Daily picks.

[gigilo]

first 3 finish well clear..a decent race..time will be interesting

Best 7f race for 2yr olds so far will write it up at some point,times are a bit confusing over the 3 days as they've been watering so some strangely good times like yesterday by solar flair which makes him look a 90+ horse maybe even better.Then today the group 3 run around the same time can only taske from that even though ground is supposedly quicker was slightly slower today,if that's the case then the 2yr old race looks very good..

 

[gigilo]

Newmarket Result
27 Jun 2015
1:45 » TANGENT OFFICE FURNITURE SUPPORTING THE AHT MAIDEN STAKES (PLUS 10 RACE)
(Class 4) (2yo) 7f July Good To Firm
£4,528.30, £1,347.50, £673.40, £336.70

WATCH RACE - 25p
RESULTRATE RACE
Show all comments in runningShow all pedigrees
HORSE/SP AGE WGT TRAINER/JOCKEY OR TS RPR RATED

1 8 Ibn Malik (IRE) 11/1 2 9-5 Charles Hills — — —
Dane O'Neill


« 2 13 ¾ Comicas (USA) 6/1 2 9-5 Charlie Appleby — — —
James McDonald


« 3 1 1 John Splendid (IRE) 6/4F 2 9-5 Brian Meehan — — —
Hayley Turner


4 4 3¼ Under Attack (IRE) 33/1 2 9-5 Sir Michael Stoute — — —
Stevie Donohoe


5 2 1½ Masarzain (IRE) 10/1 2 9-5 B W Hills — — —
Andrea Atzeni


6 3 1¼ Et Toi (IRE) 33/1 2 9-2 Brian Meehan — — —
Ryan Clark3


7 6 1½ Snan (IRE) 9/1 2 9-5 Richard Hannon — — —
Frankie Dettori


8 9 ½ Albe Back 16/1 2 9-5 Richard Hannon — — —
Richard Hughes


9 5 4 Strathearn (IRE) 16/1 2 9-5 Michael Bell — — —
Jamie Spencer


10 12 5 Ubla (IRE) 20/1 2 9-5 Hugo Palmer — — —
Harry Bentley


11 10 10 Highly Prized 7/2 2 9-5 Lady Cecil — — —
Ryan Moore


« 12 7 ¾ Resonator 66/1 2 9-5 Peter Chapple-Hyam — — —
Shane Kelly


12 ran TIME 1m 24.62s (slow by 1.82s)



Ibn malik

Decent looking time over the 3days at Newmarket especially for 2yrold on debut,there has been watered ground over the three days not much but enough that it looked to have made the track a little slower today as the criterion was slower than solar flairs impressive win the day before,althouugh that horse could yet prove grou class as well.As always when it gets to this stage of the season yiu gets lots of 2yr old races that have similar times so you have lots of horses that are potentially 90 rated handicappers or l;isted class like the first winner at chester today of dascombes.Idon't keep track of them all as there will be 30-40 horses with similar ability all running against each other so would be too manyraces to put on here but will mention this one as the winner could be group class,the winning time today only 1.25 slower than markaz winning off 107 but the 2yr old ibn malik carrying 11 pound more,markaz also won by 1 3/4ls from hors de combat so the time looks even better and this will set the benchmark for at least the near future which probably won't be that long as july will start throwing out more times like this..He's related to all sorts of winners over all sorts of trips so a very interesting runner,could be anything.

 

[EC1]

Best 7f race for 2yr olds so far will write it up at some point,times are a bit confusing over the 3 days as they've been watering so some strangely good times like yesterday by solar flair which makes him look a 90+ horse maybe even better.Then today the group 3 run around the same time can only taske from that even though ground is supposedly quicker was slightly slower today,if that's the case then the 2yr old race looks very good..

Just done the sectionals..very strong maiden..one of the best i've seen for a while. These are the marked up Speed figures..bearing in mind that Ibn Malik recorded a 112 without any mark up. Figures include wfa.

27/06/15
Pace	SF	HORSE
Fair	114	IBN MALIK
Slow	87	GOSPEL CHOIR
Fair/slow	95	KATIE'S DIAMOND
Fair	102	MARKAZ
Slow	71	SOUND REFLECTION
Sound	95	MASTER OF THE WORLD
Fair	72	ANGEL VISION
Going:	10lbs fast	Good (Good/Firm places)

<tbody>
[TD="colspan: 2"] Newmarket July
[/TD]

</tbody>

First 4 ratings in maiden race.

114 IBN MALIK
113 COMICAS
109 JOHN SPLENDID
101 UNDER ATTACK

 

[gigilo]

Doncaster Result
27 Jun 2015
« 8:45 » QUADRO SERVICES PRECAST CONCRETE & MODULAR INSTALLATION HANDICAP
(Class 4) (0-85, 4yo+) 7f Good To Firm
£4,851.75, £1,443.75, £721.50, £360.75


HORSE/SP AGE WGT TRAINER/JOCKEY OR TS RPR RATED

« 1 8 Smart Salute 6/1 4 9-0 b Ed Walker 75 — —
Antonio Fresu


« 2 7 hd Victoire De Lyphar (IRE) 12/1 8 8-13 eb Ruth Carr 74 — —
James Sullivan


« 3 5 ¾ Best Kept 7/4F 4 8-10 Roger Varian 71 — —
Graham Lee


« 4 1 1¼ Funding Deficit (IRE) 4/1 5 8-12 h Jim Goldie 73 — —
Fergal Lynch


« 5 2 2 Showboating (IRE) 7/1 7 9-2 John Balding 80 — —
Shane Gray3


« 6 6 hd Postscript (IRE) 7/1 7 9-4 Richard Fahey 82 — —
Jack Garritty3


« 7 4 1¾ Guaracha 33/1 4 8-7 p Clive Brittain 68 — —
Sam Hitchcott


« 8 3 1¼ Big Storm Coming 16/1 5 8-11 Ruth Carr 75 — —
Jacob Butterfield3


« 9 9 3 Whozthecat (IRE) 12/1 8 9-5 b Declan Carroll 80 — —
David Allan


9 ran TIME 1m 24.82s (slow by 1.52s)

