Cheltenham Preview Nights

His thinking was Kauto doesn't handle Cheltenham, Denman won't come back, hennessy is too close to GC for NC and that Barbershop is a 7 year old on the way up, who likes Cheltenham who will improve over GC trip
 
I was at the Roscommon Preview Night last night, my notes.......

RW: Ruby Walsh; TW: Ted Walsh; NC: Nina Carberry; TM: Tony Mullins; KW: Ken Whelan

Supreme Novice:
TM: Cousin Vinny is the new Istabraq, the bet of the meeting
TW: Cousin Vinny nailed on unless something unforseen happens
NC: Agrees with Vinny, the only worry is the big field
KW: Shoreacres is worth an interest EW
RW: Vinny not confirmed but most likely to go to the Supreme, very hard to beat. Pipes wont get up the hill, Michael Flips EW worth a shot, worked very well after the RP Chase meeting. Kempes would need to improve an awful lot

The Arkle:
RW: Disappointed in Tatenen last time, might have been the journey over that unsettled him. Not a Calgary Bay fan, Forpadytheplasterer will finish second to anything. Gold and Silver would be an EW bet.
TM: Tatenen an ungenuine favourite, not good enough. Possibly the worst Arkle of all time
TW: Don't give back the Cousin Vinny money here, a bookies race this year. "You don't have to bet in every race"

Champion Hurdle:
RW: I've been 2nd in a couple and I'd love to win it. Celestial Halo is in great form but if Binocular gets up the hill he wins it. There is nothing in the race good enough to get it off the bridle. Crack Away Jack should be fav for the Arkle right now, Sublimity worked poorly last week, Harchibald is the best of Meades, Jered wouldn't win it downhill never mind uphill. Osana will go from the front to suit the owner which will play right into Binoculars hands.
KW: Fancied Celestial Halo or Sublimity off a fast pace
TM: Fav has done nothing wrong, a class horse, there is nothing to beat him. Brave Ica is as old as Dev, Jered not good enough, Muirhear 1/2 furlong off this level. LAst years CH was one of the worst ever. Won in the Dark is the EW bet in the race.
TW: Would have liked to seen more of Won In The Dark, and Brave Inca is worth a shot EW at about 33/1. Fav should win but very skimpy.

Cross Country:
NC: Garde Champetre is carrying a lot of weight this year for a small horse. Should carry it if the ground is ok, had no problem lumping 12st4 around Punchestown. L'Ami getting weight makes him the one to beat. A New Story is well enough in and Dix Ville also getting a nice bit of weight.
KW: Wonderkids chances dependent on the ground, must be good. Drombeg is the best handicapped horse in the race but LAmi is the class act.
TW: LAmi a non trier the last day, but its a classy race this year. Dix Ville ran well in Galway, but its probably be between the top two. Wonderkid has no chance, needs a miracle and its Cheltenham not Rome!


Ballymore:
RW: No idea who runs yet. Willies horse needs soft ground but hopes he gets there. Karabak is small but tough, a shell of a horse. Mikael DHaguenet one of his better rides of the week if he runs.
NC: Mikael DHaguenet has a turn of foot and will stay, hard to beat.
TW: Willis has three marvelous horses this year and Mikael DHaguenet has been impressive. According to Dick has an EW chance.
KW: Hard to oppose Willie and Ruby here. Doesn't fancy Diamond Harry at all
TM: If Diamond Harry did win this then Bensalem is the bet of the meeting (another one)! Willie doesn't want to run Mikael DHaguenet but connections are keen

Champion Chase:
RW: 1/3 doesn't mean Master Minded is gone by! Anything can happen but he is head and shoulders above anything else in the field. Twist Magic a great bet without the fav as the rest aren't good enough.
Tidal Bay was worse than bad at Doncaster the other day
TW: You would be hard up for a bet to back a 1/3 shot but you would be very hard up to back something to beat Master Minded here.
KW: Tony Mullins will bear his arse off Athlone bridge if Master Minded is beaten
TM: Master Minded is the best horse he has ever seen in his life, sit back and enjoy. Its embarassing to have Big Zeb in the betting, there is about 18st between the two horses.


Sun Alliance:
TW: Ground important here, if its good Cooldine has a big shout but if soft Carruthers is the one.
NC: Casey Jones on a bit of nice ground has a chance, a nice EW bet.
RW: Always liked Cooldine, the 2nd highest rated novice last year. Nicholls is sweet on What a Friend
KW: Likes Gone To Lunch, would be 7/2 with a top trainer. Could be the one to upset Rubys horse.
TM: Goes for What A Friend without much confidence. Willie, though, has trained the only 2 Irish trained winners since 95

Ryanair:
RW: Voy Por Ustedes is a cert, the only grade 1 horse in the race. ScotsIrish will run well if the ground is good.
KW: Tidal Bay could run well but the fav deserves to be so. Monets Garden worth an interest EW
NC: Cant go past Voy Por, a class horse.
TM: Voy Por a genuine Grade 1 horse and has proven that many times. Doen't think Tidal Bay will run. Massinis Maguire might be worth an interest EW
TW: Not very original but Voy Por. Scots Irish if it was quickish ground - trip would suit nicely.

