Christmas Hurdle Kempton Dec 26th

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The New One beat Rock On Ruby but was raised 10 pounds in the official ratings, a little high in my opinion, given Rock On Ruby is better for his first run.

The New One also beat Zarkandar, but I think there's an angle that suggests The New One is overrated for beating both of them tbh.

My Tent Or Yours has not been around the sharpish Kempton track before, he's worth going against at the prices.
I think he should have beaten Champagne Fever in the Supreme Novices Hurdle at Cheltenham.
I remember watching it, with all the build up beforehand, just couldn't understand how he didn't get past Champagne Fever in that race.

I'll be having a bet on Grumeti on Thursday, who loves a right handed track and really needed the run last time. He'll improve for The Fighting Fifth at Newcastle more than the winner, My Tent Or Yours, who re opposes here, imo.

If My Tent Or Yours increases his advantage it will be because he genuinely is a classier horse, but he wasn't good enough to beat Champagne Fever, who has since gone over fences?!

Grumeti E/W.
 
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Grumeti ran a respectable race at Newcastle before getting tired late on.I like him a lot but stable form is a slight concern.
 
track right up MTOY's street. should be favourite and will probably start as such.

backed @ 5/4.
 
A 'flat track horse' that won at Newbury in the Tote Trophy and Newcastle in The Fighting Fifth. Two of his best performances. Not buying that theory myself.
 
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MTOY doesn't find as much off the bridle as other horses. That much is clear. Obviously in handicaps and against outclassed opponents that doesn't really matter. But against other top class animals it is a concern.

So, he needs a fast run race in top company because his opponents will be going that much slower at the business end of the race and his lack of off the bridle pace won't be as much of a factor. He got beat in the Supreme because Ruby rode a masterclass on Champagne Fever, giving his mount enough of a breather at certain points in the race so he had enough pace left to be able to outbattle McCoy.

My concern in March is there might not be enough pace for him. If we could somehow get Overturn and Rock on Ruby to run he'd be nailed on.
 
My initial thoughts were that My Tent or Yours would be too quick for The New One around Kempton, the only concern is that it didn't work out that way in the Aintree bumper.
 
Euronymous said:
MTOY doesn't find as much off the bridle as other horses. That much is clear. Obviously in handicaps and against outclassed opponents that doesn't really matter. But against other top class animals it is a concern.

So, he needs a fast run race in top company because his opponents will be going that much slower at the business end of the race and his lack of off the bridle pace won't be as much of a factor. He got beat in the Supreme because Ruby rode a masterclass on Champagne Fever, giving his mount enough of a breather at certain points in the race so he had enough pace left to be able to outbattle McCoy.

My concern in March is there might not be enough pace for him. If we could somehow get Overturn and Rock on Ruby to run he'd be nailed on.
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Disagree with just about every single word of the above.
MTOY has speed to burn, and - barring heavy ground - they won't see which way he went at Kempton, no matter how the race is run.
He was outstayed in the Supreme, might have matured enough for that not to be a problem come next March, but is unlikely to be outclassed, whatever wins.
The invention of the new phenomenon of "lack of off the bridle pace" is just too daft to comment on.
 
Euronymous said:
MTOY doesn't find as much off the bridle as other horses. That much is clear. Obviously in handicaps and against outclassed opponents that doesn't really matter. But against other top class animals it is a concern.

So, he needs a fast run race in top company because his opponents will be going that much slower at the business end of the race and his lack of off the bridle pace won't be as much of a factor. He got beat in the Supreme because Ruby rode a masterclass on Champagne Fever, giving his mount enough of a breather at certain points in the race so he had enough pace left to be able to outbattle McCoy.

My concern in March is there might not be enough pace for him. If we could somehow get Overturn and Rock on Ruby to run he'd be nailed on.
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For what its worth, I agree with all this. As long as STD doesnt want for the last to make his move, I cant see how he loses. Over a furlong sprint MTOY may have an advantage, anything beyond that and TNO is clawing back any advantage and powering away. Dont think any awful lot has changed since the Aintree bumper between the two.
 
Everyone goes on about MTOY turn of pace but the TD team have always gone on about TNO speed. Iv backed my tent for the champion but with Nicky's yard not going too well and the new one been razor sharp after 2 runs already he should win. I'd of liked to have him on side come march but 3-1 or even shorter come Boxing Day how can u back him..
 
