Christmas Hurdle

It's very rare that I let the heart rule the head on punting issues, but I've taken a small interest at a decent price in such a small field, which realistically only has about 3 potential winners (if that). I'm hoping that McCoy is right in his assertion that Straw Bear "came down the hill like a winner but stopped quickly and I'm hoping he just needed the run".

The horse clearly felt ok to him as he was in the process of delivering him, and at 7/1 (ish) must be worth a chance. I reckon Harchibald could just skip away from these though and win as he chooses to. You know that feeling when you press the 'submit bet' button and a second or so later think why the hell did I do that, I've just given some money away? :laughing:
 
I agree with EC1 that Punjabi has a big chance. Lack of a run is a slight worry, but he looks an ideal Kempton horse and I reckon that NJH has this as his Champion Hurdle so should be cherry ripe.
 
I'd really fancy Punjabi if we hadn't had all that rain yesterday, it could still overtax his stamina.

There are so many reasons why none of the runners can win, so I've had a microbet on Penzance who is overpriced at 25/1.
 
Brilliant McCoy

Well done for Warbler having his faith rewarded...

Harchi - you are an enigma - an absolute enigma
 
DOGGYBALD !!!!!

not worried about Harchibald beating Katchit now at Cheltenham.

Had every chance there, the quirks remain, A stiff Cheltenham hill say result.

Great ride A.P.

but Harchibald, the jury's back in.

GUILTY !!!! of finding nothing for pressure !!!!
 
Bit dis-appointed with Punjabi there.

Just shows that Harchibald still doesnt find much when asked and seems to dog it a little infront.

Great to see McCoy and Straw Bear back up, especially after the horses 'problems' in recent times.

Well done Straw Bear and again shakes up the Champion Hurdle market again.
 
Still can't see Harchibald out of the frame at Cheltenham

Katchit needs to be good enough to beat everyone else to challenge him...
 
Mccoy rode the race to Harchis weaknesses...superb. Ride of the season for me

Great for connections of SB after such an up and down time with the horse

As ever, I couldnt contemplate Harchi for Cheltenham
 
Harchie def dogged it when headed again and the only way to win with him* imo is to get his head in front right on the line - a v difficult feat with AP alongside you!! I'm sure Harchie could have done it if he'd chosen to - his head carriage and ears told the story :brows:

** I mean in a real battle, as that was

Good run from Penzance, he is now running again to the best of his ability
 
Originally posted by Bobbyjo@Dec 26 2007, 02:05 PM
Still can't see Harchibald out of the frame at Cheltenham

Katchit needs to be good enough to beat everyone else to challenge him...
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I dont think many people will argue with him being 'out of the frame', however, will he win? ? ? That is the biggest question.

He just doesnt like it when push comes to shove and i wouldnt be able to back him with any confidence at all for the Champion Hurdle, and definately wont be carrying my money.
 
At 7/8/1 as quoted on Channel 4 there...it's surely a fantastic each way bet...decent ground...Osana belting along...he'll be there on the bridle like 2005 coming up into the final 100 yards. Will he win? That's the question...I suppose it's hard to be filled with any confidence of that. But 1/4 odds @ 8/1? I'll take some of that, yes
 
Originally posted by Melendez@Dec 26 2007, 02:09 PM
Awful ride from Carberry, what was he thinking.
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The horse reminds me so much of Rock Hopper from the early 90s. Pat Eddery won a host of Group races on him by just leading right on the line. I know it`s tougher on jumpers but surely Carberry has the talent to accomplish it. He`s got two and a half months to get the timing down pat.
 
Originally posted by Bobbyjo@Dec 26 2007, 02:12 PM
At 7/8/1 as quoted on Channel 4 there...it's surely a fantastic each way bet...decent ground...Osana belting along...he'll be there on the bridle like 2005 coming up into the final 100 yards. Will he win? That's the question...I suppose it's hard to be filled with any confidence of that. But 1/4 odds @ 8/1? I'll take some of that, yes
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True, each way at 8/1 does look like a good bet, just a bet to win there is no way i could have.
 
Carberry did what many people wanted him to do in that Champion Hdl and the result is there.


Punjabi another from the Triumph, Katchit will not win the CH


Straw Bear
what a pity this horse is not with a better trainer.
 
Carberry did what many people wanted him to do in that Champion Hdl and the result is there.
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Precisely Suny....it was a pretty poor effort. You could see from a long way out he was going to hit the front too soon.

The camera angle of the replay today on Channel4 was brilliant and I advise everyone who has an opinion on Harchibald to go back and watch it closely. It ranges up right along side Harchibald the whole way up the straight. Look at the "rein tension" between Paul C's hands and Harchibalds mouth....if a horse truely was pulling double that rein should be straight and hard with plenty of tension but today (as is always the case with Harchibald) it was loose with little tension..Harchibald was giving absolutely everything he had on the bridle. Its only Paul Carberrys style of racing that makes it look like he is hacking over everything.

Horse simple does nothing in front and barely gets 2 miles...despite all that he just lost out to an inspired McCoy.
 
And so me old mate did have a Xmas hurdle in him, but given the record that this race has in sourcing the Champion Hurdler, as indeed the Fighting Fifth does too, I suggest we strike a line through both trials.

Somewhere on this thread I'm sure I speculated that Harchi might not like a strong pace as this would bring him into a the 'hurt zone', and make him susceptible to throwing the towel in etc. To some extent this idea went against the conventional wisdom that he needed a brisk pace. I'm increasingly convinced he needs something in the high 80's, low 90's on my scale (a mid position that isn't too slow, nor too fast). This race was won in a highly credible 97.85, suggetsing the pace was searching without being truly scintilating. It was a full 6.6 secs faster than the well regarded Song of Songs managed in the opening novice event, and was much nearer to the level that Straw Bear reached as a mature novice, and never really matched in open company. The race I think was run very much to suit SB's strengths as he's every bit the archetypal rhytmic sections horse, and this is probably the level he is.

Had Carberry waited on Harchi longer than he did, is it not possible that SB would have pulled out a gap that Harchi couldn't bridge? I don't know, but if Gal is right and the horse was giving everything he had, then it explains quite alot. In any event, it is hard to see him slugging it out on the hill come March. I made the going correction about -2.12 which is broadly in line with Good to Soft, which would have been ideal for the winner, as all his best performances on the clock have come on that surface. I suspect we've seent he best of SB, and close to the best that Harchi could manage in a true run race.

The form also puts SB ahead of Katchit now, and the proximity of Punjabi also goes someway to putting another nail in to the prospects of the 5yo's.

I'm increasingly coming around to three and 2 halves now;

Osana
Sizing Europe (god I hope a horse with such a crap name doesn't win a Champion)
Jazz Messenger

Hardy Eustace and Blythe Knight are the two halves, though the latter depends on McCoy doing the steering and after today, that's only going to happen if SB gets injured, or does get switched to novice chasing, (the latter option is an ever diminishing one).
 
I'm sure they would :D but the stop watch is neutral as Jazz has run the fastest time of the year that I've got hold off. Sublimity's never run one, and was lucky to inherit a 'funny' champion, to my way of thinking he's still got to prove he has the ability to win a 'normal' grade 1 that's run at a decent pace. That's to say he can't, only to say that date at least, he hasn't.
 
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