Clockwatchers' Corner

I think recent results prove one thing: that hard races take it out of horses.

Leshlaa was well beaten after putting up a monster time on 1000G day. Mr Lupton was also beaten yesterday by a horse that should have had little chance of so doing.

I don't follow these things closely enough but maybe someone who does could keep us informed of when the fast-time horses tend to return to form?

I know the 'bounce' theory suggests 42 days. Could it be the same for fast horses. Did Nick Mordin have a theory about it? (I have his book somewhere up the loft.)

I do recall (30 years ago?) when Pipe and Scu were the big thing in NH races that some of their horses would put up huge time performances before losing at odds-on then coming out and verifying the original form, sometimes going on to improve again. At the time I wondered if they were just at it but maybe horses just need time to get over a big run and the bigger the run the more time they need?
 
Desert Orchid said:
I think recent results prove one thing: that hard races take it out of horses.

Leshlaa was well beaten after putting up a monster time on 1000G day. Mr Lupton was also beaten yesterday by a horse that should have had little chance of so doing.

I don't follow these things closely enough but maybe someone who does could keep us informed of when the fast-time horses tend to return to form?

I know the 'bounce' theory suggests 42 days. Could it be the same for fast horses. Did Nick Mordin have a theory about it? (I have his book somewhere up the loft.)

I do recall (30 years ago?) when Pipe and Scu were the big thing in NH races that some of their horses would put up huge time performances before losing at odds-on then coming out and verifying the original form, sometimes going on to improve again. At the time I wondered if they were just at it but maybe horses just need time to get over a big run and the bigger the run the more time they need?
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There are always the conspiracy theorists (I'm sure we've all cried foul at one time or another) but to look at it in the way you are doing just could be the way forward. The 42 day between runs makes a lot of sense.
 
Mordin also suggested, if memory serves, that horses can run [badly] during those 42 days and still return to form after that.

He also suggested, I think, that a big improver might be able to build on a hard race within the time scale.
 
I’ve crunched some numbers from the Chester meeting to see how they stack up and if any well-handicapped three-year-olds can be identified.

Wednesday
The times point to pretty fast ground. Two races appeal as possible indicators of the going and give the other times on the day a lot of sense. The two races are those won by El Astronaute and Russian Soul. I think the latter might have been unusually well handicapped for its class and given its age [nine] but it was arguably let in lightly relative to its all-weather rating.

The upshot is that one race stands out a mile as being faster than expectations and will hopefully throw up at least two good handicap winners. Here And Now (Becket) and Stradivarius (Gosden) had their field well strung out and their respective 7lbs and 4lbs rises arguably still leave them dangerously well in.

The Lily Agnes form looks okay based on times with the winner posting a raw unadjusted figure of 75.


Thursday
After allowing for rails movement, the going difference into day two was negligible but the form across the card sets a poser. Was there only one true race or was that race very fast? The race in question is the Vase. If the time matches the official ratings, every other race was between slow and very slow, except maybe the 2yo race, the winner of which is only 3lbs off the Lily Agnes winner. I’m reluctant to let unknown quantities dictate my figures but I have to allow for the possibility that the Vase was a better race than it looked. Before allowing for WFA, it was 17lbs faster than the Huxley Stakes won by Deauville.

Friday
A similar scenario emerged on day three of the meeting with only the Conditions sprint race won by Judicial posting a good time. The worrying implication is that the Dee Stakes might not have been much of a trial for the Derby based on its time. Even the new OR of the fourth, Mirage Dancer (raised 11lbs to 98 for this), suggests the winner is only around the 105p mark. Other than that, the form across the card is largely forgettable.

I hope to do York soon and post my findings but it might be next week before I get round to it.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I think recent results prove one thing: that hard races take it out of horses.

Leshlaa was well beaten after putting up a monster time on 1000G day. Mr Lupton was also beaten yesterday by a horse that should have had little chance of so doing.

I don't follow these things closely enough but maybe someone who does could keep us informed of when the fast-time horses tend to return to form?

I know the 'bounce' theory suggests 42 days. Could it be the same for fast horses. Did Nick Mordin have a theory about it? (I have his book somewhere up the loft.)

I do recall (30 years ago?) when Pipe and Scu were the big thing in NH races that some of their horses would put up huge time performances before losing at odds-on then coming out and verifying the original form, sometimes going on to improve again. At the time I wondered if they were just at it but maybe horses just need time to get over a big run and the bigger the run the more time they need?
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I know Suny Bay certainly agrees with this. He's pointed out several times horses that are well ahead on the clock and urged caution because they will bounce. I seem to think every time he's made the point on here he's been right.
 
Curiously enough, Sunybay and I rarely discuss times! All these years and I didn't know that!

Anyway, I managed to trawl through York late last night (couldn't go to bed after watching the programme about the Lisbon Lions - still high as a kite!) and there were one or two results worth mentioning. I'll do so later. It's a glorious day outside and I've a lot of work in the garden to catch up on!
 
I'd want to study the race before diving in, though. There could be something in there I haven't looked at yet (ie from a smaller midweek meeting).
 
With my RP sub having expired (and I instructed them not to renew it) I'm grateful for the link to the ATR tracker.
 
Look out for James Garfield ( George Scott trained ). Ran third in the 2.20 at Leicester today at an unfancied 14/1. Gave them a good 5 or 6 lengths leading the stalls yet pulled his way up to dispute for the lead inside the furlong marker before just fading to be beaten around 1 length. Well worth watching out for.
 
I think we may have seen a very special horse in Harry Angel at Haydock.

The 5f race won by Priceless looked to be run largely in line with the form figures and the going allowance ties up well with the good 3yo handicap won by the Johnston horse. However, despite being just a 3yo, Harry Angel has run no less than 26lbs faster.

It would be dangerous to take that at face vale as it would mean the placed horses behind Harry Angel would also be faster than Priceless – they may well be but I think it would be dangerous to assume so at this stage – but Harry won in sensationally impressive fashion and if he’s got more to come he will be very hard to beat, certainly against his own age group.

I don’t have a time figure for Caravaggio’s reappearance run but he too was sensational at Ascot last season. These two look miles ahead of anything else on the 3yo sprinting scene.
 
wilsonl said:
Emenem entered in the opening race on Derby day.
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I'll take DO's figures on trust, as I can see little support from other clockers.
From a form perspective, I'd suggest he'll need a strong pace - even at this trip - and it's not easy to see where it'll come from. Hopefully the Johnston horse will be on a going day.
Good luck to all.
 
To be honest I was tempted to leave the race alone but ended up going in the opposite direction and spread a double-strength bet on this morning. I'm kicking myself a bit, though, as I could easily have got 8/1 last night.

Although the horses that finished in the first half-dozen or so have been well beaten next time, those further back have been coming out and running very well indeed. It may be that the close-up beaten horses need a bit of time to come back to themselves. We'll see. After Brorocco yesterday I need a change of luck.
 
BennyB said:
Jesus how unlucky was Emenem there?
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Don't know about that, but he could have seriously injured two others and their horses. Norton's paid the price though and misses first four days of Royal Ascot as part of his suspension.

The Stewards found Norton in breach of Rule (B)54.1 and guilty of careless riding in that he had switched left-handed, causing significant interference to HAJAJ (IRE), which was taken off its intended line and had to be checked by Powell, and in turn caused MISTER BLUE SKY (IRE), to have to be checked. They suspended him for 7 days as follows: Saturday 17, Sunday 18, Monday 19, Tuesday 20, Wednesday 21, Thursday 22 and Friday 23 June 2017.
 
ty for this guys and desert orchid a great read and lots of horses to come luck will change soon i am sure
 
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