Daily picks.

gigilo said:
A very strange ride coincidentally by RLB last time out on dancing freddy,although the jock is useless but not even he is this bad, never picked up the whip once and had no intention of trying to get in the race.Whether that is because the horse was to far adrift is hard to judge,but looked like non trier never lost any ground and the angle shown looked to have a bit in hand.Thats the problem with the guest horses as in dave evans very difficult to back with any confidence!!
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What did you make of the ride given to Slatey Hen at Kempton 2 starts back by Robert Spencer. Not suggesting it was bent, but it was mind-bogglingly inept, yet got no press mention at all.
 
RLB equates to Robert Losing Butler IMO.

I do think most of the Butler horses moving to Guest and their linked jock's is a bit suspect.

Brown Pete was given a typical stable ride today; Slowly away, rushed up around the outside, faded. Decent horse can't cope with that race style never mind moderate ones. He's probably had to run an 11 second 1f sector to get that position which is suicide.

Press just seem to sit on the fence regarding bad rides and the stewards seem content counting the number of smacks a horse gets.
 
He's never going to make a Mckeown or lynch if he's that obvious!!! either the worst jock of all time or was deliberate,looked deliberate but i'd like to see him ride again.Shouldv'e won the race,in saying that i wouldn't necessarily be backing the horse as they went no pace but thats irrelevant.In reply to rory.
 
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Iv'e unknowingly put myself on the line as RLB is riding Dancing Freddy for Guest/rackbackmypoker tomorrow and I've backed Luscivious :blink:

Sods law he will beat mine, but I couldn't think of a better jock to have on one you want to lose.
 
Would be hard to back anything other than those two,looking at the times on the 6th of december luscivious has 4ls to find although was drawn furthest away and eased a furlong out.Very likely to lead though and is huge advantage there could be a 1,2.
 
An absolute mad price by hills and 365 went 8s now into 11/2:lol: hardly surrising as when it won at chester clocked up standard times quicker than that of older horses bertoliver 77 and foxy music 84 yet that was over 1/2 furlong further than their races.This could be fav by tomorrow.
 
gigilo said:
An absolute mad price by hills and 365 went 8s now into 11/2:lol: hardly surrising as when it won at chester clocked up standard times quicker than that of older horses bertoliver 77 and foxy music 84 yet that was over 1/2 furlong further than their races.This could be fav by tomorrow.
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What horse/race?
 
Thanks. I'm easily confused. Your part about Bet365 going a mental price of 8/1 threw me.
 
Think i'll be trading most of this off, 4/1 now:lol:,i rarely have bets unless i can bet ew.
 
Forgot to mention a very strange ride by RLB two races back to back not going after the horse at all contented to stay in same position with no assistance whatsover.I think this will have to be backed on its next couple of runs,it may just be the jock is so bad which i know he is but there is no effort whatsoever.Up to those two races dancing freddy had some nice swell form as well so will be overpriced relative to probably being inform.
 
Carrickboy 12:50 Haydock - this horse strikes me as just the sort to go off shorter than the 5/1 betfair available. The owner gets his trainers to target this meeting and this horse will like the going and goes well fresh. The 9/4 32Red seems a more realistic s.p. Definitely a horse I would like to trade before the off as he tends to clout the odd fence.
 
swedish chef said:
Carrickboy 12:50 Haydock - this horse strikes me as just the sort to go off shorter than the 5/1 betfair available. The owner gets his trainers to target this meeting and this horse will like the going and goes well fresh. The 9/4 32Red seems a more realistic s.p. Definitely a horse I would like to trade before the off as he tends to clout the odd fence.
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I think I better leave this to you gigolo after that :lol:
 
Bubbly was last as well,but main objective was to get the price,i've done tomorrows rubbish and just finishing off the swell card on sunday yet another dire card!!
 
When i put 1pt basically i'm just trying to get on as much as possible,like todays race was backable at 8s and 9s when i put it on here i also got 10s.
Most of the races i pick will have a side ew bet i think most of the horses i put on here will trade 30% lower average so i usually put a 10% ew bet or 20% all depending on how much i like them.They aren't necessarily my stakes but they are stakes i know if someone wants to follow they will be winning consistently,i'd expect 90% of them to be winning bets even if only small just on the trade.Sometimes i don't even particularly fancy a pick,but i'm almost sure they will be overbet for specific reasons so will still put a trade up.
 
SlimChance said:
I'm enjoying the thread. It just shows how little work compilers do with the formbook.
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but don't compilers try and ape how they think the punter will bet..rather than getting too intricate with the form..hence big stable horses are shorter due to just being from a big stable..so punters follow big stables more than small
 
EC1 - I find that point hard to argue against completely. I would say though that punters never allow an "incorrect" price to last long. The definition of the correct price though is complex. At the end of the day betting markets are dictated by supply and denand but they are highly manipulated by the bigger bookmakers.
 
If you look at 90% of the horses they are lower grade handicappers that i focus on it's where the value is,group races listed races don't interest me i usually put a line through them as there is virtually never any value.
The only group races etc i'm interested in are 2yr olds and maybe 3yr olds but a bit more guessing there with the 3yr olds.
I do bet at the opposite end of the spectrum using 2yr olds running in maidens that have run decent times,usually in april/may time there will be debutants that will have clocked up decent times and will in most instances going off 4/6,4/7 on second run when they really should be 1/3 shots.
These are quite rare bets for me but april/may i usually have between 15/20 maybe one or two will lose.
 
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