Daily picks.

gigilo said:
Curragh (IRE) Result
24 May 2015
1:40 » BIG BAD BOB EUROPEAN BREEDERS FUND (COLTS & GELDINGS) MAIDEN (PLUS 10 RACE)
(2yo) 6f Good To Yielding
£9,627.91, £2,232.56, £976.74, £558.14

WATCH RACE - 25p
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HORSE/SP AGE WGT TRAINER/JOCKEY OR TS RPR

1 11 Air Force Blue (USA) 4/1 2 9-5 A P O'Brien — * *
Ryan Moore


2 3 nk Rockaway Valley (IRE) 25/1 2 9-5 Mrs John Harrington — * *
Shane Foley


3 5 2 Tonkinese 16/1 2 9-5 M Halford — * *
James Doyle


4 8 3½ Independence Day (IRE) 16/1 2 9-5 David Wachman — * *
Billy Lee


5 10 hd Munshid (IRE) 9/2 2 9-5 Kevin Prendergast — * *
Chris Hayes


« 6 4 ½ Fisherman's Blues (IRE) 8/1 2 9-5 G M Lyons — * *
Colin Keane


« 7 12 3¾ Tribal Beat (IRE) 5/4F 2 9-5 t J S Bolger — * *
Kevin Manning


8 2 8 Painted Cliffs (IRE) 12/1 2 9-5 A P O'Brien — * *
Joseph O'Brien


9 9 nk Gossip Central (IRE) 100/1 2 9-0 A L T Moore — * *
Sean Corby5


10 6 2 Trenchtown Rock (IRE) 66/1 2 9-5 Charles O'Brien — * *
F M Berry


« 11 7 1¾ Collision Course (IRE) 40/1 2 9-5 A Oliver — * *
Gary Carroll


11 ran TIME 1m 12.97s (slow by 1.97s)


Air force blue
Rockaway valley

Just when the 2yr olds have been showing nothing on the clock a decent race comes up,this 6f maiden only .72 slower than the older handicappers rated up to 105,this is the best marker set so far at least on decent ground and the winner and runner up look automatic 100 horses which has been hard top say about any maidens with confidence so far.The O'Brien horse had the draw and was with the pace throughout so might be better than winning margin suggests,although the second was drawn wide and dropped in and nothing really came off the pace so the second has done well and there should be some nice value floating around for runner up.I presume they will both entered up in group races and might be worth taking some prices for although I do remember anthem alexander ran the decent time at Tipperary around june so there's just 2 weeks left for newcomers to show their hands...
Click to expand...

Good isn't he incredible prices 9/4 last night,that air forace one at 14/1 looking huge!!!
 
Curragh (IRE) Result
07 Jun 2015
« 2:35 » TRM EXCELLENCE IN EQUINE NUTRITION MAIDEN
(3yo+) 6f Good
£6,686.05, £1,550.39, £678.29, £387.60

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HORSE/SP AGE WGT TRAINER/JOCKEY OR TS RPR

« 1 11 Fort Del Oro (IRE) 7/4F 3 9-0 Edward Lynam — * *
Billy Lee


« 2 6 4¼ Creggs Pipes (IRE) 20/1 3 9-0 Andrew Slattery 76 * *
Declan McDonogh


« 3 9 4½ Knockmaole Boy (IRE) 8/1 3 9-5 T Stack — * *
Wayne Lordan


« 4 1 1¼ Expreso Brasileiro (IRE) 11/1 3 9-5 W McCreery — * *
Robson Aguiar


« 5 8 2¾ Romiac (IRE) 7/1 3 9-5 Ms Sheila Lavery 73 * *
Pat Smullen


6 7 2½ Blossom Mills 40/1 3 9-0 Joseph G Murphy — * *
Gary Carroll


7 2 2 Louis Leroy (IRE) 33/1 3 8-9 Edward Lynam — * *
Oisin Orr10


« 8 5 ¾ I Will Excel (IRE) 11/2 3 9-5 M D O'Callaghan 88 * *
Emmet McNamara


« 9 4 1 Compass Hill (USA) 7/2 3 9-5 John Joseph Murphy — * *
Joseph O'Brien


« 10 10 16 Western Seaboard (IRE) 100/1 3 9-0 J F Grogan — * *
Seamie Heffernan


10 ran TIME 1m 11.46s (slow by 0.46s)

