Cheltenham Observations

tiggers1972 said:
Regarding Douvan's injury, I'm amazed Ruby didn't pull him up, who knows what further damage has been done?
Also the Potts who get some fearsome stick on here, decision well and truly vindicated to move their horses as quite clearly Sizing John had been campaigned over the wrong trip completely.
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Idiotic comment about Sizing John.
 
I mean, The JLT wasn't an option in those two horse's times and for the sake of my 'roll I wish Henry had run him over further as a novice chaser. But it's not done him any harm ultimately.
 
He won a gold cup swinging in like a very good horse and yet his career to date is being questioned - Get a grip

Even Harrington mentioned who had done all the work on him from purchase to breaking in to prepping

And now he is a gold cup winner

I wish all horses had their careers thwarted like that
 
SJ ran great races in the Supreme & the Arkle. Wasn't HdB's fault he kept bumping into a brilliant horse.

From what i've read it sounds like it was Robbie Power that first raised the idea of stepping him up in trip so maybe it may not have happened this soon under HdB but with Alan Potts at the helm it surely would have been done at some stage anyway.

Harsh to say he was campaigned badly and glad for Henry that Special Tiara won either side of Supasundae and SJ's wins. It would have been a tough week for him if he hadn't and he's a good guy.
 
Apropos of nothing.

Was waiting air-side in Bham for flight home on Friday and due to weather delays in Dublin there was a large gathering of ~1000+ Irish racegoers in the open area. Jessie H walked in and spontaneously everybody stood and applauded. HdeB was in the lounge at the time and I would have been very surprised if he didn't join in being (a) from Waterford and (b) a gentleman. Nice moment.

(ps..JH celebrated with a glass of fizzy water.)
 
Aughex said:
In theory yes the chasers are slower due to the size of the obstacle but some slow down before jumping them and lose momentum. At the festival most of the chasers are brave, good enough jumpers and also their height allows them to treat the fences similarly to how some small hurdlers jump over timber.
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I have to question this Aughex. The festival is irrelevant when it comes to chasers v hurdlers speed at jumping. A similar level of horse, whether that be OHR 100 v 100 or 150 v 150 will always run faster over hurdles, unless defying the law of physics. Its always easier to jump lower to maintain speed than higher, when both animals are equal in ability.

If you convert Arctic Fire's times to running with no obstacle compared to Altior running with no obstacle you will find Altior faster over those last 3 obstacles.
 
Yes, as I said in theory they should be faster but practice always beats theory. Regarding AF vs Altior, that was my point exactly, AF ran almost a mile(3 out on New Course) while Altior only 4f(3 out on Old Course) yet AF still was faster on average for twice the distance. He was also carrying 8 lb more than Altior. That doesn't mean much except maybe to realize how much slower they were going in the Arkle until about 3 out. Altior performance can only be properly appreciated using the finishing sectionals rather than the amateur eyes that saw him struggling to get the better of Charbel.
 
Aughex said:
Yes, as I said in theory they should be faster but practice always beats theory..
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You have not suggested though how that is possible. Its physically impossible to run as fast when jumping higher obstacles. A similar comparison would be to say that its possible to run the 110m hurdles at an Olympics final faster per metre than a 100 metre final with no obstacles. Its pretty obvious that with lower obstacles or no obstacles that a faster time is always going to happen. You are trying to go against physics, but give no explantion of how that is possible. The fact that its the festival is irrelevant.
 
Its possible because we're not comparing the same horse over different obstacles. In your theory based world, Altior should be slower than every hurdler just because he runs over fences. But in practice he's so good that only a CH horse like AF can beat his times(carrying the 8lb for a half a mile farther should also be noted but its not relevant)
 
Aughex said:
In your theory based world, Altior should be slower than every hurdler
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I didn't say every hurdler, I said horses of a similar ability. If you check the standard times for the same distance for hurdles or chases at any course where thats possible, the hurdle time is always faster. The standard time means that those times are for horses of similar ability and weight carried. Its always going to be easier to put faster times in jumping smaller obstacles, no matter how its spun.
 
