Cheltenham Race Reviews

[G-G]

Anyway, on to the second day.

Ballymore - EA won as expected but I thought (might have mentioned it on the day) that Easywork was free early and green late. I now see that the jockey reported that it ran too freely. The two Bigs were next home and are probably decent tools so the first two are probably some way above average.

RSA - I watched it again this morning. I think Champ is far superior to the other two, who I think are pretty high class. Not a lot went right for Champ through the race, imo. He appeared to fiddle quite a number of fences while Allaho in particular looked very fluent. I backed Allaho ante-post and thought he was a good thing, to be honest, but the ew steal on Champ was sound insurance. I did think wherever MI finished Allaho would be in front but suspected Champ could surprise on a going day. I think the sectionals show (it's a few days since I read them) that the front two died up the hill and Champ merely stayed on. It reminded me of Synchronized's Gold Cup. The problem with Champ is whether he will properly take to jumping. I think the other two will be serious Gold Cup contenders.

.

Champ is a TERRIBLE jumper. I fear for him. I can't remember who said it, but for once out of the ITV coverage someone was spot on, even if said in jest that Champ, realised there were no more jumps after the last fence and that's why he finished so well, aside from also going past tired horses. On reflection may not have been ITV as I think I had to watch it back through my Skybet account.

 

[Desert Orchid]

County - usually a very good race for me and I do think I might have backed Saint Roi in a normal year but it doesn't alter the fact that Townend had Aramon in the wrong place for most of the race. I can't imagine he was riding to instructions, unless those instructions were to gift Saint Roi the race. After all, if the winner was their Supreme horse at one point there was never going to be any way Aramon was going to give him 12lbs.

I've watched the race through again and the final half-mile or so several times. The more I watch it the worse the Aramon ride gets. I'm still not suggesting he would have beaten the winner but it could have been a lot closer. SR was further back early on than I'd realised but while Geraghty got him into midfield by the second flight, Aramon was still in the last trio and wide. Aramon was about five lengths behind SR (midfield) at the top of the hill and it looked like Aramon made up most of that ground on the downhill run. Somehow, SR was five lengths in front again turning for home with Aramon still stuck out wide. By the time they got to the last there were five almost abreast yet coming out of it Aramon was three lengths down. He did incredibly well to battle past Embittered and BMUB in the run to the line but by then SR had scooted four lengths clear. Aramon must be some tool to get so close to SR in those circumstances giving him 12lbs.

 

[Desert Orchid]

Gold Cup - good enough race to watch but I wonder if there's any real class in it. Best Mate hoovered up three Gold Cups beating handicappers along the way and maybe ABP will get to do the same. I just hope Santini improves again next season. LIT has run well for a yard that had a disappointing week. Monalee got chopped up a wee bit at the top of the hill by Santini. I suspect this year's RSA principals will merit serious consideration next year, given normal progress.

I've watched the race through a few more times. Santini should have won. My earlier impression that he doesn't like being in the thick of it was reinforced. He was sticky at his fences until a little bit of space opened up around him when he then became quite fluent.

He was in the lead on the rail approaching the home turn and I just wonder if ABP squeezed him up slightly approaching two out because he seemed to lose two lengths and momentum. He put in a good jump but it took him on to ABP's quarters so he had to check, losing a little ground and momentum again but just as he was making up the ground at the last LIT squeezed him out and he had to check and switch round him. Once in the clear he started motoring again and had closed the gap to a neck at the post.

I think he's the best of this field. Whether he can stay ahead of the RSA field by next year's race remains to be seen.

 

[Slim]

Presenting Percy was getting a lovely creeping ride.

 

[HawkWing]

I've watched the race through a few more times. Santini should have won. My earlier impression that he doesn't like being in the thick of it was reinforced. He was sticky at his fences until a little bit of space opened up around him when he then became quite fluent.

He was in the lead on the rail approaching the home turn and I just wonder if ABP squeezed him up slightly approaching two out because he seemed to lose two lengths and momentum. He put in a good jump but it took him on to ABP's quarters so he had to check, losing a little ground and momentum again but just as he was making up the ground at the last LIT squeezed him out and he had to check and switch round him. Once in the clear he started motoring again and had closed the gap to a neck at the post.

