Cheltenham Race Reviews

Should be noted that years RSA horses were expected to overtake a mediocre crop of staying chasers this year.
 
One thing that I've noted is how the best horses are increasingly been held for handicaps rather than the championship novice events. The last two arkles have been terrible and you wouldn't be mad to think chosen mate would end up in front of them. Saints roi looks every inch a grade 1horse/likewise imperial aura.

It might be that for championship races to be viewed as such that some intervention is needed. Bigger differential in prize money perhaps
 
HawkWing said:
One thing that I've noted is how the best horses are increasingly been held for handicaps rather than the championship novice events. The last two arkles have been terrible and you wouldn't be mad to think chosen mate would end up in front of them. Saints roi looks every inch a grade 1horse/likewise imperial aura.

It might be that for championship races to be viewed as such that some intervention is needed. Bigger differential in prize money perhaps
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This started before this Festival and it has just become more prevalent in the last couple of Festival because so many good horses are getting concentrated in three or four big stables. Taking the cases of Elliott, Mullins, and Henderson particularly, they rate novices and hold back future graded horses and set about handicapping them for the big end of season handicaps. Elliott has being doing it for a while and the other two are slowly catching up.

For any handicaps, looking for the future graded horses from those stables is the starting point. It's logical that the smaller stables are hoping their best horses are future graded horses so end up more exposed. Clearly this is easier to do with hurdlers, but Gordon in particular has moved on and is doing a pretty good job with novice chasers too.

Essentially if your starting point in any handicap isn't these three you're bonkers. Sure find something else to back against them, but they're the ones (plus JO'B, Nicholls, and Skelton), habitually running future graded horses in handicaps. If the others win they get there by accident rather than by design.

Nicholls farms Saturday handicaps the same way. He's been at it for years.
 
Desert Orchid said:
RSA - I watched it again this morning. I think Champ is far superior to the other two, who I think are pretty high class. Not a lot went right for Champ through the race, imo. He appeared to fiddle quite a number of fences while Allaho in particular looked very fluent. I backed Allaho ante-post and thought he was a good thing, to be honest, but the ew steal on Champ was sound insurance. I did think wherever MI finished Allaho would be in front but suspected Champ could surprise on a going day. I think the sectionals show (it's a few days since I read them) that the front two died up the hill and Champ merely stayed on. It reminded me of Synchronized's Gold Cup. The problem with Champ is whether he will properly take to jumping. I think the other two will be serious Gold Cup contenders.
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This renewal might be even better than last year's. IMO MI and Allaho cut each other's throats by making their moves too early as they entered the straight. I have Allaho down as more of a Ryanair horse but Minella Indo is value for the Gold Cup at around 16s.

Champ who knows. The GC means more fences which isn't ideal. His engine is Altior like.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Shitebagair - I have no issues with Min and A Plus Tard fighting out the finish of this race but I do have an issue with Saint Calvados being right in between them and looking a wee bit unlucky. I'd backed him in the Arkle only for him to bomb that day and he did likewise in the following year's Champion Chase. He had looked back and better than ever in handicap performances this season but he'd already gone up to 161 for them. There was nothing that entitled him to split horses rated 170 and 166 and it leads me to double the form, especially with Frodon seemingly well below his best. It was the slowest finish of the day for the chases and SC came from the back so the chances are they went too fast, especially Frodon. I'm tempted to rate the race via SC but allow the other two and Frodon mark-ups. (Should it be 'marks-up'?)
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Form is poor. Saint Calvados is a late 150s horse tops. Min and A Plus Tard look non stayers at the trip on the new course and with the latter he also didn't jump that great either. I have him as a value bet for the QM as it seems the old course suits him much better, you can't rely on CPS getting to the meeting and Altior will be too old.
 
Surely Allaho is the horse to take out of this year as a winner of the Ryanair next year. A Plus Tard will go for the Champion Chase you'd think.

Simply The Betts and Imperial Aura will make it an interesting race too, and can't be discounted. I would say next year will be a full changing of the guard.
 
Maruco said:
This started before this Festival and it has just become more prevalent in the last couple of Festival because so many good horses are getting concentrated in three or four big stables. Taking the cases of Elliott, Mullins, and Henderson particularly, they rate novices and hold back future graded horses and set about handicapping them for the big end of season handicaps. Elliott has being doing it for a while and the other two are slowly catching up.

For any handicaps, looking for the future graded horses from those stables is the starting point. It's logical that the smaller stables are hoping their best horses are future graded horses so end up more exposed. Clearly this is easier to do with hurdlers, but Gordon in particular has moved on and is doing a pretty good job with novice chasers too.

Essentially if your starting point in any handicap isn't these three you're bonkers. Sure find something else to back against them, but they're the ones (plus JO'B, Nicholls, and Skelton), habitually running future graded horses in handicaps. If the others win they get there by accident rather than by design.

