Clockwatchers' Corner

I won't get a close look at the times until midweek but I've played about with some figures.

There's a chance the Derby a stronger race than I've been giving it credit for but it would rely upon other times on the day being reliable and one or two of the races being true-run.

Best case scenario: Wings Of Eagles could be a 125 horse, which would be reassuring for a Derby.

Worst case scenario: It's maybe 118 (on a par with Oath)

The chances are that it's somewhere in between.

I suspect there's been a pace collapse in the Dash, exaggerating Dark Shot's finishing effort.
 
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I've played around a bit more with the figures for the Derby meeting.

It's now quite clear that the Derby ended up a better race either than I'd anticipated or than I'd immediately thought post-race.

It's impossible to get a definite handle on the form but I'm looking at 123 for Wings Of Eagles based on a balance of form and times, the times not being entirely reliable on their own as the fastest races were the 3yo ones, which never has me in a comfort zone.

Still, 123 is perfectly respectable and there has to be a chance that the winner will go on from here given the fast time and the fact that it was clearly not a fluke win. I just wonder if Pour Moi will be the type to impart finishing strength into his progeny.

Laugh Aloud has run 8lbs faster than Sovereign Debt despite winning much more comfortably in what appears to have been a very true-run race.

The time for the Dash doesn't live up to the form, hence my contention that they went too fast and the pace collapsed. Nevertheless, Dark Shot posted an improved rating and a 2lbs rise might not be insuperable going forward.

If there is one to take forward from the meeting, it is perhaps Juanito Chico, winner of the closing 7f handicap for 3yos on the Friday. The winner of the previous race over C&D, a Listed race, went up to 108, yet Juanito Chico was only 3lbs slower. That is not to say that I believe the latter is a 105 horse - yet - but I do believe his new mark of 87 under-rates him enough for him to follow up at some stage. He goes into the tracker.

Oaks winner Enable also looks fast but I think everybody saw that and she won't be under the radar next time with her new rating of 122. Despite being a year younger and entitled to 15lbs wfa should they meet at this time of year, she was only 6lbs slower than Highland Reel's Coronation Cup.

Enable's 122 puts her 3lbs ahead of Wings Of Eagles's new rating of 119 and she'd get the gender allowance on top of that.

It also looks like the Woodcote winner, De Bruyne Horse, has posted a mark into the 90s, which is smart for the time of year but it isn't unusual for something to post 100+ at Royal Ascot regardless of they may have done beforehand.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
I've played around a bit more with the figures for the Derby meeting.

It's now quite clear that the Derby ended up a better race either than I'd anticipated or than I'd immediately thought post-race.

It's impossible to get a definite handle on the form but I'm looking at 123 for Wings Of Eagles based on a balance of form and times, the times not being entirely reliable on their own as the fastest races were the 3yo ones, which never has me in a comfort zone.



Still, 123 is perfectly respectable and there has to be a chance that the winner will go on from here given the fast time and the fact that it was clearly not a fluke win. I just wonder if Pour Moi will be the type to impart finishing strength into his progeny.
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I'd take the view that it was something of a fluke result owing to the uneven pace, and the winner would be unlikely to confirm the form, with the 2nd or 3rd, in all but an all-out cavalry charge over a similar distance.
As the Vase indicated, WofE is a stayer, pure and simple.
 
WOE was certainly the most stamina-laden runner in the race on SteveM's dosage figures and it was a true-run race overall.

Simon Rowlands says in his Timeform Sectional Debrief:

But it would be wrong to imagine that Wings of Eagles was greatly flattered.

Those who think that prominent-racers need to be marked up greatly in this year’s Derby should presumably be rating Douglas MacArthur – clear 3f out and beaten less than 5 lengths – as the best horse in it. Tried and trusted sectional upgrading methodology has him just behind fourth-placed Eminent, and it has Wings of Eagles a deserving winner. That makes more intuitive sense.

One thing we also know is that there was not a massive pace collapse in the final furlong, as some have suggested. Wings of Eagles ran it in about 11.65s – which is fast – Cliffs of Moher and Cracksman in about 12.2s
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My own view was that although the pace was strong early the two tearaways got breathers through the middle third. I can accept that the term 'uneven pace' could apply to them but not the rest of the field.

At this stage I'd be prepared to suggest that WOE is very much the one to beat in the St Leger and he strikes me as a potential Yeats as far as the Gold Cup is concerned.

By the way, that 11.65s for the final furlong is fast right enough considering Enable ran it in 12.2s. The standard time for a lot of the 5f courses in the country is 60s or more and the winner of the Dash averaged 10.98s per furlong.


 
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That 11.65 final furlong is clear indication that the pace slowed somewhere in an earlier 'section'. The pace picked up again when Venice Beach moved into a 'strategic position' turning in, and most of the field ran strong times from that point (see SR's addendum at the bottom of his figures).
Agree the winner is likely a thorough stayer and believe he'll be pushed to live up to your, or SR's, rating in any less of a test than Saturday's turned out to be.
 
As an aside, does anyone know anything of the Irish sectionals, thst were supposed to begin on Jan 1 this year?
 
