Daily picks.

Southwell (AW) Result
10 Jan 2016
« 3:10 » DAILY UNIBET EARLY PRICES FROM 9AM SELLING STAKES
(Class 6) (4yo+) 6f Standard
£2,587.60, £770.00, £384.80, £192.40
RESULTRATE RACE
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HORSE/SP AGE WGT TRAINER/JOCKEY OR TS RPR

« 1 4 Jacob's Pillow EvensF 5 9-6 p Michael Appleby 71 * *
Andrew Mullen


« 2 3 5 Spitfire 6/1 11 9-6 t J R Jenkins 64 * *
Joe Fanning


« 3 5 3¾ Molly Approve (IRE) 66/1 4 8-12over weight3 Tony Coyle 52 * *
Dougie Costello


« 4 1 ½ Pull The Pin (IRE) 25/1 7 9-0 tb Heather Dalton 55 * *
Saleem Golam


« 5 2 ½ Abi Scarlet (IRE) 7/4 7 9-1 b Scott Dixon 73 * *
Kieran O'Neill


« 6 6 1½ Plunder 66/1 6 9-0 Alan Berry 46 * *
Jack Garritty


6 ran TIME 1m 15.65s (slow by 1.65s)

Jacobs pillow

Didn't think I'd be adding on Jacobs pillow on recent swell runs has been running respectably for mick Appleby but he hadn't got any improvement out of it,quite a strange turnaround as Rebecca bastiman had the horse for one run in a claimer when it won in September,then got claimed for 8500 went to Appleby stable then today she reclaimed it for just 6750.That little investment may work out alright as today the clock pointed to a very decent time,rated 71 running 1.55 seconds quicker than speightstown kid won first handicap off 62 and also .48 quicker than the lass 5 won by boolass ran at decent clip.It maybe Appleby has worked his magic and Rebecca bastiman has been fortuitous looking at the times he would've sluiced up and taken at face value you could put him nearer 80.The fact the track is riding a fair bit slower than recent meetings maybe one reason and the fact he might need to lead which might be worth factoring into next runs as the mark of 71 based on todays run is looking generous and a nice little pickup for new trainer..
 
SPEIGHTSTOWN KIDEVEN
MODESTEVEN -
MUHTARISEVEN +
BOOLASSFAST
BOOTS AND SPURSEVEN +
JACOB'S PILLOWFAST

<tbody>
[TD="align: center"]
+/- OHR
[/TD]
[TD="align: center"] Speed
Fig [/TD]
[TD="width: 220"]
[/TD]
[TD="width: 86"]
Pace
[/TD]

[TD="align: center"] -11 [/TD]
[TD="align: center"] 51 [/TD]

[TD="align: center"] -2 [/TD]
[TD="align: center"] 71 [/TD]

[TD="align: center"] +7 [/TD]
[TD="align: center"] 82 [/TD]

[TD="align: center"] -1 [/TD]
[TD="align: center"] 63 [/TD]

[TD="align: center"] -3 [/TD]
[TD="align: center"] 74 [/TD]

[TD="align: center"] +10 [/TD]
[TD="align: center"] 81 [/TD]

[TD="colspan: 4"] Track Speed -1 (Stand) [/TD]

</tbody>
 
Probably find now that certain horses will only act when the going is either quick or slower likev today there were two good examples Zaeem and Play nicely both didn't run to form and seems to much of a coincidence they ran so poorly when going was a lot slower,both simply looked like they didn't get home on it.Yet Jacobs pillow has got to run on a slower surface and relished it,gets complex this time of year as temps drop and surface can get really slow and the form can look impossible to fathom with lots of horses seemingly not running to form.
 
gigilo said:
Probably find now that certain horses will only act when the going is either quick or slower likev today there were two good examples Zaeem and Play nicely both didn't run to form and seems to much of a coincidence they ran so poorly when going was a lot slower,both simply looked like they didn't get home on it.Yet Jacobs pillow has got to run on a slower surface and relished it,gets complex this time of year as temps drop and surface can get really slow and the form can look impossible to fathom with lots of horses seemingly not running to form.
Click to expand...