Victoire de lyphar

Unlucky loser the 8yr old,the winner coming away from standside and pushing out victoire de lyphar costing him a couple of lengths plus jock having whip in wrong hand costing him race unable to straighten him in time,had strted the season on a mark of 83 ran well in two races third off 80 and 78 then back out of form and dropped to a mark of 74 tonight.This mark of 74 is lowest mark since july 2013 in 55 races and last season still managed to reach a mark of 90 even finished second off that mark to rene mathis,last season won off 75 then won 3 on the bounce when hitting form,tonight was very kken with blinkers on actually think if there had been even more pace on he would've won easily.The blinkers havn't been on since 2013 so obviously has not been putting it all in,think they will be left on for next run and he hopefully will prove how unlucky he's been as he obviously retains ability and is well handicapped,ruth carr gets all these older horses to run back to their best Dubai dynamo another she keeps sweet..

 

[gigilo]

Goodwood Result
02 May 2015
« 2:50 » BETFRED "GOALS GALORE EXTRA" (HANDICAP)
(Class 2) (0-100, 4yo+) 7f Good
£32,345.00, £9,625.00, £4,810.00, £2,405.00


Show all comments in runningShow all pedigrees
HORSE/SP AGE WGT TRAINER/JOCKEY OR TS RPR

« 1 9 Fiftyshadesofgrey (IRE) 8/1 4 8-7over weight2 George Baker 86 * *
Franny Norton


« 2 12 1¼ Pastoral Player 11/1 8 8-1 Hughie Morrison 87 * *
Charlie Bennett7


« 3 10 nk Highland Colori (IRE) 14/1 7 9-7 Andrew Balding 100 * *
David Probert


« 4 1 ¾ Brownsea Brink 13/2F 5 8-12 Richard Hannon 91 * *
Sean Levey


« 5 8 hd Emell 8/1 5 9-12 b Richard Hannon 105 * *
Kieran O'Neill


« 6 5 ½ Dornoch (USA) 16/1 4 9-0 Robert Cowell 93 * *
Frederik Tylicki


« 7 6 1¼ Majestic Moon (IRE) 8/1 5 9-5 John Gallagher 98 * *
Tom Queally


« 8 2 nse Red Refraction (IRE) 7/1 5 8-7 Richard Hannon 93 * *
Tom Marquand7


« 9 7 nk Bertiewhittle 8/1 7 9-3 David Barron 96 * *
Graham Gibbons


« 10 4 ¾ Outer Space 20/1 4 8-9 Jamie Osborne 88 * *
William Twiston-Davies


« 11 3 7 Mezzotint (IRE) 16/1 6 8-7 Stuart Williams 86 * *
Harry Bentley


« 12 11 3 Red Avenger (USA) 7/1 5 9-4 p Ed Dunlop 97 * *
Adam Kirby


12 ran TIME 1m 25.01s (slow by 1.01s)

Emell


Emell hacking up in this race stopped numerous times throughout the final 2fs a classic unlucky run at goodwood,didn't look well handicapped off 105 but won so easily at haydock in first time blinkers it looked like that had broght him back to best and backed up by todays race.Off 105 obviously will take some doing to win these competituive handicaps,but last season was runner up to bow creek in the celebration mile with 112 horses rated in behind,i can see him going for other handicaps but with the blinkers combination and apparent liking for goodwood think he'll be back here over coming months..

Bunbury cup 33/1 skybet.corals,sportsbook

Unlucky in the above then 5th in the vioctoria cup when again stopped three times in the lsst 2fs eventually finishing 4ls behind speculastive bid but probably should've only been 2ls,he's been dropped a pound since and speculative bid has gone up 10 has proved that justifiable by running well in the hunt cup off 104 so is an improving horse and is on my to follows from when he won on the aw.Since the Victoria run emell has been running in group 3 races a 5th to cable bay and top notch tonto perfectly respectable runs and his sps havn't reflected his chances as gone off 10/1,8/1 and 11/1 today slightly disappointing by distance beaten today but realistically was never going to win.
This does look a better race than the Victoria cup but the 33/1 looks a very decent price based on recent sps and weight turnarunds and luck in running,i will be looking out for bigger prices as well but would be amazed if there were bigger,also if the ground was to have a little juice just to keep it in the good side then this would increase his chances and may hinder a few at the head of the market mainly fast ground horses.I can a;so see segal or taylor putting up even at current 33s and anyone with any idea of prices would see he is obviously overpriced based on those handicap runs and group 3 run at haydock,infact if it weren't for bad luck he would now be on a mark of 109/110.There are more likely winners but the price is big based on most of his runs this season,hopefully someone will go 40s yet as well.

 

[SlimChance]

Bunbury cup 33/1 skybet.corals,sportsbook

Unlucky in the above then 5th in the vioctoria cup when again stopped three times in the lsst 2fs eventually finishing 4ls behind speculastive bid but probably should've only been 2ls,he's been dropped a pound since and speculative bid has gone up 10 has proved that justifiable by running well in the hunt cup off 104 so is an improving horse and is on my to follows from when he won on the aw.Since the Victoria run emell has been running in group 3 races a 5th to cable bay and top notch tonto perfectly respectable runs and his sps havn't reflected his chances as gone off 10/1,8/1 and 11/1 today slightly disappointing by distance beaten today but realistically was never going to win.
This does look a better race than the Victoria cup but the 33/1 looks a very decent price based on recent sps and weight turnarunds and luck in running,i will be looking out for bigger prices as well but would be amazed if there were bigger,also if the ground was to have a little juice just to keep it in the good side then this would increase his chances and may hinder a few at the head of the market mainly fast ground horses.I can a;so see segal or taylor putting up even at current 33s and anyone with any idea of prices would see he is obviously overpriced based on those handicap runs and group 3 run at haydock,infact if it weren't for bad luck he would now be on a mark of 109/110.There are more likely winners but the price is big based on most of his runs this season,hopefully someone will go 40s yet as well.

