Cheltenham Race Reviews

sunybay said:
This is the problem of writing in the forum

One says the pace was not strong because the jockey told it to a friend in a pub

then come another says the same because he has watched the race again and he thinks so

It doent matter what the clock says.....

On the positive side , it is good so many people dont want to buy the sectionals, do it or understand it,
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And nobody said anything about the pace. I said that Davy Russell admitted he had the horse badly positioned and thr horse got him out of trouble.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
Since suny bay brought us back round to sectionals, I thought I'd check back for my own conclusions from earlier in the thread.
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Then, how do you explain EA's low t/s figure (115)? Or was the pace so fierce, he ran stones below what you'd expect him to?
 
sunybay said:
the more you write , the worst for your case
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Matter of opinion. If we all agreed on everything there would be no betting markets. I do love the moral high ground of sectional advocates. Sometimes your eyes tell you more than the numbers.
 
I would be reluctant to attribute 'moral high ground' to either side.

Sectionals aren't the be all and end all. They're merely another useful means of verifying either what your eyes tell you or what your reading of the form tells you, or even of what a jockey or pundit reckons is the case.

Oh, and they're also very useful for contradicting what your eyes or form-reading tell you.

At least that's how I take them.

But I do firmly believe they are a very useful tool to have in your box.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
But I do firmly believe they are a very useful tool to have in your box.
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Betting is all about having an array of weapons in your arsenal. Anyone depending on one or two will struggle to make money. And let's be honest here whether Russell gave this the worst ride or best ride of all time makes zero difference. We all came away from the race thinking Envoi Allen should have no doubters left.
 
Slim said:
We all came away from the race thinking Envoi Allen should have no doubters left.
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Yes, all of us did.

It was a tremendous impression he created.

What sectionals do is help put that impression within a wider context and help to quantify it. A sharp observer can maybe quantify it innately or instinctively. Sectionals allow us to put a figure on it.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Yes, all of us did.

It was a tremendous impression he created.

What sectionals do is help put that impression within a wider context and help to quantify it. A sharp observer can maybe quantify it innately or instinctively. Sectionals allow us to put a figure on it.
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What's the last horse you can think of that made this sort of an impression as a novice?
 
Is he basing that on sectionals or just visuals?

I think my first impression was along very similar lines, also based on visuals and probably the assumption that since the second and third had cut it out but were still there they must have gone just an even pace.

It was only when I looked at the sectionals that I realised that the pace had been over-strong through the race. The second and third can be marked up for staying ahead of the rest. All three are clearly very high class.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Is he basing that on sectionals or just visuals?

I think my first impression was along very similar lines, also based on visuals and probably the assumption that since the second and third had cut it out but were still there they must have gone just an even pace.

It was only when I looked at the sectionals that I realised that the pace had been over-strong through the race. The second and third can be marked up for staying ahead of the rest. All three are clearly very high class.
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Problem is all the sectional/time guys have different opinions on the race so the idea that the data is the data is simply not true.

Andy Holding:

Wednesday March 11
Ballymore Novices' Hurdle – The Big Getaway
Ultimately, Envoi Allen ended up being an extremely impressive winner of this Grade 1 event, but some of the plaudits should also be afforded to Willie Mullins’ gelding for making it such a stern test and ensuring the winner worked harder than his pre-race price suggested.

Arriving at the Festival following a victory at a fairly low level at Naas, it was difficult to gauge what the son of Getaway would be capable of achieving in a much tougher environment, but he rose to the challenge in spectacular fashion and he is very much one for the future. Although fading late on, his early fractions meant the race was run in one of the fastest furlong-per-furlong times of the entire week and considering this was achieved by a horse who ostensibly is a three-mile chaser in the making, his career path is definitely worth monitoring closely.
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Sectionals aren't subjective, they're factual. It's how people interpret them and use them that's subjective.

If a horse is dominant and regularly beats the same horses off a fast pace, how would that same horse perform off a slow or muddling pace? The horse may just be so much better than the rest that it doesn't matter, or it may need a true pace to be dominant. Another horse at a bigger price may have a better turn of foot off a low pace and the odds on favourite gets turned over. Predicting how a future race will be run is the key to using past sectional evidence, along with some idea how much better or worse a horse will perform depending on the way a race plays out.

