Christmas Hurdle

I must admit I have been very impressed with Jazz Messenger this season. Last season I didnt rate him but I have been impressed this season particularly his last run.

The worry is how his jumping will hold up in a bigger field.

I suspect we've seent he best of SB, and close to the best that Harchi could manage in a true run race.
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On that ground that is as good as he is. Going down the back straight Harchibald was not travelling on the ground, indeed Carberry had to nudge him a couple of times. On better ground his stamina will be less to the fore but his cruising speed will certainly help.

He might not be a betting proposition or one to bank your life on but he is such a talented horse it is impossible to rule him out of playing a big hand in the finish at Cheltenham at a race track where he has his best form.
 
Originally posted by Galileo@Dec 26 2007, 02:49 PM
Carberry did what many people wanted him to do in that Champion Hdl and the result is there.
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The camera angle of the replay today on Channel4 was brilliant and I advise everyone who has an opinion on Harchibald to go back and watch it closely. ....... Harchibald was giving absolutely everything he had on the bridle. Its only Paul Carberrys style of racing that makes it look like he is hacking over everything.
Horse simply does nothing in front and barely gets 2 miles...despite all that he just lost out to an inspired McCoy.
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That's true, but it's also the case that once Harchie has his head in front, that's it... If he's then passed again, it's 'game over'. It was the Ch4 re-run I was talking about above - Harchie's body language said it all. SB was imo all out, and I really don't think Harchie was - once he had been passed for the lead. He's what I call a "sulker". I'm still convinced he's the better horse, in terms of talent; but as we see so often it's 'will to win' which racks up the 1sts
 
That's true, but it's also the case that once Harchie has his head in front, that's it... If he's then passed again, it's 'game over'.
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But I honestly dont think its down to him being a "dog" which is far too easily thrown around these days....most of the time the sold called dogs are actually horses with a problem or hurting. Today it was down to the ground and tactics.

I have never seen Harchibald flash his tail, run around under pressure etc or the other signs of dodging the issue.

I'll repeat myself, go look at replay today and you can clearly see the jockey is giving the horse a lose rein long before the final hurdle. Horse is giving it all on the bridle and it sometimes amuses me at the horses like Brave Inca, Hardy Eustace etc are lauded for being so tough when the truth is they are being lazy feckers that are constantly holding something back until its finally drawn out of them with the whip!!! If the whip was taken out of racing it would be interesting to see which horses are then called the dogs!!!
 
Originally posted by Warbler@Dec 26 2007, 08:22 PM


Had Carberry waited on Harchi longer than he did, is it not possible that SB would have pulled out a gap that Harchi couldn't bridge?
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No. Harchie has such a terrific engine that that would only be possible if he was up against a horse that outclassed him. And i don`t think we`ve seen a hurdler with that kind of ability since Istabraq.
 
As a fan of Harchibald I think he was beaten fair and square today -I wouldn't be beating myself up looking for excuses-the horse has been beaten plenty of times.As regards the Champion Hurdle I don't think his chances have been diminished -he has his weaknesses but he certainly has his strengths.
 
I really don't see that Carberry could have done much more than he did today (but I can afford to be magnanimous, having got plenty of the 7/1 about Straw Bear this morning).

He hit the front later than he'd done at Newcastle - when he seemed to run on well enough - but was outbattled by a horse that is clearly superior to the likes of Al Eile.

The horse looked to give up once eyeballed and Carberry will need cojones the size of French bowls to put this ones head on the line at the very top level.
 
Fair enough - but you are still missing the point [I think] that Harchie was giving his all *before/until he was headed*.

He will get up - but won't get *back* up. He looked today, to me, as though he could have - I may be wrong of course. Reasons are of course another matter.
 
Harchibald is no longer good enough to be cruising 100yards out in the Champion.

As Galileo pointed out, he was not travelling aswell you might think from 2f out, and thats against Straw Bear let alone the rest of The Champion Hurdle field.

As for Penzance, Headstrong, this horse should have the blinkers back on, what is King playing at ?!
 
As Galileo pointed out, he was not travelling aswell you might think from 2f out, and thats against Straw Bear let alone the rest of The Champion Hurdle field.
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I am hoping that was due to the tacky ground.
 
Thats what Channel4 and the jockeys afterwards were saying...dead tacky ground. Harchibald was never travelling or jumping as he did at Newcastle.
 
I thought they went a really good gallop today too, which they didn't at Newcastle. Though I will say that Kempton, contrary to popular belief, can become an extreme stamina test in certain conditions.
 
I read that one firm has pushed Harchibald out to 10/1

That is a stonking bet...I don't care what anyone says about him!

If he turns up on song he won't be out of the first three
 
Originally posted by Desert Orchid@Dec 26 2007, 09:38 PM
He hit the front later than he'd done at Newcastle - when he seemed to run on well enough - but was outbattled by a horse that is clearly superior to the likes of Al Eile.

.
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Lazy throwaway remark about Al Eile who was won at 3 Aintree festivals in Graded races,a Haydock Champion Hurdle Trial and plenty of other good races.There is a year between them,their best ratings are within a pound of each other but after todays race Al Eile has won about 150K more in prizemoney.
 
Absolutely agreed Luke, when you consider some of the inferior beasts that get touted on here, Al Eile gets dissed needlessly. I'd take him over Punjabi or Blythe Knight or whoever else the latest cause celebre is.

