Cheltenham Observations

Bearing in mind I haven't finalised my figures and that a big rating won't always translate from one race to a completely different race...

The figures are up in the air a bit. I'm currently rating the County on Arctic Fire's old OR of 169, which I might revise once I've got the form returns in front of me in hard copy. At the moment I'm rating the Champion Hurdle via MTOY's previous best figure in the race of 167. That's to create a 'best case scenario' situation from which to make any appropriate adjustments. On that basis, Arctic Fire would have been a clear second in the Champion Hurdle (and L'Ami Serge would have been a respectable fourth beaten 8½ lengths) but it's tenuous, of course.

I won't go into the minutiae of my calcs for the Ultima just yet because I want to treble and quadruple check them because they're screaming Gold Cup at me, so all I'll say for now is that UTPT would/could have run very well in the race.

I'm not saying it would have finished fourth, or third or second.

I'm saying it would/could have won the race by clear daylight.

So, depending on just how wrong my figures might be, I reckon there's enough margin for error to say he'd certainly have been 'involved'.

Then, he might improve again by this time next season.

I went high with him last year and had him joint third top-rated but he appears to have improved 8lbs relative to Buywise's rating. If he improves another 8lbs over the year (unlikely to be that much, I accept) it becomes a no-brainer, Coneygreee or no Coneygree, Thistlecrack or no Thistlecrack.

Did I mention the possible laughability of all this?
 
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Very interesting
Although receiving a stone from The pipe horse Singlefarmpayment must still be of massive interest with anything less than a 9lb rise, I'd like to see Tom George put him away now for next seasons Hennessy.
 
fonz said:
Very interesting
Although receiving a stone from The pipe horse Singlefarmpayment must still be of massive interest with anything less than a 9lb rise, I'd like to see Tom George put him away now for next seasons Hennessy.
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You're reading my mind, fonz.
 
For all that Elliott had an amazing festival for Gigginstown, I'm not sure O'Leary's (tetchy or ignorant) comments after Champagne Classic won the Martin Pipe weren't borne from frustration from his best animals not performing during the week - namely Outlander, Death Duty and Empire of Dirt. A little reminder for Gordon that while he would have an emotional attachment to the race, its not what interests the O'Leary's.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
I went high with him last year and had him joint third top-rated but he appears to have improved 8lbs relative to Buywise's rating. If he improves another 8lbs over the year (unlikely to be that much, I accept) it becomes a no-brainer, Coneygreee or no Coneygree, Thistlecrack or no Thistlecrack.Did I mention the possible laughability of all this?
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Why Buywise?
 
Buywise was just one of several who appeared to run to form so he was really just one of several that could have been put up to serve the illustration. I'll need to watch the replay a few more times but it looked to me like he ran his race, didn't make any serious mistakes, didn't get into a bad position and kept going to the line.
 
Respect the view but did I read recently that you corrected a glitch in your figures to address fact that in rating horses coming out of handicaps to graded company...that there was maybe an extra 5lb or so to be factored in there. Cant beat good Graded form and Sizing John was the class horse in the race who is unbeaten over trip - crunching figures to suggest a handicapper would have beaten him is fasttrack to poor house IMO - not every upwardly mobile sort can be a rooster booster.
 
Another interesting fact, not mentioned even in RP race comments, God's Own made a mistake that stopped him to a halt just at the top of the hill 4out. I thought the 2 out jump was enough to take him out of winning the race, but I'm convinced he would've won if he hadn't made those huge jump mistakes at the 4th and 2nd last.
 
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Jambo said:
Respect the view but did I read recently that you corrected a glitch in your figures to address fact that in rating horses coming out of handicaps to graded company...that there was maybe an extra 5lb or so to be factored in there. Cant beat good Graded form and Sizing John was the class horse in the race who is unbeaten over trip - crunching figures to suggest a handicapper would have beaten him is fasttrack to poor house IMO - not every upwardly mobile sort can be a rooster booster.
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I've already allowed for the adjustment, Jambo. (WTF has happened to your team these last few weeks, btw, I wanted them to finish second!)

I don't disagree about good graded form but never underestimate serious handicap form.

I'm not "crunching figures to suggest a handicapper would have beaten [Sizing John]" either. I'm just crunching figures. The figures then tell me how good the form is. It has also served me well down through the decades. It told me Native River wasn't good enough yet he was favourite for a while.

It's not as if I'm doing this blindly.
 