HawkWing said:
For what its worth, I agree with all this. As long as STD doesnt want for the last to make his move, I cant see how he loses. Over a furlong sprint MTOY may have an advantage, anything beyond that and TNO is clawing back any advantage and powering away. Dont think any awful lot has changed since the Aintree bumper between the two.
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To the contrary I think a lot has changed and one thing in particular. I'm a massive MTOY fan and it really pleased me to see him settle so well at Newcastle. It's the first time McCoy or Geragthy when he was riding him didn't have the arms pulled off of him. He seems to really be maturing with each race. That Aintree race MTOY was pulling and pulling all the way around and just ran out of juice at a critical stage. People also forget he was giving the new one 6lbs that day too.

After the Betfair last year I listened to McCoy in the post race interview and he was staggered at how a horse could pull so hard all the way around and still demolish the field as he did. He pulled like a train in the supreme and bar a master ride by Ruby he'd have won it. The fact that he now appears to be settling better gives him a lot more at the end of his race if needed.

Also with TNO, STD has identified that the horse has only one burst of pace and will be relying on TNO getting to the last, or the back of the last hard on the steel. Will the horse be still hard on the steel when My Tent eases up beside him before the last. I think sam will have to press the button between the last 2 & that's where MTOY will have the winning of the race, remember he's bred to win a Derby. Another thing in his favour is that My tent appears to hurdle much slicker at speed. If it was a Hurricane Fly or MTOY jumping the last in the International instead of Zarkandar TNO was beaten.

The money from 7 barrows appears to be down too. Evens at best, 10/11 most places from 6/5.

If he can't beat TNO around Kempton they have no business bringing him to Cheltenham for the Champion.

Im on at 6/5. My Tent to make Christmas.
 
I didnt see a lot more at the end of the FF. Has a 1/2f turn of acceleration. He is impressive on the bridle but questionable if he flatters. In the FF, he travelled but for me, didnt find an awful lot when pushed out. Enough to win from poorer animals but wasnt impressive. Didnt clear away and looked awkward when pushed out.

Did the Aintree novice hurdle tell anyone anything about MTOY? But the key again is that he needs the strong pace more than TNO.

I think The New One is a great price at odds against.

This racing game is great, isnt it?
 
Kauto Abu said:
To the contrary I think a lot has changed and one thing in particular. I'm a massive MTOY fan and it really pleased me to see him settle so well at Newcastle. It's the first time McCoy or Geragthy when he was riding him didn't have the arms pulled off of him. He seems to really be maturing with each race. That Aintree race MTOY was pulling and pulling all the way around and just ran out of juice at a critical stage. People also forget he was giving the new one 6lbs that day too.

After the Betfair last year I listened to McCoy in the post race interview and he was staggered at how a horse could pull so hard all the way around and still demolish the field as he did. He pulled like a train in the supreme and bar a master ride by Ruby he'd have won it. The fact that he now appears to be settling better gives him a lot more at the end of his race if needed.

Also with TNO, STD has identified that the horse has only one burst of pace and will be relying on TNO getting to the last, or the back of the last hard on the steel. Will the horse be still hard on the steel when My Tent eases up beside him before the last. I think sam will have to press the button between the last 2 & that's where MTOY will have the winning of the race, remember he's bred to win a Derby. Another thing in his favour is that My tent appears to hurdle much slicker at speed. If it was a Hurricane Fly or MTOY jumping the last in the International instead of Zarkandar TNO was beaten.

The money from 7 barrows appears to be down too. Evens at best, 10/11 most places from 6/5.

If he can't beat TNO around Kempton they have no business bringing him to Cheltenham for the Champion.

Im on at 6/5. My Tent to make Christmas.
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There is no money down rather some firms are taking a strong view that MTOY will go off odds on given the race conditions. I wouldn't be surprised if the great man played on the day though.
 
I suppose you could argue the point that he won the Fighting Fifth quiet impressively when you factor in that most of Hendersons stable stars were running stinkers. Grandouet, Oscar Whiskey, West Wizard along with Bobs Worth all turned over at ridiculously short odds, Bobs Worth apart.
 
