Coral Gold Cup (Hennessey)

Desert Orchid said:
Looking through the card today ahead of tomorrow's 5-day dec stage, I don't see any penalty attached to Le Milos, which won 11 days ago, yet there is one noted next to Larry which won the other day.

Is this just the RP site not updating or is there a legit reason why LM would escape a penalty? It wasn't a conditionals' race, which is the only circumstance I know for avoiding a penalty other than taking a horse's weight beyond 12st, which wouldn't apply here anyway.

If the horse does avoid a penalty, for whatever reason, then it has to go down as a brilliant bit of placing by Skelton, with the horse going up 8lbs in future.

I would urge caution, though. I do suspect it's just a matter of the RP data not being up to date. But still, 4lbs well in isn't a negative.
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FUTURE OR Le Milos (+8), Lord Accord (+3), Remastered (+1), Red Happy (-1), Potterman (-2), Lieutenant Rocco (-2), Grumpy Charley (-3), Larry (-4)...

The adjustments to their handicaps have been altered, but not to the weights of the race...

I would imagine they will be added or taken away this week once declared!
 
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I don't think so, Maxbet. They can't alter the handicap, other than via penalties for winning, after publication of the weights.
 
Looking at the BHA site, Larry is shown as 9-10 in the handicap and Le Milos 10-6 although the final weights will not be determined until declaration time. The race conditions say a 4lb penalty for a chase win after 30th October.

My guess is that the RP card is in error. Today is the confirmation day so it may come out in the wash of the 5 day entries.
 
wilsonl said:
I’ve just taken 33/1 Remastered with 365. 4lb lower than when coming down 4 out last year as he was about to take it up.

Hard to say how he’d have finished it off as it’s a long way home from there but 33/1 is too big.
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Looks like a good bet now Wilsonl. Had a 3lb claimer on last year.
 
Outsider said:
Looks like a good bet now Wilsonl. Had a 3lb claimer on last year.
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Yeah I'm sure everyone on here is wishing Wilson well on this good bit of value he has.

I can't see much of an angle on the race in terms of 'value' now. The top two, Remastered and Corach Rambler, have the best form claims and horses like Our Power and Le Milos are rightly next in the market.

I'd like to see Remastered win as I have him in a few TTF lines so that would give me something to celebrate or even Corach Rambler who looked a good winner of the handiap chase at Cheltenham to me. You'd think if he gets round okay he has an excellent each way chance
 
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My early bet on Velvet Elvis has gone down the pan with its withdrawal so it's back to the drawing board.

I've now taken 25/1 Lostintranslation.

He's ten now with no shortage of miles on the clock so the risks are obvious. On the other hand, the last time he was rated 150 was when running second to Defi Du Seuil in the 2019 JLT before going up to 161 for winning the Mildmay.

In his second season over fences he went up to 173 for beating Bristol De Mai in the Betfair Chase and was only 15/8 for the King George before running a close third to Al Boum Photo in the Gold Cup. His only glimmer of form since then was first time up last season in the Pharma at Ascot and kept his then rating of 160.

He's back down to 150 and Gingell will take another seven off. He's only disappointed once on his seasonal debut and first time up might be the time to catch him.
 
I can see Fiddlerontheroof running from top-weight here on Saturday.

My eye keeps being drawn towards Our Power.
 
Desert Orchid said:
My early bet on Velvet Elvis has gone down the pan with its withdrawal so it's back to the drawing board.

I've now taken 25/1 Lostintranslation.

He's ten now with no shortage of miles on the clock so the risks are obvious. On the other hand, the last time he was rated 150 was when running second to Defi Du Seuil in the 2019 JLT before going up to 161 for winning the Mildmay.

In his second season over fences he went up to 173 for beating Bristol De Mai in the Betfair Chase and was only 15/8 for the King George before running a close third to Al Boum Photo in the Gold Cup. His only glimmer of form since then was first time up last season in the Pharma at Ascot and kept his then rating of 160.

He's back down to 150 and Gingell will take another seven off. He's only disappointed once on his seasonal debut and first time up might be the time to catch him.
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I have to agree,yes,risky but at the price it's worth a go.
 
Grasshopper said:
I can see Fiddlerontheroof running from top-weight here on Saturday.

My eye keeps being drawn towards Our Power.
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Will he stay? Thought his stamina ran out in the Ultima.

The more I look at the race the less I see anything that worries me re Corach Rambler.
 
Grasshopper said:
I can see Fiddlerontheroof running from top-weight here on Saturday.

