Cheltenham Festival Handicaps 2018

The more important stat to me is that he has had three of the last eight winners, despite being sh*it. :lol:
 
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The quandary trainers are in is they have good ground horses put away for this and then ground is dead.
Remember a few years ago Edward o Grady having a hissy fit when he felt ground was over watered in 2012; Catch Me was beaten 3/4 length by Cape Tribulation in Pertemps Final having been trained to the minute.
Imagine the effect of snow, ice, half an inch of rain and no grass cover to absorb it.
 
edgt said:
The quandary trainers are in is they have good ground horses put away for this and then ground is dead.
Remember a few years ago Edward o Grady having a hissy fit when he felt ground was over watered in 2012; Catch Me was beaten 3/4 length by Cape Tribulation in Pertemps Final having been trained to the minute.
Imagine the effect of snow, ice, half an inch of rain and no grass cover to absorb it.
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I hope its safe ground for all horses, but I'm unashamedly and selfishly more interested in getting nice angles based on the unpredictability of soft/dead ground, than I am about trainers feelings.

I'm really hoping bookies get punished next week good style. I'd actually be happy for my worse enemy if they took a few digits' off those crawly bookies. :)
 
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Some great racing at Auteuil tomorrow, as our compadre Irish Stamp (@quevega) has pointed-out on Twitter.

What has this got to do with Festival handicaps, I hear you ask?

Well, the Grade 3 chase features three of the best young chasers in France, in the shape of Bipolaire, Edward D’Argent and Saint Goustain Blue. The last-named is now rated in the 150’s, and was once-upon-a-time beaten 6L off levels in a Listed hurdle by a certain King’s Socks. This would be the same King’s Socks who also had good juvenile hurdling form with Footpad (4th in the last Champion Hurdle, and current Arkle favourite) and Device (winner of 15 of 22 hurdles starts, and who faces-off against top-class mare De Bon Couer tomorrow).

King’s Socks is off 140 in the Plate.

Wow.

:whistle:
 
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Grasshopper said:
Some great racing at Auteuil tomorrow, as our compadre Irish Stamp (@quevega) has pointed-out on Twitter.

What has this got to do with Festival handicaps, I hear you ask?

Well, the Grade 3 chase features three of the best young chasers in France, in the shape of Bipolaire, Edward D’Argent and Saint Goustain Blue. The last-names is now rated in the 150’s, and was once-upon-a-time beaten 6L off levels in a Listed Chase, by a certain King’s Socks. This would be the same King’s Socks who also had good juvenile hurdling form with Footpad (4th in the last Champion Hurdle, and current Arkle favourite) and Device (winner of 15 of 22 hurdles starts, and who faces-off against top-class mare De Bon Couer tomorrow).

King’s Socks is off 140 in the Plate.

Wow.

:whistle:
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Its not often you use the word 'Great'!

Definitely worth getting out of bed for then...:) :) :)
 
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Grass has spotted an interesting one no doubt.

Only Tom Scu setting off like the clappers may thwart him

It is one deep race mind and could make a case for at least 3 Elliott horses
 
A type they've done well with in this race in the past no doubt
I'll be interested to hear any snippets from the stable as they were publicly bullish about the chances of Salut Flo when he won.
 
Perfect Impulse won a €45K hurdle at Auteuil today. He was beaten 4.5L by King's Socks (conceding 11lbs), in a Listed Hurdle in May 2016. Saint Goustan Blue won the €65K chase on today's card, and was beaten 6.5L of levels in the same Listed Hurdle.

King's Sock's is entered in the Festival Plate off a mark of 140.

Wow.
 
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What's the general level of prize money in France?

Is 45k not about the same level as 15k over here?

You've clearly id'd a fascinating runner, GH, and I'll be pleased for you if he justifies your confidence - as it's a great feeling when it comes off - but I'm more convinced by the ratings of the horses involved in those races than the prize money.

Needless to say, you've got me digging through form with which I'm pretty unfamiliar to get my own take on the level.

Cheers, pal :lol:
 
Talking of French prize money and racing whatever happened to the Doumen's. I used to love following their raids over here and it doesn't seem to happen anymore. I don't keep an eye on the French Jumps scene so have no idea if they are still involved. Also didn't Ferdy Murphy move out their to train at one point ? Hows he getting on ?

