Cheltenham Race Reviews

Desert Orchid

Desert Orchid

Senior Jockey
Joined
Aug 2, 2005
Messages
25,687
Just as the dust was settling post-festival I thought I'd stir it up a bit.

I've re-viewed (as opposed to reviewed) the first two races to see what I can take out of them for the future and would welcome others' take on them too. I plan to try and rate the races later in the week since I'll be limiting other activities in the light of the health situation.

Supreme - the first thing to strike me was that Aba dwelt at the re-start and I wondered if maybe that cost him the race. Then I saw Shishkin's mistake which cost him at least two lengths and momentum. When a horse loses ground like that I always allow it double because it then has to make that ground back up and also costs it energy. Then Shishkin was hampered by the carnage two out and did remarkably well to make up the lost ground and momentum at that stage of the race. I had watched the interview with NdB in which he talks about its Newbury race and how when he gave the horse a tap with his whip on his right he found another gear and then when he switched the whip to the left and gave it another one it found a whole new gear, so as Shishkin drew alongside Aba I was urging NdB to change the whip to his left hand, which he never did and I thought he'd got away with a panicky ride. The reverse angle, though, suggests that he never really had to get serious with the horse and I'll be rating Shishkin value for a significant amount more than the narrow margin.

Arkle - I backed BUAS but, as I often say, I have to think about backing anything ridden by RJ. I do think for every good ride he makes (eg Beer Goggles last season) he makes ten arses. BUAS might just not be a natural jumper but RJ didn't seem to help him any. I thought there was more than a hint of criticism in Chapman's post-race remark too. I hardly saw BUAS meet a fence spot on and God only knows what RJ was thinking when he sent him into that ditch. Pendil wouldn't have got over that from so far away. Approaching the downhill fence, the riderless BUAS was tailed off and still making a hash of his fences yet flew up the hill to pass the post first and going away. Okay, he wasn't carrying a jockey but other fallers during the week remained tailed off or ran off the track. BUAS clearly has an engine and a will to be first. I would be willing to give him another chance under a different jockey over fences but he might be a serious hurdler in the making. If he were mine I'd be toying with the idea of getting him into the Coral Cup next year off a mark somewhere between 145 and 150.

More to follow as and when.

Feel free to join in.
 
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Why did Shishkin go off 10.48?
If the Champion Hurdle was run before the Supreme what price would Abacadabras have gone off?
Would Davy do anything different?
 
Russell ended up in front some way out through no fault of his own. Clearly he would have loved to hang on to him for longer. That said Shish had multiple problems through the race.
The drift on Shish didn't dim the confidence and it was a thrilling finish.
Both win next year!

Expected big run from Guinness, shame we got robbed of that. He could easily chase home Shish in the Arkle.
 
I think the Supreme was strong but the carnage Asterion Fromage caused radically changed the race. Elixir D'ainay and Captain Guiness were running fine races before they came down and the former over hurdles and trips around the minimum and the latter over fences are interesting for the future.
I don't get involved with sub 10/1 shots at this stage for the following year's Festival so the De-Bromhead horse is way more interesting to me for the 2021 Arkle and I've backed him at 25/1. If this year's meeting is anything to go by he'll get there, go off at 9/2 and finish second.
 
Chosen Mate +11
The Storyteller +11
Sire Du Berlais +9
Aramax +7
Column Of Fire +7
Easywork +7
Envoi Alken +6
Abacadabras +9
Galvin +7
Fury Road +6
Ravinhill +11
Samcro +5
Delta Work -1
Tiger Roll -3
 
I think the supreme will prove to be a very strong race

Abac did miss the start but when you look at how he travelled coming and over the last, I can't have that as a reason for his loss

Shinskin had an awful passage but yet got his head up --really don't know why the market was so bad

Capt Guiness was very unexposed going in and was running a huge race, he'll be an interesting chaser

I actually think it's ridiculous for people to say that a horse was travelling too well (what else is a jockey meant to do) but based on all we now of Abac (ran out in a bumper) he still likely has a bit of growing up to do and would have been better chasing a target rather than leading. I would think the temptation is there to keep him hurdling
 
Slim said:
Chosen Mate +11
The Storyteller +11
Sire Du Berlais +9
Aramax +7
Column Of Fire +7
Easywork +7
Envoi Alken +6
Abacadabras +9
Galvin +7
Fury Road +6
Ravinhill +11
Samcro +5
Delta Work -1
Tiger Roll -3
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Gordon is not one for the trends boys

That is some week's bombing and he'll do it next year too
 
Desert Orchid said:
As I keep saying, when it comes to the handicaps the one constant trend is that the winner is well ahead of its mark. Nothing else matters.
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I'm not disputing that but some were suggesting Champ couldn't win because he had fallen on his last start. Ruling a horse out because of stats and trends is very poor judgement.
 