Quality.

 

[gigilo]

Curragh (IRE) Result
28 Jun 2015
« 5:00 » TOTE ROCKINGHAM HANDICAP
(3yo+) 5f Good
£46,511.63, £14,728.68, £6,976.74, £2,325.58, £1,550.39, £775.
HORSE/SP AGE WGT TRAINER/JOCKEY OR TS RPR RATED

« 1 24 Foxy Forever (IRE) 20/1 5 8-10 b1 Michael Wigham 89 — —
Colm O'Donoghue


« 2 23 2¼ Discussiontofollow (IRE) 6/1F 5 9-4 Mike Murphy 97 — —
Shane Kelly


« 3 22 hd Desert Law (IRE) 8/1 7 9-4 Paul Midgley 97 — —
Martin Lane


« 4 9 2¾ Ardhoomey (IRE) 14/1 3 9-2 G M Lyons 101 — —
Colin Keane


« 5 10 hd Caspian Prince (IRE) 20/1 6 9-12 ht Tony Carroll 105 — —
Joseph O'Brien


« 6 6 nse Dikta Del Mar (SPA) 16/1 3 8-11 T Hogan 96 — —
Ben Curtis


« 7 19 nk In Salutem 14/1 5 8-8 t K J Condon 87 — —
Shane Foley


« 8 16 nk Ostatnia (IRE) 20/1 3 8-4over weight5 v W McCreery 89 — —
Leigh Roche


« 9 20 ¾ Master Speaker (IRE) 8/1 5 8-13 t Martin Hassett 92 — —
Ryan Moore


« 10 1 nk Your Pal Tal 50/1 5 7-12over weight2 J F Levins 84 — —
Donagh O'Connor7


« 11 11 hd Kimbay (IRE) 16/1 5 8-5 Noel Lawlor 84 — —
Rory Cleary


« 12 7 hd Monumental Man 20/1 6 8-12 p James Unett 91 — —
David Probert


« 13 14 hd Zaindera (IRE) 50/1 4 7-13over weight1over weight6 v1 T G McCourt 83 — —
Gary Phillips5


« 14 4 ¾ My Good Brother (IRE) 25/1 6 8-12 v T G McCourt 96 — —
Robbie Downey5


« 15 2 1¼ Captain Cullen (IRE) 20/1 6 8-7 h Joseph Anthony Murray 86 — —
Chris Hayes


« 16 18 ½ Zalty (FR) 7/1 5 8-11 b David Marnane 93 — —
Connor King3


« 17 5 shd Bubbly Bellini (IRE) 16/1 8 9-6 p Adrian McGuinness 99 — —
Declan McDonogh


« 18 3 hd Russian Soul (IRE) 16/1 7 9-4 b M Halford 102 — —
Sean Corby5


« 19 17 3¾ Tylery Wonder (IRE) 25/1 5 8-4 eb W McCreery 83 — —
N G McCullagh


« 20 21 ½ Chiclet (IRE) 10/1 4 8-11 Tracey Collins 90 — —
Pat Smullen


« 21 13 3 Prince Connoisseur (IRE) 14/1 4 8-8over weight2 b John James Feane 87 — —
F M Berry


21 ran TIME 57.77s (fast by 1.03s)


Foxy forever

An advantage to be drawn high but the form looks very decent for such a competitive race,paul midgley has got desert law back to running well in is well in excess of 100+ horse
in this form on decent ground and discussiontofollow similarly still has only 12 lifetime runs and progressive foxy forever beating them by over 2ls making all from the 24 draw.The form looks even better with the 4th ardhoomey recent second to line of reason another 2 and 3/4ls behind,foxy forever a 5yr old only 12 lifetime and only 7 of them on the turf it maybe the gelding needs to dominate similarly but looks well handicapped with rise was actually going away again at finish as well,his entrys will be interesting especially at cwrtain tracks where draws are more significant..

 

[SlimChance]

Curragh (IRE) Result
28 Jun 2015
« 5:00 » TOTE ROCKINGHAM HANDICAP
(3yo+) 5f Good
£46,511.63, £14,728.68, £6,976.74, £2,325.58, £1,550.39, £775.
HORSE/SP AGE WGT TRAINER/JOCKEY OR TS RPR RATED

« 1 24 Foxy Forever (IRE) 20/1 5 8-10 b1 Michael Wigham 89 — —
Colm O'Donoghue


« 2 23 2¼ Discussiontofollow (IRE) 6/1F 5 9-4 Mike Murphy 97 — —
Shane Kelly


« 3 22 hd Desert Law (IRE) 8/1 7 9-4 Paul Midgley 97 — —
Martin Lane


« 4 9 2¾ Ardhoomey (IRE) 14/1 3 9-2 G M Lyons 101 — —
Colin Keane


« 5 10 hd Caspian Prince (IRE) 20/1 6 9-12 ht Tony Carroll 105 — —
Joseph O'Brien


« 6 6 nse Dikta Del Mar (SPA) 16/1 3 8-11 T Hogan 96 — —
Ben Curtis


« 7 19 nk In Salutem 14/1 5 8-8 t K J Condon 87 — —
Shane Foley


« 8 16 nk Ostatnia (IRE) 20/1 3 8-4over weight5 v W McCreery 89 — —
Leigh Roche


« 9 20 ¾ Master Speaker (IRE) 8/1 5 8-13 t Martin Hassett 92 — —
Ryan Moore


« 10 1 nk Your Pal Tal 50/1 5 7-12over weight2 J F Levins 84 — —
Donagh O'Connor7


