Cleeve Hurdle

I thought it was a fascinating race and leaves the World Hurdle in a fascinating position .

There are all manner of possible explanations for today's race. The ground was bottomless in the car parks let alone on course !

One perfectly respectable view is that he is still a good horse but has regressed somewhat bringing him down to the level of the others although he was of course giving both the winner and AFC weight and came out best at the weights .

Another is that he has been off for 14 months and giving weight in a bog it was a cracking run and he just got tired from the last and will improve his fitness and race sharpness no end by March and the likely better ground will suit him no end .

The other factor is the ride he was given - there is a difference between positive and overly aggressive on a returning 11 year old in a bog . I tend to the view that had Sam TD been happy to sit behind QDT and made his move later he would probably have just held on . Knockara Beau is a horse that stays all day - he was outpaced and then ran past exhausted horses . AFC still didn't jump brilliantly today but was much better than previously and he is a mudlark yet even so he was exhausted up the hill . I think that is as good as RDS is . Boston Bob was completely destroyed by the gruelling gallop but I never fancied him at all . Had Ruby thought he had any chance of beating Big Buck's he would have been in a helicopter from Donny .

Big Buck's did look much the most tired of the principals in the parade ring afterwards . The question is will he come on , stay the same or go backwards? I tend to the former and expect him to win in March .

Now what if Annie Power goes to the CH - Mullins won't have a realistic WH contender - could we see a jockey change ???
 
Agree with Ardross on just about everything in his post - I'm just concerned that BB ended up having too hard a race today. I have a feeling that if Ruby had been riding he would have ripped up the orders and eaten them halfway through the race ..
 
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Muttley said:
Agree with Ardross on just about everything in his post - I'm just concerned that BB ended up having too hard a race today. I have a feeling that if Ruby had been riding he would have ripped up the orders and eaten them halfway through the race ..
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Agree entirely .

I have just watched it again for the very first time on the TV . Big Buck's looked sure to win off the turn . I think he just got tired and am reinforced in my view that a slightly more conservative ride i.e moving him to the front after two out he would have won .

Sam TD said he rode him as if he was 150% fit and no doubt that was the idea but I agree with Muttley that Ruby would have taken a breather and probably got him home.
 
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Ardross said:
Agree entirely .

I have just watched it again for the very first time on the TV . Big Buck's looked sure to win off the turn . I think he just got tired and am reinforced in my view that a slightly more conservative ride i.e moving him to the front after two out he would have won .

Sam TD said he rode him as if he was 150% fit and no doubt that was the idea but I agree with Muttley that Ruby would have taken a breather and probably got him home.
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We agree on this one.
 
Ardross said:
I think he just got tired and am reinforced in my view that a slightly more conservative ride i.e moving him to the front after two out he would have won .
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I wonder if his ride on Double Ross was preying on his mind.

Had he kicked for home earlier on DR he'd almost certainly have won by a few lengths but he held on and ended up being done.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I wonder if his ride on Double Ross was preying on his mind.

Had he kicked for home earlier on DR he'd almost certainly have won by a few lengths but he held on and ended up being done.
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Yes I was surprised he held on to Double Ross for so long but not sure that Wishfull Thinking wouldn't have beaten him - the old boy was on a I can breathe OK day and is very good when that is the case.
 
He was ridden confidently and as though he was expected to win his race. I suspect STD rode him as he intends to in six weeks time and in my mind that's fair enough despite tiring to a narrow defeat. As Nicholls has already said he'll come on a ton for that and we can expect significant improvement.

My view is there's absolutely nothing to criticise and connections will be both relieved and delighted.
 
Ardross said:
Knockara Beau is a horse that stays all day - he was outpaced and then ran past exhausted horses.
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Knockara Beau is indeed a very strong stayer and when I listened to the race on the radio in the car, I quickly jumped to the conclusion he must have outstayed exhausted rivals in a gruelling contest. To me, that was the only scenario in which I could have imagined him winning.

However, the sectional times confirm the race wasn't gruelling at all. In fact, the pace they went was slower than optimal and, in the circumstances, Sam Twiston-Davies was probably right to be positive on Big Buck's.

Big Buck's either needed the run, has regressed or a combination of the two. The jockey was not to blame.