Anyway, on to the second day.

Ballymore - EA won as expected but I thought (might have mentioned it on the day) that Easywork was free early and green late. I now see that the jockey reported that it ran too freely. The two Bigs were next home and are probably decent tools so the first two are probably some way above average.

RSA - I watched it again this morning. I think Champ is far superior to the other two, who I think are pretty high class. Not a lot went right for Champ through the race, imo. He appeared to fiddle quite a number of fences while Allaho in particular looked very fluent. I backed Allaho ante-post and thought he was a good thing, to be honest, but the ew steal on Champ was sound insurance. I did think wherever MI finished Allaho would be in front but suspected Champ could surprise on a going day. I think the sectionals show (it's a few days since I read them) that the front two died up the hill and Champ merely stayed on. It reminded me of Synchronized's Gold Cup. The problem with Champ is whether he will properly take to jumping. I think the other two will be serious Gold Cup contenders.

Coral Cup - I thought about going back through the threads to find what I wrote about Dame De Compagnie in the Greatwood but gave up quickly. Henderson and Geraghty should have been stood up against a wall and shot by the stewards for that. I think Maruco agreed with me at the time. After that, there was no way I was going to miss her in any major target. Here she thwarted two serious plots in Black Tears and Thosedaysaregone. This is seriously hot form. The next ten home were understandably fanciable and the only other British one among the first five of them was Honest Vic for Henry Daly. He might be worth looking out for should racing resume properly.

Champion Chase - pile of shite.

X-Country - pile of shite II

Boodles - not a fan of the race but the form is usually quite meaningful. This year is probably no exception.

Bumper - I really fancied The Glancing Queen but was never happy watching it through the race. Looked like it was being prepped for another day, presumably Aintree so King will be sick as the proverbial pig with coronavirus that it's off. Carpe diem et cetera, Alane.
 
Slim said:
I'm not disputing that but some were suggesting Champ couldn't win because he had fallen on his last start. Ruling a horse out because of stats and trends is very poor judgement.
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I'd read that beforehand pretty disbelievingly. Fair play to the poster (pawras) though; (s)he didn't let it put him/her off completely.
 
Slim said:
Trends boys needs to stick it in the bin and start again.
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The trends I use I work out for myself and aren't taken from the herd mentality. They worked extremely well this year because they have a strong bias toward the previous year and the current season, and I only factor in certain amount of limited criteria over a 3 year period. There is quite a bit of criteria that others use that I ignore completely and will continue to do so. Because it's utter rubbish, and either taken out of context, or pure coincidence.

Ultimately trends and statistics should be leading you to a horse or a group of horses that are best suited by the specific race, and then from a shortlist it's a decision over what is the best handicapped. Also in the handicaps with 6 or 7 places on offer you can easily back 3-5 horses and make a significant profit, so it makes life pretty uncomplicated even on a busy week like Cheltenham.

You posted a perfect set of trends with the Elliott handicap marks Slim, and that's why I start again every year with trends rather than adapt from the previous year as others do. Essentially there are trends and trends. Follow someone else's or use your own! By adopting my own approach to trends and statistics I have had one losing Festival since 1999. I reckon I'll keep on doing it my own way.

Incidentally my trends and statistics meant I backed 11 of the 14 Elliott horses on that list either win or each way. Those that I didn't were Ravenhill who I didn't like at the price, Tiger Roll where there was no value so I backed Easysland against him, and Aramax who was on my list and I missed in error when I'd waited for BPG and thought I'd backed him.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Anyway, on to the second day.

Ballymore - EA won as expected but I thought (might have mentioned it on the day) that Easywork was free early and green late. I now see that the jockey reported that it ran too freely. The two Bigs were next home and are probably decent tools so the first two are probably some way above average.

RSA - I watched it again this morning. I think Champ is far superior to the other two, who I think are pretty high class. Not a lot went right for Champ through the race, imo. He appeared to fiddle quite a number of fences while Allaho in particular looked very fluent. I backed Allaho ante-post and thought he was a good thing, to be honest, but the ew steal on Champ was sound insurance. I did think wherever MI finished Allaho would be in front but suspected Champ could surprise on a going day. I think the sectionals show (it's a few days since I read them) that the front two died up the hill and Champ merely stayed on. It reminded me of Synchronized's Gold Cup. The problem with Champ is whether he will properly take to jumping. I think the other two will be serious Gold Cup contenders.

