Cheltenham Race Reviews

sunybay said:
The other source you can use is go to an irish pub and ask the jockey for the info :lol:
Click to expand...

You keep using this line as if it's funny. You are aware that what gets said by jockeys in private conversations is not priced into the market and therefore of more value than Andy Holdings sectional ratings which he whores out to thousands of subscribers and then buries the price of the horse that it throws up at 9am every morning.

Maths will only get you far in betting. Unless you can out maths the big syndicates you may as well being trying to win the Masters off an 18 handicap in golf.

Also, Davy Russell admitted he gave the horse a bad ride on TV not in a bar.
 
Last edited:
Slim said:
Also, Davy Russell admitted he gave the horse a bad ride on TV not in a bar.
Click to expand...

Many's the time I've left a football pitch thinking I had a crap game only be told in the pub I should have been MOTM.

I've also had games in which I thought I'd done well only to end up on the receiving end of criticism.

I don't think we should ignore what a jockey thinks/thought but I'd sooner place my trust in the maths.
 
sunybay said:
You have to do it or to buy it (big problem for most people)

About the interpretation some big problems too
you dont have to be lazy and more importantly the level of understanding of maths (big problem in this society we live)

The other source you can use is go to an irish pub and ask the jockey for the info :lol:
Click to expand...
To put not too fine a point on it; your 'facts' are so much bull sh*t.
Do hese people who produce their own 'sectionals' time exactly where each horse takes off from and identify that same spot on subsequent circuits; how much time do they allow for an indifferent jump at an obstacle and exactly how much time do they allow for a hurdle/fence being missed out of a race, when the situation often changes from one race to the next, or do they allow for a horse changing pace on what's often a long run between obstacles?
Don't get me wrong - I believe NH 'sectionals' are very useful to those that give them credence, and I've nothing but admiration for some of those who are as meticulous as feasible in forming them but they're most definitely not 'facts' and untll they're electronically timed over furlong-by-furlong, they are not truly sectionals.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I don't think we should ignore what a jockey thinks/thought but I'd sooner place my trust in the maths.
Click to expand...

Been thinking about this while out catching up on my first walk outside for 10 days. I should maybe put it into more of a context.

I have big figures for the Supreme. They suggest the race is well above average. However, NdB's post-race comments supported my visual take on the race, ie that Shishkin won despite nothing going right during it and is probably considerably better than the numbers say. I don't know if NdB said at any time that he rode a crap race - I don't think he did, he was just unlucky - and some people might say he rode a brilliant race to get the horse up following a nightmare run.

Opinions are opinions. Sometimes they'll never be proved right or wrong. We can agree or disagree but the only opinions I dislike are ones put forward, or even forced on us, with no rationale to support them.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Many's the time I've left a football pitch thinking I had a crap game only be told in the pub I should have been MOTM.

I've also had games in which I thought I'd done well only to end up on the receiving end of criticism.

I don't think we should ignore what a jockey thinks/thought but I'd sooner place my trust in the maths.
Click to expand...

I have posted several links where the maths can't even be agreed upon amongst sections heads.

Davy Russell is a top class jockey and he openly admitted he had Envoi Allen badly positioned. All of us who watched the race thought he was in trouble and he touched 4.2 in running. So for people to dismiss his comments and use sectionals as "facts" is a bit rich for my liking. If I owned a bookmaker I'd love a shop full of sectional worshipers.
 
reet hard said:
To put not too fine a point on it; your 'facts' are so much bull sh*t.
Do hese people who produce their own 'sectionals' time exactly where each horse takes off from and identify that same spot on subsequent circuits; how much time do they allow for an indifferent jump at an obstacle and exactly how much time do they allow for a hurdle/fence being missed out of a race, when the situation often changes from one race to the next, or do they allow for a horse changing pace on what's often a long run between obstacles?
Don't get me wrong - I believe NH 'sectionals' are very useful to those that give them credence, and I've nothing but admiration for some of those who are as meticulous as feasible in forming them but they're most definitely not 'facts' and untll they're electronically timed over furlong-by-furlong, they are not truly sectionals.
Click to expand...

Electronically is what you need in 100m race, for a marathon you dont need to be so accurate

The furlong by furlong is not need, you can put the parcials where you want, in fact over NH, the fences or hdls is a good point

Finally , the sectionals are not for predicting winners, is to understand what happened , and that could be a help for a future punt but not necessarily
 
Slim said:
I have posted several links where the maths can't even be agreed upon amongst sections heads.

Davy Russell is a top class jockey and he openly admitted he had Envoi Allen badly positioned. All of us who watched the race thought he was in trouble and he touched 4.2 in running. So for people to dismiss his comments and use sectionals as "facts" is a bit rich for my liking. If I owned a bookmaker I'd love a shop full of sectional worshipers.
Click to expand...


