Cheltenham Handicaps

T

treetangle

At the Start
Joined
Mar 2, 2009
Messages
290
Kick this off with a couple of questions:-

Ballynagour - where do we think he will go and is he now much too short given that he is going to face a huge step up in class, a much more severe jumping test and a much higher mark?

Already stated I think the Grand Annual would be the best option but the market would seem to indicate Byrne.

Sam Winner - handicap good thing or shocking value? All about what he might still be capable of and as he hasn't actually won over obstacles for more than two years I would be in the extremely dodgy favourite camp.
 
Nicholls and Skelton both singled Sam Winner out as their best bets in the stable tour, which has me worried as I don't fancy him and have backed Close House.
 
Ballynagour could in theory still go for one of the hurdles...he would be chucked in for the Pipe conditional... :D
 
Can't help thinking that Wonderful Charm is another example of Nicholls talking the price down. Very little racecourse evidence to justify the short price and you have to wonder if he is such a handicap blot why they are not having a shot at a very open World Hurdle.

Rody has recently been cut for Grand Annual. As the trainer pointed out his form has received several boosts but those wins came in very small fields and 20 runners and searching pace will be a whole different ball game. He might cope but I think it is much more likely he will struggle to make the transition.
 
I am a keen follower of Donald McCain runners at Cheltenham.

He looks set to have his biggest presence yet at the festival with an initial 23 entries, it would be hard to enviasge him walking away empty handed.

His total number of runners at the last three festivals have been;
2012 -19 runners
2011 -15 runners
2010 -10 runners

His stats at the festival from 2003 - 2012 are;

Total £1 LSP Chase Hurdle/Wt Non-hcp Handicap
6-58 +£17 2-24 4-34 3-26 3-32


A closer look at his runners over the four days reveals where he may strike come mid-March, as those he ran over 2m4.5f-3m1.5f won at 5-26 (38), compared to 1-32 over other trips. There were also further clues in the market, with those at 20/1 or shorter 6-31 (+£44), while runners that arrived via Haydock produced 3-11 (+£16)

This brings me to a horse called Lively Barron, who Donald has confirmed needs good ground, something he has not had all season yet has managed to win twice and also finish 3rd in handicap chases. His last two runs, on unsuitable ground, have ensured he is back on a winning mark (126). The fact his last run was at Haydock, this is a proven tactic of Donald's, really catches my eye. Lively Baron is entered for the JLT Speciality Chase (66-1 with Stan James) & the Kim Muir (40-1 most firms).
 
OTB said:
Ballynagour could in theory still go for one of the hurdles...he would be chucked in for the Pipe conditional... :D
Click to expand...

Ballynagour has now got the same chase and hurdle rating of 143. That's a 21 lb rise, but he was marginally out of the weights at Warwick. On the subject of class, he wouldn't be taking much of a hike in terms of race class at all given the Warwick contest was a 0-150 event. Some of the races he's qualified for are actually lower class.
 
rorydelargy said:
Ballynagour has now got the same chase and hurdle rating of 143. That's a 21 lb rise, but he was marginally out of the weights at Warwick. On the subject of class, he wouldn't be taking much of a hike in terms of race class at all given the Warwick contest was a 0-150 event. Some of the races he's qualified for are actually lower class.
Click to expand...

A good point well made and given he's on a steep upward curve he could still have a stone in hand. I'd not be a layer if him.
 
rorydelargy said:
Ballynagour has now got the same chase and hurdle rating of 143. That's a 21 lb rise, but he was marginally out of the weights at Warwick. On the subject of class, he wouldn't be taking much of a hike in terms of race class at all given the Warwick contest was a 0-150 event. Some of the races he's qualified for are actually lower class.
Click to expand...

That would only be a reasonable point if you believe a midweek 0-150 is contested by a similar field to that contesting a Festival race.
 
treetangle said:
That would only be a reasonable point if you believe a midweek 0-150 is contested by a similar field to that contesting a Festival race.
Click to expand...

That's also a salient point, for reasons so ably pointed out by DO in the Betfair Hurdle thread. That apart, 21lbs is still a massive impost, and probably means he'll be carrying a high weight round a stiff Cheltenham, rather than 10st around a sharp Warwick.
 
jft2005 said:
I am a keen follower of Donald McCain runners at Cheltenham.

He looks set to have his biggest presence yet at the festival with an initial 23 entries, it would be hard to enviasge him walking away empty handed.

His total number of runners at the last three festivals have been;
2012 -19 runners
2011 -15 runners
2010 -10 runners

His stats at the festival from 2003 - 2012 are;

Total £1 LSP Chase Hurdle/Wt Non-hcp Handicap
6-58 +£17 2-24 4-34 3-26 3-32


A closer look at his runners over the four days reveals where he may strike come mid-March, as those he ran over 2m4.5f-3m1.5f won at 5-26 (38), compared to 1-32 over other trips. There were also further clues in the market, with those at 20/1 or shorter 6-31 (+£44), while runners that arrived via Haydock produced 3-11 (+£16)

This brings me to a horse called Lively Barron, who Donald has confirmed needs good ground, something he has not had all season yet has managed to win twice and also finish 3rd in handicap chases. His last two runs, on unsuitable ground, have ensured he is back on a winning mark (126). The fact his last run was at Haydock, this is a proven tactic of Donald's, really catches my eye. Lively Baron is entered for the JLT Speciality Chase (66-1 with Stan James) & the Kim Muir (40-1 most firms).
Click to expand...

Donald took in the same meeting at Haydock with Cloudy Lane, prior to his win in the Kim Muir back in 2007.
 
Forget Bensalem.......... ruled out of JLT Specialty Chase for a second time after sustaining another injury.
 
treetangle said:
Kick this off with a couple of questions:-

Ballynagour - where do we think he will go and is he now much too short given that he is going to face a huge step up in class, a much more severe jumping test and a much higher mark?

Already stated I think the Grand Annual would be the best option but the market would seem to indicate Byrne.
Click to expand...

Ballynagour's six options cover a weight range of 11st 10lb (Martin Pipe Hurdle) to 10st7lb (Byrne Group Plate & Grand Annual
 
Tweets from Phil Smith

"If a horse has a rating of much lower than 135, it is unlikely it is going to get in to the JLT"

"X-Country Chase "I would be surprised if you get in under a rating of 128, which is Cool Operator."

"Coral Cup: Average bottom weight last four years has been 132, which is around 10st. If you win a race from now its +5lbs. Maximum field 28."

"Fred Winter: "I think to get in it might be around a 122 rating, which is 10st 2."

"Pertemps + "I would have thought a rating of 132, which is 10st 8 is absolute minimum to get in. 24 maximum field."

"Byrne Group Plate: If Wishfull Thinking goes to the Queen Mother, Hunt Ball will have top weight. Race weights go up 5lbs"

"Kim Muir: I think 129 (No Secrets) will be cut off. Celtic Giant won off 110, Sunnyhillboy 142"

"County Hurdle minimum rating guesstimate 132."

"Martin Pipe. Min weight entry will be 11st, which means this morning's fav Katkeau will need to pick up a penalty to get in"

"Johnny Henderson: the weights to this could rise a considerable amount if Wishfull Thinking and Tataniano come out. Min rating 130?"
 
Back
Top