I think he's the best of this field. Whether he can stay ahead of the RSA field by next year's race remains to be seen.

Sounds from that summary that he lacks the tactical speed to win a Gold Cup.

 

[Frankel]

He was only unlucky because he lacked tactical speed in a slower run race. The best horse won who stays and has tactical speed. He won last year in a much faster time and now in a slower race.
Santini can come again, with more pace which is most likely, he has every chance to go one better. Like last year though ABP could be hard to beat.
One from the RSA and maybe the French horse could get amongst it!

 

[Slim]

Thursday

Marsh - Great race, great finish, but... a 12yo 'novice' nearly winning and a dodgepot getting the better of a serial failure? and the next two rated 153 and 149 running to within an ounce of that differential? Taking those two as a line, the front three are all around the 156/157 mark, coincidentally Samcro's rating. I'm afraid that doesn't bode well for the future of this field. I imagine the beaten horses will be prepared next season with the handicaps in mind. I suspect Imperial Aura would have beaten the lot of them.

Pertemps - I honestly thought Sire De Berlais was a decoy for another JP job. For me, he really had to improve a fair bit on all known form but he did exactly that and, in the process, beat another serious plot in The Storyteller. These two were well clear of a mixture of likely plots and well-handicapped rivals and the form looks hot. I imagine we won't see too much of the principals until next year's festival. I still can't fathom the ride that Relegate got. Not the only bad ride we saw from Townend during the week, I should add. Dream Berry was one of my minor bets in the race and the one I thought SDB might be decoying for but I see the vet reported the horse suffered an overreach. I'm going to keep this one in mind but it might be next year before we see him trying again.

Shitebagair - I have no issues with Min and A Plus Tard fighting out the finish of this race but I do have an issue with Saint Calvados being right in between them and looking a wee bit unlucky. I'd backed him in the Arkle only for him to bomb that day and he did likewise in the following year's Champion Chase. He had looked back and better than ever in handicap performances this season but he'd already gone up to 161 for them. There was nothing that entitled him to split horses rated 170 and 166 and it leads me to double the form, especially with Frodon seemingly well below his best. It was the slowest finish of the day for the chases and SC came from the back so the chances are they went too fast, especially Frodon. I'm tempted to rate the race via SC but allow the other two and Frodon mark-ups. (Should it be 'marks-up'?)

Stayers - with Paisley Park not running his race and the race itself being run far too fast and finishing very slowly, the form isn't worth taking seriously. The chances are Paisley Park will be a better price than he should be next time. I plan to recoup what was by a long way my heaviest bet of the week.

BAMS - this struck me as one of the more predictable results of the week, especially after Imperial Aura's impressive win. I probably should be less averse to shorter prices in big-field handicaps and if it wasn't Cheltenham with all its obscure Irish plots I'd probably have been happy to back Simply The Betts. Most of the form makes perfect sense and the race will continue to provide future winners.

Mares' Nov Hdle - I'm really kicking myself for not backing Concertista. And when I'm not kicking myself I'm banging my head off the door jamb. Talk about not seeing the wood for the trees. Even allowing for backing a couple of longshots in the hope of another surprise, Concertista did exactly what my gut said she should do: improve 10lbs or more on last year's form.

Kim Muir - my strategy of throwing the form book out of the window and backing the best jockeys backfired. I'm not sure Codd should be blamed for Le Breuil's poor run; the horse never seemed to be travelling. I haven't seen or heard any excuses being offered and the void National bet is probably a result for me. O'Connor, on the other hand, was either told there were doubts about Champagne Platinum getting the trip or he was showing off. His exaggerated hold-up tactics certainly didn't pay off. A race best forgotten.

Marsh - Revisionist history. Now everyone wants to call it a bad race. It was obvious going into the week that it was a very bad race and that Samcro who has form in the 160s was being written off after TWO chase starts. Absolute madness and some of us punished the bastards for it.

