Christmas Hurdle Kempton Dec 26th

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TNO supporters might care to note the incidence of previous 20f winners capturing this prize.
It's almost invariably won by a specialist 2 miler, and only one horse this century (Intersky Falcon) had won a single race over the greater distance (a 3k novice at Market Rasen), prior to taking this.
It's a speed race, run on a speed track, and there should be no doubt which of the principals is best equipped to deal with it.
 
reet hard said:
TNO supporters might care to note the incidence of previous 20f winners capturing this prize.
It's almost invariably won by a specialist 2 miler, and only one horse this century (Intersky Falcon) had won a single race over the greater distance (a 3k novice at Market Rasen), prior to taking this.
It's a speed race, run on a speed track, and there should be no doubt which of the principals is best equipped to deal with it.
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I love stats with a cut-off point.

Just prior to this century the race was won by French Holly, Mighty Mogul and Muse.
 
reet hard said:
Little question which looked the classiest horse approaching the last, and he did go past Champagne Fever, only for his stride to shorten almost immediately.
Strange how few seem to query TNO's 2m form, yet that's most likely to be his downfall.
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Like I say, reet, you would be wanting to hold a strong opinion before having a bet. My attentions are naturally over-the-water insofar as the top 2m hurdlers are concerned, but the Xmas Hurdle does provide for an intriguing contest. I'm prepared to wait-and-see how things pan out at Kempton; my view being that the result can probably only rule one horse out of Champion Hurdle - and it would take MTOY's defeat to do so.

TNO can 'afford' to lose this, without impairing his Champion Hurdle chances - MTOY cannot, imo. :cool:

Merry Christmas to one and all.
 
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I have TNO 6lbs higher than MTOY - I will be very surprised if the going is not close to heavy - I think TNO handles heavy better than MTOY - TNO has won over C/D - TNO has finished in front of better horses than MTOY (Zarkandar, Thousand Stars, Oscar Whisky, Countrywide Flame, Grandouet & Rock On Ruby.) MTOY has it all to prove.
 
granger said:
Why do you think this Grass?

If the same theory is applied to the Irish race, how many of the 3 protagonists can afford to lose?
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Simply because. Heltenham will play more to TNO's strengths than Kempton. Conversely, I figure MTOY to be well-suited to Kempton, and if he can't beat TNO there, his chances of doing so at Cheltenham will be diminished.

As far as Ireland is concerned, something will be slit over Xmas; either Our Conor's throat......or my wrists.

A compelling few days sport regardless.
 
Grasshopper said:
Simply because. Heltenham will play more to TNO's strengths than Kempton. Conversely, I figure MTOY to be well-suited to Kempton, and if he can't beat TNO there, his chances of doing so at Cheltenham will be diminished.

As far as Ireland is concerned, something will be slit over Xmas; either Our Conor's throat......or my wrists.

A compelling few days sport regardless.
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Not to hijack Kempton, but Jezki is the one who could be the one to spoil the Fly party
 
I think kempton will suit MTOY much better than to TNO
But no bet race for me.

I dont think neither of them is going to win the champion hurdle.
 
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granger said:
Why do you think this Grass?

If the same theory is applied to the Irish race, how many of the 3 protagonists can afford to lose?
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You would have to say The Fly, if he cant beat them in Leopardstown he has no chance of doing it in Cheltenham, I think he can and will FWIW.
 
Grasshopper said:
Like I say, reet, you would be wanting to hold a strong opinion before having a bet. My attentions are naturally over-the-water insofar as the top 2m hurdlers are concerned, but the Xmas Hurdle does provide for an intriguing contest. I'm prepared to wait-and-see how things pan out at Kempton; my view being that the result can probably only rule one horse out of Champion Hurdle - and it would take MTOY's defeat to do so.

TNO can 'afford' to lose this, without impairing his Champion Hurdle chances - MTOY cannot, imo. :cool:

Merry Christmas to one and all.
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Very wise post, especially "my view being that the result can probably only rule one horse out of Champion Hurdle - and it would take MTOY's defeat to do so."

I am still with MTOY but not entirely sure why...
 
I'm not seeing how its important to win here if you want to be a CH contender..in fact winning this tends to show you aren't a CH contender at all..its a totally different test..in fact it couldn't be any different.

Just 3 winners of this have gone on to win the CH..the last one 23 years ago.

Actually being placed here is a bigger tell that Cheltenham is probably going to more suitable.

ROR was the classic example when he got beat for toe by Binocular in this race..Kempton didn't play to his strengths whereas Cheltenham did.

Obviously very good horses win under most conditions..to win this and the CH you need to be as good as Lanzarote..Dawn Run or Kribensis.

At the highest level a decent horse needs everything in its favour...type of track/test being one part of it..really decent horses can overcome various negatives to win...whereas your average G1 hurdler can underperform if everything isn't just right
 
Oh yes.

Well, he battles for those who said he can't.

Terrific race. Though not quite the formality NTD said it was before the race..'
 
Hamm said:
Oh yes.

Well, he battles for those who said he can't.

Terrific race. Though not quite the formality NTD said it was before the race..'
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nothing to do with battling imo Hamm..he didn't pull in the race was the difference..if they had gone faster would have won further..was pulling away in the last 50 yards

won't see which way Our Conor goes though at Cheltenham:)
 
They murdered a couple of decent types there and the race was not run to suit MTOY. I'm scared of Our Conor and I'm on Jezki at nice prices but TNO and Hurricane Fly don't overly concern me.
 
Hamm said:
If you can't appreciate the quality of that, you should give up.
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I've forgotten more about this game since my first sh*te this morning, than you'll learn in a lifetime.

Have a coke and a smile, and go fornicate yourself with a cold stone. :cool:
 
EC1 said:
nothing to do with battling imo Hamm..he didn't pull in the race was the difference..if they had gone faster would have won further..was pulling away in the last 50 yards

won't see which way Our Conor goes though at Cheltenham:)
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It was in response to what others said, I never saw an issue.
 
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