in full flight with nowhere to go but up the rear of the one’s in front.I recall screaming at the jockey as I had multiples going on to him. Rarely do I disagree with you but this case may be one where the horse has quirks that require the talents of one of the better jockeys. I have the horse in the early AP lists and remain fairly happy.
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I've run that race through a few times now, TS.

I'm not really seeing what you're seeing. At the downhill flight there were a couple in front of him but I'm not sure they were stopping him from making a move. The jockey was going left and right looking for a clear passage and had charted an outer route in the final mile but Song Light was wider still, was always going more easily and readily quickened past AHB. After the last the two in front closed the space between them and AHB but either he shied away from the challenge, didn't have enough in him to fight for the space or the jockey decided it wasn't worth the effort. Either way, I don't think he was the best horse on the day. I did back him too. You probably won't remember my post-race review:

It’s hard to escape the obvious conclusion that Winter Escape was a put-up to take the heat off the plot that was Modus. We all saw at Ascot that he was being prepped for something, presumably this but Geraghty appears to have been in on the plot in opting for King’s runner. I’m glad it didn’t win and not just because it was one of mine that beat it. North Hill Harvey was very gutsy in keeping Modus at bay close home, I thought, but I was slightly disappointed that A Hare Breath could only manage fourth. He was never going quite as well as the other three placed horses but still looked dangerous at the last only to find less than the others up the hill.
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(Just quoting - no aftertiming intended :))
 
I've come across what I believe is a genuine longshot for the Close Brothers.

It's guaranteed to make the cut so I hope this is the target. I'm just holding off on naming or backing it until I can get the best price with NRNB and BOG.
 
Whatever it is, it won't beat Divine Spear :whistle:

PS I think DS has to win a chase before Cheltenham to qualify, not sure
 
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Grasshopper said:
Genuinely don't get this.

Beat That has been out of form since returning from injury; failing to make any impact as a chaser, and it's been the same since he was returned to hurdles. He hasn't won a race for four years, and is now a 10yo running in a race which almost always goes to a young improving horse, and I don't get why you (or Max) would be wasting your time backing him.

He isn't being plotted-up for this - he just isn't very good! :)
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I've already backed him nrnb, so I'm encouraged to see Max and DO have a similar line of thinking. I reckon he has a borderline graded engine under the bonnet and Nicky isn't known to waste time on 10 yo's that aren't up to it anymore. I reckon he could be spectacularly well handicapped.
 
On a slightly different subject does anyone keep a record of where the cutoffs for the handicaps have been for the last few years? I do but for some reason I can't find my file.

If so I'd be grateful if you could either post or send me a message. I'm planning a big purge over the weekend, and I don't want to either do unnecessary work or cut off too early and miss some entries.
 
There's a video in another thread (Simon's?) with Nick Luck interviewing the handicappers and they mention that type of stat for almost every race they deal with.
 
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