Fort del oro

Very nice looking progressive filly with loads of scope out of lpope de vega dam won the queen mary had run on heavy ground on debut but today on better ground slaughtered this field was value for more than the 4 1/2ls probably another 2/3ls on top.The time was eyecatching 1.38 seconds quicker than 679 rated bainne winning the older handicap,bainne actually won easily as well was rated in the 80s 2013,the latter group 3 race was .46 slower than the fillys win although no great early pace in that race think it still shows the quality of her win.She looks a conservative 90 horse on that run and although I don't follow the irish cards or handicaps I would be looking to back her for any 3 yr old handicaps in advance as the handicapper could easily underestimate this win as looked a poor maiden.Infact if you take the second runner literally you could dismiss the form as rubbish,it may even be the case the second has slightly improved and wouldn't surprise me she herself is a couple of pounds well in looking at that older handicap but as it stands the winner looks the one to be following.
I get the feeling the handicapper will put her up to a mark in the low 80s for this win and she could still have a load of improvement on top,hopefully I will be able to keep track of the irish racing through the summer as she looks like one to get on early...
 
Thirsk Result
08 Jun 2015
« 2:45 » WEATHERBYS BANK HANDICAP
(Class 5) (0-70, 3yo) 1m Good To Firm
£3,234.50, £962.50, £481.00, £240.50


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HORSE/SP AGE WGT TRAINER/JOCKEY OR TS RPR

« 1 6 Stoneboat Bill 7/1 3 8-7 Declan Carroll 55 * *
David Allan


« 2 14 7 Blackfoot Brave (IRE) 12/1 3 9-1 b Michael Dods 63 * *
Connor Beasley


« 3 7 shd Cape Xenia 5/1 3 9-6 Henry Candy 68 * *
Dane O'Neill


« 4 11 shd Miningrocks (FR) 66/1 3 8-2over weight3 Ruth Carr 50 * *
James Sullivan


« 5 2 1 Normandy Knight 14/1 3 9-0 Richard Fahey 62 * *
Patrick Mathers


« 6 5 ¾ Orobas (IRE) 40/1 3 8-2over weight5 Ron Barr 50 * *
Duran Fentiman


« 7 15 1¼ The Wee Barra (IRE) 10/1 3 8-11 Kevin Ryan 62 * *
Shane Gray3


« 8 10 ½ Brosnan (IRE) 4/1F 3 9-3 b Giles Bravery 65 * *
Graham Gibbons


« 9 1 ¾ Archilles (USA) 7/1 3 9-7 Jo Hughes 69 * *
Ben Curtis


« 10 4 hd Polly Jackson 33/1 3 9-0 Karen Tutty 67 * *
Gemma Tutty5


« 11 3 ½ Grand Depart 40/1 3 8-12 p James Bethell 60 * *
P J McDonald


« 12 12 nk Mahsooba (USA) 11/2 3 9-4 p Ed Dunlop 66 * *
Paul Hanagan


« 13 9 6 Naval Action 40/1 3 8-4 Sandy Thomson 52 * *
Andrew Mullen


« 14 8 6 Shipwright (IRE) 11/1 3 9-5 b Mark Johnston 67 * *
Silvestre De Sousa


14 ran TIME 1m 38.60s (slow by 2.30

Stoneboat bill

Not strong looking form and overwatered ground quite unusual for thirsk as going sticjk was 9.3 but wasn't right and the ground was nearer good with some juice in it,this was won by 55 rated stoneboat bill out of top class virtual had previously shown little stepped up in grade today and won like a horse 2 stone in.The time was backed up by the class 4 later on the card won by favourite treat rated 73 from the older horses,the winning time of that race was .14 slower than the 55 rated 3yr old and even though they didn't go overly quick in the higher grade race,the comparison is still very good with the 3yr old travelling further and winning more easily.He will get 14-15 pound rise for this win anything less would seem extremely generous,the ? is will he repeat it plus its difficyilt to know if he will need similar ground as has run poorly on soft ground and fast ground or it maybe just a case of huge improvement,also looks to have plenty of scope.He was well backed as well,anyone who thought it would improve can only have backed it on the fact the ground would be gd/fm so he's probably capable of running just as well with juice in the ground as that's what he ended up running on.His new mark will be really interesting as these races up to 70 are desperately weak..
 
