Cheltenham Flop of the Week

I like Henry Cecil's comment when he says he wouldn't trust himself enough to go straight to a Guineas. Some trainers such as APOB do it, but only with horses they think it will benefit.

Nicholls knows Denman well enough to know what he will benefit from.

But it is a tried and trusted tactic to give a horse a run 4 or 5 weeks before a big engagement. Give them an easy two weeks and then wind them up to fever pitch for the big day.

Gap since last race of past 10 Champion Hurdle winners:

HF 6.5wks
Binocular 5.5wks
Punjabi 3.5wks
Katchit 3.5wks
Sublimity 6.5wks
Brave Inca 6.5wks
Hardy II 4.5wks
Hardy I 4.5wks
Rooster Booster 5.5wks
Hors La Loi III 2.5wks
 
Woolcombe Folly and Kempes were two of the most ludicrously priced horses of the week. You could see in the Cheltenham previews that Nicholls was surprised by the way the horse was being talked up. It never ceases to amaze me how people sometimes get carried away by handicap wins in the context of big races.

As for Kempes, if he had different connections, he'd have been treble the price. Nonsensical. Maybe people believed that Ireland had to have a genuine Gold Cup contender and with Panorama unsuited by the ground, the money came for Kempes, I dunno. [Incidentally, China Rock went wrong coming down the hill...a bit of tendonitis...Mouse insistent he'd have finished in the first four as he was travelling so well...not sure about that as he has a habit of flattering to deceive but hopefully he recovers..still in England at the moment I think]
 
Hamm said:
I love how every year bar none there is a horse from Ireland with his profile backed into some crazy price.
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This is just lazy and insulting nonsense, pure and simple.

Some fancied horses flop every year. It has nothing to do with nationality.

Before you accuse the Irish of wearing green blinkers, have a look at The Weekender's Cheltenham special publication. It had 7 or 8 pundits giving tips on each race. Now they're going to press very early, runners and going are not certain, and finding winners in those circumstances is difficult, so I wouldn't judge them too harshly in that regard. I do expect, however, that people putting themselves forward as authorities on racing impartially assess every horse's chance before making selections.

This clearly was not the case. Simon Holt selected 3 Irish trained horses, which was about average for the group. Peter Naughton selected one. No reasonable person was expecting so few Irish winners beforehand.
 
Im a bit with Hamm here. I think that the overreaching desire for a national winner (and desire often drives market as much as anything) frequently fires off an unsubstantiated bandwagon

I have a rule of avoiding the really heavily backed irish runners for that reason

Second and third in markets is different matter though. I was suprised Oscar Wells didnt go off shorter i must say, especially given trainers comments about the ground. I thought that would have been a gamble
 
Grey said:
This is just lazy and insulting nonsense, pure and simple.

Some fancied horses flop every year. It has nothing to do with nationality.

Before you accuse the Irish of wearing green blinkers, have a look at The Weekender's Cheltenham special publication. It had 7 or 8 pundits giving tips on each race. Now they're going to press very early, runners and going are not certain, and finding winners in those circumstances is difficult, so I wouldn't judge them too harshly in that regard. I do expect, however, that people putting themselves forward as authorities on racing impartially assess every horse's chance before making selections.

This clearly was not the case. Simon Holt selected 3 Irish trained horses, which was about average for the group. Peter Naughton selected one. No reasonable person was expecting so few Irish winners beforehand.
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Dunguib, Sweet Wake, So Young ... keep them coming! Crazy, false prices.

The fact is there is always an Irish talking horse who all the Irish who come to Cheltenham back.

This year the talk was of these gallops So Young had been doing. Great. Drove the price down from 5s to 2s. Excellent, it made the market. He had little form, and that which he had was in alien conditions to Cheltenham.

I had a small bet on First Lieutenent, who had better form, if you try to make me out to be against the Irish horses.

I would also say if you don't think half of Ireland has a massive bias towards their 'own' horses come Cheltenham in terms of who they back, I would think again.
 