Yesterday it was only 1 lb per mile slow..which is standard or good on my figures...recently it has varied from meeting to meeting..some days up to 20+ fast recently.

It can get a lot slower than yesterday..these were the goings at this time last year,,similar trend. Always worst when we have frost as they harrow deeper..we not had that yet..you can see the harrow deep days looking at last January

1/1/15 = -18
2/1/15 = -14
4/1/15 = -18
6/1/15 = -8
8/1/15 = +4
13/1/15 = 0
20/1/15 = -42
22/1/15 = -21
27/1/15 = -24
29/1/15 = 0
3/2/15 = -58
8/2/15 = -22
10/2/15 = -32

The last few meetings have been

18/12/15 = +14
22/12/15 = +16
29/12/15 = -18
1/1/16 = -5
2/1/16 = +5
5/1/16 = +27
10/1/16 = -1


i was amazed how short play nicely was yesterday.its last run was a decent early pace to 3 out ..so should have run a decent figure...but overall speed figure wasn't very good..58...certainly not in line with winning distance.
 
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Play nicely could've won by 30ls the day it won nort 13ls so that finishing time didn't mean anything looked chucked in of 69..
 
gigilo said:
Play nicely could've won by 30ls the day it won nort 13ls so that finishing time didn't mean anything looked chucked in of 69..
Click to expand...

he won easily...but how many times do you see a horse travelling that well in a race..get asked..and not go a deal faster..

so yes..if he's one that will go faster..could have done a better time..if he is a bridle ponce..then who knows.

he was beaten by a horse that won in a decent time yesterday..so there could be more there to come ..whether its another 17 length more than time before is a 50/50 call between being genuine or bridle ponce.
 
It's exactly why I mentioned the surface when riding differently different horses only going on the track when the tracks quicker or faster like Zaeem yesterday looked to be outstayed but that wasn't its form similarly play nicely and Capelita a few weeks ago then Jacobs pillow yesterday showing improvement although that could be combination of slightly slower surface and being able to dominate.Far more complex than just taking all the horses will run the same at swell regardless of how quick or slow it is,especially when through jan/feb...
 
I was going to mention Zaem

When Zaem won other day..the surface was only slightly quicker though than yesterday +5 versus -1..so about 2 lengths..which is negligble. Good ground alone can vary on turf by 25+ lbs from G/F to G/s. I'm not seeing the surface being the case with Zaem..it just wasn't that different a surface on both days for me.

Zaem's time was genuinely large on 2nd..especially considering that Falcons Crest ran par to mark ..both races proper pace. It was the sort of figure i'm wary off if turning out quickly....its more than likely bounced after that major time on the 2nd jan imo

Zaem can win now up in class off 90 i think..might just need a break...will probably win in the next week now i've said that:)
 
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Also Play nicely,Capelita and Zaeem all turned out quickly and all beaten that's why it's so complex and looking at patterns of horse best runs when syrface has been slower/faster and how soon they've run after producing decent times if beaten,nearly all these horses with best speedfigures in race have been beaten on next runs this season..
 
gigilo said:
Also Play nicely,Capelita and Zaeem all turned out quickly and all beaten that's why it's so complex and looking at patterns of horse best runs when syrface has been slower/faster and how soon they've run after producing decent times if beaten,nearly all these horses with best speedfigures in race have been beaten on next runs this season..
Click to expand...

to be honest..i like horses getting beat the time after like Zaem....as soon as i see a really large figure i rarely back it when it appears quickly at short price..price next time will be good..over the years the number of times it happens shows that some kind of recovery period is needed when a horse puts in major..compared to its normal..figure...particularly at testing Southwell with the hard pace they go compared with other tracks. Obviously some do win..but its normally at short odds that i personally don't mind missing.

The two that followed Zaeem home are worth a watch.. Captain revelation is on a winning mark and now that Zaeem has been beaten will start a decent price. Assault On Rome is also on a decent mark and they since run him over 8 at Chelmsford..so thats a blind. Queen Aggie makes those two look good if you remove Zaeem from the race....as QA was on a winning mark and those two beat it over 3 lengths.

Hopefully those two run back at Southwell soon.
 