« 11 11 hd Kimbay (IRE) 16/1 5 8-5 Noel Lawlor 84 — —
Rory Cleary


« 12 7 hd Monumental Man 20/1 6 8-12 p James Unett 91 — —
David Probert


« 13 14 hd Zaindera (IRE) 50/1 4 7-13over weight1over weight6 v1 T G McCourt 83 — —
Gary Phillips5


« 14 4 ¾ My Good Brother (IRE) 25/1 6 8-12 v T G McCourt 96 — —
Robbie Downey5


« 15 2 1¼ Captain Cullen (IRE) 20/1 6 8-7 h Joseph Anthony Murray 86 — —
Chris Hayes


« 16 18 ½ Zalty (FR) 7/1 5 8-11 b David Marnane 93 — —
Connor King3


« 17 5 shd Bubbly Bellini (IRE) 16/1 8 9-6 p Adrian McGuinness 99 — —
Declan McDonogh


« 18 3 hd Russian Soul (IRE) 16/1 7 9-4 b M Halford 102 — —
Sean Corby5


« 19 17 3¾ Tylery Wonder (IRE) 25/1 5 8-4 eb W McCreery 83 — —
N G McCullagh


« 20 21 ½ Chiclet (IRE) 10/1 4 8-11 Tracey Collins 90 — —
Pat Smullen


« 21 13 3 Prince Connoisseur (IRE) 14/1 4 8-8over weight2 b John James Feane 87 — —
F M Berry


21 ran TIME 57.77s (fast by 1.03s)


Foxy forever

An advantage to be drawn high but the form looks very decent for such a competitive race,paul midgley has got desert law back to running well in is well in excess of 100+ horse
in this form on decent ground and discussiontofollow similarly still has only 12 lifetime runs and progressive foxy forever beating them by over 2ls making all from the 24 draw.The form looks even better with the 4th ardhoomey recent second to line of reason another 2 and 3/4ls behind,foxy forever a 5yr old only 12 lifetime and only 7 of them on the turf it maybe the gelding needs to dominate similarly but looks well handicapped with rise was actually going away again at finish as well,his entrys will be interesting especially at cwrtain tracks where draws are more significant..

This was a jaw dropping run. It was obvious 2f out this was over. You would have to think the market might throw this run out next time out. Nothing else got into it and namely the 3rd and others where punted like well handicapped horses. This race was 6/1 the field which happens maybe twice a year at the Curragh so for a horse to have the race to bed 2f out was insane.

 

[Grey]

When the ground gets fast at the Curragh the stands rail is the place to be. The first three were drawn 24,23 and 22 in a 24-runner field. There have often been similar results, eg http://www.irishracing.com/result?prn=Curragh&prc=084&prd=201306291645
or
http://www.irishracing.com/result?prn=Curragh&prc=084&prd=201106261440

 

[SlimChance]

Fair point Grey but it looks a hard horse for the handicapper to revise the winners mark. He might be overly lenient.

 

[gigilo]

Doncaster Result
06 Jun 2015
« 5:10 » BET NOW WITH THE LADBROKES APP HANDICAP
(Class 3) (0-90, 4yo+) 7f Good To Firm
£8,409.70, £2,502.50, £1,250.60, £625.30

HORSE/SP AGE WGT TRAINER/JOCKEY OR TS RPR

« 1 2 Free Code (IRE) 9/4F 4 9-7 David Barron 89 * * »
Graham Gibbons


« 2 10 nse Above The Rest (IRE) 14/1 4 8-11 Timothy Jarvis 84 * *
Jordan Vaughan5


« 3 8 2¼ Khelman (IRE) 6/1 5 9-3 Richard Fahey 85 * *
George Chaloner


« 4 9 1¼ Fray 12/1 4 8-13 Jim Goldie 81 * * »
Fergal Lynch


« 5 7 nk Intisaab 6/1 4 9-0 David O'Meara 82 * * »
Sam James


« 6 5 6 Augusta Ada 16/1 4 9-0 Ollie Pears 82 * *
Paul Hanagan


« 7 1 2¾ See The Storm 33/1 7 8-9 Ian Williams 77 * * »
Franny Norton


« 8 6 ¾ Victoire De Lyphar (IRE) 6/1 8 8-8 e/s Ruth Carr 76 * * »
James Sullivan


« 9 11 ½ Big Storm Coming 9/1 5 8-6 Ruth Carr 77 * * »
Jacob Butterfield3


« 10 3 3¼ Steel Train (FR) 8/1 4 9-2 David O'Meara 87 * *
Shelley Birkett3


10 ran TIME 1m 27.90s (slow by 4.60s)

August ada

August ada had looked progressive sprinter last season on fast ground beating misplaced fortune off 77 at ponte easily on gd/fm ground,so far this season she'run on slower ground at wetherby was a big eyecacther in above race when hacking up with 2furlongs to go heavily eased then today missed the break but again running on overwatered ground and chance was gone.I'd be willing to forgive tofdays run actually thought she would be a bet today,but books opened 6-7/1 half the price I would've been willing to take and the ground was overwatered anuyway to what she needs,todays winning time was almost a second and a half slower than when she won over c/d as 3yr old.She should now become value,the Donny run poijted to her coming into form,the only reason she stopped so quickly there was the ground was not gd/fm there either and losing distance was massively exaggerate,she's an interesting runner for the summer at hopefully biger prices over next few runs!!!

 

[gigilo]

When the ground gets fast at the Curragh the stands rail is the place to be. The first three were drawn 24,23 and 22 in a 24-runner field. There have often been similar results, eg http://www.irishracing.com/result?prn=Curragh&prc=084&prd=201306291645
or
http://www.irishracing.com/result?prn=Curragh&prc=084&prd=201106261440

The draw may have been an advantage but the 3 best horses in the race filled those places,the second was still well in on old form and won the dash and is capable of even better over 5fs on fsst ground and the third is progressive just carrying on from last season,the fact Caspian [prince was in the centre and still came 5th after looking exposed
might be a pointer that the draw advantage wasn't as blatant as first appears..