Aughex said:
Another interesting fact, not mentioned even in RP race comments, God's Own made a mistake that stopped him to a halt just at the top of the hill 4out. I thought the 2 out jump was enough to take him out of winning the race, but I'm convinced he would've won if he hadn't made those huge jump mistakes at the 4th and 2nd last.
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I like God's Own. He's an honest, solid, reliable type who's good for helping evaluate form. If he's good enough to win the Champion Chase it can be no better than an average renewal. With Douvan not running his race (yet the final figures suggest he wasn't that far off his best) he was a possible winner.
 
Since you mentioned it and this is an observation thread, I ask the question, why did it took 6 hours for the post-race examination of Douvan to conclude he was lame behind: https://twitter.com/RacingPost/status/842081064080289793. I know there are types that are lame and never discovered but thats because they're not odds on shots and trainers just accept defeat and move to the next race. But here Mullins immediately after the race jumped with the excuse "we'll find something physical"(https://twitter.com/RacingPost/status/842038440292159488) so they shouldn't have taken so many hours for the officials to declare him with a issue, again at least 5 hours if you look at the timestamp of the RP tweet that announced it first.

I just think its much easier to accept the was something wrong with him than its to come to terms the horse lacked experience in top class races against older horses that didn't gave him the lead and his jump mistakes at the 3rd and the one in the backstraight are much more easier than those of God's Own. He's the shortest losing odds-on horse in Cheltenham history and expect him for the Ryanair the following season, just like his other hyped stablemate Vautour. Both horses with high class engines on them but instead of saying just that, they were touted as the greatest one after another, both flopped when it mattered(Douvan still has a long career ahead of him fortunately).

I didn't mentioned UDS in the hype bracket because he was always viewed as the second string in the yard, I have no doubt he would've won the `14 CH and now the CC but it was visible from what he did -going away with Ruby after just few furlongs- in the Ryanair, what race he should've been in. I would've hoped he just missed on the win so the connections and Mullins learn a lesson but alas he lasted home and now on reflection I'm happy for him to finally get a festival victory, even if in a lower-ranked race its still a win.
 
I wouldn't expect any better from your likes, the point wasn't that the report is false. Its why it took so long to detect an injury that apparently made him so `badly underperform` that he still jumped the last fences with no errors.
 
Regarding Douvan's injury, I'm amazed Ruby didn't pull him up, who knows what further damage has been done?
Also the Potts who get some fearsome stick on here, decision well and truly vindicated to move their horses as quite clearly Sizing John had been campaigned over the wrong trip completely.
 
Maurice, I concur. I've been doing the same work over the weekend and I have UTPT coming out marginally ahead of Sizing John. For info I've also backed him ew for next years Gold Cup.

Newbury 2015. The formline that keeps giving! :lol:
 
You'd have to be beating Noble Endeavor further off of a similar weight imo. EoD beat that horse by a greater distance giving him half a stone. Also add in that Pipe doesn't see the most capable of trainers in terms of winning Grade 1's at the Festival.
 
The difference between backing Holywell after the same race was that Holywell was on a huge upward curve after a Jonjo treatment to his first novice chases. Think he won at Catterick. Unfortunately, after Aintree he ended up back as a handicap lurkerafter a lot of crossed fingers in graded company. UTPT is capable of putting up big ratings figures, his win in France shouldnt be forgotten, but its in handicaps. Its great finding value, but its not as if the Holywell line of reasoning worked out.
 
HawkWing said:
...its not as if the Holywell line of reasoning worked out.
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On the contrary. The Holywell line of reasoning worked out very well. Just because it didn't win the Gold Cup didn't mean I was wrong.