Bumper:

TW: Willie has 1/3 of the runners, and Patrick will be on the best of them.
NC: No ride yet. Quinola Des Obeaux a lovely horse but Cheltenham may not suit him.Cadspeed has been beaten by an ordinary horse before and would to improve even more. Rite Of Passage won over 2m3 in a very truly run race. Dunguib impressed me at Navan but takes a fierce hold and will need to settle better. Swinbaks horse is a nice EW bet here.
RW: Don't know yet what he'll be on, Patrick rides Sicilian Secret. Gagewell Flyer and Cranky Corner have been within a nose of each other since they have been at Willies. Lois A Choill has been working well at home. Would worry about Dunguib getting worked up, lots of bumpers lost before the start because of this. Sicilian Secret is the best of Willies. Meath All Star is a hell of a horse and has been slightly forgotten about.
TM: Dermot Weld told his mother he would beat all of Willies horses this year with Rite Of Passage - has a poor record at Cheltenham though (Ruby piped up it was no worse that Tony's!)
KW: Swinbanks has been laid out nicely for this. Rite of Passage was very impressive at a schooling bumper at Thurles, very relaxed, very professional.

Triumph:
NC: Ebadiyan will appreciate the hill and will finish ahead of Jumbo Rio. Master Of Arts is the reason why Torphichen is in the Supreme, very well fancied.
RW: All of these have one thing in common - they are all very slow, apart from Starluck. No stars here this year, Starluck wins if he gets the trip.
KW: Ebadiyan the toughest 4yo in Ireland, better on good ground. Good EW value. Starluck looks the class horse.
TM: Rang Barry Geraghty before the preview and Zaynar is his best ride of the week, really fancies him.
TW: Agrees with Eddie O'Grady that Jumbo Rio will finish in front of Ebadiyan again and he is the best of the Irish. Also likes Lethal Weapon. Would love to see Starluck win this. Zaynar is poor value, he is a poor jumper and worked terribly recently

Stayers:
TW: Has to be impressed with Kasbah Bliss, has too much gears for the others. Fair Along is a bit of EW value. Big Bucks will finish ahead of Punchestowns again.
NC: Kasbah Bliss the one to beat, a good bit of toe and stays well
RW: No front runner and you would need a strong gallop to beat Kasbah Bliss. Powerstation may as well stay in the parade ring. The others need to turn it into a slog to beat Kasbah Bliss.
KW: Big Bucks has a great chance, but has a fancy for Whatuthink at a huge price. A tough horse and might be the one to go on and can stay there for a place.
TM: Kasbah Bliss had his chance last year, beaten by an "auld lad". Barry Geraghty thinks Punchestowns will win this. Hendersons worked on the AW surface last week and "won't be doing it again"

Gold Cup:
RW: I think I'm on the right one with Kauto. Neptuner was very good in the Hennesy but he should hold him. Denman was poor last Friday but has gone a whole lot better since. Doesn't think he can come to himself quickly enough though. Would love to win to stick it up Tom Scudamore. Barbers Shop isn't "within an asses roar" of this level, War Of Attrition is "gone"
NC: Thought Denman didn't look right last time, not properly muscled in behind and the colour looked wrong.
TM: Master Minded may have broken the trends last year Kauto is not in the same "Super League" as him and won't beat the trends. Denman probably won't run and if he does he will be pulled up (Ruby was adamant he is running). Madison De Berlais is useless around Cheltenham, Barbers Shop is just not good enough. Neptune Collonges for him.
KW: Big fan of Kautobut he didn't travel at all well last year. Can't see the others getting near him. Sam Thomas could be reaching for the Gaviscom at the top of the hill. War Of Attrition is a safe lepper and is good EW value if the ground is right.
TW: All depends which Kauto turns up, and you will probably know in the parade ring. Exotic Dancer is a cert to be placed.

Bismarks:
TM: Denman
TW: None
KW: Willies bumper horses
RW: Diamond Harry
NC: Willies bumper horses

Charity Bets:
TM: Voy Por Ustedes
KW: Whatuthink EW
TW: Mikael DHaguenet alt Cousin Vinny
NC: Cousin Vinny
RW: Ireland 4 or 5 winners
 
At the risk of information overload I was sent this.....


CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL PREVIEW EVENING REPORTS

Maynooth

Wednesday 4th March



The panel was chaired by Tony O’Hehir (TO’H) and featured Gold Cup winning trainer Tom Taaffe (TT), Champion Hurdle winning trainer Dessie Hughes (DH), BBC, ATR and Daily Telegraph broadcaster and journalist Jim McGrath (JM) who was mainly giving a British perspective, leading Irish racing journalist Damien McIlroy (DM) who was on particularly good form, the official Irish handicapper Noel O’Brien (NO’B) and Champion Hurdle winning jockey Philip Carberry (PC). And it was a late one!



SUPREME NOVICES’ HURDLE



TT: I don’t think Patrick Mullins riding will be a problem as Cousin Vinny oozes class and did enough to fall at Leopardstown but didn’t. I don’t want to oppose him as he is different class to these.

DH: I would have been a Cousin Vinny fan with Ruby on but I honestly think you need a professional jockey for Cheltenham. Patrick will find it very hard and totally different from bumpers but he might be okay if he has him in the first three throughout. I prefer Kempes whose best form on the Flat was on good ground and Ruby rides. I would rather back him. It is a big ask for a four-year-old like Torphichen.