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gigilo said:
13:55 Windsor, 28 Jun 2014


6f


New Horse Racing Odds At unibet.co.uk Maiden Stakes (Class 5) (2YO only)
Winner £2,588 - 13 ran

Good



1 Purple, light green star, purple sleeves, light green stars, purple cap, light green star 9. St Brelades Bay (IRE) (9)ATR Tracker 5/6 Fav 2 9 - 5 R Hughes
R Hannon
-
held up in mid-division on inside, not clear run and switched left over 2f out, switched left again well over 1f out, went 2nd over 1f out, strong run to lead inside final furlong, ran on strongly
2 1½ Dark blue, scarlet hoop, light blue sleeves, scarlet cap 5. Home Of The Brave (IRE) (8)ATR Tracker 9/2 2Fav 2 9 - 5 J Fortune
Hugo Palmer
-
slowly into stride, pulled hard and held up towards rear, headway over 1f out, strong run into 3rd inside final furlong, finished well and took 2nd post
3 shd Yellow, red chevron and sleeves, emerald green cap 7. Quintus Cerialis (IRE) (7)ATR Tracker 20/1 2 9 - 5 A Kirby
C G Cox
-
chased leaders, led halfway, ridden and headed inside final furlong, one pace and lost 2nd post
4 2½ White, grey spots, white cap 12. Hawkin (IRE) (10)ATR Tracker 66/1 2 9 - 0 S Sanders
R M Beckett
-
chased leaders on outside, pushed along halfway, one pace and lost 3rd inside final furlong
5 hd Royal blue, white star and armlets, yellow cap 6. Inniscastle Lad (11)ATR Tracker 50/1 2 9 - 5 D C Costello
W R Muir
-
mid-division, pushed along halfway, soon outpaced, switched left well over 1f out, kept on inside final furlong
6 ¾ Emerald green, royal blue chevron and armlets 4. First Class Mail (2)ATR Tracker 33/1 2 9 - 2 Charles Bishop (3)
M R Channon
-
chased leaders, pushed along halfway, weakened inside final furlong
7 ½ Red, red cap, purple star 13. Pixeleen (5)ATR Tracker 50/1 2 9 - 0 T P Queally
M S Saunders
-
mid-division, headway over 1f out, edged left and kept on same pace inside final furlong
8 6 Claret, gold braid, claret sleeves, claret cap, gold tassel 10. Total Demolition (IRE) (1)ATR Tracker 16/1 2 9 - 5 J P Spencer
Olly Stevens
-
dwelt, soon recovered to lead on rail, headed halfway, chased leader until over 1f out, weakened entering final furlong
9 1¾ Dark green, white and dark green check sleeves and cap 1. Bakht A Rawan (IRE) (3)ATR Tracker 33/1 2 9 - 5 J P Fahy
M D I Usher
-
chased leaders, pushed along halfway, weakening when slightly hampered well over 1f out
10 1 Red, emerald green triple diamond, armlets and diamond on cap 8. Soldier Sam (IRE) (12)ATR Tracker 14/1 2 9 - 5 Dane O'Neill
R Hannon
-
slowly into stride, ran green and always outpaced
11 2¾ Dark blue, yellow epaulets, dark blue sleeves, yellow spots 3. Dutch Falcon (6)ATR Tracker 25/1 2 9 - 5 S J Drowne
W R Muir
-
chased leaders, pushed along and lost place approaching halfway, soon behind
12 2¼ Yellow, white hoop, white and yellow halved sleeves, red cap 11. Blue Amazon (IRE) (4)ATR Tracker 100/1 2 8 - 11 Thomas Brown (3)
L Carter
-
chased leaders, weakened 2f out
13 7 Black, emerald green triple diamond, diamonds on sleeves, black cap, emerald green diamond 2. Doctor Kehoe (13)ATR Tracker 8/1 2 9 - 5 K Fallon
R A Fahey
-
went badly leaving stalls, soon outpaced in rear, never on terms