This was my table on the day:
3.20 BETFRED CHELTENHAM GOLD CUP CHASE GRADE 1 (CLASS 1) Winner £313,225 18 runners 3m2f110y Good CH4
[TABLE="width: 706"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD]NO.[/TD]
[TD]FORM[/TD]
[TD="colspan: 2"]HORSE[/TD]
[TD]AGE[/TD]
[TD]WGT[/TD]
[TD]TRAINER RTF%[/TD]
[TD]JOCKEY[/TD]
[TD]OR[/TD]
[TD]TS[/TD]
[TD]MON
11-10[/TD]
[TD]Notes[/TD]
[TD]RPR[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]16[/TD]
[TD]41-511[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]Silviniaco Conti [SUP]77[/SUP] p[/TD]
[TD]9[/TD]
[TD]11-10[/TD]
[TD]Paul Nicholls[SUP]60[/SUP][/TD]
[TD]Noel Fehily[/TD]
[TD]174[/TD]
[TD]152[/TD]
[TD]176[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]182[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]14[/TD]
[TD]21211[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]Road To Riches [SUP]75[/SUP][/TD]
[TD]8[/TD]
[TD]11-10[/TD]
[TD]Noel Meade[SUP]57[/SUP][/TD]
[TD]Bryan Cooper[/TD]
[TD]167[/TD]
[TD]153[/TD]
[TD]170[/TD]
[TD]+p[/TD]
[TD]176[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]4[/TD]
[TD]13/111[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]Coneygree [SUP]34[/SUP] [/TD]
[TD]8[/TD]
[TD]11-10[/TD]
[TD]Mark Bradstock[/TD]
[TD]Nico de Boinville[/TD]
[TD]166[/TD]
[TD]156[/TD]
[TD]168[/TD]
[TD]p[/TD]
[TD]173[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]12[/TD]
[TD]2-8626[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]On His Own [SUP]33[/SUP] p [/TD]
[TD]11[/TD]
[TD]11-10[/TD]
[TD]W P Mullins[SUP]66[/SUP][/TD]
[TD]Mr P W Mullins[/TD]
[TD]164[/TD]
[TD]147[/TD]
[TD]167[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]174[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]6[/TD]
[TD]41111[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]Don Cossack [SUP]57[/SUP] t[/TD]
[TD]8[/TD]
[TD]11-10[/TD]
[TD]Gordon Elliott[SUP]52[/SUP][/TD]
[TD]Davy Condon[/TD]
[TD]166[/TD]
[TD]149[/TD]
[TD]166[/TD]
[TD]?[/TD]
[TD]173[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]15[/TD]
[TD]5P-113[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]Sam Winner [SUP]75[/SUP] tp [/TD]
[TD]8[/TD]
[TD]11-10[/TD]
[TD]Paul Nicholls[SUP]60[/SUP][/TD]
[TD]Sam Twiston-Davies[/TD]
[TD]162[/TD]
[TD]138[/TD]
[TD]166[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]172[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]7[/TD]
[TD]11-3U1[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]Holywell [SUP]29[/SUP] b [/TD]
[TD]8[/TD]
[TD]11-10[/TD]
[TD]Jonjo O´Neill[SUP]38[/SUP][/TD]
[TD]Richie McLernon[/TD]
[TD]163[/TD]
[TD]147[/TD]
[TD]165[/TD]
[TD]++[/TD]
[TD]174[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]10[/TD]
[TD]61-373[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]Lord Windermere [SUP]33[/SUP] [/TD]
[TD]9[/TD]
[TD]11-10[/TD]
[TD]J H Culloty[SUP]50[/SUP][/TD]
[TD]Davy Russell[/TD]
[TD]165[/TD]
[TD]148[/TD]
[TD]165[/TD]
[TD]+[/TD]
[TD]174[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]11[/TD]
[TD]B4-111[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]Many Clouds [SUP]48[/SUP] [/TD]
[TD]8[/TD]
[TD]11-10[/TD]
[TD]Oliver Sherwood[SUP]62[/SUP][/TD]
[TD]Leighton Aspell[/TD]
[TD]165[/TD]
[TD]149[/TD]
[TD]165[/TD]
[TD]p[/TD]
[TD]173[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2[/TD]
[TD]13244[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]Boston Bob [SUP]33[/SUP][/TD]
[TD]10[/TD]
[TD]11-10[/TD]
[TD]W P Mullins[SUP]66[/SUP][/TD]
[TD]Paul Townend[/TD]
[TD]161[/TD]
[TD]145[/TD]
[TD]164[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]169[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]3[/TD]
[TD]U6-151[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]Carlingford Lough [SUP]33[/SUP][/TD]
[TD]9[/TD]
[TD]11-10[/TD]
[TD]John E Kiely[SUP]33[/SUP][/TD]
[TD]A P McCoy[/TD]
[TD]166[/TD]
[TD]138[/TD]
[TD]164[/TD]
[TD]p[/TD]
[TD]173[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]9[/TD]
[TD]6U-222[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]Houblon Des Obeaux [SUP]34[/SUP] [/TD]
[TD]8[/TD]
[TD]11-10[/TD]
[TD]Venetia Williams[SUP]40[/SUP][/TD]
[TD]Aidan Coleman[/TD]
[TD]161[/TD]
[TD]153[/TD]
[TD]164[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]172[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]18[/TD]
[TD]13-754[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]The Giant Bolster [SUP]48[/SUP] hv [/TD]
[TD]10[/TD]
[TD]11-10[/TD]
[TD]David Bridgwater[SUP]64[/SUP][/TD]
[TD]Tom Scudamore[/TD]
[TD]157[/TD]
[TD]146[/TD]
[TD]164[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]174[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]615-8[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]Bobs Worth [SUP]75[/SUP] [/TD]
[TD]10[/TD]
[TD]11-10[/TD]
[TD]Nicky Henderson[SUP]52[/SUP][/TD]
[TD]Barry Geraghty[/TD]
[TD]166[/TD]
[TD]142[/TD]
[TD]160[/TD]
[TD]+
((179))[/TD]
[TD]171[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]5[/TD]
[TD]11F-81[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]Djakadam [SUP]50[/SUP][/TD]
[TD]6[/TD]
[TD]11-10[/TD]
[TD]W P Mullins[SUP]66[/SUP][/TD]
[TD]R Walsh[/TD]
[TD]162[/TD]
[TD]151[/TD]
[TD]158[/TD]
[TD]++[/TD]
[TD]164[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]17[/TD]
[TD]112-52[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]Smad Place [SUP]48[/SUP][/TD]
[TD]8[/TD]
[TD]11-10[/TD]
[TD]Alan King[SUP]40[/SUP][/TD]
[TD]Wayne Hutchinson[/TD]
[TD]154[/TD]
[TD]138[/TD]
[TD]156[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]164[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]8[/TD]
[TD]7P-1F7[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]Home Farm [SUP]33[/SUP][/TD]
[TD]8[/TD]
[TD]11-10[/TD]
[TD]Henry De Bromhead[SUP]80[/SUP][/TD]
[TD]D J Casey[/TD]
[TD]153[/TD]
[TD]99[/TD]
[TD]153[/TD]
[TD]o[/TD]
[TD]157[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]13[/TD]
[TD]U58P14[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]River Choice [SUP]20[/SUP] tb[/TD]
[TD]12[/TD]
[TD]11-10[/TD]
[TD]R Chotard[/TD]
[TD]David Cottin[/TD]
[TD]140[/TD]
[TD]—[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]144[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]