Pertemps - Sire Du Berlais was a plot in plain sight. He was only 7lb higher than the previous year where everything went wrong and he still won handy. His mark was protected and he wore first time headgear which no doubt brought out improvement. A fine example of why Gordon Elliot racks up so many winners at the festival, this was a genius bit of campaigning. Relegate was so far behind because he doesn't jump well enough. If they solves that he wins any handicap they like over 3 miles.

Kim Muir - the most impressive gamble of the week. They kept their powder dry and waited until 10 mins to the off. 14s into 9s in the Cheltenham ring takes a lot of money. This was the final piece in the jigsaw as to why Ravenhill went for the National Hunt Chase.

 

[Slim]

He was so well in, you'd wonder when exactly he was plotted

I didn't see as much racing this year as I usually would (too many real life distractions) but when you see something like this, it makes me think how the fck did I miss it

Ah for the love of Jesus. He was the most disgusting stopping job of the season at Fairyhouse in January and I can't help thinking the UK handicapper won't forget this one.

 

[Slim]

I've watched the race through again and the final half-mile or so several times. The more I watch it the worse the Aramon ride gets. I'm still not suggesting he would have beaten the winner but it could have been a lot closer. SR was further back early on than I'd realised but while Geraghty got him into midfield by the second flight, Aramon was still in the last trio and wide. Aramon was about five lengths behind SR (midfield) at the top of the hill and it looked like Aramon made up most of that ground on the downhill run. Somehow, SR was five lengths in front again turning for home with Aramon still stuck out wide. By the time they got to the last there were five almost abreast yet coming out of it Aramon was three lengths down. He did incredibly well to battle past Embittered and BMUB in the run to the line but by then SR had scooted four lengths clear. Aramon must be some tool to get so close to SR in those circumstances giving him 12lbs.

Was a tough one getting beat by the dirtiest green and gold of the week.

 

[Slim]

Friday

Triumph - I must admit I found it hard to buy into the pre-race hype about Goshen but he was going to win impressively. Right now I wouldn't touch him with a barge pole for next year's Champion Hurdle, though, because he'll only be five. If he comes out next season and shows himself to be a 170+ 5yo I might change my mind, though. The feeling beforehand was that the juveniles weren't really up to much and that appears to have been borne out.

County - usually a very good race for me and I do think I might have backed Saint Roi in a normal year but it doesn't alter the fact that Townend had Aramon in the wrong place for most of the race. I can't imagine he was riding to instructions, unless those instructions were to gift Saint Roi the race. After all, if the winner was their Supreme horse at one point there was never going to be any way Aramon was going to give him 12lbs.

Albert B - of the principals, on RPRs only Janidil has failed to run to or better than its OR, failing by 8lbs but he was beaten too far for it to have made any difference to the placings. Monkfish has done by far the best of the prominent runners despite losing momentum with a blunder and can probably be considered better than the bare form and the one to take out of the race for next year.

Gold Cup - good enough race to watch but I wonder if there's any real class in it. Best Mate hoovered up three Gold Cups beating handicappers along the way and maybe ABP will get to do the same. I just hope Santini improves again next season. LIT has run well for a yard that had a disappointing week. Monalee got chopped up a wee bit at the top of the hill by Santini. I suspect this year's RSA principals will merit serious consideration next year, given normal progress.

Foxhunters - pile of shite III

Grand Annual - Chosen Mate might be another one that got away. I'm pretty sure he would have been on my shortlist at better odds had I been able to dig into the form. I suspected - without digging - as much but by the time I got to look at the race the price was gone. He beat two other Irish plots, which tells its own story. My rank outsider, The Bay Birch, ran much better than his finishing position considering he gave up the wide outside to no-one. I presume the jockey was riding to instructions but if the horse needs daylight like that he'll have no chance unless he gets to dictate the pace in a small field in a weaker race.

Martin Pipe - Probably fair enough form given the lines with Indefatigable and Dame De Compagnie but maybe a wee plot just missed out with The Bosses Oscar for whom nothing went right and he wasn't beaten at all far. Mill Green also deserves mention - as does his jockey's perseverance - as he was detached and scrubbed along from the off before flying up the hill but I suspect there may have been a bit of a pace collapse as Indefatigable had looked well held turning for home.

