Cheltenham Handicaps

I think it was someone else who was enthusing about Koshari.....though he was on my shortlist until the final knockings.
 
Well done getting on at much bigger odds, guys.

I said a while back I wouldn't be looking at the handicaps until the 6-day dec stage and I didn't look that closely at Blue Sari even then because I knew I would have to delve back deeper into its older form which I wasn't going to do until it was confirmed, to save myself some time.

I don't know why, but for some reason it was in my mind that it was very prominent in the betting. Maybe I subconsciously remembered its being mentioned on here and conflated things a bit. Dunno.

But for anyone else who hasn't checked it, this is what I've written elsewhere today:

Blue Sari was a close second to Envoi Allen in the bumper here. Last season in his maiden, he beat The Bosses Oscar who was an unlucky plot in the Martin Pipe off 138 and is now 155 on my ratings. Blue Sari was then 6/4f to beat Abacadabras in the Future Champions G1 novice race but bombed into a well-beaten fourth, reportedly blowing hard. Pulled up having “stopped quickly” in his next two runs, he now wears a tongue tie for the first time and carries JP’s first colours. If he’s anywhere near as good as clearly once thought, he must win. I’ve taken 16/1.
 
Grasshopper said:
I think it was someone else who was enthusing about Koshari.....though he was on my shortlist until the final knockings.
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Koshari definitely got a mention at the DRF as an eyecatcher (Maze Runner's race?) but I've checked his form and don't fancy his chances here.
 
You seem confident on this one, DO.

I think I'm going to split stakes between my original fancy Botox Has and Blue Sari. I don't mind two running for me.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
I've had a very close look at the Coral Cup.

Blue Sari might just be a certainty if it's over its breathing problems. It wears a tongue tie for the first time and carries JP's first colours. I've taken 16/1 and wouldn't be surprised if a gamble developed.
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Can anyone explain why it ran so badly at Leopardstown? This is the most complex gamble of all time or a bust and nothing in between. I'd rather back it at 9/2 on Wednesday knowing it's real than 12s now.

I'll put my neck on the line and say it's a bust.
 
Slim said:
Can anyone explain why it ran so badly at Leopardstown? This is the most complex gamble of all time or a bust and nothing in between. I'd rather back it at 9/2 on Wednesday knowing it's real than 12s now.

I'll put my neck on the line and say it's a bust.
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I’d rather back JP’s other two on form. Interesting none the less.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I've had a very close look at the Coral Cup.

Blue Sari might just be a certainty if it's over its breathing problems. It wears a tongue-tie for the first time and carries JP's first colours. I've taken 16/1 and wouldn't be surprised if a gamble developed.
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Birchdale has the white hat
 
Monte Cristo is seriously interesting in the Coral Cup. Watch back his last run and what he does from 2 out. 1
He was 25/1 that day so they couldn't have been expecting much. 12lbs won't be stopping him.
 
I think I saw GH keen on Craigneiche (Coral Cup) in one of the threads. He'll be my main cover bet. He just looks totally unexposed.

Re the JP hats, when I did the race on Monday Blue Sari had the white cap, which is why I mentioned it, but it's possible all the JP horses had white hats at that stage. It's normally the kind of thing I do check but maybe fatigue got the better of me. Still, on balance, I can't see that Birchdale is the main fancy. He always did have a big reputation but has never seemed to fulfil it. He might be a Hendo rabbit-and-hat job but I'm struggling to muster enthusiasm for him.

I plan to have a number of small big-price bets too. At this meeting the value among the longshots can be amazing given the extra places on offer.
 
In the Grand Annual, the more I look at the race the more I'm convinced that Embittered wins. I hate backing relatively short shots in races of this nature and missed out on Chosen Mate last year because I refused to see the woods for the trees, which is what he made his opponents look like in the closing stages. The current 5/1 might disappear but I've got the BOG just in case he ends up opposed.

There's plenty of value in cover bets too.

I'll be doubling Embittered and Blue Sari too.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I think I saw GH keen on Craigneiche (Coral Cup) in one of the threads. He'll be my main cover bet. He just looks totally unexposed.