Coral Cup - I thought about going back through the threads to find what I wrote about Dame De Compagnie in the Greatwood but gave up quickly. Henderson and Geraghty should have been stood up against a wall and shot by the stewards for that. I think Maruco agreed with me at the time. After that, there was no way I was going to miss her in any major target. Here she thwarted two serious plots in Black Tears and Thosedaysaregone. This is seriously hot form. The next ten home were understandably fanciable and the only other British one among the first five of them was Honest Vic for Henry Daly. He might be worth looking out for should racing resume properly.

Champion Chase - pile of shite.

X-Country - pile of shite II

Boodles - not a fan of the race but the form is usually quite meaningful. This year is probably no exception.

Bumper - I really fancied The Glancing Queen but was never happy watching it through the race. Looked like it was being prepped for another day, presumably Aintree so King will be sick as the proverbial pig with coronavirus that it's off. Carpe diem et cetera, Alane.
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Some thoughts:

Envoi Allen got Davy Russell out of an awful lot of trouble from the bottom of the hill. He had the horse badly positioned put my God is the horse some tool. He should be marked up for the performance given the ride.

Charles Byrnes really needs to start using better jockeys when he goes for a touch. He bet Thosedaysaregone very late but was let down by Kevin Brouder finding trouble and making the mistake of going for a run up the far side. I think he might have troubled the winner had they both got a run up the near rail. As for the Greatwood I don't agree that Dame De Compagnie was stopped after having a big bet on her on the day. The key to her was the step up in trip. She got outpaced in the Greatwood.
 
Thursday

Marsh - Great race, great finish, but... a 12yo 'novice' nearly winning and a dodgepot getting the better of a serial failure? and the next two rated 153 and 149 running to within an ounce of that differential? Taking those two as a line, the front three are all around the 156/157 mark, coincidentally Samcro's rating. I'm afraid that doesn't bode well for the future of this field. I imagine the beaten horses will be prepared next season with the handicaps in mind. I suspect Imperial Aura would have beaten the lot of them.

Pertemps - I honestly thought Sire De Berlais was a decoy for another JP job. For me, he really had to improve a fair bit on all known form but he did exactly that and, in the process, beat another serious plot in The Storyteller. These two were well clear of a mixture of likely plots and well-handicapped rivals and the form looks hot. I imagine we won't see too much of the principals until next year's festival. I still can't fathom the ride that Relegate got. Not the only bad ride we saw from Townend during the week, I should add. Dream Berry was one of my minor bets in the race and the one I thought SDB might be decoying for but I see the vet reported the horse suffered an overreach. I'm going to keep this one in mind but it might be next year before we see him trying again.

Shitebagair - I have no issues with Min and A Plus Tard fighting out the finish of this race but I do have an issue with Saint Calvados being right in between them and looking a wee bit unlucky. I'd backed him in the Arkle only for him to bomb that day and he did likewise in the following year's Champion Chase. He had looked back and better than ever in handicap performances this season but he'd already gone up to 161 for them. There was nothing that entitled him to split horses rated 170 and 166 and it leads me to double the form, especially with Frodon seemingly well below his best. It was the slowest finish of the day for the chases and SC came from the back so the chances are they went too fast, especially Frodon. I'm tempted to rate the race via SC but allow the other two and Frodon mark-ups. (Should it be 'marks-up'?)

Stayers - with Paisley Park not running his race and the race itself being run far too fast and finishing very slowly, the form isn't worth taking seriously. The chances are Paisley Park will be a better price than he should be next time. I plan to recoup what was by a long way my heaviest bet of the week.

BAMS - this struck me as one of the more predictable results of the week, especially after Imperial Aura's impressive win. I probably should be less averse to shorter prices in big-field handicaps and if it wasn't Cheltenham with all its obscure Irish plots I'd probably have been happy to back Simply The Betts. Most of the form makes perfect sense and the race will continue to provide future winners.

Mares' Nov Hdle - I'm really kicking myself for not backing Concertista. And when I'm not kicking myself I'm banging my head off the door jamb. Talk about not seeing the wood for the trees. Even allowing for backing a couple of longshots in the hope of another surprise, Concertista did exactly what my gut said she should do: improve 10lbs or more on last year's form.