If anyone cares, Big Buck's ran the final 2f in about 33.38s. Earlier on the card, Indian Castle took 35.94s (albeit with an extra jump to negotiate), in winning a race that did become a stamina test (although not an extreme one).
 
There had been a significant storm in the meantime Relkeel chucking down quite a lot of rain in a short time .
 
chroniclandlord said:
Nice to see an improvement from At Fishers Cross today. Hopefully they have got him over whatever problems he's had earlier in the season.
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Curtis has had a low level virus in her stable hence only 4 winners since December the horses are coming out of it now so improvement can be expected I wasn't that impressed with the ride he was given with proven course and distance form there was no need especially in that ground to sit so far back.

with 2 rivals laying to far out their ground another rival restrained from his normal front running the race looked like it was being set up for a bb victory

bb may improve a bit for the race although if the ground dries out that may cause am additional problem given he injured as tendon

for the world hurdle I would look no further than annie power, rule the world or more than that
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Two 11 year olds finished 1st and 3rd on Saturday. All horses gain stamina with age. In the last 40 running’s of both the Champion and the World hurdles there have been three times as many 9 year olds (6-2) and twice as many 8 year olds (10-5) and no 5 year olds win the world hurdle, so it is plain to see that older horses are advantaged in staying races, but where the ceiling lies nobody knows and every horse is different.
Every horse has its own optimum distance a distance that can differ again and again according to the ground conditions and course characteristics, with faster or slower run races. The collateral form is very easily misinterpreted and just as easily misapplied to future races. So too are Racing post, Timeform and BHB ratings, especially when they are used in a very basic manner to mathematically work out how to find a future race result. None of the aspects in them have taken into account the optimums; the distances, conditions and pace of the races, moreover, how the elements that go into making up those ratings should effect a change in them that otherwise hasn’t been applied. Example being, how much value do we attribute to a length or a Lb over 2 or 3 miles under slow or fast conditions.
Knockara Beau’s best performances have come in conditions of severe attrition, conditions he hasn’t been penalised for with regard to future events of a similar ilk. On the contrary, Big Bucks’s worst performances have occurred in precisely those conditions, even though he won but taken from purely a measuring perspective.
On all known form Knockara Beau needed to find upward of 10 lb or more to be in with a chance of winning on Saturday and I stipulate....all known, because if that known form simply hadn’t been calculated properly and the prevailing conditions meant that he was actually better than his official mark, then it could feasibly be possible to assume that he didn’t need to find anything, especially if we have more than one reason to believe Big Bucks was going to underperform.
I think a matrix occurred here involving all aspects, that ultimately had the effect of creating a level playing field, and If you delve back into the form you can find a way of explaining the result and put a rating to it. Firstly we know Big Bucks would have to show regression or lack of full fitness etc to lose, and on all known form that rating actually wasn’t that much if measured against the best of the form shown by his opposition and I have that being around 6Lb after taking in the weight he was conceding and subtracting it from his mark of 174.
We know the ground was perfect for At Fishers Cross and from what we saw he ran more akin to the form he showed last season, so no reason not to assume he didn’t run up to or near his best of 160+.
Reve De Sivola is rated 162, he too had his ground and was conceding 4 Lb to AFC, he appeared very much to be given an easy time and was beaten 8 lengths which thereabout confirms the rating.
Big Bucks was conceding 4Lb to AFC and was beaten a length, he was levels with RDS and beat him 8 lengths once again thereabout confirming the ratings.
I can get Knockara Beau’s rating to in and around 160+, or that needed to explain his winning and do justice to Big Bucks by adding 6Lb to his best official figure recorded, or to one shown otherwise by performance but not given by the handicapper. To do this I have added 6Lb for the Matrix, for the one time it all came to together for him. Last year’s Cleeve hurdle was run under almost identical conditions but not circumstances, Last year Knockara Beau took off too fast, he led the field a dozen lengths clear but nothing went with him, he eventually tired finishing 10 lengths behind Reve de Sivola and Oscar whisky, who subsequently attributed that hard race as the reasons for their poor showings at Cheltenham. So Knockara Beau went too fast in a race that was probably run too fast by even the winner under the prevailing circumstances. In contrast this year Knockara Beau led them at a more even gallop but more importantly they went with him and in a race run nearly 6 seconds faster than last year he managed to get them to tire before his customary late rally saw him get back up to prevail.
I knew there was some value in Knockara Beau’s price before Saturday but never gave it a second thought because there was only six runners, what I am almost certain of in my own mind now though is; there is value to be had in Big Bucks’s price for the world hurdle, especially If we throw in 6Lb for fitness, 6Lb being the standard drop given to horses by the handicapper that have been off for a season, 6Lb he didn't receive because it wasn't a handicap.
 