Nicholls farms Saturday handicaps the same way. He's been at it for years.
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Yes. I cottoned on to this a couple of years back too but maybe underestimated the ruthlessness with which they do it. But is it really so new? The brother constantly reminds me of how he latched on to Comply Or Die a year before it won the Grand National (and he did), saying that Pipe realised he wasn't quite going to be a Gold Cup horse so set about campaigning it for Aintree. Up to 147 for running second to Trabolgan in the RSA he was again behind the Henderson horse in the Hennessy for which he went up to 148 and pulled up in the Welsh National. Off subsequently for two years, for which he was 'allowed' 8lbs, he went down to 134 so had to get back up a bit to get into the big race. A good run in the Tommy Whittle got him up to 139 just in time for the weights coming out and he made the cut fairly comfortably at #33. He won the Eider to tee him up and took the National a heavily-backed 7/1jf.

Maruco and I latched on the Native River / Un Temps Pour Tout race at Newbury when they were novices. Native River ultimately won a Gold Cup while UTPT was campaigned to win the next two Ultimas off 148 then 155 (top weight).

Back in COD's day, I think Gordon Elliott was working at Pipe's. The germ of his festival strategy probably traces back to then and he's taken it to a new level.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
Friday

Triumph - I must admit I found it hard to buy into the pre-race hype about Goshen but he was going to win impressively. Right now I wouldn't touch him with a barge pole for next year's Champion Hurdle, though, because he'll only be five. If he comes out next season and shows himself to be a 170+ 5yo I might change my mind, though. The feeling beforehand was that the juveniles weren't really up to much and that appears to have been borne out.
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Going into the race, I really do not agree that it looked weak on paper

I am not a fan of juvenile races but this renewal peaked my interest

Goshen is not one that I would oppose next year on account of his age. My fear for him would be that he is kept for the flat
 
Euronymous said:
This renewal might be even better than last year's. IMO MI and Allaho cut each other's throats by making their moves too early as they entered the straight. I have Allaho down as more of a Ryanair horse but Minella Indo is value for the Gold Cup at around 16s.
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Agree with this and think it was a very good renewal

Minella really needs to settle, his jumping was perfect. I wonder how he would be under Davy for example
 
granger said:
Going into the race, I really do not agree that it looked weak on paper

I am not a fan of juvenile races but this renewal peaked my interest

Goshen is not one that I would oppose next year on account of his age. My fear for him would be that he is kept for the flat
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Competitive, certainly, with plenty in the 140-145 range. High class (Defi was a 157 juvenile), I wouldn't have thought so. In hindsight, Goshen clearly is high class.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Friday

Grand Annual - Chosen Mate might be another one that got away. I'm pretty sure he would have been on my shortlist at better odds had I been able to dig into the form. I suspected - without digging - as much but by the time I got to look at the race the price was gone. He beat two other Irish plots, which tells its own story. My rank outsider, The Bay Birch, ran much better than his finishing position considering he gave up the wide outside to no-one. I presume the jockey was riding to instructions but if the horse needs daylight like that he'll have no chance unless he gets to dictate the pace in a small field in a weaker race.
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He was so well in, you'd wonder when exactly he was plotted

I didn't see as much racing this year as I usually would (too many real life distractions) but when you see something like this, it makes me think how the fck did I miss it
 
Somewhere they have to drop a race next year to allow for the new Mares race, which one do you think they should choose ? Was thinking the Triumph to begin with but on reflection wondering about the Boodles.
 
I suspect they'll be happy to lose the National Hunt Chase. They'll perceive it as the race that carries the most risk irrespective of its history.

It's also worth mentioning that Gordon had the winner of this despite hiding him away in a handicap. Clearly he was also ridiculously well handicapped after he won this so cosily.
 
Diamond Geezer said:
Somewhere they have to drop a race next year to allow for the new Mares race, which one do you think they should choose ? Was thinking the Triumph to begin with but on reflection wondering about the Boodles.
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Boodles is attracting a good quality of young 'carefully managed' horse

Cross country is the one race, I genuinely couldn't care less about
 
Maruco said:
I suspect they'll be happy to lose the National Hunt Chase. They'll perceive it as the race that carries the most risk irrespective of its history.

It's also worth mentioning that Gordon had the winner of this despite hiding him away in a handicap. Clearly he was also ridiculously well handicapped after he won this so cosily.
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Straight to the Irish National (if it goes ahead)

He actually looks to me like he could be a graded horse
 
It should be the novices handicap chase because the Plate and the Marsh are perfectly acceptable alternative races for anything that is likely to win or place. A handicap with a weight range of 7lb is not a real handicap.
 
I think that it would be wrong to downplay the X-Country. The winner was given an RPR of 171, coincidentally the same as Tiger Roll last year, which is remarkable for a 6yo. He seems likely to stay in this specialist discipline because there's plenty of money to be made in France but, make no mistake, he is very good.
 
archie said:
It should be the novices handicap chase because the Plate and the Marsh are perfectly acceptable alternative races for anything that is likely to win or place. A handicap with a weight range of 7lb is not a real handicap.
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Plus one on this. Any amount of messing around to get close to, but not above 145, then it is almost run off level weights.

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