My eye keeps being drawn towards Our Power.
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My eye keeps being drawn towards current top-weight Fanion D'Estruval and it's the complexity of it that attracts me.

It has never raced beyond 2m5f before so why even enter it for this race?

It can be an iffy jumper so why take in one of the most hotly contested jumping tests of the season?

It's no longer a second-season novice but it's stil only seven years old so can it improve again? If my figures are correct it might not have to.

And it's 25/1, which is as attractive to me as the thought of Grace Kelly in her prime, covered in dark chocolate.

But, I need to wait until the final decs are known because they might just do as you imply and pave the way for another top weight.
 
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This was exactly why I was trying to work out what Venetia was up to on another thread.

Thought the Friday two-and-a-half miler was the most likely, but Fanion has been pulled from that this morning.

I'm pretty confident they think Fanion can handle the extra distance, maybe they are waiting for the ground conditions to become clearer.....I'd guess they wouldn't want to go three and a quarter if it went heavy at Newbury, so would reroute to the Rehearsal. But that's all second-guessing.

If Fanion goes to Newbury, it may be a close call with Chambard. Instinct says they'll keep them separate.

If the Rehearsal is the one - and L'Homme doesn't go - then the current 14's looks a potential steal with only Happygolucky to worry about.
 
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Fanion's also holds the Rehearsal Chase entry, DO.

Apologies: didn't notice the edit re Rehearsal Chase.
 
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The problem...when the game of musical chairs ends....is that if L'Homme gets pulled from the Rehearsal, and Fanion does go there, the 14s B3 will have disappeared (and they're not going NRNB that I can see, Fanion is already well shorter with the others).

But can they pass up on a double chance to take the Hennessey!? What a conundrum!
 
barjon said:
I think Henderson has a good hand to play, but which card he’ll put on the table is anyone’s guess.
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Two left now.

Chantry House - Henderson never stops going on about how much he has grown and is now a “ a great, imposing individual. and what terrific order he is in “ He belongs at the top and is in tremendous order – I can't stress that enough.”

Diablo De Rouget - can’t see anything to say about this one, perhaps just still there in case it comes up bottomless which seems his only chance.
 
barjon said:
Two left now.

Chantry House - Henderson never stops going on about how much he has grown and is now a “ a great, imposing individual. and what terrific order he is in “ He belongs at the top and is in tremendous order – I can't stress that enough.”

Diablo De Rouget - can’t see anything to say about this one, perhaps just still there in case it comes up bottomless which seems his only chance.
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Chantry House won't be running. Rehearsal an outside possibility but most likely the Many Clouds (from the man himself somewhere on the web today).
 
“It is very possible he will wait for the Many clouds at Aintree next weekend.” said Henderson.


“The only reason I say that is, and we’ve always said it, is that he is a happier horse in a small field and something like the Coral Gold Cup, we’re just thinking that maybe that isn’t the right race for him with top-weight.


“Newcastle we might just see what comes up in there, it’s looking like being a nice race. We’ll just see what’s in there, but otherwise for a small field which is what he likes, the Many Clouds at Aintree next weekend would be a sort of sensible option.”
 
Fanion goes Hennessey

L'Homme Rehearsal

Chambard out

Makes sense, to a point. It was a ground game.

Chambard needed it soft, and it won't be.

I'm not convinced Fanion will be happiest on good, but at least they won't be bottoming for the season going three and a quarter first time on soft. And it should be safe good.
 
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Interesting final shape-up to the race.

Lucy Turner gets the ride on Fanion and will take five off. I was impressed with her ride on Chambard at the festival.

Tom Scu appears to have opted for Gericault Roque over Remastered.

Corach Rambler doesn't have a jockey next to it. Could they be thinking of withdrawing it? (Personally I think it's about as likely as me withdrawing from Rachel Riley.)
 
It looks like maybe LIT has lost one of its legs. It's back out to 25/1 (5 places) with a couple of books so I've gone back in.

Nothing ventured, and all that...
 
Lucinda Russell will walk the course today, and make a decision on whether Corach Rambler runs in the Hennessy tomorrow.

Ahoy Senor goes to the Many Clouds at Aintree's beeches meeting.
 
He's by Jeremy who's best chaser (Mister Fisher) is a good ground animal. CR has also won on good ground. Is she aware of these facts.
 
Hoping Maxbet can resist the temptation...

