Coral Eclipse Stakes

You couldn't really ask for anything more in a race, could you?

To say Rip Van Winkle shied away from the whip or shirked the issue is well wide of the mark; Fortune gave him two slaps and he quickened noticeably, only to cock his head (for whatever reason) about half a furlong or so out, after which point he was never getting to the winner. His head carriage certainly is rather awkward, but equally Sea The Stars is an idle type and Kinane said afterwards he picked up again when Rip Van Winkle came at him.
 
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Interesting that there's no Racing Post Rating up for the race yet.

Based on the poundage of 1.75 lbs per length that they use, and the best RPRs achieved by each horse prior to today's race, the race works out as follows:

Code: 
[b]Horse			Beaten	Cumulative	Pounds	Best RPR Projection[/b]
Sea The Stars		0.00	0.00		0	124		[COLOR="Blue"]124[/COLOR]
Rip Van Winkle		1.00	1.00		2	120		[COLOR="blue"]122[/COLOR]
Conduit			4.50	5.50		10	127		[COLOR="Red"]137[/COLOR]
Cima De Triomphe	5.00	10.50		18	119		[COLOR="red"]137[/COLOR]
Steele Tango		3.75	14.25		25	113		[COLOR="red"]138[/COLOR]
Jukebox Jury		0.50	14.75		26	114		[COLOR="red"]140[/COLOR]
Twice Over		2.50	17.25		30	122		152
Malibu Bay		11.00	28.25		49	99		148
Lang Shining		6.00	34.25		60	110		170
Set Sail		1.50	35.75		63	108		171

This is pretty similar to Desert Orchid's figures, I think, and presents the RPR guys with a fairly straightforward question:

a) Do you rate the form through the first two and essentially declare that nothing else has run it's race, keeping the rating down to the mid/low 120s?

b) Do you rate the form through the third, fourth, fifth and sixth horses, all of whose running suggests that the winner deserve a mark in a fairly narrow range between 137-140 (probably on the low end, as the first three of those are 137, 137, 138)? (Those numbers sound familiar, DO?).

c) Do you find another way; the most obvious being to use the time as a guide and rate the race close to the Topspeed rating (which they've provisionally set at 129 - so they'd probably give the winner that plus a couple of pounds).

It's a pretty interesting handicapping question.

As David Johnson mentioned earlier in the thread, it's got similarities to the King George last year. But whereas with that race we already knew plenty about Papal Bull to make the idea of him as a 130 horse troubling, it may be easier to live with the idea of the much more unexposed Rip Van Winkle (first time over this trip) as a mid-130s horse until he proves us otherwise.

Personally, I think the RP will go with option (c).
 
I've just woken up. I had a dream that RVW was running in a 10f race without Sea The Stars. It was a handicap and he was running off 136. I was a layer. I can't remember what I called my yacht.
 
betsmate said:
I've just woken up. I had a dream that RVW was running in a 10f race without Sea The Stars. It was a handicap and he was running off 136. I was a layer. I can't remember what I called my yacht.
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That sounds you think like me he is in dog terms "a dodge", that's not to say he will not win just that he makes hard work of it, in the ch4 comentry RVW was called in front of STS, but he never headed him IMO. watch the re-run.:cool:
 
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Rip was never called in front of STS on the C4 commentary.

Gareth, you're probably right. They'll probably go with option c) and add a sentence in the comment section to the effect that the form may well rate higher.

(But I know I'm right ;):cool::whistle:)
 
You guys can take whatever view you like about the horse with ratings etc but I work with horses every day, all day and I've also been in racing as long as most of you on here and SEA THE STARS has that exta indefinable something that does permit him to idle in front and then go again when required. I stand by my statement that this horse does just enough and he is a clever horse because of that. He may not be infallible - in fact, probably isn't because of the reluctance by his owners to run him on soft ground but he one rare gem of a horse because he is probably outperforming even his illustrious pedigree and that is something we will see only once or twice in a lifetime.

One of you there mentioned 'arrogance' in the pre parade ring - an essential quality in an outstanding rachorse in my opinion and to me that translates into superiority over the other colts both on and off the track. He knows he's better and he can convey that to horses racing with him not only physically but mentally too.

And that isn't a romantic view of horses - it's something you'll see everyday when you work with them - some horse just dominate from the word go - without any aggression either.

A truly wonderful horse, trained by a really good bloke and owned by people who genuinely appear to adore their horse - fantastic!
 
I think the only horse that plainly ran below form was Twice Over , who was given a pretty lousy ride .
 
It occurred to me a few minutes ago that Hawk Wing's Lockinge was rated up in the stratosphere by my good self on literal lines with the well-beaten horses. I then wondered if, since HW didn't really hit that kind of level again, he'd been over-rated at Newbury and if, in the same way, I was guilty of over-rating STS and RVW yesterday.

The big difference is probably that HW ended up with a slow overall time. I think he went too fast in the first half mile (he made all, remember) and the others killed themselves trying to keep up against a vastly superior rival who slowed down less in the second half than the others.

The fact that STS (and RVW) ran such a fast time yesterday leads me to beliee the form is totally solid.