Also there is an x-factor which is how long in a season can a horse maintain that level of performance, and how long a break between races does a horse need to fully recover to be able to reproduce that form again. That's aside from general fitness/health. Too often we see an exceptional performance from a horse that doesn't back up next time, usually because it had a very hard race in doing so and needs a much longer break than it would after winning a soft race. I'm always wary of backing horses that have put in a big performance off anything less than a six week break, and prefer a full two months.

A case in point would be Cyrname and Altior at Ascot. The sectionals told us what we already knew, that they are two exceptional horses. The sectionals should have meant that they could both go and pick up three or four Grade 1's each without too much bother. through the season What happened to both was very different though, and both didn't really recover from the race, Cyrname's season turned in to a disaster, and Altior needed extended time off before Henderson thought he could run him again. Both Nicholls and Henderson also subsequently saying how much they regretted going for the race and taking each other on. Horses can usually only properly go to the well once a season. So it's my assertion that sectionals can also tell you when a horse has had a very hard race and when you might want to take it on next time at a very short price.

When expected outcomes don't happen, people say the sectionals were wrong, or are useless. That's completely untrue. They are absolutely factual, but they're just one tool among a whole set that have to be used together. Not least the ability to race read, and identify other risks to performance.
 
I largely agree with you, Maruco, but part of the problem is that some people do their own sectionals and get them wrong. It's like people used to time races using stopwatches. 20 people could time the race and you'd get 20 different times. Given that a second is probably worth at least six lengths (around 20lbs) at 5f at a downhill track like Epsom, a small error can have a big impact.

I think when we use "sectionals" we need to be using the same ones. Simon Rowlands is probably the industry's guru but he's probably got a team of people under him doing all the spadework. When I do my own, I'm really only experimenting to see how closely mine compare and I can calculate mine often before SR goes to print with his. Plus, I like the mental exercise!

I don't mind admitting I subscribed to Timeform's sectional info (Flat) a couple of seasons ago on the assumption that one decent edge in one race would pay for it for the season. It probably did. However, I didn't subscribe last season because too much of the information is AW related and there were no sectionals for the straight tracks at Ascot and other top Flat tracks. I also felt I could identify sectional markup candidates by my reading of a race using my own eyes, replays and form comments.

Once those gaps are plugged I'll probably get back on board again.

But I would definitely recommend keeping sectional analysis onside. I've found it definitely helps get a truer evaluation of the form.
 
Sectionals - the World over - are based on equal sections, and the fact is they've been bastardised for NH racing. They are essentialy a measure of pace over stated distances (and claims such as the fastest furlong-by-race of the whole meeting are pie in the sky when applied to races of unequal sections).
As measures of pace they are most realiably applied to shorter races where change of pace is likely to be less of an issue, and it follows (imo) that the longer the race the more the chances of an uneven pace.
It stands to reason, therefore, that the Ballymore (2m 5f) is open to interpretation other than that based purely on the clock, and visuals, the race commentary and the previous form of some of the protagonists all point in a different direction to it being a thorough test of stamina.
You pays your money, and you takes your choice, but I'll stick to where I know the clock doesn't lie.:whistle:
 
Yes so we should be spared "the data is the data" posts when there are different interpretations of the Envoi Allen ride.
 
Or take your own interpretation and run with it if you're confident in your own thoughts. Lazy views from others in the public domain can work for you in that scenario.
 
sectionals are FACTS as is weight carried , and difficult to measure is distance covered (trakus)

subjective is how much in hand a horse has, if he iddles or how his jumping in each fence make him to gain lengths

Difficult to measure is also where is the best ground and the wind effects if covered


All this factors could be of interest to interpret what happened and for betting in future


What is not so useful is what jockeys tell a friend in a pub , or the I watch the race in my tv again and I thought they were running in a fast pace.
 
reet hard said:
How are they facts if they're (mostly) hand-timed over indeterminate and manufactured sections?
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You have to do it or to buy it (big problem for most people)

About the interpretation some big problems too
you dont have to be lazy and more importantly the level of understanding of maths (big problem in this society we live)

The other source you can use is go to an irish pub and ask the jockey for the info :lol:
 
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