JM: Torphichen is a progressive horse but Red Moloney has only been winning small beer. The best value is 14/1 each-way about Medermit who showed a lot of courage at Ascot.

DM: Willie Mullins has had two big priced winners of this race so don’t be forgetting Kempes as well as Cousin Vinny. He will need good ground though. Cousin Vinny has all the attributes but his jumping does worry me. I think Red Moloney and Go Native may empty up the hill. The Mullins pair for me.

NO’B: It is a less than vintage running and Cousin Vinny can win if he runs here. Go Native was going every bit as well as Hurricane Fly until making a last flight mistake but his high head carriage would worry me. Four-year-olds have a good record which is a positive for Torphichen.

PC: Go Native travels very well and I can see Paul hanging on to him to deliver a late challenge picking off beaten horses and rates a good each-way bet.




ARKLE TROPHY



TT: I don’t think the Irish are strong. They say Tatenen travelled over badly last time and if he is back in the form of earlier in the season he is a worthy favourite.

DH: I like Forpadydeplasterer a lot. I think 2m2f would be his ideal trip so a fast run 2m will suit.

JM: Calgary Bay is no value and reckon he is a three-miler in the making so could be found out for pace. I would forgive Tatenen his last run. He is very, very highly rated by the Nicholls team and I will side with him despite his latest run. Planet Of Sound is still climbing and has the potential to go close.

DM: Tatenen did not give his true running at Leopardstown as Thomas rode a waiting race which was wrong. I don’t fancy Calgary Bay and Forpadydeplasterer is an enigma and a short runner three times finishing second in Grade 1 races this season. I don’t think Kalahari King and Planet Of Sound will get their ground.

NO’B: Follow The Plan beat Tatenen and will be 11lbs better off yet is 20/1 whilst the other is 9/2. I’msingingtheblues is back to taking on novices after going handicapping and that usually brings a novice on. At 10/1 he is value.

PC: Kalahari King ran fourth in the Supreme and then won at Punchestown and has been trained purely for this race by Ferdy Murphy who excels with chasers at this meeting so he is the one for me.





CHAMPION HURDLE



TT: I would be against Binocular at the price. I thought McCoy made him look better than he is at Ascot. He gave him a squeeze and a slap on the shoulder but he didn’t move away as I thought he might and good-to-soft is not going to help him. He is very beatable. The bet of the race is Brave Inca each-way who is tough and will love how hard this race will be run at. I am not saying he will win but he is a good place bet.

DH: If Binocular is as good at Ascot as he looked he will take a lot of beating but the vibes after his recent gallop were not good. I fancy Celestial Halo in a big way. He is dead solid, loves the track, stays and has pace and is a streetfighter. He will take some knocking back. Hardy Eustace has had mucus problems on his last two runs but we hope he is now right.

JM: I don’t think Binocular is a good thing by any stretch of the imagination. I think they were shocked how unfit he was for his gallop last week and are desperately trying to make up the fitness in a short space of time which is not a good thing for his chances. Sentry Duty is interesting but I like Punjabi. Things have not gone to plan this season as he fell at Kempton and then needed the run at Wincanton but I have heard he has progressed extremely well since then and at 20/1 is great value.

DM: The hill is a question mark for Binocular and I can watch him at 6/4 all day in a Champion Hurdle. The mystery horse is Sizing Europe who is brilliant on his day and I would rather take a chance at 14/1 on him. Watering will take the top off the ground which will make Sublimity vulnerable. Brave Inca is also a player and don’t forget Won In The Dark at a big price.

NO’B: This is as good a Champion Hurdle for a while. Binocular is top rated and I thought he came up the hill last year. Sublimity ran well last year after an interrupted preparation and can be the best of the Irish.

PC: Sublimity is in good form and breezed well at the weekend and scoped well afterwards and his blood was fine today. He is in as good form as he was before he won over Christmas and I couldn’t rule out he is in better form. We’ll have to see if that’s good enough. Sentry Duty has a similar profile top Punjabi last year except he was winning those big handicaps whereas Punjabi was placing so he is a big price. Othermix was one of the best 4yos in France and 100/1 is good value.





BALLYMORE PROPERTIES NOVICES’ HURDLE



TT: Diamond Harry wanders about too much. I know they are jumping up and down about Karabak at Alan King’s yard and the trainer is brazen about him so respect that. Mikael D’Haguenet has been very busy in heavy ground which would worry me and could leave its mark somewhere. I prefer a fresher horse so side with Karabak.

DH: I am more than impressed with Mikael D’Haguenet. He has a great cruising pace, can go from the front and has a turn of foot. Karabak is the danger and Diamond Harry is too awkward and dangly and I am not sure he is sharp enough.

JM: Diamond Harry is responding well to stiffer tasks each time and got lonely last time but still got his head down and won. However it is Karabak for me as he is the finished article for a race such as this.

DM: Willie Mullins will be worried about the ground for Mikael D’Haguenet and will make a late call on this. I hope he doesn’t run as he is Gold Cup horse for the future but the owners want to run. Mad Max has a leg in every county and Diamond Harry will need a compass to come up the hill so Karabak could be the one if Mikael doesn’t run. China Rock is each-way value at 50/1.