Kim Muir - my strategy of throwing the form book out of the window and backing the best jockeys backfired. I'm not sure Codd should be blamed for Le Breuil's poor run; the horse never seemed to be travelling. I haven't seen or heard any excuses being offered and the void National bet is probably a result for me. O'Connor, on the other hand, was either told there were doubts about Champagne Platinum getting the trip or he was showing off. His exaggerated hold-up tactics certainly didn't pay off. A race best forgotten.
 
Slim said:
Envoi Allen got Davy Russell out of an awful lot of trouble from the bottom of the hill. He had the horse badly positioned put my God is the horse some tool. He should be marked up for the performance given the ride.
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Yes, I meant to include a comment to that effect.
 
Slim said:
As for the Greatwood I don't agree that Dame De Compagnie was stopped after having a big bet on her on the day. The key to her was the step up in trip. She got outpaced in the Greatwood.
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Happy to agree to differ on this one, Slim. What I saw was DDC coast into contention at the top of the hill then Geraghty apply the handbrake going downhill before asking for a belated effort when the race was over.
 
I think DR went out with one thing in mind, jump around and avoid trouble knowing what was under him

The horses form looks bombproof at this stage

Even better for Envoi - looks like he only does enough. Who knows what's under the bonnet or what will get him off the boil
 
Desert Orchid said:
Happy to agree to differ on this one, Slim. What I saw was DDC coast into contention at the top of the hill then Geraghty apply the handbrake going downhill before asking for a belated effort when the race was over.
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I called that outpaced. Might have a look back, I've nothing else to be doing...
 
Not sure about envoi just doing enough. The holes that were picked in his form were shown up mostly by elixir dainay I thought in the supreme. The zoom to go from 4l down to 3l up in a furlong or so was extraordinary. Maybe downplayed due to his rep but the real deal.
 
Friday

Triumph - I must admit I found it hard to buy into the pre-race hype about Goshen but he was going to win impressively. Right now I wouldn't touch him with a barge pole for next year's Champion Hurdle, though, because he'll only be five. If he comes out next season and shows himself to be a 170+ 5yo I might change my mind, though. The feeling beforehand was that the juveniles weren't really up to much and that appears to have been borne out.

County - usually a very good race for me and I do think I might have backed Saint Roi in a normal year but it doesn't alter the fact that Townend had Aramon in the wrong place for most of the race. I can't imagine he was riding to instructions, unless those instructions were to gift Saint Roi the race. After all, if the winner was their Supreme horse at one point there was never going to be any way Aramon was going to give him 12lbs.

Albert B - of the principals, on RPRs only Janidil has failed to run to or better than its OR, failing by 8lbs but he was beaten too far for it to have made any difference to the placings. Monkfish has done by far the best of the prominent runners despite losing momentum with a blunder and can probably be considered better than the bare form and the one to take out of the race for next year.

Gold Cup - good enough race to watch but I wonder if there's any real class in it. Best Mate hoovered up three Gold Cups beating handicappers along the way and maybe ABP will get to do the same. I just hope Santini improves again next season. LIT has run well for a yard that had a disappointing week. Monalee got chopped up a wee bit at the top of the hill by Santini. I suspect this year's RSA principals will merit serious consideration next year, given normal progress.

Foxhunters - pile of shite III

Grand Annual - Chosen Mate might be another one that got away. I'm pretty sure he would have been on my shortlist at better odds had I been able to dig into the form. I suspected - without digging - as much but by the time I got to look at the race the price was gone. He beat two other Irish plots, which tells its own story. My rank outsider, The Bay Birch, ran much better than his finishing position considering he gave up the wide outside to no-one. I presume the jockey was riding to instructions but if the horse needs daylight like that he'll have no chance unless he gets to dictate the pace in a small field in a weaker race.

Martin Pipe - Probably fair enough form given the lines with Indefatigable and Dame De Compagnie but maybe a wee plot just missed out with The Bosses Oscar for whom nothing went right and he wasn't beaten at all far. Mill Green also deserves mention - as does his jockey's perseverance - as he was detached and scrubbed along from the off before flying up the hill but I suspect there may have been a bit of a pace collapse as Indefatigable had looked well held turning for home.
 
This is a really good thread DO and I will come back to it tonight with my thoughts on the other days. We have nothing else to do now so we may as well beat the meeting to death!
 
You are wrong about Goshen. Also you might need to check the 5yos in the champion hurdle stat that was so loved a decade ago. The only thing that stops him from winning it is the more valuable flat races available to him. He'll be even better when there is something to go with him. Loved how he looked at the crowd all the way up the last furlong.
 
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