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Good post . Well thought through and easy to follow. I have At Fishers Cross on 164 as my Master so I figure that Big Bucks ran to 168 on his return. My studies into the subject of expected improvement in fitness would add a further 8L to his performance in the World hurdle = 175
However I have his stable mate Celestial Halo on 178
 
edgt said:
Crimson Embers 1986 the sole winner since 1972.
Was that on a disqualification of stable mate ?
Or was there a Stewards Inquiry in 85 with himself and Rose Ravine in same ownership ?
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The enquiry was in the 1985 contest, I actually spoke to Stuart about why he never objected to Rose Ravine, he said it was a no brainer, the connections owned first and second and they would have just risked Rose Ravine being disqualified and placed last so they let it be.
 
That's a great post Paul. I agree with almost all of it, although it feels as though there's a small element of making the figures fit.

I've long worked on the basis that horses show more stamina as they mature. Also younger, less experienced horses are often more difficult to settle and burn uneccessary energy so they naturally need to go the half stride quicker in shorter races. When they're stepped up they don't get home because they've burnt uneccessary energy fighting their jockey. Sometimes a horse pulling for it's head is pronounced, but often it isn't so visible.

Similarly you can often blunt the speed of 2 milers by running them beyond their optimum.

There's great value to be found in the markets with both theories if you're prepared to be selective.

Anyway, with Digger around I'd better make the point that they're theories for discussion on a different thread! :D
 
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Here's a question - would Big Buck's have won had the race been on Friday on ground that was soft , good to soft in places ?

I reckon so - if the ground is good to soft at the Festival he is sure to appreciate it.
 
Maruco said:
That's a great post Paul. I agree with almost all of it, although it feels as though there's a small element of making the figures fit.

I've long worked on the basis that horses show more stamina as they mature. Also younger, less experienced horses are often more difficult to settle and burn uneccessary energy so they naturally need to go the half stride quicker in shorter races. When they're stepped up they don't get home because they've burnt uneccessary energy fighting their jockey. Sometimes a horse pulling for it's head is pronounced, but often it isn't so visible.

Similarly you can often blunt the speed of 2 milers by running them beyond their optimum.

There's great value to be found in the markets with both theories if you're prepared to be selective.

Anyway, with Digger around I'd better make the point that they're theories for discussion on a different thread! :D
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Good lad - yer learning. TBF anything is better that the utter shite the fishwives are pouring out on other threads. :D
 
I agree Dave, and you'd think by now they'd all have realised the result will be dictated by the pace of the race. :blink:
 
Maruco said:
I agree Dave, and you'd think by now they'd all have realised the result will be dictated by the pace of the race. :blink:
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The result will be dictated by the class of the horse and The Fly has more class than all of them. In the World Hurdle I'm of the firm belief that is it there for the taking. Big Bucks is regressing with age, and coming back from injury, and unless it comes up very soft Annie Power has more class than anything in the race. If Richie proves the more money than sense rule and Annie goes to the CH i'd be all over At Fishers Cross.
 
Digger said:
The result will be dictated by the class of the horse and The Fly has more class than all of them. In the World Hurdle I'm of the firm belief that is it there for the taking. Big Bucks is regressing with age, and coming back from injury, and unless it comes up very soft Annie Power has more class than anything in the race. If Richie proves the more money than sense rule and Annie goes to the CH i'd be all over At Fishers Cross.
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I think it is simply mad to take a firm view that he is regressing on the basis of his first run back in a bog giving weight to both the first and second .

Annie Power loves a bog . Good ground at Cheltenham and 3 miles is another matter .
 
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