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So Young is a serious horse, badly let down by poor jumping, and im confident that this will be shown in time. Il happily hold my hands up if im wrong.
 
Hamm said:
Dunguib, Sweet Wake, So Young ... keep them coming! Crazy, false prices.
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Of course, hindsight is 20-20, but I make it: unrealistically priced favourites this year:

Poquelin
Medermit
So Young
Cue Card
Time for Rupert

Last year:
Dunguib
Captain CB
Punchestowns
Shot from the Hip

I have left out horses like Tell Massini and Rite of Passage, as I think their form looked good going into the race.

So it is not all Irish. There was a Henderson mare who was ridiculously short for the Supreme a few years back. Commercial Flyer was favourite for the RSA Chase on zero form (I fell for this one). Seebald and Decoupage were real hype horses. And Silverburn was around 3/1 the same year as Aran Concerto. Loads of horses are unrealistically short prices.
 
Indeed and as such there was no need for anyone from across the sea to go looking for a "talking horse" or a "banker" they should have just lumped on her with the Dunguib/So Young money.

I don't think SY was quite as bad as Dunguib - SY was backed at decent enough prices for two different races in the lead up to the Festival, albeit NRNB whilst Dunguib had been a short priced favourite for the Supreme for the best part of a year.

There's at least one serious horse who struggles with his jumping - we'll see him over hurdles in 2011/12 :)
 
My point was that why look for a "banker" against unexposed horses when there's one sat right there with plenty of Grade 1 form in the book, far fewer doubts than other supposed "bankers" and is still relatively young, that's speaking as someone who had backed her at 16's downwards for her first DN Mares Hurdle but didn't go in this year due to the slight doubt about her absence and facing in all likelihood the best mare she'd faced to date.
 
You are clever..

Getting within 10 lengths of even what I think of Solwhit is good enough to win that mares race.
 
Mater Minded was a ridicoulus price on the ground.

Time For Rupert must have had probems and is in hands of a bad trainer, I still think he is a very good horse.


Cue Card bad preparation but beaten by better horses than people think.


Ruby rode quite badly in the week and was disappointing Townend was not riding Hurricane.



Mikael DHauguentet was a shocking price too.


negative also how many people in the paddock


RUk was not bad but would be great to see Nick Kuck one year having holidays and not presenting the Festival.



The most depressing thing of the Festival is when the Grand Annual is run and I start think we have 361 days for the next Supreme.
 
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Ghizao ran badly but the ground was to blame according to P. Nicholls. Hopefuly can show himself a good deal better than that.
 
Im a bit with Hamm here. I think that the overreaching desire for a national winner (and desire often drives market as much as anything) frequently fires off an unsubstantiated bandwagon
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It works both ways, though, and the British generally can't see an Irish horse winning unless it already has form in their country.
 
The fact is there is always an Irish talking horse who all the Irish who come to Cheltenham back.
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More nonsense. You should stop taking Alastair Down and Brough Scott as factual sources.

It so happens that in that publication I already mentioned, So Young was tipped by three out of the seven pundits who otherwise could hardly see an Irish horse win all week.
 
Flop of the week was Mouse Morris when he fell over Stewart Machin's microphone lead , 2 only out of 10 for style.:D
 
sunybay said:
Mater Minded was a ridicoulus price on the ground.

Time For Rupert must have had probems and is in hands of a bad trainer, I still think he is a very good horse.


Cue Card bad preparation but beaten by better horses than people think.


Ruby rode quite badly in the week and was disappointing Townend was not riding Hurricane.



Mikael DHauguentet was a shocking price too.


negative also how many people in the paddock


RUk was not bad but would be great to see Nick Kuck one year having holidays and not presenting the Festival.



The most depressing thing of the Festival is when the Grand Annual is run and I start think we have 361 days for the next Supreme.
Click to expand...


Ruby rode badly ???? :confused: Which races ?
 
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