Cheltenham Gold Cup 2015

On my figures, Carlingford Lough and Holywell ran to within about a pound or two of each other in the last week or so.

Carlingford Lough was ridden as though people's lives depended on it.

Holywell was never out of second gear.

The only difference is that CL's race was a championship contest.

Also, CL's race was pathetically slow but 22lbs faster than Prince De Beauchene's half an hour later.

Or are the RP's standard times for Leopardstown a joke?

Edit - just checked RPRs for those two races.

Carlingford Lough 169
Holywell 170

Both a few pounds higher than mine but the differential much the same.
 
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I wouldn't be looking too closely at hunter chase times as a baseline.

AP rides CL unless there's a good reason not to but Holywell doesn't necessarily need AP.
 
archie said:
I wouldn't be looking too closely at hunter chase times as a baseline.
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I only chose those two races are they were C&D events. I questioned the RP Standard Times because CL was 45lbs slower than Apache Stronghold in the novice chase.

archie said:
AP rides CL unless there's a good reason not to but Holywell doesn't necessarily need AP.
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I agree that Holywell doesn't need AP. McLernon has won on him at the festival.

But if AP is given a free choice I don't believe for a nanosecond that it's a given he'll choose CL.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I suspect last week was Carlingford Lough's Gold Cup and I'll be surprised if he even turns up at Cheltenham.
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His second race of the season. A relatively small trainer, these days at least. This guy was on the go for a full year as a novice so two races won't bottom him.

Absolutely amazed if he is not in line up
 
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Desert Orchid said:
On my figures, Carlingford Lough and Holywell ran to within about a pound or two of each other in the last week or so.

Carlingford Lough was ridden as though people's lives depended on it.

Holywell was never out of second gear.

The only difference is that CL's race was a championship contest.

Also, CL's race was pathetically slow but 22lbs faster than Prince De Beauchene's half an hour later.

Or are the RP's standard times for Leopardstown a joke?

Edit - just checked RPRs for those two races.

Carlingford Lough 169
Holywell 170

Both a few pounds higher than mine but the differential much the same.
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I think you are fooling yourself with some of your conclusions-Leopardstown was a Grade 1 race with Grade 1 horses- it will be no major surprise if the Gold Cup winner comes out of the race.Kelso was basically a paid gallop for Holywell.
 
I don't even understand why they ran Holywell in that "race"..he didn't know other horses were there..so might as well just run him round on his own somewhere
 
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granger said:
His second race of the season. A relatively small trainer, these days at least. This guy was on the go for a full year as a novice so two races won't bottom him.

Absolutely amazed if he is not in line up
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Have to agree, he probably had the busiest novice chase season ever.... He is a hardy horse who I doubt they'll be wrapping in cotton wool. What else would they run?!
 
EC1 said:
I don't even understand why they ran Holywell in that "race"..he didn't know other horses were there..so might as well just run him round on his own somewhere
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I can remember Bregawn and Silver Buck getting Gold Cup preps at Hereford and possibly Market Rasen where one of them was a no sp returned job.That was 30 years ago - I'd say Jonjo could have organised a better gallop at home -but having said that I respect horse and trainer.
 
Not sure that I'm fooling myself, Luke.

Surprised you'd even think I'd be prone to that.

I look at what the form amounts to and work from there.

One ran to mid-high 160s all out.

One ran to a very similar mark in a canter.

That's all I'm saying.

I suppose I'm just asking questions about the general perception of the form.
 
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EC1 said:
I don't even understand why they ran Holywell in that "race"..he didn't know other horses were there..so might as well just run him round on his own somewhere
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Other horses were there for the first circuit. Maybe that was part of the plan.

Plus, of course, they might as well pick up some prize money for winning a 'race' rather than pay for a racecourse gallop.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
Not sure that I'm fooling myself, Luke.

Surprised you'd even think I'd be prone to that.

I look at what the form amounts to and work from there.

One ran to mid-high 160s all out.

One ran to a very similar mark in a canter.

That's all I'm saying.
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You also said that you would be surprised if Carlingford Lough turned up - I can guarantee you he will barring injury.The two of them are trained by serious trainers-I seriously respect Jonjo and Holywell but you just cannot equate the Kelso/Leopardstown races.
 
What guarantee can you offer, Luke? Do you personally know the owner? Trainer? Jockey?

I said I'd be surprised if CL turned up because I believe last week was his main target for the season. I suspect they'll keep him for Aintree or Punchestown now. If I'm wrong, I'm wrong. I'll live with it.

Whether you can equate the Leopardstown and Kelso races is a question of interpretation. One was a Gr 1 the other the equivalent of a reasonable Saturday race. I can read.

It's what the form amounts to that counts.
 
why on earth would connections dodge a very open looking Gold Cup after winning a race which featured horses who have a strong chance of figuring at the business end, including the first two home in similarly open race last year. it's not as if Kauto or Denman are waiting in store next month. jp and co have taken shutthefrontdoor out of the race - do you think JP is going to sit back and wait for Aintree? maybe i've been living in a different universe all these years
 
respected holywell last year by the way - but think some of the collateral form here is being heavily influenced by confirmation bias. to effectively suggest that holywell would have won at leopardstown because of the performance he registered at kelso is quite a leap...he could have been on his arse by the business end.
 
Jambo said:
to effectively suggest that holywell would have won at leopardstown because of the performance he registered at kelso is quite a leap...
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No one has suggested that. That's your own interpretation of the debate. I'm trying to present possible evaluations of their respective chances come the Gold Cup with a view to trying to second guess McCoy's ride. I remain convinced that JP will give AP a free choice.


Jambo said:
...he could have been on his arse by the business end.
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Of course he could, and by that argument so could any horse that doesn't run in any race.
 
The Kelso race would have been more worth more IF the time had been decent..whereas the Irish race didn't have to have a decent time..it was full of decent horses to measure from

The situation you have with these two races is akin to a horse winning a seller on the flat by 30 lengths in a slow time over a mile..the 2nd horse in the seller is rated 55..30 lengths is approx 71lb..so the winner of the seller is theoretically then rated 126

this horse then meets the winner of a Group 1 race

the form rating says it will be a tight decision..will it?
 
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I wouldn't go that far, EC1.

Holywell's opponents had fairly established ratings so we did have a handle on their level, and where they finished relative to each other was pretty much in line with their ratings. Holywell was entitled to beat them out of sight, which he ultimately did, without having a hard race.

I said last week the time was the issue. It wasn't a fast time but they didn't go fast on the first circuit.

RPRs' conclusion is that his opponents actually ran 10lbs and more below form yet they still saw fit to award Holywell 170, which is higher than the rating I have for him.

On the occasions I question certain Gr 1 form, people keep coming back at me with the old chestnut, "You can only beat what's there." Yawn.

Holywell could only beat what was there. But in beating what was there he got a high rating. When the likes of Hurricane Fly only beats what's there ends up with a moderate rating suddenly you can't rate form like that.

If Carlsberg did cherrypickers they's only have to look here [others, not you] for the raw materials.
 
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