 

[EC1]

The draw there does seem to favour high draws. Just looking at some past results gives an indication....... Might be a system here.

28/6/15
21 runner 6f..winner foxy forever
first 7 home....24..23..22...9..10...6..19

14/9/14
6f handicap..20 runners won by watchable
first 7 home drawn...19..16..15..9..20...4...21
the horse drawn 4 ..kernoff...won 2 races later

6.5f maiden...29 runners won by midterm break
first 7 home drawn...16..29..14...15...3...26...23
the horse drawn 3...captain my captain...won a handicap by 3+ lengths at 13/2

7/6/14
6f handicap won by Bainne..15 runners
first 7 home...11..15...13...7...2..6..5

28/6/14
6f..23 runners
first 7 home....18...7...21...25...1...6..3
no winners from low drawn nto

15/6/13
6f maiden..19 runners
first 7 home...8..13..5..14..10...17...19
horse drawn 5..diamond stilettos..won easy next time 9/4

15/9/13
6f handicap..23 runners
first 7 home...4..7..6...23...8..21...12
nothing to report

only 7 races..but indications are there that high drawns hold an advantage..and it may be that the lone low drawn horse is worth noting

 

[gigilo]

Think those figures even show the bias is very minimal and how much better the 1,2,3 were on sunday,I certainly wouldn't want to be backing anything from a high draw unless I knew it had some of the best form in the race,the draw didn't affect sundays result and watchable would've been thrown in so then you're left with 2 races of lows winning and 3 wioth highs.It actually looks on those results the advantage is probably a lot less than most punters would think..

 

[EC1]

Think those figures even show the bias is very minimal and how much better the 1,2,3 were on sunday,I certainly wouldn't want to be backing anything from a high draw unless I knew it had some of the best form in the race,the draw didn't affect sundays result and watchable would've been thrown in so then you're left with 2 races of lows winning and 3 wioth highs.It actually looks on those results the advantage is probably a lot less than most punters would think..

have taken sameish race each year for ease of finding..good or faster based on time

24/6/10 6f handicap - 25 runners
draw = 25....23...8...8..7...9...6...10
winner won by 5 lengths

28/6/09 6.5 f handicap - 19 runners
draw = 18...21...6...13...22...14...17
3 non runners hence 22 draw

29/06/08 6f handicap - 22 runners
draw = 22...19...16...11..12....6...20

2/7/06 6.5f handicap - 25 runners
draw = 9...21...18...17...25...24...3

26/6/05 6.5f handicap - 21 runners
draw = 2..3..21...6..4..13...1

27/6/04 6.5f handicap - 19 runners
draw = 17...1...12...6...13...18...2

adding these to those in post above

horses gaining 1234 finish
bottom half of draw = 18 placings
top half of draw = 32 placings

Horses gaining 12 finish
bottom half of draw = 7 placings
top half of draw = 17 placings

 

[gigilo]

The more I look at some of the races there the more I think there's very little bias at all,just happens the best horses have been drawn nearer the rail which as at most trtacks like musselburugh Hamilton etc may give you a slight advantage,line of reason won from a high drsw there last year but was also absolutely cucked in off 89 now rated 104.Dashwood was drawn 1 drawn 7-8ls off the pace gets beat 2ls coming standside and its rating has dropped 9 pound since,all sundays result did was confirm the form plus an extra well handicapped horse on foxy forever...It maybe there's an advantage over 5fs but over 6fs the way the races have finished in a heap you could actually conclude from watching when line of reason won the lows threw their advantage away,the angle would be to find something that's not drawn high at a massive price completely against the trend over 6fs..

 

[EC1]

the draw at many tracks in Ireland is something that you don't read much about..we got stats coming out our ears over here for our tracks..its maybe an area thats worth studying just on its own as i doubt many have done any research on it

interesting..maybe worth a week or so of collecting data

 

[EC1]

just to add..going back to sundays race..probably a better ..if not the best...way of measuring any percieved advantage

the average beaten distance of each horse was 7.89 lengths...

draw 1-7 = 8.46 lengths
draw 9 -17 = 9.18 lengths
draw 18+ = 6.03 lenths

i think that shows an edge for being drawn high over low..and large disadvantage for being drawn in the middle tbh. this would put the 4th 5th & 6th...3 lengths closer to the winner than they finished...Ardhoomey + dikta del mar both being 3yo's could be worth watching

 

[gigilo]

I don't even bet over there so doesn't really interest me it was by complete chance I caught the sprint on sunday and I remember line of reasons race last year when dashwood ran well from the 1 draw in same race,as soon as I saw that race I discounted ever betting there as it only got beat 2ls yet hasn't won a race since.It's just typical of most tracks today all the draw bias that existed at many tracks have totally disappeared,the days of winning by backing lows or highs at any tracks have generally disappeared infact most tracks they don't even race on the strips that used to be best.There used to be golden highways at Yarmouth,donny,Newcastle all gone even sandown,hamilton the stalls used to be on the otherside yet now when there'a big field they never go over there makes absolutely no sense the days of winning on draws went 20 years go mainly due to overwatering.Very rarely if you can spot the grounds going to be very quick,you can risk backing the highs at somewhere like Donny meshardals win there good example there it still exists on right griund,but you rarely get the right conditions or the jocks are complexly braindead.There was a good example on Friday at Newcastle when the 3yr old won the 5f sprint all aged handicap and ended up on the rail,as soon as the 6f races were run the next day they came back up the middle yet all the pace was with the highs and the ground was even faster.Hardly worth looking at draws anymore unless you get the exact ground you want and that hardly ever happens in the summer,it's probably better backing on softer ground now as opposed to faster ground and there's certainly more value..

 

[Lard]

Reckon some of the draws are still undervalued even the generally well known ones.

Bev 5f, Chester 5f etc

Pipers Note Bev race tricast paid £160+ for 2-3-1 and that included the fav.