Songsheet, I don't disagree that STS had more in the tank. I just think it doesn't make sense for people to use expressions like 'toying' with the runner-up when he was whipped five times in the closing stages. I could never back Rip to beat STS again at any distance.
 
Wouldn't it be great if STS stayed in training as a 4yo and did a Brigadier Gerard in all the big 8f-10f G1s, taking in the King George on the way?
 
Very interesting stuff Songsheet. I sometimes wonder whether its my imagination coupled with the knowledge of the horse, but it was noticable in pr parade...and especially so in the winners enclosure where he seemed to lap up the attention. He loved it....
 
i think the toyed stuff comes from the fact that he let RVW near him..then just ran from him..that sort of toying rather than winning on the bridle kind of toying

basically its suggesting that STS just does enough only when he wants to..he got whipped but only picked up when he was aware of RVW being there..rather than responding to the whip
 
Amusing from Oxx in the Times

“The race didn’t quite go according to plan,” admitted Oxx. “He was in front too early, but I did like the way he stretched away when he was tackled. You know, he could jump out and run in a sprint. I’m sounding a bit like Aidan O’Brien now, but it’s the reality.”
 
Sea The Stars is such a fantastic looking animal and it was an honour to be there yesterday. Whilst he was impressive I won't get carried away and suggest the horse had read the formbook on the way to the races or other such anthropomorphism mind...

But he looks to be the best middle distance turf horse in the world right now, and his European challengers must improve to beat him.

On a side note, how many people thought we'd be seeing a decent crop of 3yos this year after the Dewhurst?!
 
Ardross said:
Amusing from Oxx in the Times

“The race didn’t quite go according to plan,” admitted Oxx. “He was in front too early, but I did like the way he stretched away when he was tackled. You know, he could jump out and run in a sprint. I’m sounding a bit like Aidan O’Brien now, but it’s the reality.”
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And in the Observer:

"Suggestions from...Murtagh that Fame And Glory might have finished closer to Sea The Stars in the Derby had the early pace been quicker at Epsom did not seem to go down favourably with...Oxx [who] declared: 'We would have preferred a faster pace ourselves (at Epsom). There's a lot of Coolmore spin going around - they're trying to alter the picture as best they can. That's just their style and we all know about that! The result is there."
 
gus said:
And in the Observer:

"Suggestions from...Murtagh that Fame And Glory might have finished closer to Sea The Stars in the Derby had the early pace been quicker at Epsom did not seem to go down favourably with...Oxx [who] declared: 'We would have preferred a faster pace ourselves (at Epsom). There's a lot of Coolmore spin going around - they're trying to alter the picture as best they can. That's just their style and we all know about that! The result is there."
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Well said !
 
I've seen plenty of people on here and other forums bang on about the pace in the Derby who I normally wouldn't associate with being Coolmore advocates.
 
I will be the first to remind plenty on here next time anyone dares question the merit of the form of a slowly run race in Ireland, France or GB.
 
Galileo said:
I will be the first to remind plenty on here next time anyone dares question the merit of the form of a slowly run race in Ireland, France or GB.
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The Derby was not slowly run . It might not have been a very fast run race but it wasn't slow.
 
Looking now like the 2 year old bunch from last year are turning into a good group of 3 year old's much against popular opinion early on in the year. The guineas, stating the obvious is looking a better race than was thought at the time as each week goes by.
 
From the RP:

Sea The Stars rated the world's best by RPR

BY LEE MOTTERSHEAD
6.45PM 5 JUL 2009

HE IS the 2,000 Guineas winner, the Derby winner, the Coral-Eclipse winner and now Sea The Stars can be called the best racehorse in the world after Racing Post handicapper Paul Curtis sent Saturday's Sandown superstar to the top of the sport's rankings.

In defeating Rip Van Winkle for a third time, the John Oxx-trained colossus attained a Racing Post Rating of 131, the best achieved in the Group 1 contest since 1989 champion Nashwan, whose 2,000 Guineas-Derby-Eclipse hat-trick Sea The Stars emulated in memorable fashion on Saturday.

His 131 mark - 2lb more than those boasted by Rip Van Winkle and the previous world best Gladiatorus - is now set to be tested in the Juddmonte International, which was on Sunday nominated by Oxx in preference to the Betfair-sponsored King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes as the likely next target for the son of Cape Cross and Arc heroine Urban Sea.

Curtis, who had given Sea The Stars a mark of 124 at Newmarket and Epsom, said: "I can't honestly see how any handicapper could have him as anything other than the best horse in the world.

"Saturday's performance was fantastic and it was an outstanding piece of form. It is rare to get a result that can in no way be quibbled, but this was a solid, strong run, the time was good and the field was strung out."

Announcing the latest thoughts on future plans, Oxx said: "We intend aiming him at the Irish Champion Stakes on September 5 and he will probably have just one race before then.

"We will see how he is in a few days time, but the initial feeling is that the Juddmonte International, rather than the King George, might be his next race. York gives us that bit more time whereas the King George is less than three weeks away."
 
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