Christmas Hurdle Kempton Dec 26th

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I've watched the race back, and concede I may have been too parsimonious in my original assessment.

They pulled a long way clear of a smart handicapper in Semategal, and it's very open to a positive interpretation. Yet I can't shake the feeling that both are vulnerable.

In the case of MTOY, I've still got concerns about what he might find in a proper scrap, as I thought he was just-about held jumping the last, when TNO made the error.

As far as TNO is concerned, today's race inflated what was previously a minor concern about how long he can stay on the bridle. There's no doubting his tenacity, but I'm not convinced he has the raw tactical speed of a top 2-miler.

All that said, there are plenty of interpretations which would enhance both horse's CH credentials, and I'm happy to admit that it would be foolish to write either off at this stage.

And I hope I've addressed Hamm's original point in more lucid and less rude terms this time around.

Goodwill to all men. :cool:
 
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Fair enough EC and would be nice to see him live up to the high standards he has set.

Whichever, it's great to see such a competitive year akin to Hardy Eustace, Brave Inca, Harchibald, Macs Joy et al.

4/1 the field on the day given that most will avoid each until then - Irish Champion aside possibly.

I still think Un De Sceaux could be the fly in many an ointment if Willie allows him to take his chance.
 
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frontrunner said:
Does Sametegal finishing position in today race not throw a spanner in the above?
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that depends if you read form by waiting for a horse to meet conditions it doesn't act on and then judging it on that run.

Sametegal was never going to like the ground and made a mistake 3 out that would take most horses into last place..i never gave him an earthly today under the conditions

before today Sametagal has nearly won the greatwood off 11-7..not bad for a 4yo..one of the most competitive handicaps of the season.
 
EC1, do you factor anything in for ground deterioration between races?

I seem to recall something from Chasers & Hurdlers on this matter - possibly in either the Champagne Fever or Hurricane Fly essays - and I think the proposition was that the Supreme started on 'firmer' ground, as not all of the frost had gotten out of it......hence the faster time.......or something like that anyway.

I can't recall if there was any firm conclusion on this, so was wondering if you had any thoughts around this yourself? :cool:
 
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Grasshopper said:
EC1, do you factor anything in for ground deterioration between races?

I seem to recall something from Chasers & Hurdlers on this matter - possibly in either the Champagne Fever or Hurricane Fly essays - and I think the proposition was that the Supreme started on 'firmer' ground, as not all of the frost had gotten out of it......hence the faster time.......or something like that anyway.

I can't recall if there was any firm conclusion on this, so was wondering if you had any thoughts around this yourself? :cool:
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no;)
 
seriously..the day of the supreme/CH was odd in some way for sure..but imo..my sectional calcs tell me that pace was the difference between the two races..thats it really..frost could have been it..we'll never really know
 
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Grasshopper said:
EC1, do you factor anything in for ground deterioration between races?

I seem to recall something from Chasers & Hurdlers on this matter - possibly in either the Champagne Fever or Hurricane Fly essays - and I think the proposition was that the Supreme started on 'firmer' ground, as not all of the frost had gotten out of it......hence the faster time.......or something like that anyway.

I can't recall if there was any firm conclusion on this, so was wondering if you had any thoughts around this yourself? :cool:
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Aye; that'd be them trying to justify their daft reading of the 'sectionals' on the day (which is, no doubt, why you asked). :lol:
 
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