Well thats how its possible for a horse like Altior to be faster even than hurdlers, because he's of a greater ability hence practice beats theory. Chasers by default have alot more scope over fences but its very hard to compare even the same horse over different obstacles because some jump the hurdles like fences and some very tall horses like Douvan simply hurdle the fences. The RP time difference is because in practice trainers choose the speedier types to remain hurdling and the ones with scope chasing. For a full race where they jump 8-10 fences that amounts to a second/two or more, but we were talking about from 3 out, which means only 2 obstacles and that amounts to fractions of a second which really isn't relevant.
 
Just watched the Champion Chase again. Special Tiara was handed the race on a plate at the top of the hill. You can see all the other jockeys sat in behind Douvan wondering when Ruby was going to make his move. By the time they realised it wasn't happening Special Tiara had been allowed to coast down the hill and fill up his lungs before they managed to get to him.

Fox Norton did well to get as close as he did.
 
Aughex said:
Well thats how its possible for a horse like Altior to be faster even than hurdlers, because he's of a greater ability hence practice beats theory. Chasers by default have alot more scope over fences but its very hard to compare even the same horse over different obstacles because some jump the hurdles like fences and some very tall horses like Douvan simply hurdle the fences. The RP time difference is because in practice trainers choose the speedier types to remain hurdling and the ones with scope chasing. For a full race where they jump 8-10 fences that amounts to a second/two or more, but we were talking about from 3 out, which means only 2 obstacles and that amounts to fractions of a second which really isn't relevant.
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Altior ran over fences for 2m1/2f on the less exacting Old Course.

Arctic Fire ran over hurdles for 2m1f on the more exacting New Course.

The ground was different both days.

There is absolutely no point in comparing these races to determine anything whatsoever.
 
Its interesting that McCoy said before the race that sometimes they run this faster than the CH because there's so many handicappers that take each other on. They also watered the New Course by 10ml on Wednesday night. Arctic Fire proved him right and in the last mile to still run faster per furlong(13.65 s/f) than Altior did in his last 4f(13.72 s/f), was something I thought worth mentioning on this thread..
 
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Aughex said:
Its interesting that McCoy said before the race that sometimes they run this faster than the CH because there's so many handicappers that take each other on. They also watered the New Course by 10ml on Wednesday night. Arctic Fire proved him right and in the last mile to still run faster per furlong(13.65 s/f) than Altior did in his last 4f(13.72 s/f), was something I thought worth mentioning on this thread..
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Its worth mentioning obviously, but it proves nothing because hurdlers run faster than chasers. It tells you nothing of comparative worth, because logic decrees that Arctic Fire should be faster than Altior. I'll just say again, check out same course and distance chase and hurdle race standard times, the chase time is always slower.
 
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[h=1]BHA NEWS & BLOGS[/h]




<main role="main" id="main-article" class="grid-wrapper cf full-width main-article-section no-right-pad no-left-pad" style="border: 0px; margin: 40px 0px 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; display: inline; width: 1128.3125px; clear: both; float: left; position: relative; min-height: 650px;"><article class="article-body ab-width nine-col post-16975 post type-post status-publish format-standard hentry category-bha-handicappers-blog category-bha-head-ofhandicappers-blog category-uncategorized" style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 20px; box-sizing: border-box; display: inline; clear: none; float: left; position: relative; width: 864.703125px;">[h=2]CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL 2017: HEAD OF HANDICAPPING BLOG/ 21 MAR 17[/h][h=4]SIZING JOHN LEADS THE YOUNG BRIGADE TO A 1-2-3.[/h]There were only three seven year olds that ran in this year’s Timico Cheltenham Gold Cup and they finished first, second and third, writes Phil Smith. That is encouraging for the future as there is every chance that Sizing John, Minella Rocco and Native River are all still progressing.
The hard thing for trainers is keeping these top horses sound. The first four in the betting on 1st November last year, Coneygree, Don Cossack, Vautour and Thistlecrack never made it to the start line this year. I had Djakadam performing to 165 at Punchestown last April, when winning the John Durkan in early December and when beaten just over 2.25 lengths at Christmas in the Lexus. He is so consistent so assuming that he has run to 165 again, it brings Native River and Minella Rocco to 166 at Cheltenham and Sizing John to 170 as I believe he was three lengths up most of the way up the run in and won a shade comfortably.
SizingJohn-17.03.17-1.jpg