NO’B: There is very little between Mikael D’Haguenet and Hurricane Fly in Ireland . If Mikael runs he must go close and think Diamond Harry may have had one race too many. According To Dick is overpriced at 33/1.

PC: Karabak impressed me and has improved since Mad Max beat him. I like him a lot. Mikael D’Haguenet is a superstar of the future but Karabak is the one ready at this stage of his career and has won at Cheltenham as well.






RSA CHASE



TT: Gone To Lunch is a great each-way bet. Cooldine had a hard race at Leopardstown when they finished drunk and have no confidence to back him at his price.

DH: What A Friend and Carruthers have impressed but Cooldine has impressed me more and looks made for the job. It was a marvellous run at Leopardstown and stepping up to 3m will be right up his street. Siegemaster will run well.

JM: Carruthers is admirable but he likes to dominate and will find that tough here as plenty will want to take him on. Cooldine is probably the pick in an open race.

DM: Ruby has turned down What A Friend and that is good enough for me to oppose him plus his wins have been in very small fields. Carruthers likes to dominate small fields also but you know what you will get from Gone To Lunch and he will give you a good run for your money. Cooldine is a masochist of a horse. Casey Jones at 16/1 is the each-way bet as Carberry will ride like the head waiter and pick up the debris.

NO’B: Gone To Lunch was a good hurdler that has taken to fences well. Cooldine should improve for the step up in trip as he did so from 2m to 2m5f and I think it is a match between the two.






QUEEN MOTHER CHAMPION CHASE



It was already gone 10.30 so the chairman kept it quick and just asked a panellist to offer a view only if they felt Master Minded could be beaten or there was an alternative bet in the race.



DM: Well Chief each-way

NO’B: Petit Robin without the favourite.






WEATHERBYS CHAMPION BUMPER



TT: Quinola Des Obeaux is the one I like. He won as a 4yo and then a 5yo and has a lovely style of racing. You can’t leave out Rite Of Passage.

DH: Of the Mullins horse,s to carry Patrick on heavy ground and then sprint, they would all have to be good horses. If Dermot Weld fancies Rite Of Passage, Willie would have to be a little bit worried. Quinola Des Obeaux is my pick of the Mullins horses.

JM: We have little. Bellvano probably won’t run as is being laid out for Punchestown. The only Brit to have caught my eye was Lidar. What I am hearing from the bookmakers’ reps over here is they are taking good money for Rite Of Passage.

DM: It is 4/7 Mullins wins the race but I can leave that. I don’t know why Sicilian Secret is 4/1 and Quinola Des Obeaux is 8/1 especially as I imagine Ruby will be on the latter. Don’t forget Dunguib. Fenton seldom speaks highly of his horses in public. Weld has three nice bumper horses so knows where Rite Of Passage stands.

NO’B: The Weld horses have fared well against the Mullins horses in bumpers this season and Weld made Rite Of Passage his banker at another preview I was on the panel for. Mullins said on a phone link yesterday that the four he liked most were Sicilian Secret, Quinola Des Obeaux, Cadspeed and Quel Esprit.

PC: Red Harbour looks the best of the Brits but Cranky Corner could be a bit of value.






WORLD HURDLE



TT: I can’t see past Kasbah Bliss

DH: Kasbah Bliss is like Baracouda in the way he travels and can’t see anything to beat him. Fair Along is the each-way horse.

JM: The stable are making confident noises about Kasbah Bliss. Punchestowns was a bit off his game in the Cleeve but I have no doubts he will turn the tables on Big Buck’s on 8lbs better terms. I saw him work last week and he looked great.

DM: Kasbah Bliss is nailed on. I was on a panel with Denis O’Regan and he said last year’s race finished Inglis Drever. This horse is the business. The day to get Big Buck’s was when getting 8lbs in the Cleeve. Whatuthink e/w at a massive to price to small stakes isn’t the worst punt.

NO’B: Kasbah Bliss is capable of running in Group 1 races on the Flat but is only 1lb ahead of Punchestown though. Powerstation never runs a bad race at the track so has each-way claims.

PC: Kasbah Bliss is the biggest cert of the meeting. The jockey is an animal. He is 42 years old and the equivalent of McCoy in France where I have ridden a lot and he is an absolute inspiration. He would be a pro boxer if not a jockey.






TRIUMPH HURDLE



TT: Ebadiyan was getting back at Jumbo Rio and the hill will suit so he can make the frame. If Zaynar wears cheekpieces that would make him a different proposition and the one to beat.

DH: The English are one step ahead of us and think Zaynar will win.

JM: Henderson announced Zaynar would wear cheekpieces which should have a beneficial effect. There is little between him and Walkon whilst Master Of Arts was highly rated on the Flat and there are good vibes from the Pipe yard about him.

DM: Ebadiyan has the ability to run into a place. Starluck is the value but there is no hill at Kempton but the way he travels really catches the eye.

NO’B: Jumbo Rio has beaten Ebadiyan twice this season so am surprised he is the bigger price. Zaynar’s form at Newbury and Ascot is very strong.

PC: I liked Master Of Arts on his debut but he was a bit green. Starluck has lots of class.






GOLD CUP



TT: I think Kauto Star will win. He oozes class and is a cut above these. Neptune Collonges had a hard last time and doesn’t have the gears of Kauto. Denman looks like he is hurting bad inside and I would not be surprised if he does not run. Mouse Morris told me if he could persuade the owner to miss the Gold Cup for the Grand National with War Of Attrition then he would so I would be wary of him. The owner won the day and he goes to Cheltenham.