AB - Monkfish jumped poorly but has some engine. He looks a monster for next season.
Martin Pipe - Strangest result of the week and the form of it is absolutely worthless.

 

[Maruco]

Martin Pipe - Strangest result of the week and the form of it is absolutely worthless.

Can't agree with this. She gave a weight and a beating to Dame De Comagnie over course and distance in December. Dame De Compagnie scooted up in the Coral Cup. She should never have been the price she was especially with Rex Dingle on who is the best of the British conditionals.

And given that formline which clearly held up, Column Of Fire would have won as far as he likes. He's some tool, and I'll be interested to see if they stay over hurdles or go novice chasing. I suspect the latter, but he and Sire De Berlais would be the 1-2 in next years Stayers.

In all I have six horses I'm taking out of the race. Those two, plus Pileon, The Bosses Oscar, Mill Green, and Five O'Clock. All very useful horses to watch out for next season.

 

[granger]

Ah for the love of Jesus. He was the most disgusting stopping job of the season at Fairyhouse in January and I can't help thinking the UK handicapper won't forget this one.

I was away all Jan and didn't see a drop. I think we had a horses stopped thread on here before - stopper Mclernon

There is one thread for next year - all the plot horses running with the handbrake on for the big season handicaps

 

[Desert Orchid]

AB - Monkfish jumped poorly but has some engine. He looks a monster for next season.

Not so sure he jumped that badly but it occurred to me later last night that, with the other prominent runners fading, he won despite going too fast up front. I thought there was a great deal to like about the way he got home.

Martin Pipe - Strangest result of the week and the form of it is absolutely worthless.

Strange race, strange result but it did involve Indefatigable who had lines with Dame De Compagnie. I imagine some people will have backed the winner for that reason alone. The MP form usually works out subsequently but conditionals' races are a nightmare because so few of them are good enough judges of pace. Unexpected results are to be expected

 

[Maxbet]

Shitebagair - I have no issues with Min and A Plus Tard fighting out the finish of this race but I do have an issue with Saint Calvados being right in between them and looking a wee bit unlucky. I'd backed him in the Arkle only for him to bomb that day and he did likewise in the following year's Champion Chase. He had looked back and better than ever in handicap performances this season but he'd already gone up to 161 for them. There was nothing that entitled him to split horses rated 170 and 166 and it leads me to double the form, especially with Frodon seemingly well below his best. It was the slowest finish of the day for the chases and SC came from the back so the chances are they went too fast, especially Frodon. I'm tempted to rate the race via SC but allow the other two and Frodon mark-ups. (Should it be 'marks-up'?)

I think you got this race wrong DO, in particular Saint Calvados…SC ran way above his official rating in his previous race over the same CD in January. He was beaten on the nod by Oldgrangewood, giving him 15Lb. Mr Whitaker also confirms the strength of that calculation; rated 153 and running right up to it. That followed his first time out effort over 2m behind Defi, posting a mark only 3Lb shy of him.

You can excuse his Arkle running because the race was handed on a plate to Footpad by Davy Russell and Aiden Coleman. There wasn’t a man in the crowd that day that didn’t realise they had gone off at a unsustainable suicidal pace.

But the key to SC’s improvement has been the distance; by Saint Des Saint out of a Pistolet Bleu mare; he was always going to be better over further.

Both OGW and M W then fight out the finish in the Plate, the 6Lb reversal in weight bringing them much closer to each other than before but once again enhancing the value of the previous assessment. They ran to a mark of around 154 MW and 152 OGW in the Plate, that takes SC with his 15Lb extra, to a mark of around 169.

Now rather than flout the form with regard to Frodon, whom himself hasn’t looked entirely right this season, why not cross transfer the times of the Ryanair and the plate, ran 80 minutes apart, over the same CD. The 3 protagonists’ in the Ryanair, carrying an average of 6Lb more than the principles in the plate, finish 6 seconds faster….to me that’s just about 170..ish. And if they did, as you say, “go too fast” how remarkable is that.