Most of you already know I’m already on Holywell at 50/1 (last March) and Road To Riches (after he beat Rocky Creek) at 20/1 so I’m not sure there’s any point in adding to them. Assuming Bobs Worth can’t rediscover his old brilliance I think Silviniaco Conti is the best in the field on known form but I thought that about Wayward Lad when he was at the height of his powers. If he goes and wins, fair enough. I do suspect both of mine can improve past him anyway. I also think Lord Windermere will more than confirm last year’s form with On His Own and The Giant Bolster. My figure for Djakadam is as conservative as I can get it but all the reports coming from the race agree that he was still very much in need of the run yet he never came out of third gear. This will be a much different test as they’re sure to go a real gallop. He might well win but I’m not prepared to play at those odds to find out. I see Lord Windermere is 18/1. That’s worth a saver and I’m such a fan of Bobs Worth I’d dearly love to see him win so I might cover all the other bets with enough on him to do so.
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Holywell was earmarked the year before as being entirely under the radar and improving but he had only won the Ultima off a mark in mid-140s. I had him on 163 for that. He proved it right next time out at Aintree by winning the Bowl and got 169 for it. He was value at the time at 50/1. He ran to 168 in that Gold Cup.

UTPT has beaten a stronger Ultima field under a 10lbs or so higher mark and carrying top weight.
 
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had a long post written out.

Had you quoted the full sentence it would be handy. 'Its great finding value'

UTPT like Holywell is the value and from that perspective is definitely worthy of a punt. Holywell didnt have the class to win any open graded chase. He progressed from a very low handicap base as a novice to win at Aintree and prove your cheltenham rating correct. However he struggled when the graded novices improved in their second season. There are always a few weight carrying handicappers (those who didnt contest graded novice events or the more traditional trials route) who can progress to run well in the Gold Cup. UTPT is a good shout for next years. Champagne West and arguably Saphir du Rheu was this years. But I think Synchronised is the only one that has won since the 90s.
 
For some reason the system isn't letting me edit posts.I wanted to say that we shouldn't forget that Djakadam came through the handicaps in that race against Coneygree. Only seven weeks earlier he'd won the Thyestes off just 145 (what kind of cert must he have been that day!)
 
Un Temp Por tous would have fight the gold cup
as Arctic Fire could have won the Champion hurdle on what he did in the county
 
Djakadam is a bit of an anomaly. He was a second season chaser and was as well handicapped for the Hennessey. Had he not bombed there, he wouldnt have been doing his prep in the thyestes. On His Own maybe a better example.
 
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