Off Time:13:58:14
Winning Time:1m 13.06s


Home of the brave
Quintus cerialis
Pixeleeen


Probably not a great maiden although winner looked different class and will probably be contesting listed races minimum,the runner up hugo palmers home of the brave as the winner drawn wide was a big huge eyecatcher under hand's n heels and could yet prove higher grade himself.Another out of star spangled banner already two winners at ascot this sesson he looks massive improver although probably won't be great value will be interesting to see progression.There were several other good debuts,one from the channon and muir stable the muir horse again drawn wide they look like winning races could be decent handicappers at least and worth noting.The time of this race was .49 quicker than the 73 rated 3yr old in following maiden so for horses in the maiden on debut can be quite positive with lots of improvement to come from the three mentioned.
Hopefully the cox horse on second run,showed loads of pace till being outclassed and eased art finish will get decent marks in handicaps and one for nurserys as also ran quicker than the 73 rated maiden winner so will be looking at that mark closely.One further back in the field which maybe the real value pixeleen travelled well in race was never goiong to win but was ridden with nurserys in mind and could be thrown in on future marks with two runs already down the fioeld.He came home under hands n' heels as well..
Click to expand...

[BAn absolute shedful winning off here two 25/1 shots yesterday and two others I know a few emailed me with multiples they'd done so at least someones had a touch at least backed todays!!:cool::D][/B]
 
Windsor Result
08 Jun 2015
6:20 » EBF STALLIONS MAIDEN STAKES
(Class 5) (2yo) 6f Good To Firm
£3,234.50, £962.50, £481.00, £240.50

WATCH RACE - 25p
RESULTRATE RACE
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HORSE/SP AGE WGT TRAINER/JOCKEY OR TS RPR

1 2 Torment 8/1 2 9-5 Richard Hannon — * *
Ryan Moore


« 2 10 1¾ Menai (IRE) 2/1F 2 9-5 Charles Hills — * *
Jamie Spencer


3 13 ½ Human Nature (IRE) 3/1 2 9-5 Saeed bin Suroor — * *
James Doyle


« 4 3 hd Willsy 16/1 2 9-5 Mick Channon — * *
Charles Bishop


« 5 6 ½ Jinko's Approval (IRE) 28/1 2 9-5 Ed de Giles — * *
William Twiston-Davies


6 12 ½ Toledo 5/1 2 9-5 Richard Hannon — * *
Richard Hughes


7 7 hd Surbett (IRE) 20/1 2 9-5 Marco Botti — * *
Martin Harley


8 5 ½ Goodwood Zodiac (IRE) 25/1 2 9-5 William Knight — * *
Adam Kirby


« 9 1 1 Cogent 25/1 2 9-5 Ed Dunlop — * *
Jim Crowley


10 14 2¾ Sir Roderic (IRE) 50/1 2 9-5 Rod Millman — * *
Ted Durcan


11 9 ¾ Danecase 25/1 2 9-5 David Dennis — * *
Fergus Sweeney


12 11 hd Ashford Island 66/1 2 9-5 Mike Murphy — * *
Shane Kelly


« 13 8 ¾ Phantom Flipper 14/1 2 9-5 Richard Hannon — * *
Sean Levey


14 4 30 Ron's Ballad 100/1 2 9-5 Michael Madgwick — * *
William Carson


14 ran TIME 1m 14.25s (slow by 3.75s)


Goodwood zodiac

Yet another slow 2yr old maiden running theme this season,a week away from ascot and yet only 4/5 horses with anything on the clock probably the weakest bunch seen in years
this race no better but an eyecatcher in goodwood zodiac.Was 7ls off the opace for first 3 furlongs eventually finishing on the bridle,kirby making sure not to be involved in finish and even though finishing 8th was clkearly second best in the race,hard to know how much better he was than this form as time was slow but he should be nice nursery type to watch out for especially if given another quiet ride next time out..
 
