Cheltenham Handicaps

D

Double J

At the Start
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Nov 16, 2016
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Early, I know, but Ive usually got a shortlist as long as me **** for horses and potential handicap plots.


Just the two so far, and I could be absolutely way off with both of them.

Whiskey Sour - Martin Pipe
Ciel De Neige - Grand Annual

Theres a couple from Gordons yard for the Coral Cup, but the handicapper could be playing silly buggers this year I reckon
 
The Martin Pipe will be full of unexposed Grade 1 horses. Just look at what won it last year. Whisky Sour wouldn't have a hope for my money.

It's far too early and we must consider that there are unknowns this year. The Irish won the handoicaps 7-2 in 2021 and there was a big media push that the handicapping system is not fair. I would not be confident that all things will be equal this year.
 
The winner of the Martin Pipe this year started his previous race at the Dublin Festival at 100/1. That’s some level of “improvement”. Two runs after the MP, that same horse is 9/4 favourite for the RSA.
 
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I'm not sure there's too much the handicappers can do about the handicapping.

They can't just impose an extra few pounds because so many raiders won in 2021. It has to be more statistically justifiable than that.

What the Irish winners (and placed horses) have going for them is the sheer number of horses with the big trainers. They can run a lot of their horses in the normal decent handicaps through the season knowing they have something at home that's better and that the handicapper doesn't know about. You end up with a handicap containing horses we've hardly heard of representing Mullins, Elliott, De Bromhead etc etc. but each trainer might be represented by two or three such dark ones in the same race so it kind of boils down to educated guesswork over the nuts and bolts of handicapping exposed form.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I'm not sure there's too much the handicappers can do about the handicapping.

They can't just impose an extra few pounds because so many raiders won in 2021. It has to be more statistically justifiable than that.

What the Irish winners (and placed horses) have going for them is the sheer number of horses with the big trainers. They can run a lot of their horses in the normal decent handicaps through the season knowing they have something at home that's better and that the handicapper doesn't know about. You end up with a handicap containing horses we've hardly heard of representing Mullins, Elliott, De Bromhead etc etc. but each trainer might be represented by two or three such dark ones in the same race so it kind of boils down to educated guesswork over the nuts and bolts of handicapping exposed form.
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They make it up as they go along as it is so I wouldn't hold out for anything needing to be justifiable.
 
Similar comments apply to Fiston Des Issards, who I thought was handled very considerately in Journey With Me’s maiden.
 
20s Phoenix Way for the Ultima is interesting.

He travelled well at Ascot as the race went on, when just done for toe against Annsam. He should come on for the run, maybe he will run again in a month or so.

He could do even better on a softer surface me thinks. His best hurdles run was on soft anyways.
 
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I think unless you have genuine inside information about which horses are going for which handicaps, trying to fathom them is a waste of time and energy.

I'm happy to wait until the entries are out before thinking about them and even then I won't get too involved. The five-day decs are when I start getting stuck in.

Mind you, sometimes you come across one that you realise is stupidly well handicapped and is unlikely to go for anything other than a specific handicap, in which case it ends up just a matter of whether it runs, in terms of being worth a punt. And then you might still get some unexposed Irish potential Grade 1 bandit getting in off 140...

Caveat puntor.
 
Remastered qualified for the Pertemps Hurdle back at the beginning of November courtesy of a third place at Aintree and been sent chasing on two occasions since. Wouldn't surprise me to see him end up back in the Pertemps Final.

Coconut Splash (Evan Williams) is currently well handicapped too, could be a candidate for the County Hurdle, there again might not even be targeting a Festival race.
 
Twitter likes Langer Dan in the Martin Pipe. I also like this, too much of a wise guys horse and will be place laid on the day.
 
Anyone know if Frontal Assault is being aimed at one of the handicaps? He got a nightmare run last year behind GDC.
 
Had a nibble at Mister Coffey for the power plate. Plenty of potential if he can put it altogether. Bit more experience needed so hoping for one more run before being aimed at this.
 
DannyB said:
Had a nibble at Mister Coffey for the power plate. Plenty of potential if he can put it altogether. Bit more experience needed so hoping for one more run before being aimed at this.
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I can see the angle, but I couldn’t back Mister Coffey with Monopoly money now. Ive filed the horse alongside Singlfarmpayment etc.

Hoping Palmers Hill rocks up for the plate.
 
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Paddy power plate.

SIRAH DU LAC 40/1 still going well when fell 2 out.last year now moved to Pipe.will be at least 7lb lower this time.

Just looked and hes been dropped to 138 (150 last year) will be lucky to get in now.
140 bottom weight last year.
 
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What would worry me is the fact that Sirah Du Lac is not found in either the RP or ATR database of horses.
 
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