I once tried doing what Grassy is doing on a horse called Saphir river who had lines with the top Juveniles in France at the time and got in over here off a ridiculously low handicap mark.... needless to say it scarred me for life I tread more carefully these days with foreign form.
 
Desert Orchid said:
What's the general level of prize money in France?

Is 45k not about the same level as 15k over here?

You've clearly id'd a fascinating runner, GH, and I'll be pleased for you if he justifies your confidence - as it's a great feeling when it comes off - but I'm more convinced by the ratings of the horses involved in those races than the prize money.

Needless to say, you've got me digging through form with which I'm pretty unfamiliar to get my own take on the level.

Cheers, pal :lol:
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Best not to think of it in prize-money terms, rather think of it in ratings terms.

It was the first meeting of the saeason, so they're not going to be fully wound-up (or at least not all of them), but Perfect Impulse was rated about 161 in old-money, and Saint Goustan Blue about 158, heading into today's races.

Clearly, it is not linear, but even if they've both ran 10lbs below their best, I would have to think that King's Sock's is lightly-treated off 140..........and that doesn't account for any scope for improvement, following his pipe-opener after 606 days off the track, or measured against what the other pair have subsequently gone on to achieve.

I think he is an absolute good thing, as long as he gets into the race. At #50, it's tighter than I'd like it to be (I think they were probably surprised when he was dropped 3lb after Kempton), but he should still get in.
 
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I had a quick look at the Auteuil card today and picked, pretty much at random, one race. It was a hcap chase for 5yo+, not Graded, as far as I could see (one of the reasons I opted for it).

It's value? €100,000

That's a mega Saturday / festival handicap over here.

Over there it's bread and butter.

(That's bookies for you...)
 
Grasshopper said:
Best not to think of it in prize-money terms, rather think of it in ratings terms.

It was the first meeting of the saeason, so they're not going to be fully wound-up (or at least not all of them), but Perfect Impulse was rated about 161 in old-money, and Saint Goustan Blue about 158, heading into today's races.

Clearly, it is not linear, but even if they've both ran 10lbs below their best, I would have to think that King's Sock's is lightly-treated off 140..........and that doesn't account for any scope for improvement, following his pipe-opener after 606 days off the track, or measured against what the other pair have subsequently gone on to achieve.

I think he is an absolute good thing, as long as he gets into the race. At #50, it's tighter than I'd like it to be (I think they were probably surprised when he was dropped 3lb after Kempton), but he should still get in.
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I had a look at the lines with the Footpad races. If Device and Zubayr are reliable guides - don't know that they are, just picking them out as I've heard of them - then I'm not sure much over 140 should apply. On RPRs the others that ran in those races haven't done much since. But I respect your opinion too much to dismiss it. I plan to keep looking.

I'll check those most recent races but I'd also wonder why KS hasn't raced much.

By the way, where do you get the ratings from? Are they French ORs? If so, where are they published?
 
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You're free to assess as you see fit, and back something else in the race. I just think you will spend a long time looking for one that is as far ahead of the handicapper.

KS had a setback shortly after joining Pipe. He was among the ante-post favourites for the Bet Victor Chase (or whoever sponsored) at the time.

Go to France-Galop for ratings - though they're in kilos, and like all ratings, you need to exercise a bit of discretion when finalising a number. Once you've checked Device's mark (he has won 15 of 23 hurdles starts, and is rock-solid - despite a poor effort today), you might have another think about whether 140 is accurate for King's Socks.

I recommend you completely ignore RPRs for French racing. Irish Stamp is ten times the handicapper of French horses, than those idiots are.
 
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If Irish Stamp is the same guy as used to post on my old forum under another name ( I think he is ) I'd agree Grass.
 
Don't do Twitter Grass but I think he's the same fella but its been some years. Shrewd guy as you've said.

Think he always used to give us some insight into Hunter Chasers way back when.
 
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Yep, I see what you mean about RPRs and it looks like (via L'Ami Serge and Shaneshill) French ORs are inflated compared with UK/Irish ones (or are ours too conservative? - still, it's all relative) but if King's Socks's French rating of 169 is even a stone too high then 140 could indeed be a very attractive mark.

It's certainly an angle I'll be looking out for in future. TVM.
 
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