Re the JP hats, when I did the race on Monday Blue Sari had the white cap, which is why I mentioned it, but it's possible all the JP horses had white hats at that stage. It's normally the kind of thing I do check but maybe fatigue got the better of me. Still, on balance, I can't see that Birchdale is the main fancy. He always did have a big reputation but has never seemed to fulfil it. He might be a Hendo rabbit-and-hat job but I'm struggling to muster enthusiasm for him.

I plan to have a number of small big-price bets too. At this meeting the value among the longshots can be amazing given the extra places on offer.
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When you put it up, I did tell you that Birchdale was wearing the number 1 colours DO.. Blue Sari had the yellow hat...But that's been winning in Ireland of late..
 
Maxbet said:
When you put it up, I did tell you that Birchdale was wearing the number 1 colours DO.. Blue Sari had the yellow hat...But that's been winning in Ireland of late..
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I know you did, Maxbet, that's why I brought it up.

But I wouldn't have said BS was wearing a white had if I hadn't seen it in the card I was looking at.
 
Desert Orchid said:
In the Grand Annual, the more I look at the race the more I'm convinced that Embittered wins. I hate backing relatively short shots in races of this nature and missed out on Chosen Mate last year because I refused to see the woods for the trees, which is what he made his opponents look like in the closing stages. The current 5/1 might disappear but I've got the BOG just in case he ends up opposed.

There's plenty of value in cover bets too.

I'll be doubling Embittered and Blue Sari too.
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I really like zanza. He was tanking in behind sky pirate and ibleo when he came down last time. Those 2 have gone up 17 and 18lb zanza has been kept fresh since and goes off the same mark.

I like embittered's form chance but he struggles to get his head in front
 
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I probably ought to bet with them then as so far I’ve narrowed it down to about 15....:ninja:
 
Maxbet said:
There is a Pertemps qualifier on Monday at Punchestown..Having looked it over I think there is one with the right profile, weight, and dosage to fit into the plot category, He does hold a Pertemps Cheltenham entry too.
Milliner.
As far as his dosage goes, Milliner has a complete (every box) Identical match to Kayf Aramis who won the Pertemps. His profile placement on my charts have him surrounded by the likes of; Kadoun (Ptmps), Rubhahunish (Ptmps), Shuil Ar Aghaidh (Stayers hdl), Dorans Pride (Stayers hdl), Trapper john (Stayers hdl), Karshi (Stayers hdl), Anzio (Stayers hdl), Racing Demon, Bacardy's and Westender.
He has a rating of 121 Irish..could protract to 125 English so he would need to win with a bit of swagger to get a 10Lb penalty that's probably needed to scrape in.
Ran an eye-catching 5th of 20 over an inadequate trip at Navan behind Damalisque after a 762-day absence, which would point to a longer distance being of some benefit.
It's a decent size field on Monday, with many others attempting to do the same thing, so he could be a decent price to start with, being a must-win trier!
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Desert Orchid said:
Good luck with that one, Maxbet. Can I add a caveat?
Let's go with your figures for now and say he's GB 125. He'll need to win by 10 lengths or have them spread out Linda Lovelace style to go up 10lbs to make the cut.
This means he'll need to be a 145 horse, in reality, to win at Cheltenham, given how competitive the final is.
That would ring alarm bells for me since there are plenty already likely to make the cut that will be 10lbs better than their mark as it is.
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Maruco said:
Monday is the day to back him. He'll be trying, and based on what he does you can probably roll-up to the Pertemps if you want to, and the combined returns would most likely be bigger.
He's a good spot in a Pertemps Qualifier, for a horse that needs to be all out to win.
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Desert Orchid said:
He's unlikely to make the cut now. The handicapper will put on 131/132.
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Well, he got in, he’s off bottom weight…. some plot that if it works out…top-rated on RPR…and should have bags of improvement ...15Lb well in

Gigginstown has been known to pull off a coup or two, Rachael in the saddle and the stable flying..

The Gamble has started...


Should go off favourite or there about's :ninja:

Hurtling towards favouritism :rolleyes:
 
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Well done Sky Pirate backers. Fantastic result

Zanza the unlucky horse but the interference too far out to know how he’d have fared


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