 

[gigilo]

Best 7f race for 2yr olds so far will write it up at some point,times are a bit confusing over the 3 days as they've been watering so some strangely good times like yesterday by solar flair which makes him look a 90+ horse:lol::lol: maybe even better.Then today the group 3 run around the same time can only taske from that even though ground is supposedly quicker was slightly slower today,if that's the case then the 2yr old race looks very good..

 

[EC1]

ok Slim

G..you were saying there is not many fast 2yo races ...then same evening one pops up..did you spot this one last night at Newbury?

1. Twin Sails................98
2. John Splendid...........97
3. House Of Commons...90

All 3 were FTO..the second and third will need to meet a pretty smart horse in a maiden to get beat NTO would hope

4th won at ascot earlier at 12/1..house of commons beat in what looks a hot one at newmarket

 

[gigilo]

Ascot Result
11 Jul 2015
2:10 » TOTESCOOP6 HERITAGE HANDICAP
(Class 2) (3yo+) 5f Good To Firm
£62,250.00, £18,640.00, £9,320.00, £4,660.00, £2,330.00, £1,170.00
HORSE/SP AGE WGT TRAINER/JOCKEY OR TS RPR

« 1 6 Double Up 7/1 4 9-2 t Roger Varian 98 * *
Frederik Tylicki


« 2 17 ½ Taajub (IRE) 16/1 8 8-1 Peter Crate 83 * *
Jimmy Quinn


« 3 18 ½ Desert Law (IRE) 10/1 7 9-3 Paul Midgley 99 * *
Oisin Murphy


« 4 12 ¾ Robot Boy (IRE) 10/1 5 9-5 David Barron 106 * *
Rob Hornby5


« 5 16 nse Discussiontofollow (IRE) 6/1F 5 9-4 Mike Murphy 100 * *
Shane Kelly


« 6 7 ½ Barnet Fair 8/1 7 8-1 David Nicholls 90 * *
Edward Greatrex7


« 7 9 nse Secretinthepark 12/1 5 8-11 p Robert Cowell 93 * *
Martin Harley


« 8 13 ½ Humidor (IRE) 14/1 8 9-4 George Baker 100 * *
William Buick


« 9 8 ½ Meadway 14/1 4 8-10 Bryan Smart 92 * *
Tom Queally


« 10 5 nse Perfect Muse 20/1 5 8-2 Clive Cox 87 * *
Cam Hardie3


« 11 1 1½ B Fifty Two (IRE) 20/1 6 9-2 t Charles Hills 98 * *
Olivier Peslier


« 12 2 ½ Indescribable (IRE) 20/1 3 8-2 Mark Johnston 89 * *
Andrew Elliott


« 13 15 nk Lady Gibraltar 20/1 6 8-4 Timothy Jarvis 91 * *
Jordan Vaughan5


« 14 4 2¼ Gamesome (FR) 7/1 4 9-3 b1 Olly Stevens 99 * *
Andrea Atzeni


« 15 10 nk Son Of Africa 12/1 3 9-2 Henry Candy 103 * *
Chad Schofield


« 16 3 hd Pearl Acclaim (IRE) 25/1 5 8-8 David Nicholls 90 * *
Paul Quinn


« 17 14 ¾ Kingsgate Choice (IRE) 20/1 8 9-4 Ed de Giles 100 * *
William Twiston-Davies


« 18 11 7 Normal Equilibrium 33/1 5 8-13 Robert Cowell 95 * *
Sean Levey


18 ran TIME 1m 0.06s (slow by 0.76s

Taajub

A decent race and strong handicap form,as mentioned from the curragh race that form looked vey good that foxy forever won and was again franked today by desert law and discussiontofollow all the pace was up the centre they were [probably 3-4ls down at one point with very little pace standsuide so they've all had to finish from off the pace and done wellagainst the pace bias,robot boy discussiontofollow and desertt law all doing well.Probably discussiontofollow and taajub the worst effected,taajub was the biggest eyecatcher as nearest at finish running off just a mark of 83 he hasn't won since july 2012 unbelievably when winning opff 92 over this c/d.Over the last few seasons has become unbackable has placed a few times in respectable races but his win record of just 2/37 ewith a horse of hios ability just shows how difficult he is to catch,this run though was even better than his 2012 form and anything since he couldn't have produced it in a stronger handicap.He does run well at this track,i would imagine he will be back here in the next few months there are meetings in august and September if he produces this form again no reason why he won't break his 3 year barren spell.Wouldn't want to take stupid prices but with guaranteed pace he could still win at a decent price,he's [probably one of those horses that needs staying on better clas races as he could take 2/3 grade drops compared to this race and the value will be when he contests the better grade 2/3s..

 

[gigilo]

15:50 GOODWOOD, 2 AUG 2014
6f

32Red Cup (Stewards' Cup) (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) (3YO plus)
Winner £62,250 - 24 ran Good to Firm