Part time punter said:
It's reading conversations like this that make me realise how little I know!

Great knowledge chaps. Thanks
Click to expand...

at end of day PTP..we are all guessing what will happen ultimately..its just a matter of trying to reduce the size of the guess...the more info you can give yourself the better..just remember..many punters won't go in depth..so the more work you do..you will be just that bit better informed.

I don't have the eye that G has..i'm a more mechanical numbers based guesser..whereas G can watch a race and will probably see something i don't. With the number of races i time..i should be an expert watcher really..too busy watching the clock:)
 
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Southwell (AW) Result
14 Jan 2016
« 3:05 » UNIBET.CO.UK DAILY ENHANCED PLACE TERMS HANDICAP
(Class 6) (0-65, 3yo) 5f Standard
£2,587.60, £770.00, £384.80, £192.40
RESULTRATE RACE
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HORSE/SP AGE WGT TRAINER/JOCKEY OR TS RPR

« 1 6 Bring On A Spinner 11/8F 3 9-2 Stuart Williams 65 * *
Aaron Jones5


« 2 8 2 Memyselfie (IRE) 33/1 3 8-1over weight1over weight5 v1 Derek Shaw 52 * *
Jack Osborn7


« 3 5 3¾ Sarabi 8/1 3 9-6 p Scott Dixon 64 * *
Kieran O'Neill


« 4 3 1½ Koothrappali 9/2 3 9-1 David Barron 59 * *
Graham Gibbons


« 5 1 1 Scottish Command 9/2 3 9-1 v1 Richard Hannon 59 * *
Sean Levey


« 6 7 1¼ Fiftytintsofsilver (IRE) 20/1 3 8-11 Gay Kelleway 55 * *
Luke Morris


« 7 2 7 Young Windsor (IRE) 7/1 3 9-6 p Ann Duffield 64 * *
P J McDonald


« 8 4 ½ Lady Elizabeth (IRE) 25/1 3 9-1 p Scott Dixon 59 * *
Tom Eaves


8 ran TIME 57.49s (fast by 0.51s)

Bring on a spinner
Memyselfie


An interesting time on the clock on what looked a weak handicap but the times suggests not,the winner rated 65 running .24 quicker than jaarih winning the older handicap rated 70 and carrying 8 pound less than the 3 yr old if taken at face value from those two results you could have the winner in the 90s I suspect the older handicap was just avery poor race so probably makes bring a spinner look better strictly looking at times.Still hard not to be impressed though on only 3rd run and off a mark in the low 70s should be plenty of races to win mau even see him taking on the older sprinters here and would look worth backing as the older 5f sprinters are very weak even in the higher grade races.
The second memyselfie is just as interestinglooking exposed on other surfaces yet running 5 pound out of handicap here and pound overweight and not given hard race a furlong out,this must be her surface now and looks absolutely chucked in off 52,the third sarabi was a further 3 3/4ls behind and last run here over 5fs had won a race for horses rated upto 65 the form appears to be rovk siolid...
 
Kempton (AW) Result
17 Jan 2016
« 4:10 » 100% RACINGUK PROFITS RETURNED TO RACING HANDICAP
(Class 5) (0-75, 4yo+) 6f Standard
£2,911.05, £866.25, £432.90, £216.45
RESULTRATE RACE
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HORSE/SP AGE WGT TRAINER/JOCKEY OR TS RPR