Last but not least...Samcro ran to a mark of 157, carrying 6Lb less over half a furlong shorter in slower standard time...how remarkable is that too.

 

[Desert Orchid]

Much appreciated, Maxbet. I'll take a closer look once my near vision allows.

The thoughts laid out in my reviews so far are based on no more than watching the races live/recorded and/or a fairly cursory check back through the RP online facility set to 150% to allow me to read it!

It's good to know someone out there is keeping a close eye on the nuts and bolts of the form! It does help me enormously. I'm genuinely more interested in what is accurate than what I think might be accurate.

 

[HawkWing]

The more threads like this, the better for everyone.

 

[Colin Phillips]

It would be nice to have some thoughts on plots landed and those that went wrong. I don’t watch much racing these days but I do enjoy this sort of thread.

 

[Desert Orchid]

Bumper - I really fancied The Glancing Queen but was never happy watching it through the race. Looked like it was being prepped for another day, presumably Aintree so King will be sick as the proverbial pig with coronavirus that it's off.

King in his Weekender column today:

The Glancing Queen ran well in the bumper considering that it was her first run back and she'd had a far from easy preparation.

Last week, ahead of the race, he'd written:

The Glancing Queen is working as well as ever ahead of [the bumper] and she shaped encouragingly when we took her away to Lambourn last week.

He did go on to say it was a big ask and that he was looking forward to Aintree but I felt a place at least was possible at Cheltenham on the basis of 'working as well as ever'..

I tend not to read trainers' columns in the Weekender (or anywhere else for that matter) as they're nearly all just putting punters away. I made an exception to that last week

 

[Grasshopper]

Alan King is just fu*cking useless.

Message ends.

 

[Desert Orchid]

So what do you really think of him, GH?

 

[wilsonl]

Having got 25/1 about Blacko in the Fred Winter, who was backed off the boards overnight before running like a drain, I am in total agreement.

 

[Maxbet]

And given that formline which clearly held up, Column Of Fire would have won as far as he likes. He's some tool, and I'll be interested to see if they stay over hurdles or go novice chasing. I suspect the latter, but he and Sire De Berlais would be the 1-2 in next years Stayers.

I fancy Sire De Berlais (top rated in my book) myself, but I have a nagging doubt that he won't get the strong enough pace he needs throughout, in the Stayer's. They often dawdle for a circuit...The Pertemps is always a real stamina test.

 

[Maruco]

I fancy Sire De Berlais (top rated in my book) myself, but I have a nagging doubt that he won't get the strong enough pace he needs throughout, in the Stayer's. They often dawdle for a circuit...The Pertemps is always a real stamina test.

I wouldn't be too concerned Paul. JP would know that and would surely make an entry to ensure it's a proper test.

 

[Slim]

Can't agree with this. She gave a weight and a beating to Dame De Comagnie over course and distance in December. Dame De Compagnie scooted up in the Coral Cup. She should never have been the price she was especially with Rex Dingle on who is the best of the British conditionals.

And given that formline which clearly held up, Column Of Fire would have won as far as he likes. He's some tool, and I'll be interested to see if they stay over hurdles or go novice chasing. I suspect the latter, but he and Sire De Berlais would be the 1-2 in next years Stayers.

In all I have six horses I'm taking out of the race. Those two, plus Pileon, The Bosses Oscar, Mill Green, and Five O'Clock. All very useful horses to watch out for next season.

I'm sorry but I just can't have that at all. Far too many horses were out of the race after two hurdles, it was a complete mess of a race. I look forward to taking on the winner wherever it goes.

 

[Slim]

I was away all Jan and didn't see a drop. I think we had a horses stopped thread on here before - stopper Mclernon

There is one thread for next year - all the plot horses running with the handbrake on for the big season handicaps

A mate of mine had a big bet on it on the day and it was a hard watch. Davy is the best in the business and getting too far behind. Thankfully my mate recouped in the Grand Annual.