I can't agree they are a weak bunch of 2yo's just based on final time judgement. Judging how good 2yo's are as a whole just based on final time is flawed imo due to the fact that many maiden races are not truly run enough for you be lucky enough to trap the races where very good 2yo's run.

Most maiden races..2 or 3yo are not like ordinary races where a % of the field are going to go fast enough early to show true ability through final time..they are races where early pace is usually slower than ideal..horses being put in behind to educate them etc.

So.. by this time of year..lets say we have had 200 maiden races..out of those 200 races probably only 50 have been run at a pace condusive to decent overall time ..being reflective of ability. So you have only a 25% chance or less of even seeing a final time that reflects true ability just on that alone.

On top of that..lets say there was an average of 10 runners per race..so you have 2000 horse performances..from probably 1000 different animals..of those 1000 horses..probably only 50 are going to be above average enough to be notable..if that. So you have your initial 25% true run races..and hope that within them you have one of the 50 decent animals running in them. I would say the chance of coming across both situations is not going to be that often...so some years its possible for you to be unlucky enough to get a couple..and other seasons 10 or 12. But its nothing to with the general level of 2yo..its down to luck of getting a decent animal in a true run race.

I've got many 2yo's that have shown themselves able to run very good overall times....when they do meet a true run race. By only using final time you are losing the ability of rating the 75% of races that aren't truly run..and within those discarded races are many fast 2yo's.

obviously i've only etsimated the number of races and runners but % wise by this time of year with 200 maiden races run you would realistically have about 3 or 4 showing fast overall times by now..on average
 
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It's not just finishing times most of the form you can pick holes in everywhere even the races with decent times have been let down visually not many have looked anything special even the ones heading the markets at ascot,undoubtedly there will be some decent horses but unlike most other years there's notyhing outstanding around to point out as being pretty special.Obviously most of the maidens are not run quick,but I've hardly had many eyecatchers that look far beyond that form when usually by now I'd have a list of probably 25,plus there should be 4/5 races that are throwing up a ruck of winners and there isn't most of the better looking formlines have been let down.From a betting point of view it just leaves a lot more guesswork if you want to bet at places like ascot,which is the main reasin for keeping track of them and having a bet at big prices.
 
gigilo said:
Leicester Result
10 Apr 2015
« 4:25 » BARKBY MAIDEN FILLIES' STAKES
(Class 5) (3yo) 7f Good To Soft
£3,234.50, £962.50, £481.00, £240.50

WATCH RACE - 25p
RESULTRATE RACE
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HORSE/SP AGE WGT TRAINER/JOCKEY OR TS RPR

« 1 1 Postbag 5/2 3 9-0 Henry Candy — * *
Dane O'Neill


« 2 3 shd Journey 5/2 3 9-0 John Gosden — * *
Robert Havlin


3 6 ½ Neutron Bomb (IRE) 8/1 3 9-0 Tom Dascombe — * *
Richard Kingscote


« 4 7 15 Hawkin (IRE) 2/1F 3 9-0 Ralph Beckett 78 * *
Frederik Tylicki


5 8 1 Princess Guest (IRE) 16/1 3 9-0 George Margarson — * *
Tom Queally


« 6 2 9 Rustique 25/1 3 9-0 Ed Walker — * *
Antonio Fresu


7 4 3¼ Black Sheba 25/1 3 9-0 James Eustace — * *
Stevie Donohoe


7 ran TIME 1m 26.31s (slow by 3.61s)

Postbag
Journey
Neutron bomb

First significant time of the season,had to double check this as time seems overy quick for 3yr old fillies maiden,it was .70 quicker than the older handicap on the card won by
duelling dragon rated 75 and the fillies carried 3 pound more so the time looks suspiciously quick.Very rare to see a small field of fillies bettering a class 4 handicap.at this point will have to take a positive view of the result for now if taken at face value you could equate marks of 90 yet their rpr were only 64 and 63 before todays race,the 3rd neutron bomb was only debut run which makes that run look even better.Don't know what the handicapper will do with these but if these times work out,they could be very well handicapped I'm pretty sure they won't be given marks over 80 I'm not even sure they will be given marks over 75 but it is pure speculation..
Click to expand...