« 1 2 Noble Deed 9/1 6 9-0 Michael Attwater 68 * *
Kieren Fox


« 2 3 nse Desert Strike 16/1 10 9-7 p Conor Dore 75 * *
J F Egan


« 3 9 ½ Quintus Cerialis (IRE) 5/1 4 9-6 p Clive Cox 74 * *
Adam Kirby


« 4 10 hd Pour La Victoire (IRE) 6/1 6 9-5 b Tony Carroll 73 * *
Luke Morris


« 5 8 2 Mezmaar 33/1 7 9-4 h Kevin Morgan 72 * *
Shane Kelly


« 6 6 nk Royal Normandy 11/8F 4 9-1 b Andrew Balding 72 * *
Rob Hornby3


« 7 4 ¾ New Leyf (IRE) 16/1 10 9-2 b Jeremy Gask 70 * *
Martin Lane


« 8 1 ½ Generalyse 33/1 7 9-0 b Anabel K Murphy 68 * *
Pat Cosgrave


« 9 5 2 Indian Affair 20/1 6 9-2 tb Milton Bradley 70 * *
William Carson


« 10 11 2 Summersault (IRE) 25/1 5 9-0 Jamie Osborne 68 * *
Timmy Murphy


« 11 7 2 Lucky Di 20/1 6 9-4 Peter Hedger 72 * *
Robert Havlin


11 ran TIME 1m 11.23s (slow by 0.83s)

Mezmaar

A 7yr old returning after 17 month break and only 8 lifetime runs was rated 95 as a 2yr old in 2011 returning today off just 72 over 6fs at Kempton,the psce held up in the race but mezmaar was motoring at finish from way off the pace, looks to retain plenty of ability and may even be better than this grade if he comes on for the run.Hopefully will have gone unnoticed and under unfashionable trainer could see some decent prices on next few runs,very promising run back as these races for horses rated upto 75 are there for the taking..
 
Boolass
Your lucky day


Strange looking time on the last two 6f races of the day the seemingly unpredictable boolass running faster than the class 5 6f handicap ending the card by .13 nothing sufggests that there was any reason for this as went off very quick in the l;ast race,what it could do is underestimate boolass run and if the blinkers have same effect again it's almost a certainty she will be overpriced as this form will go down as dire by all future reference yet the time will say otherwise.She won't go up in the weights leaving her on a mark of 64 and that mark now looks at least very fair if not generous,if that's the case then the second your lucky day only rated 42 has also run well 3 1/4ls behind conceding 5 pound I presume she will get bumped up now the handicapper will surely be generous on face value of the form he could be harsh and put her in the high 50s I'm hoping he will put her in the low 50s maybe 55 and that should then make her a bit of value.A race that should get drastically underestimated..[/QUOTE]

Boolass now rated 70 (won off 64) YLD runs off 55 today in apprentice handicap, could be one for a sequence as will escape a penalty if wins today. App. Jockey has won four races this month already, 3 of which were at sprint trips. I think this wins easy.
 
EC1 said:
Yesterday it was only 1 lb per mile slow..which is standard or good on my figures...recently it has varied from meeting to meeting..some days up to 20+ fast recently.

It can get a lot slower than yesterday..these were the goings at this time last year,,similar trend. Always worst when we have frost as they harrow deeper..we not had that yet..you can see the harrow deep days looking at last January

1/1/15 = -18
2/1/15 = -14
4/1/15 = -18
6/1/15 = -8
8/1/15 = +4
13/1/15 = 0
20/1/15 = -42
22/1/15 = -21
27/1/15 = -24
29/1/15 = 0
3/2/15 = -58
8/2/15 = -22
10/2/15 = -32

The last few meetings have been

18/12/15 = +14
22/12/15 = +16
29/12/15 = -18
1/1/16 = -5
2/1/16 = +5
5/1/16 = +27
10/1/16 = -1


i was amazed how short play nicely was yesterday.its last run was a decent early pace to 3 out ..so should have run a decent figure...but overall speed figure wasn't very good..58...certainly not in line with winning distance.
Click to expand...

you can soon tell when there has been a frost..as I said above...the surface hasn't really been slow this winter apart from 29/12..not that slow then...and again... yesterdays it was -19 slow..Good/soft in turf terms......

but the frost has really caused them to harrow deep today...-46 slow.


officially..today they called it ...standard:)
 
I just put a line through meetings like that it's blatently obvious looking at the times that only a very small minority are acting on it and the distances beaten,then the surface becomes faster and those winners today get beat on new inflated marks.Just makes it harder to bet there and off putting when it's that slow,i very rarely bet apart from night before so even less likely I'm going to bet unless I know the going the night before,so hope the weather warms up a bit..
 