DH: Notre Pere was too close to Neptune Collonges last time for my liking for him to be a Gold Cup winner. Exotic Dancer has had the right preparation and so has Kauto Star. If anything beats Kauto it will be Exotic Dancer as he will sit on his tail.

JM: Denman’s comeback was desperately disappointing but Nicholls has been more bullish of late. He destroyed them in last year’s Gold Cup but probably destroyed himself in the process. Neptune Collonges is in good form and steady, Exotic Dancer is also steady and Madison Du Berlais remains on an upward curve. Kauto Star is a flawed genius and likely to throw in a bad jump at any point. Neptune Collonges for me.

DM: War Of Attrition has been trained for this day so ignore his last run and he is a player on good ground. All the gaskets appeared to have blown on Denman but Kauto Star must be as hard as nails to keep coming back for more after hard races. Neptune Collonges isn’t close to him, Madison Du Berlais has a rubbish record at Cheltenham, Air Force One will be better at Punchestown and Barbers Shop should be running in the Ryanair. Kauto Star to win.

NO’B: Madison Du Berlais is a hard horse to handicap and I think the Pipes were surprised by him last time. He needs to improve but that is not impossible. It is ironic that if Madison was not in that race then Denman would have won by a mile and would be odds on for this. Kauto Star’s courage kept him in last season’s race and he has had a better preparation this time. Neptune Collonges is very solid but Kauto is hard to get away from.

PC: Leopardstown was a bit close to Cheltenham this week having been put a back a week due to the weather which is against Neptune Collonges. Kauto Star and Exotic Dancer look better prepared as have had nice breaks.






BANKERS



TT: Cousin Vinny

DH: I’msingingtheblues (ew)

JM: Punchestowns

DM: Tatenen

NO’B: Zaynar

PC: Sublimity

TO’H: Quevega
 
Tom Scu off the Christmas card list you think? ;)

Thanks for those Qzy - Tony Mullins must have been great entertainment (as always) :)
 
qzy said:
I was at the Roscommon Preview Night last night, my notes.......

RW: Ruby Walsh; TW: Ted Walsh; NC: Nina Carberry; TM: Tony Mullins; KW: Ken Whelan

Supreme Novice:
TM: Cousin Vinny is the new Istabraq, the bet of the meeting
TW: Cousin Vinny nailed on unless something unforseen happens
NC: Agrees with Vinny, the only worry is the big field
KW: Shoreacres is worth an interest EW
RW: Vinny not confirmed but most likely to go to the Supreme, very hard to beat. Pipes wont get up the hill, Michael Flips EW worth a shot, worked very well after the RP Chase meeting. Kempes would need to improve an awful lot

The Arkle:
RW: Disappointed in Tatenen last time, might have been the journey over that unsettled him. Not a Calgary Bay fan, Forpadytheplasterer will finish second to anything. Gold and Silver would be an EW bet.
TM: Tatenen an ungenuine favourite, not good enough. Possibly the worst Arkle of all time
TW: Don't give back the Cousin Vinny money here, a bookies race this year. "You don't have to bet in every race"

Champion Hurdle:
RW: I've been 2nd in a couple and I'd love to win it. Celestial Halo is in great form but if Binocular gets up the hill he wins it. There is nothing in the race good enough to get it off the bridle. Crack Away Jack should be fav for the Arkle right now, Sublimity worked poorly last week, Harchibald is the best of Meades, Jered wouldn't win it downhill never mind uphill. Osana will go from the front to suit the owner which will play right into Binoculars hands.
KW: Fancied Celestial Halo or Sublimity off a fast pace
TM: Fav has done nothing wrong, a class horse, there is nothing to beat him. Brave Ica is as old as Dev, Jered not good enough, Muirhear 1/2 furlong off this level. LAst years CH was one of the worst ever. Won in the Dark is the EW bet in the race.
TW: Would have liked to seen more of Won In The Dark, and Brave Inca is worth a shot EW at about 33/1. Fav should win but very skimpy.

Cross Country:
NC: Garde Champetre is carrying a lot of weight this year for a small horse. Should carry it if the ground is ok, had no problem lumping 12st4 around Punchestown. L'Ami getting weight makes him the one to beat. A New Story is well enough in and Dix Ville also getting a nice bit of weight.
KW: Wonderkids chances dependent on the ground, must be good. Drombeg is the best handicapped horse in the race but LAmi is the class act.
TW: LAmi a non trier the last day, but its a classy race this year. Dix Ville ran well in Galway, but its probably be between the top two. Wonderkid has no chance, needs a miracle and its Cheltenham not Rome!