Weighed In
ResultFuture Form
Pos Dist. Silk Cloth / Horse Name (Draw) SP Age / Wt Jockey / Trainer OR
1
White, pink epaulets 25. INTRINSIC (22)ATR Tracker 6/1 2Fav 4 8 - 11
R Hughes
R M H Cowell
95
well placed tracking leaders, headway 2f out, went 2nd 1f out, ridden upsides disputing lead when veered left to near side 110 yards out, soon straightened and quickened to lead final 50 yards, won going away
2
1 Black and yellow diamonds, black sleeves, yellow cap 7. NINJAGO (15)ATR Tracker 10/1 4 9 - 5
R L Moore
R Hannon
103
held up towards rear, good headway over 1f out, strong run under pressure inside final furlong, went 2nd close home, not pace of winner
3
nk Pink, light green cross belts, white sleeves, light green cap 3. ALBEN STAR (IRE) (19)ATR Tracker 8/1 6 9 - 4
George Chaloner (3)
R A Fahey
105
chased leaders, led main group 2f out, ridden to lead overall over 1f out, joined inside final furlong, headed final 50 yards, lost 2nd close home
4
¾ White, red sash, red and white striped cap 5. RUWAIYAN (USA) (8)ATR Tracker 25/1 5 9 - 5p
G Lee
J Tate
103
held up and behind, good headway far side over 1f out, ridden and stayed on under pressure inside final furlong, finished well, not reach leaders
5
nk Royal blue, white epaulets, striped cap 18. MUTHMIR (IRE) (2)ATR Tracker 5/2 Fav 4 9 - 0
(ex6)
Dane O'Neill
W J Haggas
98
steadied start, held up in mid-division, headway halfway, tracking leaders going well 2f out, ridden and kept on same pace inside final furlong
6
½ Dark green, white stripe, sleeves and diamond on cap 17. DISCUSSIONTOFOLLOW (IRE) (23)ATR Tracker 10/1 4 9 - 0
(ex6)
S W Kelly
M Murphy
98
held up towards rear, headway over 1f out, chasing leaders when slightly hampered inside final furlong, ran on, not reach leaders
7
½ Red, white spots, white sleeves, red spots, red cap 10. SIR MAXIMILIAN (IRE) (11)ATR Tracker 25/1 5 9 - 4
(ex6)
S Donohoe
T J Pitt
102
chased leaders, ridden and edged right over 1f out, ran on inside final furlong, not quite pace to challenge
8
1 Light blue, light blue and purple diabolo on sleeves, light blue cap, purple diamond 22. JOEY'S DESTINY (IRE) (20)ATR Tracker 25/1 4 8 - 11
M Dwyer
George Baker
95
held up towards rear, headway over 1f out, stayed on inside final furlong, not reach leaders
9
½ Royal blue, yellow spots, red sleeves 8. HALLELUJAH (14)ATR Tracker 20/1 6 9 - 4t
Hayley Turner
J R Fanshawe
102
well off the pace towards rear, headway over 1f out, ran on inside final furlong, never going pace to reach leaders
10
¾ Royal blue, light blue seams, light blue and royal blue halved sleeves, dark blue cap 11. SEEKING MAGIC (28)ATR Tracker 16/1 6 9 - 3th
A Kirby
C G Cox
101
raced along on near side rail and slight lead overall, hung right to main group 2f out, ridden and headed over 1f out, weakened final 110 yards
11
1 Black and royal blue stripes, black sleeves, royal blue stars, check cap 12. ARNOLD LANE (IRE) (25)ATR Tracker 33/1 5 9 - 2
Craig Williams
M R Channon
100
raced towards near side, chased leaders, edged left over 2f out, ridden and hung right from over 1f out, weakened inside final furlong
12
nk Royal blue 13. HOODNA (IRE) (5)ATR Tracker 12/1 4 9 - 2h
K Fallon
S bin Suroor
100
held up and behind, headway far side over 1f out, one pace and no impression final furlong
13
nk Royal blue, white cap 28. MAR MAR (IRE) (24)ATR Tracker 50/1 4 8 - 10h
Oisin Murphy
S bin Suroor
94
held up, ridden and no impression over 1f out, plugged on same pace final furlong
14
nse White, black chevron, black sleeves, white stars, black cap, white star 4. ASHPAN SAM (21)ATR Tracker 25/1 5 9 - 7
J Fortune
J L Spearing
105
chased leaders, ridden over 1f out, weakening when hampered inside final furlong
15
1 Grey, light blue epaulets, light blue cap 14. CLEAR SPRING (IRE) (7)ATR Tracker 50/1 6 8 - 10
Cam Hardie (5)
J L Spearing
99
chased leaders, ridden over 1f out, weakened inside final furlong
15
dh Red, emerald green triple diamond, armlets and diamond on cap 21. EXPERT (IRE) (27)ATR Tracker 50/1 3 8 - 12
P J Dobbs
R Hannon
100
slowly into stride, off the pace towards rear, never involved
17
1¾ Black, red diamond, diamonds on sleeves, black cap, red diamond 16. FLYMAN (16)ATR Tracker 50/1 4 8 - 9b
Jack Garritty (5)
R A Fahey
98
mid-division, pushed along over 2f out, weakened over 1f out
18
1 Royal blue, maroon stars 26. BORDERLESCOTT (12)ATR Tracker 40/1 12 8 - 11
T P Queally
R Bastiman
95
chased leaders, ridden and weakened over 1f out
19
2½ Light blue, red epaulets, halved sleeves, light blue and red striped cap 2. YORK GLORY (USA) (3)ATR Tracker 33/1 6 9 - 9b
James Doyle
K A Ryan
107
held up towards rear, headway far side and hung right over 1f out, weakened quickly entering final furlong
20
nk Royal blue, yellow stripe, sleeves and cap 24. BARRACUDA BOY (IRE) (6)ATR Tracker 40/1 4 8 - 11v1
R Kingscote
Tom Dascombe
95
chased leaders, ridden 2f out, weakening when hung right over 1f out
21
2¾ ROYAL BLUE, YELLOW stripe and sleeves, WHITE cap 27. BEAR BEHIND (IRE) (4)ATR Tracker 40/1 5 8 - 4
Jenny Powell (7)
Tom Dascombe
95
chased leaders, pushed along over 2f out, ridden well over 1f out, weakened soon after
22
¾ Dark blue, yellow chevron, dark blue sleeves, yellow stars, dark blue cap, yellow stars 23. ZERO MONEY (IRE) (17)ATR Tracker 66/1 8 8 - 11b
J Fanning
Hugo Palmer
95
led main group until 2f out, weakened rapidly over 1f out
23
4½ Black, white seams, white sleeves, black armlets, black cap 9. BLAINE (13)ATR Tracker 33/1 4 9 - 4
(ex6)b
Amy Ryan
K A Ryan
102
always behind and never a factor
24
19 Red, maroon seams and armlets 1. REX IMPERATOR (26)ATR Tracker 16/1 5 9 - 10p
J P O'Brien
W J Haggas
108
never better than mid-division, weakened and behind final 2f