About time was in very poor race today journey,ran into one last time out and postbag got stopped in run at goodwood and neutron bomb ran on wrong ground,could stull work out alright this form!!!
 
Originally Posted by gigilo View Post

Air force one is 16/1 for Coventry if that's not a mistake although they have no firm putting the price up on oddschecker,that's by far the best value in the race if it's running..


gigilo said:
16/1 racebets 14/1 ppower
Click to expand...

9/1 biggest now..
 
He is the one who just might give the Bolger horse something to think about.
Certainly the e/w value in the race.
 
Horses who look unlucky or run on are not necessarily going to reverse the form.

As for value. It's value when it comes in. Works for me.
 
EC1 said:
I haven't highlighted it because it was unlucky though...i don't just back horses that are unlucky....i've highlighted it as it comes out the best horse in the race re energy usage..and its 50/1 against 2/1...the 2/1 is a joke price basically imo. 2/1 in a race like this means a horse is superior to the rest by a few lbs..Round Two isn't..imo.

If someone gave Usain Bolt a 10 yard start and finished within 2 yards of him i'd suggest that he was better than Bolt and with a level start would beat him

Value imo is measured by how much is in your bank after a long series of bets..if its more..then you are getting value..if its less..you aren't.
Click to expand...

Doesn't always work out like that though. For example, If that was the case then shouldn't Mr Mole have hacked up in the QM.

We all know they are priced regards of where they are trained.
Having said that. Do I think Round Two will win, Yes.
 
i didn't measure the split times for Mr Mole..i have with this one..you are talking about unlucky horses..i'm talking specifically about one race where the 3rd horse measures better than the winner

don't know what happened with my above posts..so have had to put blank them..computer playing up

at 50/1..i'd take the gamble that i'm on the right track..you can have 2/1..we all happy then i reckon..you see that as value..i see tother one as my value..thats what makes the game
 
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Doesn't matter what price the horse is to me if I think it will win. Be it 2-1 or 50-1. The bigger price just gives an each way return which is all good.
 
Frankel said:
Doesn't matter what price the horse is to me if I think it will win. Be it 2-1 or 50-1. The bigger price just gives an each way return which is all good.
Click to expand...

If i believe that two horses are about the same ability though and they meet in a race at those prices..i'd go for 50/1 shot..which was my point tbh.

one mans value is another mans non value..thats why when someone says to someone..thats not value..its rubbish really..because value is perceived in the mind..value it not a general laid down fact..its personal opinion based on a value concept of that person...there isn't such a thing as a horse being value per se or it would never be the price it is..as we would all agree it was too big and it would shorten by the fact we all would back it
 
EC1 said:
If i believe that two horses are about the same ability though and they meet in a race at those prices..i'd go for 50/1 shot..which was my point tbh.

one mans value is another mans non value..thats why when someone says to someone..thats not value..its rubbish really..because value is perceived in the mind..value it not a general laid down fact..its personal opinion based on a value concept of that person...there isn't such a thing as a horse being value per se or it would never be the price it is..as we would all agree it was too big and it would shorten by the fact we all would back it
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Agreed.

All about opinions in this game.
 
ok Slim

G..you were saying there is not many fast 2yo races ...then same evening one pops up..did you spot this one last night at Newbury?

1. Twin Sails................98
2. John Splendid...........97
3. House Of Commons...90

All 3 were FTO..the second and third will need to meet a pretty smart horse in a maiden to get beat NTO would hope
 
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EC1 said:
ok Slim

G..you were saying there is not many fast 2yo races ...then same evening one pops up..did you spot this one last night at Newbury?

1. Twin Sails................98
2. John Splendid...........97
3. House Of Commons...90

All 3 were FTO..the second and third will need to meet a pretty smart horse in a maiden to get beat NTO would hope
Click to expand...

What 2yo do you like for Ascot?
 
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