Ballymore:
RW: No idea who runs yet. Willies horse needs soft ground but hopes he gets there. Karabak is small but tough, a shell of a horse. Mikael DHaguenet one of his better rides of the week if he runs.
NC: Mikael DHaguenet has a turn of foot and will stay, hard to beat.
TW: Willis has three marvelous horses this year and Mikael DHaguenet has been impressive. According to Dick has an EW chance.
KW: Hard to oppose Willie and Ruby here. Doesn't fancy Diamond Harry at all
TM: If Diamond Harry did win this then Bensalem is the bet of the meeting (another one)! Willie doesn't want to run Mikael DHaguenet but connections are keen

Champion Chase:
RW: 1/3 doesn't mean Master Minded is gone by! Anything can happen but he is head and shoulders above anything else in the field. Twist Magic a great bet without the fav as the rest aren't good enough.
Tidal Bay was worse than bad at Doncaster the other day
TW: You would be hard up for a bet to back a 1/3 shot but you would be very hard up to back something to beat Master Minded here.
KW: Tony Mullins will bear his arse off Athlone bridge if Master Minded is beaten
TM: Master Minded is the best horse he has ever seen in his life, sit back and enjoy. Its embarassing to have Big Zeb in the betting, there is about 18st between the two horses.


Sun Alliance:
TW: Ground important here, if its good Cooldine has a big shout but if soft Carruthers is the one.
NC: Casey Jones on a bit of nice ground has a chance, a nice EW bet.
RW: Always liked Cooldine, the 2nd highest rated novice last year. Nicholls is sweet on What a Friend
KW: Likes Gone To Lunch, would be 7/2 with a top trainer. Could be the one to upset Rubys horse.
TM: Goes for What A Friend without much confidence. Willie, though, has trained the only 2 Irish trained winners since 95

Ryanair:
RW: Voy Por Ustedes is a cert, the only grade 1 horse in the race. ScotsIrish will run well if the ground is good.
KW: Tidal Bay could run well but the fav deserves to be so. Monets Garden worth an interest EW
NC: Cant go past Voy Por, a class horse.
TM: Voy Por a genuine Grade 1 horse and has proven that many times. Doen't think Tidal Bay will run. Massinis Maguire might be worth an interest EW
TW: Not very original but Voy Por. Scots Irish if it was quickish ground - trip would suit nicely.

Bumper:

TW: Willie has 1/3 of the runners, and Patrick will be on the best of them.
NC: No ride yet. Quinola Des Obeaux a lovely horse but Cheltenham may not suit him.Cadspeed has been beaten by an ordinary horse before and would to improve even more. Rite Of Passage won over 2m3 in a very truly run race. Dunguib impressed me at Navan but takes a fierce hold and will need to settle better. Swinbaks horse is a nice EW bet here.
RW: Don't know yet what he'll be on, Patrick rides Sicilian Secret. Gagewell Flyer and Cranky Corner have been within a nose of each other since they have been at Willies. Lois A Choill has been working well at home. Would worry about Dunguib getting worked up, lots of bumpers lost before the start because of this. Sicilian Secret is the best of Willies. Meath All Star is a hell of a horse and has been slightly forgotten about.
TM: Dermot Weld told his mother he would beat all of Willies horses this year with Rite Of Passage - has a poor record at Cheltenham though (Ruby piped up it was no worse that Tony's!)
KW: Swinbanks has been laid out nicely for this. Rite of Passage was very impressive at a schooling bumper at Thurles, very relaxed, very professional.

Triumph:
NC: Ebadiyan will appreciate the hill and will finish ahead of Jumbo Rio. Master Of Arts is the reason why Torphichen is in the Supreme, very well fancied.
RW: All of these have one thing in common - they are all very slow, apart from Starluck. No stars here this year, Starluck wins if he gets the trip.
KW: Ebadiyan the toughest 4yo in Ireland, better on good ground. Good EW value. Starluck looks the class horse.
TM: Rang Barry Geraghty before the preview and Zaynar is his best ride of the week, really fancies him.
TW: Agrees with Eddie O'Grady that Jumbo Rio will finish in front of Ebadiyan again and he is the best of the Irish. Also likes Lethal Weapon. Would love to see Starluck win this. Zaynar is poor value, he is a poor jumper and worked terribly recently

Stayers:
TW: Has to be impressed with Kasbah Bliss, has too much gears for the others. Fair Along is a bit of EW value. Big Bucks will finish ahead of Punchestowns again.
NC: Kasbah Bliss the one to beat, a good bit of toe and stays well
RW: No front runner and you would need a strong gallop to beat Kasbah Bliss. Powerstation may as well stay in the parade ring. The others need to turn it into a slog to beat Kasbah Bliss.
KW: Big Bucks has a great chance, but has a fancy for Whatuthink at a huge price. A tough horse and might be the one to go on and can stay there for a place.
TM: Kasbah Bliss had his chance last year, beaten by an "auld lad". Barry Geraghty thinks Punchestowns will win this. Hendersons worked on the AW surface last week and "won't be doing it again"

Gold Cup:
RW: I think I'm on the right one with Kauto. Neptuner was very good in the Hennesy but he should hold him. Denman was poor last Friday but has gone a whole lot better since. Doesn't think he can come to himself quickly enough though. Would love to win to stick it up Tom Scudamore. Barbers Shop isn't "within an asses roar" of this level, War Of Attrition is "gone"
NC: Thought Denman didn't look right last time, not properly muscled in behind and the colour looked wrong.
TM: Master Minded may have broken the trends last year Kauto is not in the same "Super League" as him and won't beat the trends. Denman probably won't run and if he does he will be pulled up (Ruby was adamant he is running). Madison De Berlais is useless around Cheltenham, Barbers Shop is just not good enough. Neptune Collonges for him.
KW: Big fan of Kautobut he didn't travel at all well last year. Can't see the others getting near him. Sam Thomas could be reaching for the Gaviscom at the top of the hill. War Of Attrition is a safe lepper and is good EW value if the ground is right.
TW: All depends which Kauto turns up, and you will probably know in the parade ring. Exotic Dancer is a cert to be placed.