A figure of 170 puts him at the same level as Best Mate was as a seven year old when winning the first of his three Gold Cups. Good company; and hopefully young enough to go higher in time. His performances this season have been 161, 165, 167 and now 170 so he is clearly moving in the right direction.
[h=4]MIGHT BITE’S DRAMATIC RSA[/h]The most dramatic winner of the week was undoubtedly Might Bite (161) in the RSA. He had looked capable of a performance in the 160’s when falling at Kempton over Christmas and so it proved despite a tendency to run down the path back to the stables. However given what happened in the race what do you call the winning margin? I called it 6lb. deciding that if he had to give that weight to Whisper (155) at Newbury in the autumn in the new Ladbroke race, I would not know who would win.
Might-Bite-15.3.17-61.jpg

It puts him on the same figure as Denman was after his RSA victory over a much weaker field in 2007. He subsequently won the Hennessy off 161 the following autumn. I am now asking Might Bite to do the same. Bobs Worth from the same stable won the RSA and then the Hennessy off 160 in 2012. I believe Might Bite is in that league BUT will his temperament get the better of him?
[h=4]‘TOUGH’ TIGER ROLL’S WIN IN THE GRADE 2 JT MCNAMARA NATIONAL HUNT CHASE[/h]
Tiger-Roll-14.3.17-61-480x373.jpg
Tiger Roll (155) won the Grade 2 JT McNamara National Hunt Chase. Very unusually for a novice chaser winning at the Festival Tiger Roll was having his fourteenth run in the last year including eleven chases, two over hurdles and one run on the flat. Already a winner of the Munster National, this horse is clearly tough and is sure to be running in another National over the next year or so. He has gone somewhat under the radar but now he has stepped up in distance I am sure he will become a more well-known name.
It is important to realise that the BHA Handicappers are a team who work together so the personal criticism that I received in the run up to Cheltenham was disappointing. We have been keeping Irish performance figures now for 12 years. We have regularly monitored their success rates which enabled us to tweak our methodology and ensure they are competitive. The reality is that we want close exciting finishes and we want to set handicap puzzles that people find intriguing to solve.

Below are the seven Irish-trained winners and what they were rated in Ireland when we compiled the handicaps:
Tully East won off 138 (133 in Ireland)
Supasundae won off 148 (145 in Ireland)
Presenting Percy won off 146 (140 in Ireland)
Road To Respect won off 145 (143 in Ireland)
Arctic Fire won off 158 (no rating in Ireland)
Champagne Classic won off 138 (137 in Ireland)
Rock The World won off 147 (147 in Ireland)
You can see a real mixture of differences and one figure the same. This is because, just like with Timeform and Racing Post Ratings, different form students place different interpretations on the same pieces of form. What is clear is that higher does not necessarily mean badly handicapped.
The results showed that Irish trained horses won 70% of the handicaps from 30% of the runners. However that is quite a small statistical sample and I much prefer to look at the placed horses (first four) over the twelve years.
British Trained Placed horses 2006-2017: 356 from 2246 runners at 15.9%
Irish Trained Placed horses 2006-2017: 150 from 609 runners at 24.6%
As a result my team will be adopting the same policy next year.
What was fascinating this year is the weight carried by the 10 handicap winners
11-12, 11-08, 11-04, 11-05, 11-1, 10-13, 11-04, 11-12, 11-03 and 11-05
Although we work as a team we are very competitive and want our individual races to have the closest finishes. There is no doubt that Dave Dickinson won our internal competition this year. He is responsible for;
The Fred Winter – The winning distances were a neck and a neck
The County Hurdle – The winning distances were also a neck and a neck
You would be happy if these were the winning distances in a 2m handicap on the flat but remember there were eight flights of hurdles in the way in these races. Hats off to Dave.

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Yes thats some legacy, for Arzal, The Game Changer & L'Ami Serge as well who all beat him by 10-20 lengths in only his last 5 runs. Hm I don't think it really works that way, 2 miles form then 3 miles form bunched up together. When they met last time this season, Simply Ned was 7 lengths behind Sizing John. How outclassed was he in the CC?
 
That was John's first run of the season, he came on a bunch for that - as evidenced by the extra distance he put into Black Hercules next time.
 
SJ would have been under the pump along way out but he may well have won the QM. NH would then have been thinking that he should have sent Vaniteux this route.
You would have to think he would have beaten SL in the Ryanair!

SL in the Gold Cup next year!
 
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