Cheltenham Handicap Watch

Grasshopper said:
The more I look at the County, the more I think JP has a great, big, fat, stinking rat in there, in the shape of Saint Roi.

No better than fair in a couple of Auteuil starts, he was sold to JP out of Guy Cherel's yard; re-appearing for Willie Mullins after 18 months, in an ordinary 2m3f Clonmel maiden hurdle (trailed home in 5th, not at all knocked about). He then came out in another ordinary maiden, easily accounting for Arcadian Sunrise over the bare 2m at Tramore.

Saint Roi has a mark of 133, which you might think a bit stiff for what he has achieved, until you consider that Arcadian Sunrise is a winner twice since, and is now rated 120. I think 133 is a workable mark even if there's no further improvement, and on balance, I figure he could be really well in.

He is #33, which means a run isn't guaranteed, but having looked at the ones ahead of him, I reckon we'll lose the nine he needs, to get in off bottom-weight. 20/1 generally available.
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Fave overnight. Geraghty rides.

#rat
 
I looked at the race [after a fashion] tonight.

Saint Roi caught my eye but I have to say so did about 8 others!

I don't have a problem with going mob-handed into big handicaps but most of them are in the front eight in the market so there's not really anything to be gained by backing them all.

I'm happy enough to have taken Stolen Silver and Mohaayed at longer than they currently are but I'll probably limit myself to just one more and will back it at the best terms on offer in the morning and hope I'm not mugged by one of the others!.

It's an extremely competitive race and will take a fair bit of winning. As per.
 
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Mohaayed is in the same system that threw up Kilfilum Cross who almost pulled it off yesterday, so I'm on at [I think] 33's. I do love the festival handicaps because you know they're inittowinit! The only total standout was Dame de Compagnie the other day that was head and shoulders above all the other horses in another of my little systems but she was a lousy price which resulted in a rare 'win' win bet for me.
 
moehat said:
Mohaayed is in the same system that threw up Kilfilum Cross who almost pulled it off yesterday, so I'm on at [I think] 33's. I do love the festival handicaps because you know they're inittowinit! The only total standout was Dame de Compagnie the other day that was head and shoulders above all the other horses in another of my little systems but she was a lousy price which resulted in a rare 'win' win bet for me.
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After timing ****
 
Well we missed that one...

Indefatigable..... 4.5 lengths 2nd behind Dame De Compagnee giving her 5Lb over course and distance las time out..
 
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Had one JP handicap hotpot all week. Of course it was Front View.

Insurance on Column of Fire. Ouch.

Diabolical week.
 
Think I’m up for the week, just. Need to do some math.

Ilikedwayurthinkin ran no race, no excuses.

With the likelihood Aintree etc being off, absolutely nothing to look forward to till November racing wise now. Cant get into flat racing.
 
So Irish hurdlers in handicaps

Pertemps 1-2-3-5

Coral 2-3-4-6

Boodles 1-3-4

County 1-2-3-4-6-7

Are the BHA handicapping team making it up as they go along?
 
Double J said:
Think I’m up for the week, just. Need to do some math.

Ilikedwayurthinkin ran no race, no excuses.

With the likelihood Aintree etc being off, absolutely nothing to look forward to till November racing wise now. Cant get into flat racing.
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I would imagine it will go ahead behind closed doors; I do think that an agreement should temporarily be made with the racing channels to allow free access to those of us that don't have it/can't afford it though. With a refund for those that do pay. [given that the sporting bodies seem to be behaving in a much more sensible, grown up way than the government.....]
 
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I see some politicians are throwing their toys out of their pram today about the festival going ahead.

It was all about listening to the science and the chief medical officer wasn't it?

They now disagree with the science from the chief medical officer.

Did he definately say what I have read in the press which is that he, (chief medical officer) want 60 percent to catch the virus?

Is mainsteam media trying make the bloke sound insane now then?

Forget who backed winners and losers over the four days. I am amazed the festival went ahead.

When the public health stasi get on your case you usually have to concede the argument.....

One bloke on mainstream sky news talking about people turning to their gods in these situations.

90 percent of people in the U.K don't even believe in god mate. Utter bollox.
 
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obv some good plot jobs in the irish ranks but the idea they are only winning because they are well hnaidcapped can be contested

what about irish horses in the other hurdles at festival? (lets go to 7 as diamond did)

i dont know percentage of irish runners in these races

obv goshen would have won triumph. but then column of fire would have won the handicap that uk did win.

what handicapping system would get the below to translate to equal number of winners in handicaps. handicap results really are in line with general trend in conditions races and nbody wants to admit that. easy excuse for english trainers

supreme novices 2, 4, 7

champion hurdle 2, 3, 4, 5, 7

mares 1, 2, 3, 5

ballymore 1, 2, 3

stayers hurdle 2, 3

mares hurdle 1, 2, 4, 5

triumph 1, 2, 6, 7

albert bartlett 1, 2, 3, 5, 6
 
wilsonl said:
Nothing "plot" about it but at long as Bridgey doesn't get too carried away and enter him for the Gold Cup or blow his mark beforehand (holds entries for the coming weekend), The Conditional is more than capable of running a big race in the Tuesday handicap off 142.

He's still eligible for novices and they were considering the Kim Muir in-between his Cheltenham win and his gallant Hennessy second but he'd carry near top weight in that now and novices have a decent record in the 3 miler.

25/1 for the 3 mile handicap or 16/1 to win any race with 365, which screws your lucky 15 if he goes up against Glenloe in the KM

P.S. Assume you mean martin Pipe for Ilikedwayurthinkin
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Ultima winner put up on page 1!
 
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