This notion that MTOY needs a strong pace is barmy. The sternest pace he has faced was when beaten in the Supreme, having laughed at a good field off a steady tow in the Betfair.
It's TNO that needs the strong pace, and while his "one burst of speed" was coined after the Neptune trial, it wasn't nearly as evident back at 2m against a slow Zarkandar.
The only way MTOY gets beat at Kempton is in a bog, and only because they won't tear the guts out of him for a rehearsal.
 
when a horse pulls or races freely its usually a stronger pace that helps though Reet

i'm not really convinced that MTOY has really ever shown his true worth with racing keenly so often...the fact he has won races after wasting so much petrol is quite impressive

i think the wasted energy at Cheltenham cost him in the end and caused the flattening out..if that is the explanation then he is pretty smart to run such a race

i just can't see how a searching pace is a negative to him..i think it could be the making of him..if its a decent pace..i'll back him halfway round to beat TNO

the problem is that the likely pacemaker chapel house won't be taken seriously and will probably be 10/20 lengths ahead at some point
 
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reet hard said:
This notion that MTOY needs a strong pace is barmy. The sternest pace he has faced was when beaten in the Supreme, having laughed at a good field off a steady tow in the Betfair.
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He put up such a good figure in the Betfair because he was a near 170 hurdler running in a handicap off 149. And it wasn't that good a field really.

My original point was that he needs a fast pace against top quality opposition because when he comes off the bridle he could really do with his opponent(s) tiring like they would be doing off a fast pace.

The question of his needs is all relative - it depends on the opposition.
 
Hear what you're saying EC, but the nearest he's come to a searching pace was in the Supreme, and though he looked all over the winner approaching the final hurdle, he just didn't last home.
Same applies to Euro's point, really.
 
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I'm a huge MTOY fan and have taken the 8/1 with the sponsor about him winning this and the Champion - mainly on the assumption that this track should suit, he should only have one really serious opponent and should he prevail, he'll possibly be outright fav for March.

However - I am waiting to see him finish his races out better. His destruction of Forgotten Voice at Aintree semi-convinced me he was showing signs of that but there is still a nagging doubt after, again looking like he'd win pulling double, between the point of being pushed out and the finishing line at Newcastle, the 2nd actually made ground on him.
 
reet hard said:
Hear what you're saying EC, but the nearest he's come to a searching pace was in the Supreme, and though he looked all over the winner approaching the final hurdle, he just didn't last home.
Same applies to Euro's point, really.
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Did he fail to last home in the Supreme, was he beaten for class, or did he refuse to go past?

The answer isn't all that clear cut in my view, and you would want a strong opinion either way, to have a bet.

I don't, but if you put the gun to my head, I would likely come down marginally in favour of TNO, as he is high-class in his own right, will run his race, and put it all in.
 
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if a horse wastes energy through not settling he can flatten out like MTOY did in the supreme

as Euro says..he could afford to lose energy when racing off a low mark..but not in grade 1

i wouldn't question his ability to pass a horse tbh..its the settling that needs sorting

look how much better Frankel became when he settled

if he doesn't settle at Kempton he will get whipped by TNO

i wouldn't entertain backing him without seeing the first 6 furlongs...why would anyone chance it?

The New One is not a flat track 2 miler imo..never will be at the highest level..he will only win if MTOY gifts it to him
 
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i have an inkling it'll turn out MTOY's supreme second is better form than anything TNO can muster. it may end turning out not far away from that supreme in terms of the way the form ends up working out.

maybe TNO is extremely special though. will shall see.

if MTOY runs a bit keen again, it's a worry but i wouldn't write him off over it. if he does manage to settle in this. then look out.
 
Grasshopper said:
Did he fail to last home in the Supreme, was he beaten for class, or did he refuse to go past?
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Little question which looked the classiest horse approaching the last, and he did go past Champagne Fever, only for his stride to shorten almost immediately.
Strange how few seem to query TNO's 2m form, yet that's most likely to be his downfall.
 
As I posted after Cheltenham, I believe Champagne Fever wanted to win that race more than Ruby so no fault at all to MTOY that he was beaten.
I cannot separate him or TNO yet: am leaving the horses speak for themselves.
That TNO has course form should help even though this race is soon enough after International hurdle.
 
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