In fact, I'm not sure under what basis Straw Bear can be considered significantly superior to Al Eile or indeed that much superior at all - I can presume its the Kingwell at Wincanton that Straw Bear is rated from but then Al Eile beat Afsoun comfortably at Aintree over a distance that is believed to be more suited to Afsoun's strengths.

But never mind. Some things never change.
 
Originally posted by LUKE+Dec 26 2007, 11:00 PM--></div><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td>QUOTE (LUKE @ Dec 26 2007, 11:00 PM)</td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'> <!--QuoteBegin-Desert Orchid@Dec 26 2007, 09:38 PM
He hit the front later than he'd done at Newcastle - when he seemed to run on well enough - but was outbattled by a horse that is clearly superior to the likes of Al Eile.

.
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Lazy throwaway remark about Al Eile who was won at 3 Aintree festivals in Graded races,a Haydock Champion Hurdle Trial and plenty of other good races.There is a year between them,their best ratings are within a pound of each other but after todays race Al Eile has won about 150K more in prizemoney. [/b][/quote]
You clearly don't agree, Luke, but it was anything but a lazy remark.
 
Originally posted by Bobbyjo@Dec 26 2007, 10:22 PM
I read that one firm has pushed Harchibald out to 10/1

That is a stonking bet...I don't care what anyone says about him!

If he turns up on song he won't be out of the first three
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Totally agree. I can`t see many if any horses with more ability than Straw Bear in the CH field and with better ground and a fast pace the race may fall into Harchie`s lap like it did Sublimity`s last year.
 
Last year Detroit City was lambasted for having ###### form. That was after he had beaten Hardy Eustace in the Bula ( favourable terms) and Straw Bear in the Agfa.

Now Straw Bear is being used to show how good Harchibald is !

Bobbyjo, what do you mean by 'some things never change' ?

I am not dissing Al Eile here, but he has his limitations and we know what they are. Is Al Eile not better at Two and a half ? A cosy beating of that horse over a slowly run two miles by a speed horse (Harchibald) does not advertise a horses Champion claims that greatly in my opinion, and neither does defeat by Straw Bear, a horse that couldn't beat Detroit City, in a fast run race at a track that supposedly suits him.

You are right some things NEVER change.

Is there not a chance that someone over there thinks this horse might not be as good as he was ?

This is reminding me of when Moscow Flyer was never going to win The Champion Chase again. At least that horse was a genuine champion.
 
I thought the analysis of Harchibald in The Racing Post by Lee Mottershead was absolutely spot-on. Here it is;

And so to Harchibald. At Newcastle in the Fighting Fifth he looked right back to his best, and there is no reason to believe he did not run every bit as well here. However, he remains a horse who finds next to nothing off the bridle, for all that he finds an awful lot on it, and he again came up short when the going got tough. Having turned into the straight in Straw Bear's slipstream, he ranged alongside at the second-last flight, but was only asked for an effort just before the final hurdle. Given a smack, he did produce a bit to go half a length in front, but then, as he has in the past, he found beingin front an unpleasant experience and seemingly waved his opponent past. Having been criticised for delaying his challenge too late aboard Harchibald in the controversial 2005 Champion Hurdle, Paul Carberry was again criticised - by some for going too soon and by others for going too late - but the horse he rides is exceptionally difficult to finesse and is now well past the age of changing. In conclusion, Harchibald has enough talent to win the Champion Hurdle, but surely only if he can win it without having to fight.

For what it's worth, I thought McCoy's ride on Straw Bear was the best of the season so far and that Carberry didn't do anything wrong.

In the end, I didn't back Punjabi but he has to go down as a disappointment. I thought that whatever happened, he would at least get into the race at some stage. He didn't.
 
Goober

Now Straw Bear is being used to show how good Harchibald is !
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Erm....I'm not sure where I spoke in complimentary terms about Straw Bear?

My point is that he's not much better than Al Eile
 
I reckon that's about right too. Maybe the only thing I'd argue is that I'm not convinced Harchibald has proved he's as good as he was before his injury, but he can't be far off it.

As for Al Eile, I mentioned him as a guide to the level of the form, not to crab it. As UG says, AE has his limitations. I reckon he ran to those limitations at Newcastle, which meant firstly that Harchibald didn't need to run to his best to win comfortably and secondly Katchit either failed to run to form or his previous form has been over-rated.

I've started punting Osana for the Champion Hurdle and have taken 8/1.
 
I would suggest that Al Eile has been campaigned well rather than having obvious limitations. He has been geared towards Aintree cleverly and missed Cheltenham last year. The one year where he gave it a tilt at the Champion he was respectably close.

Not good enough to win a Champion but better than some of those who are being talked about as contenders. If his trainer aimed him exclusively at the race he would be closer to first than last.
 
Originally posted by Bobbyjo@Dec 27 2007, 07:44 PM
I would suggest that Al Eile has been campaigned well rather than having obvious limitations. He has been geared towards Aintree cleverly and missed Cheltenham last year. The one year where he gave it a tilt at the Champion he was respectably close.

Not good enough to win a Champion but better than some of those who are being talked about as contenders. If his trainer aimed him exclusively at the race he would be closer to first than last.
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Yes, I agree.
 
No you didn't Bobbyjo, I didn't bring you in on the part about Straw Bear, just the bit about things never changing :xmassanta: I agree about Al Eile also.
 
Despite having won a juvenille hurdle at Cheltenham and running respectably in a Champion AlEile is considered better on a flat track like Aintree or Haydock.He might have his limitations but with 420K STG in prizemoney I think the owner will forgive him.
 
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