Desert Orchid said:
If there is one to take forward from the meeting, it is perhaps Juanito Chico, winner of the closing 7f handicap for 3yos on the Friday. The winner of the previous race over C&D, a Listed race, went up to 108, yet Juanito Chico was only 3lbs slower. That is not to say that I believe the latter is a 105 horse - yet - but I do believe his new mark of 87 under-rates him enough for him to follow up at some stage. He goes into the tracker.
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Declared at NWM tomorrow - just got the alert through. Only 4/1 though and I won't have time to check the whole race so I might leave it.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Declared at NWM tomorrow - just got the alert through. Only 4/1 though and I won't have time to check the whole race so I might leave it.
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Can't see anything lurking that's likely to run better & have taken the 7/2.
Good luck to this ship, and all who sail in her.
 
I watched the replay of his last run this morning. It was quite a taking performance but so was that of the overnight fav Omran at Newcastle.

I also worry about there being only 7 days between his runs, as mentioned earlier in the thread.

We'll see.
 
I'm getting mixed messages regarding the times at Newmarket last Saturday.

Using my normal calcs, I'm getting the staying handicap won by Jaameh working out as by far the fastest [relatively speaking] race on the card.

Using the published RP standards, I'm getting the race won by Culturati as the fastest but not by as much.

Anyone else got any similar observations?

The form book says Juanito Chico "got going too late". It also says it did best of those who were drawn low. I suspect these factors combined with the short gap in time since its last run resulted in a below-par performance but I don't think he'd have got near the winner on the day even if he'd run as well as I'd expected. The winner, Parfait, was another Godolphin 'special' and has been raised 15lbs for his impressive win.

Clouds and silver linings: Juanito Chico will hopefully go off longer than he should next time.

Incidentally, if I'm right, Jaameh (and runner-up Byron Flyer) remain well handicapped after their 5lbs and 3lbs rises.
 
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My view;
Like many 'big figure' horses Juanito Chico probably needs a strong pace to haul the field along. The winner was allowed an easy lead, and none of those behind registered a worthwhile t/s figure, which tellls its own story.
Imho, JC will justify your original appraisal sometime soon, but off a stronger pace, or up a furlong on distamce.
 
Ekhtiyaar (3.30Y) ran a t/s figure of 93 @ Newmarker latest, and is a confident bet on today's more suitable ground.
 
I hadn't done that meeting so checked it out. It is certainly the fastest race on the card but I'm not convinced it's entirely reliable.

As I said elsewhere, it often takes time to get over a big run and the first three were close up and miles clear. The runner-up has since been hammered but that's excusable for that reason. However, the well-beaten hroses have been beaten just as far in lesser races.

Good luck, reet. I'm happy to let it go at a shortish price.

In the same race, Wahash represents the Juanito Chico race and I've put a saver on him but the main bet is Golden Apollo. I haven't checked his performance against the clock but he was a very impressive wide-margin winner the other day and his penalty (6lbs for a very easy five-length margin) looks close to negligible.
 
Black Trilby was the other involved in Juanito Chico's race. He was in front a stride after the line at Sandown a minute ago so hopes for that form are enhanced to a degree.
 
Desert Orchid said:
... but the main bet is Golden Apollo. I haven't checked his performance against the clock but he was a very impressive wide-margin winner the other day and his penalty (6lbs for a very easy five-length margin) looks close to negligible.
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A winner at last!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
 
Thanks all.

I'm usually happy just to put a line through a really bad run. There's usually a reason for it.

Yesterday was a pretty good illustration of how times can mislead. We had Black Trilby run well but Wahash and Ekhtiyaar run badly. I wish I knew why it happens.

About 20 years ago I had an article published in the Handicap Book/ Update explaining how I'm much happier relying on form rather than time. It was based on painful betting experience but every now and again a really good time performance will just strike you as very solid.

To be honest, I haven't really come across such a performance this season apart from - maybe - Winter in the 1000 Guineas.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
I'm getting mixed messages regarding the times at Newmarket last Saturday.

Using my normal calcs, I'm getting the staying handicap won by Jaameh working out as by far the fastest [relatively speaking] race on the card.

Using the published RP standards, I'm getting the race won by Culturati as the fastest but not by as much.

Anyone else got any similar observations?

The form book says Juanito Chico "got going too late". It also says it did best of those who were drawn low. I suspect these factors combined with the short gap in time since its last run resulted in a below-par performance but I don't think he'd have got near the winner on the day even if he'd run as well as I'd expected. The winner, Parfait, was another Godolphin 'special' and has been raised 15lbs for his impressive win.

Clouds and silver linings: Juanito Chico will hopefully go off longer than he should next time.

Incidentally, if I'm right, Jaameh (and runner-up Byron Flyer) remain well handicapped after their 5lbs and 3lbs rises.
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I've got Jaameh running a monster speed figure too. It'll be interesting to see if he takes up his entry in the Plate this weekend.
 
As mentioned on the Plate thread, I'm on Natural Scenery but have saved on Jaameh for the above reasons.

I also got tracker alerts for Wahash (Chester 2.55) and Emenem (York 3.05). I won't be 'doing' those races but stuck them on an ew double. Pure laziness but also sickness insurance!
 
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