Royal blue, silver striped sleeves, red and royal blue hooped cap 6. SHROPSHIRE (IRE) (18)ATR Tracker Non Runner 103


Maroon and yellow (quartered), halved sleeves, dark blue cap 15. BOOMERANG BOB (IRE) (10)ATR Tracker Non Runner 98


Grey, beige star, grey sleeves, beige stars and stars on cap 19. BALLESTEROS (1)ATR Tracker Non Runner 97


Purple, white spots on sleeves and cap 20. FAIRWAY TO HEAVEN (IRE) (9)ATR Tracker Non Runner 96

Off Time:15:54:36
Winning Time:1m 10.27s
Stewards cup
Ruwaiyayan 25/1 365,victor,lads,corals,hills

Joeys destiny 40/1 victor,ppower,lads,corals

Two runners that ran well in last years stewards cup ruwaiyan travelling far side in last years race didn't get the cleaest of runs and was one of the runners to be nearest finish,he's beens lightly disappointing since although was on the wrongside in the ayr gold cup drawn 1 finishing 6th and recent run in the Wokingham only 9th.It maybe that goodwood is his track with the run above and this season again has beaten zanetto by 2 1/2ls hacking up having also major jack behind as well, that form looks good with zanetto already two close up finishes to huntsmans close this season,the 25/1 seems about right on other track form but his goodwood form he looks to have a decent cchane of hitting the frame at least although he may just be an even slightly bigger price yet.
The other from last years race is joey's destiny,a progressive profile still relatively lightly raced he was 8th in last years race,he caught my eye at the time as I could see he was improving but didn't know if he was good enough to win last years race he was slightly hampered 3 times in last years race and got no run once more as well so did well to finish 8th he could well have been 2-3ls better than this run and battling out the places
.If you go back through his form some of it now looks extremely eyecatching from early last season splitting huntsmans close and discussiontofollow with robot boy in 4th at windsor all of these were improving at the time and the first two are now first and second favs to win this years race.He also went onto win at notts having tatislu behind by 2 1/2ls and giving 10 pound now rated 97 tatislu went off fav for Wokingham.Joeys destiny sits on a mark of 95 potentially still open to improvement he's run well against horses that are almost ten pounds higher than him and have been winning and competing in the best sprints over the last 12 months.The negatives are he didn't run well after the stewards although 7fs and heavy ground could easily have been excuses and athough he hasn't run yet the 40/1 would be value on last years run,there's also the possibility that he will be even bigger prices yet as well..

 

[gigilo]

Ripon Result
18 Jul 2015
« 2:45 » SAILUN TYRES EBF MAIDEN STAKES (PLUS 10 RACE)
(Class 4) (2yo) 5f Good
£5,175.20, £1,540.00, £769.60, £384.80

HORSE/SP AGE WGT TRAINER/JOCKEY OR TS RPR

« 1 12 Ornate 4/6F 2 9-5 William Haggas — * *
Graham Lee


« 2 6 5 Crombay (IRE) 14/1 2 9-0 h1 Tim Easterby 67 * *
David Allan


« 3 4 3¼ Sign Of The Kodiac (IRE) 5/1 2 9-5 James Given 78 * *
Tom Eaves


« 4 2 1½ Cranberry Park (IRE) 100/1 2 9-0 Brian Ellison — * *
Dale Swift


5 1 ½ Rantan (IRE) 7/1 2 9-5 David Barron — * *
Graham Gibbons


« 6 9 hd Young Windsor (IRE) 66/1 2 9-5 Ann Duffield — * *
David Nolan


« 7 13 1 Black Diamond Girl 25/1 2 9-0 Noel Wilson — * *
Fergal Lynch


8 11 ½ North Spirit (IRE) 12/1 2 9-5 Keith Dalgleish — * *
Phillip Makin


9 5 1 Wizardess 20/1 2 9-0 Ann Duffield — * *
P J McDonald


« 10 10 hd Selina Kyle 50/1 2 9-0 David O'Meara — * *
Sam James


« 11 3 2¾ Carbutt's Ridge (IRE) 25/1 2 9-5 K R Burke — * *
Ben Curtis


« 12 8 4 Dougal Magic (IRE) 40/1 2 9-5 Micky Hammond — * *
Michael Stainton


« 13 7 24 Tontito (IRE) 150/1 2 9-5 v1 Nigel Tinkler 48 * *
Tom Queally


13 ran TIME 57.80s (fast by 0.20s)

Ornate

Probably one of the most impressive performances of the season visually and on the clock this half brother to saayeer,this was no more than a piece of work and was probably good for another 4-5lengths and still the finishing time was very quick I can't find to many races run quicker over this c/d and considering how easily he won I doubt hardly anything has wo more impressively at the track.Crombay appears to hold the form down slightly,but was in first time hood and really the winner could've been 10ls better than him anyweay,crombay sits on a mark of 67,i think this mark with the hood may turn out to be ok so that will be interesting as well as he finished clear of sign of the kodiac, sign of the zodiac finished 11th in Coventry recent third in maiden this insignificant little maiden may get overlloked.
.Hopefully the handicapper will take the seconds rating as the marker and put him in around 90 that would look extremely generous to me,i've looked at a few times run at ripon over the last few seasons and only similar time was the win by Silvanus off 90 in .19 quicker time n older handicap.With the ease of ornates win I would make this one of the best speedfigures of the season especially when you consider how much you could guesstimate off winning time.The negatives are times on this track,quite often horses winning here don't repeat the form elsewhere and secondly the haggass horses generally obverbet,I wasn't going to add anymore to follows with all the night racing as so busy but this was so impressive and on the clock with potential to get underrated had to spend 5 mins on here and give him a mention.The 2yr old form is in general seems to be getting let down ,i think he could be one of the newer ones to take them on and hopefully some decent prices,i wouldn't be surprised if the handicappers generous he might just pop up in a nursery before going onto group races..