Daily picks.

Two trades steel city boy ran in the second division at swell last time out that race was .75 quicker than sandwiths run over tomorrows fav nafa 7/2 and sharp shoes 8/1 behind.On those times steel city boy wouldv'e beaten them by half a second at the weights,steel city boy had tancred spirit 8/1 a hd infront of him but tomorrow has a 7pound pull and also an 8 pound pull with argentine 7/2 for 1 1/2ls.I think argentine and nafa are open to improvement and i like the way argentine finished off its race but on those two races from the 23rd of december steel city boy is more like a 6/1 shot.
 
St ignatius was well beaten at wolves and has been priced up on that race,previous to that came back after 130 lay off to run a decent race behind triple winner mataajir beaten 3 1/4ls.That form hasn't worked out with the placed horses and if taken at face value through fearless poet has 6 pound pull for 5 1/2ls.That would leave him a couple of lengths to find,but on his run behind mataajir was drawn 14 and ran wide throughout and was a long lay off,plus the time of that race was ok.Tomorrow drawn 1 first 4 in the betting are drawn 8,9,10 and 12 the 10/1 looks overpriced looks more like an 11/2 shot to me.May have a little ew as well purely because of the draw.
 
Very good thread Gigilo and interesting stuff regarding the trainers in form - will look into that today using the top 4 trainers on the "in form" list - Scott Dixon, Nick Williams, Nicky Henderson and Donald McCain and see how they get on today, a few short ones but Dixon has Incomparable FTO for him at 16's whilst Nick Williams has a nice horse in Diamond Brook in the 3m 5f Handicap Chase at Plumpton.
 
Scott Dixon has actually been running Dandy's satellite yard for a few months, so the horses have been in his care for some time Irish.

Quote from around September:

As for our satellite yard at Retford the owners son Scott Dixon is currently in the process of applying for his Trainer Licence and once that has come through he will take over his yard sometime in December.
Click to expand...

Although El Dececy times have been on the slow side over C&D and I prefer to be against the Guest and especially McKay horses, the booking of Carson looks a positive to me.

I thought he was excellent from the front on On The Cusp last week and I'm surprised Egan does not have the ride.

I wouldn't be surprised to see al ate false gamble on Carlton Scroop in the 12.50, with another suicidal ride.

Good luck
 
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Dreadful card bit of interest!

12.25 2,4
12.55 4,5
1.25 1,2,4,5
1.55 2,3,4,5
2.25 1,2,3,4,5,7
3.30 1,3,5 x10ps


12.25 2,4
12.55 4,5
1.25 1,2,4,5
1.55 3,4
2.25 1,2,3,5,8
3.0 1,5 x40ps

12.25 2,4
12,55 4,5
1.25 1,2,4,5
1.55 3,4
2.25 2,5
3.0 1,5 x£2 plus £30favs line
 
Track is cetainly not suiting loads of the runners,i won't be backing there for the next few meetings,will be interesting to see the times.
 
I think it might be a case a jockeys struggling with the early pace angle, possibly if the wind is playing a part.

I thought Harley, Mayor and Payne were going to struggle with forcing the pace in the last race.

Going on about Guest again, but Carson gave On The Cusp on of the best rides from the front I've seen in a while last week, but does not retain the ride.

He's at the track and it's not as if he stays loyal with his usual pilots.
 
Cards are rubbish at the moment fields seem to be getting smaller,tracks are riding different everyday and the books are getting even tighter with prices.As the weather gets colder it'll become even harder to bet jan/feb are the only months that i sometimes struggle,i keep two days ahead on the form as well
but you still struggle to get the prices they're up so quick.Two cards again tomorrow and i doubt there is a bet looking at the prices that are already up,usually i'd be betting in every other race on two aw cards!!
 
1pt trade having a ball. 6.30 kempton 12/1 generally.

Hard to know exactly how much ability the 8yr old still retains and steps up in class on ratings,but going through the race not many runners have done much on the clock on aw surfaces.A second to mountrath here off 54 finishing infront of woolston ferry another of todays runners yet a bigger prIce,actually has some reasonable times over the c/d and 12/1 looks slightly overpriced with one of the fancied runners out.
 
wolves 6.45 vanilla rum 1pt trade 9/2 365 Out at 3.75!!!
.05ptew
 
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Another days racing on the aw where nothing stands out at the prices so far,vanilla rum is a little bit of value at 9/2 after running two consecuitve races in blinkers.First time blinkers was 2nd to arkaim in a reasonable time for the grade and last time out third in a better race than tomorrows to yourinthewill.A further 3ls back to previous conqueror arkaim in 4th with another 2 1/4ls back to barton bounty previously won off 53.With that race having mainly horses rated in the high 50s and low 60s this is a drop in class.The form looks solid in a very poor race and could easily go off a lot shorter than 9/2 as there's really only three that look likely to run there race.Had a small ew as well as the effect of blinkers may not work a third time but the trade should cover that stake as i expect it to go off fav.
 
I very rarely look at betfair colin,place markets i would say are a waste of time in general and as i'm trying to back ew most of the time when i really fancy something then i just use the books.I don't think i've ever had a place bet on betfair!!
 
Thats the only thing i use them for and half the time someone else does it for me as quite a few of the bets i do aren't under my accounts,one of my mates is a web designer he's constantly opening accounts for me he does most of my trading.3/1 now vanilla rum and shortening so trades looking safe,just wondering if it may get absolutely hammered as it did look the only horse in the race that would be backed.
 
12.401,2,3,4,5
1.10 1,3,4
1.45 2,3
2.15 1,3
2.50 1,5
3.25 1,2,4 x£1 plus same perm just 1,3 1.10 and banker number 1 in 3.25 x£3
 
There is no real liquidity in the place markets until the the 15 minute window before the off and there is no guarantee of getting the place price you want.

The exchanges do beat sp, but I don't go along with the view that they lead the market, as you never see front end horses bigger than the early overnight prices offered by the bookies, unless of course someone is in the know. At least with the exchanges you can get on.

Not only do you have the problem of layers laying race by race, but they don't want to be stung by the issue of non runners. I personally think even with the reduction factors, the fact that the place terms remains the same with non runners scares off any possible layers.
 
Backed flash crash ew at 5/2 if its improved there should be nothing between that and fav no value now though.Vanilla rum is now 11/4 so reasonable trade coming up.
 
;)Only ran .12 slower than fine resolve on same card but that was debut run so with natural improvement,i usually allow 10 pounds was bet to nothing.I underestimated.:lol:
 
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