Bismarks:
TM: Denman
TW: None
KW: Willies bumper horses
RW: Diamond Harry
NC: Willies bumper horses

Charity Bets:
TM: Voy Por Ustedes
KW: Whatuthink EW
TW: Mikael DHaguenet alt Cousin Vinny
NC: Cousin Vinny
RW: Ireland 4 or 5 winners
Click to expand...

An unusual bismark from Nina:confused:
 
MM - trend of 5 year old winning QM
KS - trend of past winner reclaiming Gold Cup after losing it
 
Unless I've read it wrong, he seemed to be saying that Master Minded is in a different league to Kauto Star.

Not for my money he isn't.
 
He was basically saying that Master Minded is a horse in a million while Kauto is a horse in a hundred thousand. It's not an insult, whether you agree with it or not.
 
Cheltenham racecourse

Friday March 6th

Panel:

Jim McGrath (JM)

Alan King (AK)

Dave Nevison (DN)

Paddy Brennan (PB)

Matt Williams (MW) – Racing Post Trading Post

David Hood (DH) – William Hill

KM (KM) – William Hill







The evening started with Managing Director Edward Gillespie giving a quick run down on the current ground conditions...

New and Old Courses currently Good to soft, good in places

Cross Country currently good to soft, soft in places

Outlook: showery spells all week with plenty of rain forecast on Tuesday morning, conditions should get softer before the first race.



The structure of the evening was to discuss the hurdle races first followed by the chases.







Champion Hurdle



JM: Starting with the Champion Hurdle, is 11/8 value David Hood?

DH: We’ll go 6/4 tonight for anyone who wants him.

AK: I’m really happy with Katchit and he’s retuned to us after his holiday much more like his old self. I shouldn’t have run him at Wincanton under a big weight but that’s done now. He won’t run in blinkers and he’ll certainly be competitive but I think it’s Binocular’s to lose.

MW: I wouldn’t back Binocular at 2/1! Too many strong stayers in the race and its Celestial Halo for me.

PB: Everyone is waiting to see a super star performance from Binocular but the forecast rain is a real worry and I know AP (McCoy) is worried about that. If I could ride one in the race it would be Brave Inca.

DN: It’s a good e/w race and although Binocular was visually impressive at Ascot he’s not one for me. I’ll take Ashkazar, Whiteoak and Osana against the field.







World Hurdle



JM: The three market principles are all good horse but all different in their own ways...

AK: All three are high class but Kasbah Bliss is all class. My slight worry is the jockey.

MW: Kasbah should be 4/6, he’s in a different league. Looking back 12 months he made Inglis Drever work so hard.

PB: I agree with Matt.

DN: I agree again! Mighty Man has the class if back to his best.

AK: He (Mighty Man) wouldn’t win if he started now!

DH: He’ll be shorter than 11/10 on the day.







Triumph



JM: Wide open looking race looking at the betting

DN: I’ve got 9/2 on Zaynar and seeing as he’s currently 5/1 that was clever of me! I’m still hopeful though, but only just.

PB: He’s the one to beat.

MW: Zayanr is a great price as he’s got the best form on offer.

AK: Very strong race. I’m thrilled with Walkon who has improved with every start. I’m really delighted and he has so much scope that he’ll be a really good horse next year as well. The vibes haven’t been great for Zaynar and I’m more scared of both Master Of Arts and Starluck. I’m glad Torphichen goes for the Supreme Novices’ because he scares the hell out of me.







Supreme Novices’



JM: Cousin Vinny anyone?

AK: A high class horse but if I’m honest I haven’t watched much Irish racing! I’m a huge fan of Torphichen. Medermit needs the rain to stay away but if it does he’d have an e/w squeak.

MW: Yes for Cousin! Don’t worry about the jockey. Torphichen hasn’t got the class of Cousin Vinny and the danger is Michael Flips.

PB: I’ve been very impressed with Cousin Vinny and he is clearly the one to beat.

DN: They (the connections) really like Cousin Vinny but I’m just not sure about his jumping. I’m with Matt in liking Michael Flips.

DH: Kempes has been really well backed, along with Go Native.

MW: Copper Bleu could be the e/w horse.







Ballymore Properties



AK: Karabak, I’m really excited about him. Very straightforward horse and he’s in cracking form.

MW: I’m against Diamond Harry, he’s got a bad attitude, jumps too slow and always hangs.

AK: Bensalem is a better long term horse than Karabak and if I didn’t have Karabak I’d take on Diamond Harry again with Bensalem.

PB: I actually think Diamond Harry is one of the most exciting horses to be running at the Festival this year.

DN: The cracks are starting to show in Diamond Harry. I fancy Karabak but Mikael DHaguenet is a serious horse and I just favour.







Albert Bartlett



DN: If Pride of Dulcote stands up he could be the one.

PB: I really like Bensalem.

MW: On soft ground Tarablaze wouldn’t be out of the first three.

AK: Pride Of Dulcote is very highly rated officially and I personally like Cape Tribulation. Bensalem would probably need a spot of rain.