gigilo said:
Wolverhampton (AW) Result
30 Dec 2015
« 7:40 LADBROKES HANDICAP (TAPETA)
(Class 7) (0-50, 3yo+) (7f32y) 7f Standard
£2,911.05, £866.25, £432.90, £216.45
RESULTRATE RACE
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HORSE/SP AGE WGT TRAINER/JOCKEY OR TS RPR

« 1 5 Fairy Foxglove (IRE) 7/2J 5 9-4 P J F Murphy 47 * *
Tony Hamilton


« 2 2 hd Binky Blue (IRE) 14/1 3 9-6 h Daniel Mark Loughnane 49 * *
George Baker


« 3 4 4 Patron Of Explores (USA) 13/2 4 9-3 Patrick Holmes 46 * *
Jack Garritty


« 4 12 2¼ Lutine Charlie (IRE) 16/1 8 9-2 p Emma Owen 45 * *
Shane Gray


« 5 9 nse Poor Duke (IRE) 20/1 5 9-7 Michael Mullineaux 50 * *
Raul Da Silva


« 6 6 1¼ Machiavelian Storm (IRE) 14/1 3 9-2 p Michael Herrington 45 * *
Paul Mulrennan


« 7 1 1¼ Spoken Words 16/1 6 9-3 e/s John David Riches 46 * *
Kieran O'Neill


« 8 7 ½ Dark Phantom (IRE) 7/2J 4 9-4 Geoffrey Deacon 47 * *
Jim Crowley


« 9 3 ¾ Bionic Indian 4/1 3 9-0 p Michael Easterby 50 * *
Nathan Evans7


« 10 8 3¼ Paradise Spectre 33/1 8 9-5 p Zoe Davison 48 * *
Liam Keniry


« 11 10 5 Salvado (IRE) 20/1 5 8-13 Tony Carroll 49 * *
Rhiain Ingram7


« 12 11 6 Offbeat Safaris (IRE) 16/1 7 9-5 p John Mackie 48 * *
Joey Haynes


12 ran TIME 1m 27.90s (slow by 0.90s)

Fairy foxglove
Binky blue

Couldn't really get a worse race for horses rated upto 50 but the time suggests that they've run better than their marks although the form does look suspect with 5yr old winning first ever race after 24 races and similarly the second also 24 races so the actual form looks highly suspect the clock says not.The earlier times on the card also were a lot slower than recent meetings ran there also pointer for the time of the last being decent for grade,the winner and runner up were only rated 47 and 49 and although there overall profiles are to avoid now they've produced this time then at least over this c/d in such weak races there's no reason why they can't win more races.There was a 7f race on the 22nd of December for horses rated upto 60 which was run at a true pace,the track was probably quicker that night and they ran slightly slower and looking at similar races when track has been slower it's hard to dismiss the time even if they maybe unreliable..
Click to expand...


What a monstrous sp times have worked out as write up she could win again...
 
Gilmer looks interesting at a huge price,the trainer has only had 1 winner in 5 seasons so is always going to be bigger than they should if any sort of respectable form profile.Gilmers win record isn't any better either is yet to win from 26 starts but is now racing off lowest ever mark was rated 81 in 2014 tomorrow off 52 with claimer taking off 2 pound.He has a stone turnaround with mr chocolate drop for a 1/4l defeat in the spring,ran 3rd to hickster off 57,4th to lyrical off 57 and a very good 2nd to heavens guest off 57 in summer all at wolves,then ran 3rd to zaria on the turf befoe 3 no shows over hurdles then last 3 runs strangely dropped to 6fs and 7fs.His last run was wide and ridden under hand'sn heels was better than result appeared,those races from the summer were slightly better than tomorrows race on those runs you wouldn't have him any bigger than 10/1 and he's getting priced up on last few runs and trainer.He's obviously not totally reliable as runs a bit keen in some races but has a relative consistent profile in races that were slightly better than this and has to be worth a small bet.Hard to know if it will be big gamble but on last summers form here would really be less than a 10/1 shot..

Gilmer 20/1 365


16/1 left with 365/10bet..
 
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So thick these trainers,they pull it out when shortens to 9s even that was value they don't seem to realize I will just wreck the prices so they may as well take whats left even the 12s was still value this morning down to 9s..
 
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