Slim
people like you dont own bookmakers....
 
sunybay said:
Electronically is what you need in 100m race, for a marathon you dont need to be so accurate

The furlong by furlong is not need, you can put the parcials where you want, in fact over NH, the fences or hdls is a good point

Finally , the sectionals are not for predicting winners, is to understand what happened , and that could be a help for a future punt but not necessarily
Click to expand...
'
What you're saying is it's fine to guess what happened, but it isn't when it leads to conclusions such as Hurricane Fly 'outstayed' the likes of Rock On Ruby and Zarkander in the 2013 CH, which clearly didn't fit with any of their profiles.
 
Fly fans felt he wasn't at his best in 12 and that revenge would happen a year later.
The twice Fly won the the Champion were the slowest in which he ran.
 
reet hard said:
'
What you're saying is it's fine to guess what happened, but it isn't when it leads to conclusions such as Hurricane Fly 'outstayed' the likes of Rock On Ruby and Zarkander in the 2013 CH, which clearly didn't fit with any of their profiles.
Click to expand...

The profiles..... interesting

Sometimes you think one thing and it is the opposite

Hurricane Fly run was not very fast that year and was the speediest of the field
it was his speed what won

plenty of examples, even people as intelligent and shrew as gosden do things like with Cracksman
he was retired of the dante because gs ground was too soft and ended his career with his bext performance on heavy ground
 
sunybay said:
thats a difficult question
what figure are you thinking?
more or less?
Click to expand...

The point is not currency it's that there are many many ways to get paid betting. Anyone serving only at the altar of sectional timing will struggle to make the game pay. Just look at the Will Hoffman character that I outed as a fraud on Twitter. He was being hailed as a betting genius with his stopwtch analysis. It turned out he spent his evenings crying on his bathroom floor. It's now the hip thing in racing betting to be a "sectional expert". Not one of them a winning punter.

And to the original point, it is not correct to cite sectional timing as the only piece of evidence required to say whether Envoi Allen was well or badly placed from two out.
 
Slim said:
And to the original point, it is not correct to cite sectional timing as the only piece of evidence required to say whether Envoi Allen was well or badly placed from two out.
Click to expand...

Would not have been well places if sorrounded by 20 horses not allowing his move, other than that he was in a better place than the other 2 placed horses.
I will not continue this post to make understand something to some that dont want or cant .
 
sunybay said:
Hurricane Fly run was not very fast that year and was the speediest of the field
it was his speed what won
Click to expand...

So are you saying there was a lack of pace early/mid race and he simply had too much boot for them at the end of the race?
 
Last edited:
sunybay said:
Would not have been well places if sorrounded by 20 horses not allowing his move, other than that he was in a better place than the other 2 placed horses.
I will not continue this post to make understand something to some that dont want or cant .
Click to expand...

Maybe you should ask Davy why he was panicking turning for home if he was so well positioned.
 
sunybay said:
Hurricane Fly run was not very fast that year and was the speediest of the field
it was his speed what won
Click to expand...

Entirely agree, but SR, and other sectionalistas, had the Fly down as outstaying them, which emphasises the original point:You can't entirely trust hand-timed sectionals over NH distances, no matter how sophisticated one's approach.
 
sunybay said:
Hurricane Fly run was not very fast that year and was the speediest of the field
it was his speed what won
Click to expand...

Entirely agree, but SR, and other sectionalistas, had the Fly down as outstaying them, which emphasises the original point:You can't entirely trust hand-timed sectionals over NH distances, no matter how sophisticated one's approach.
 
FWIW, Timeform go as follows for the top novice hurdlers:

160p Envoi Allen
159p Shishkin
158 Abacadabras
150p Saint Roi, Monkfish
150 Asterion Forlonge
149 Easywork, Fury Road, Latest Exhibition, Thyme Hill
148p The Big Getaway
146 Concertista
 
Without getting dragged into an argument that has been done to death a thousand times:

re Sectionals - and time more generally - whilst the numbers on the clock are measurable, the ground is always, always a subjective measure, and given the co-dependent relationship between the pair, times can only ever be considered a implicity-accurate measure of performance, rather than an explicitly accurate measure.

Additionally, given the pace can only be subjectively-measured/ guessed-at beforehand, application of Sectionals/Times alone to determine an outcome, is compromised.

To me, it’s just one more factor that you can weight into your calculations or not - depending on taste. The suggestion that it somehow holds the key, or is otherwise a stronger indicator to an outcome, is piffle - for the reasons given above.
 
Grasshopper said:
FWIW, Timeform have Sharjah top-rated hurdler on 163, with Epatante on 161p.
Click to expand...

Therefore in a race, with the 7lbs allowance, Epatante would be 5lbs clear.

Just out of curiosity, I take it they don't have a figure for Buveur D'Air?

Any idea of what kind of figure BD'A had last season?

I'm mindful of Hendo's remark that Epatante was 'in theory JP's third choice' for the Champion Hurdle, the other being last year's winner.
 
Back
Top