Handicap Hurdles



JM: Lets have one horse from each of you...

DN: Nictory Vote (Fred Winter)

PB: Freeze The Flame (Pertemps)

MW: Mr Thriller (Fred Winter)

AK: Pennek (Pertemps)

DN: Penn Da Benn (Martin Pipe)

JM: West With The Wind (Fred Winter)









JM: On to the chases, starting with the Arkle...

PB: Calgary Bay was disappointing at Ascot but very impressive at Cheltenham but I really like my own horse here, Tartak.

AK: No stand out 2m chaser this year but I can’t have Calgary Bay. I like Kalahari King on good ground although Forpadydeplasterer could be the one.

MW: 5/1 ON Calgary Bay is a decent price.

DN: I couldn’t HAVE Calgary Bay, I’m struggling to find a bet but maybe Kalahari King or Tartak.







RSA



JM: What A Friend?

AK: I can’t stand the horse, couldn’t have him at all, I don’t like him!

JM: Cooldine the one with the most ability?

MW: Yes and no but I’m worried about both his jumping and his stamina. Not sure about Carruthers and I like What A Friend.

PB: I agree with Alan on What A Friend, a big field for him would really worry me. I like Carruthers and I think he’ll win. I watched Cooldine school the other day and he was very poor.

DN: Ruby (Walsh) has chosen Cooldine so What A Friend really should drift. Gone To Lunch keeps digging and digging and he’d do for me.

AK: I like Gone To Lunch too, if he was trained by Paul Nicholls he’d be favourite.







Champion Chase



JM: 1/3 Dave?

DN: Yeah sure, why not? But Well Chief for me and I’m going to back him. He could have been very, very high class. I’m certain Master Minded will win but Well Chief could be a contender and I’ll take a chance on him.

MW: Not really my cup of tea backing 1/3 shots but he looks unbeatable. Places will be filled by big outsiders.

PB: Master Minded is an absolute certainty. Well Chief is a massive price in the ‘without Master Minded’ market.







Ryanair



JM: Tell us about Voy Por Ustedes Alan?

AK: He speaks for himself really. This is the logical race for him and I’m thrilled with him.

MW: I think he’ll go off at bigger than evens.

KM: He won’t! He’s a good thing.

MW: Oh yeah, nothing will beat him.

PB: Imperial Commander is the best horse I’ve ridden and I believe we’ll win.

DN: Voy Por is more than fair at evens and he should really be odds-on.







Gold Cup



JM: Denman...

AK: I don’t know what to think about him! Kempton was very bad but the vibes are still bad. Katchit is similar in many ways in terms of last year’s Cheltenham has bottomed the pair of them.

MW: The vibes tell me he won’t come back and I’m tempted to ignore him completely.

AK: He was so ill that the treatment knocked him sideways.

PB: Kmepton was everything that Paul Nicholls didn;t want to happen.

DN: He looked awful in the paddock that day and there hasn’t been any positive news since. The fact he’s 7/1 tells its own story.

DH: Denman is utterly friendless in the market but Madison Du Berlais is the horse punters want.

JM: I’ve backed Neptune Collonges and Exotic Dancer.

DN: I can’t really work out Kauto Star. Maybe there’ll be a shock result but I’m not sure what!

PB: Kauto is the one to beat but he’s not a strong choice. Miko De Beauchene e/w for me at a massive price.

MW: 2/1 is massive on Kauto! He’s in a different league to all his rivals. I can’t believe him and Neptune are so close in the betting.

AK: Fascinating race and I’m a huge Kauto fan and with him being fresh that is a real plus. Denman: No. Neptune: Place maybe. Exotic Dancer: maybe.







Handicap Chase

JM: One from you all please...

DN: The Package (whatever race he runs in!)

PB: Buck The Legend (Festival Plate)

MW: Clew Bay Cove (Grand Annual)

AK: Oh Crick (Grand Annual)

DH: Chapoturgeon (Jewson)







Bumper



DN: Willie Mullins thinks he’ll win it but he’s not sure with what one!

MW: I wouldn’t trust that recent Leopardstown gallop (in which Sicilian Secret won), it looked too good to be true. I’d go for Dunguib.

JM: I agree with Matt, sets a good standard on form.

PB: I haven’t a clue!

AK: I agree with Paddy! Who cares?!







Best Bet Of The Week



KM: Vor Por Ustedes (Ryanair)

DH: Nictory Vote (Fred Winter)

DN: Quevega (Mares’ Race)

MW: Liverpool to beat Real Madrid! Cousin Vinny (Supreme Novices’)

PB: Best ride: Imperial Commander (Ryanair) One I’d like to ride: Kasbah Bliss (World Hurdle)

AK: Medermit (Supreme Novices’)

JM: Dunguib (Bumper)
 
I know she didn't say a lot [according to this transcript] but I'm sure Kate Miller deserves to have her name mentioned rather than be labelled just as "KM (KM) – William Hill" !
 
She is undoubtedly the sexiest PR mouthpiece on the go anyway (IMO).

I hope she reads this.

Cheers for posting BTW, qzy.
 
I can always point her in the right direction if you like Trackside!! ;)

BTW, wasn't having a pop at qzy, I'm guessing he didn't write the transcript anyway.
 
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