My figures and thoughts on the race:

[TABLE="width: 553"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD]Horse
[/TD]
[TD]Age
[/TD]
[TD]Weight
[/TD]
[TD]OR
[/TD]
[TD]MON
172+
[/TD]
[TD]Notes
[/TD]
[TD]RPR
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Lostintranslation
[/TD]
[TD]10
[/TD]
[TD]11-4
[/TD]
[TD]150
[/TD]
[TD]186
[/TD]
[TD]?
[/TD]
[TD]172
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Remastered
[/TD]
[TD]9
[/TD]
[TD]10-10
[/TD]
[TD]142
[/TD]
[TD]180
[/TD]
[TD]?
[/TD]
[TD]173
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Lord Accord
[/TD]
[TD]7
[/TD]
[TD]10-4
[/TD]
[TD]136
[/TD]
[TD]179
[/TD]
[TD]? p
[/TD]
[TD]169
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Fanion D'Estruval
[/TD]
[TD]7
[/TD]
[TD]12-0
[/TD]
[TD]160
[/TD]
[TD]176
[/TD]
[TD]+p j?
[/TD]
[TD]165
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Annsam
[/TD]
[TD]7
[/TD]
[TD]10-5
[/TD]
[TD]137
[/TD]
[TD]173
[/TD]
[TD]p jr
[/TD]
[TD]168
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Fiddlerontheroof
[/TD]
[TD]8
[/TD]
[TD]11-9
[/TD]
[TD]155
[/TD]
[TD]172
[/TD]
[TD]+
[/TD]
[TD]169
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Potterman
[/TD]
[TD]9
[/TD]
[TD]11-3
[/TD]
[TD]149
[/TD]
[TD]171
[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]164
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Gericault Roque
[/TD]
[TD]6
[/TD]
[TD]10-7
[/TD]
[TD]139
[/TD]
[TD]171
[/TD]
[TD]p nov
[/TD]
[TD]165
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Oscar Elite
[/TD]
[TD]7
[/TD]
[TD]10-7
[/TD]
[TD]139
[/TD]
[TD]171
[/TD]
[TD]nov
[/TD]
[TD]166
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Our Power
[/TD]
[TD]7
[/TD]
[TD]10-9
[/TD]
[TD]141
[/TD]
[TD]169
[/TD]
[TD]p nov?
[/TD]
[TD]163
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Corach Rambler
[/TD]
[TD]8
[/TD]
[TD]11-1
[/TD]
[TD]147
[/TD]
[TD]168
[/TD]
[TD]+p nov?
[/TD]
[TD]164
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Le Milos
[/TD]
[TD]7
[/TD]
[TD]11-0 4ex
[/TD]
[TD]146
[/TD]
[TD]168
[/TD]
[TD]+p nov
[/TD]
[TD]169
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Threeunderthrufive
[/TD]
[TD]7
[/TD]
[TD]11-5
[/TD]
[TD]151
[/TD]
[TD]166
[/TD]
[TD]p nov
[/TD]
[TD]165
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Red Happy
[/TD]
[TD]5
[/TD]
[TD]10-2
[/TD]
[TD]134
[/TD]
[TD]166
[/TD]
[TD]p
[/TD]
[TD]158
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Busselton
[/TD]
[TD]5
[/TD]
[TD]11-3
[/TD]
[TD]149
[/TD]
[TD]165
[/TD]
[TD]p nov
[/TD]
[TD]161
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Diablo De Rouhet
[/TD]
[TD]9
[/TD]
[TD]10-2
[/TD]
[TD]134
[/TD]
[TD]165
[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]158
[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]

This is a hugely competitive renewal, which more than makes up for what it might lack in established outright class. However, that isn’t to say there isn’t a Gold Cup winner lurking. Several Gold Cup winners have taken this off modest marks, the most recent being Native River [off 155] in 2016 although it was the following season before he took the big one. The last horse to win both races in the same season was Bobs Worth [off 160] in 2012-13. My initial punt for the race, Velvet Elvis, was taken out earlier in the week and I took 25/1 Lostintranslation instead. He is simply chucked in on his old form so it’s just a question of how close he can get to that level first time up but in recent seasons first time up is the time to catch him and the jockey has a useful claim. I keep being drawn to Fanion D’Estruval (33/1 and weak) because everything about this horse for this race seems wrong but he’s the stable’s last man standing so he must be very highly regarded and the claimer was very impressive on a stable companion at the festival. I’ll think a bit more about the race before deciding what else to back. I’m holding out for now on the Williams horse in the hope that 40s become available through Friday.

Edit - there appears to be money again this morning for FD'E so I took the 33s.
 
They're just outside the track record in the last chase at Newbury. Expect a slew of withdrawals tomorrow.
 
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