Daily picks.

Lingfield (AW) Result
05 Feb 2016
« 4:10 » DAILY UNIBET EARLY PRICES FROM 9AM MAIDEN STAKES
(Class 5) (3yo+) (5f6y) 5f Standard
£2,911.05, £866.25, £432.90, £216.45
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HORSE/SP AGE WGT TRAINER/JOCKEY OR TS RPR

1 1 Justice Lady (IRE) 11/10F 3 8-9 David Elsworth — * *
Martin Lane


« 2 3 ¾ Hot Stuff 7/4 3 9-0 Tony Carroll 63 * *
Jim Crowley


« 3 4 3 Blue Amazon (IRE) 12/1 4 9-2 v1 Lee Carter 57 * *
Paddy Bradley7


« 4 5 2 Showdaisy 8/1 3 8-9 ht1 Andrew Balding — * *
Oisin Murphy


« 5 2 15 Tilsworth Micky 8/1 4 9-11 J R Jenkins 63 * *
Alistair Rawlinson3


5 ran TIME 58.53s (slow by 1.23s)

Justice lady

An interesting runner on debut,out of dream ahead and dam related to lochsong,although this race was very weak runner up rated 63 that just makes her look even more value in future should get chucked in when given a mark but the distance won doesn't reflect her superiority.The winning time of 58.53 perfectly respectable for a debut run and she might be half decent eventually going away under hands n' heels,think there's a chance she could be an 85+ horse but will more than likely be running nearer 70...
 
If I'd been a layer would've laid it at 13/8 ridiculous price 64 is as good as she is tops might scrape another win out of her but certainly not worth backing in future especially at likely prices.
 
gigilo said:
Southwell (AW) Result
14 Jan 2016
« 3:05 » UNIBET.CO.UK DAILY ENHANCED PLACE TERMS HANDICAP
(Class 6) (0-65, 3yo) 5f Standard
£2,587.60, £770.00, £384.80, £192.40
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HORSE/SP AGE WGT TRAINER/JOCKEY OR TS RPR

« 1 6 Bring On A Spinner 11/8F 3 9-2 Stuart Williams 65 * *
Aaron Jones5


« 2 8 2 Memyselfie (IRE) 33/1 3 8-1over weight1over weight5 v1 Derek Shaw 52 * *
Jack Osborn7


« 3 5 3¾ Sarabi 8/1 3 9-6 p Scott Dixon 64 * *
Kieran O'Neill


« 4 3 1½ Koothrappali 9/2 3 9-1 David Barron 59 * *
Graham Gibbons


« 5 1 1 Scottish Command 9/2 3 9-1 v1 Richard Hannon 59 * *
Sean Levey


« 6 7 1¼ Fiftytintsofsilver (IRE) 20/1 3 8-11 Gay Kelleway 55 * *
Luke Morris


« 7 2 7 Young Windsor (IRE) 7/1 3 9-6 p Ann Duffield 64 * *
P J McDonald


« 8 4 ½ Lady Elizabeth (IRE) 25/1 3 9-1 p Scott Dixon 59 * *
Tom Eaves


8 ran TIME 57.49s (fast by 0.51s)

Bring on a spinner
Memyselfie


An interesting time on the clock on what looked a weak handicap but the times suggests not,the winner rated 65 running .24 quicker than jaarih winning the older handicap rated 70 and carrying 8 pound less than the 3 yr old if taken at face value from those two results you could have the winner in the 90s I suspect the older handicap was just avery poor race so probably makes bring a spinner look better strictly looking at times.Still hard not to be impressed though on only 3rd run and off a mark in the low 70s should be plenty of races to win mau even see him taking on the older sprinters here and would look worth backing as the older 5f sprinters are very weak even in the higher grade races.
The second memyselfie is just as interestinglooking exposed on other surfaces yet running 5 pound out of handicap here and pound overweight and not given hard race a furlong out,this must be her surface now and looks absolutely chucked in off 52,the third sarabi was a further 3 3/4ls behind and last run here over 5fs had won a race for horses rated upto 65 the form appears to be rovk siolid...[/QU

Put up a pound if the visor works again has great chance her form with the fav stands out on whats been seen so far,i'd expect a big gamble if they expect her to run the same again..

Memyselfie 7/1 365/betfred/totesport/betbright hopefully will be at leaset half that price would be very dubious if it wasn't with form on offer..
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Veteran 10yr old alpha tauri is probably worth throwing a few coppers at and as long as going off these sort of prices and probably bigger than will be worth following till end of season as still retains ability has already been 4th twice 2nd and 5th in hot claimer behing boomerang bob all at swell and off higher marks in same grade handicaps as tomorrows.
Tomorrow he gets to run off pound lower mark than when winning off 69 last season and this will be lowest mark since march 2014,the race is chocca full of front runners so looks unlikely something will make all.The times from the 21st jan when greyfriarschorista ran in a seller with monsieur jimmy and alpha tauri finished 4th to llewellyn in a handicap on same card alpha tauri has something like a 1 1/2ls to find with the fav greyfriarschorita and the beating of monsieur jimmy so on that run has to be the value.
Royal holiday needs a mile although stamina may help but unlikely to dominate with 3 others taking each other on,the field look unbackable so at these prices although he's impossible to predict alpha tauri has to be worth a small bet and probably future runs, if khajaaly comes back to last years form when with appleby then would probably win but the value is definitely with the rag. even if he gets tailed off his profile is to keep backing him as long as these sort of prices.Could possibly be a bit of a gamble as well,even though tailed off last time out as it's hard to see how there's not going to be a pace collapse.Hopefully ben Curtis will hold him up from that draw and won't need to go with the front runners,if he's on a going day then has a squeak..

Alpha tauri 14/1 365/victor
 
gigilo said:
Veteran 10yr old alpha tauri is probably worth throwing a few coppers at and as long as going off these sort of prices and probably bigger than will be worth following till end of season as still retains ability has already been 4th twice 2nd and 5th in hot claimer behing boomerang bob all at swell and off higher marks in same grade handicaps as tomorrows.
Tomorrow he gets to run off pound lower mark than when winning off 69 last season and this will be lowest mark since march 2014,the race is chocca full of front runners so looks unlikely something will make all.The times from the 21st jan when greyfriarschorista ran in a seller with monsieur jimmy and alpha tauri finished 4th to llewellyn in a handicap on same card alpha tauri has something like a 1 1/2ls to find with the fav greyfriarschorita and the beating of monsieur jimmy so on that run has to be the value.
Royal holiday needs a mile although stamina may help but unlikely to dominate with 3 others taking each other on,the field look unbackable so at these prices although he's impossible to predict alpha tauri has to be worth a small bet and probably future runs, if khajaaly comes back to last years form when with appleby then would probably win but the value is definitely with the rag. even if he gets tailed off his profile is to keep backing him as long as these sort of prices.Could possibly be a bit of a gamble as well,even though tailed off last time out as it's hard to see how there's not going to be a pace collapse.Hopefully ben Curtis will hold him up from that draw and won't need to go with the front runners,if he's on a going day then has a squeak..

Alpha tauri 14/1 365/victor
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Have to settle for the place should've cleaned up there with the fcast £37 worked out almost to the length...
 
gigilo said:
Veteran 10yr old alpha tauri is probably worth throwing a few coppers at and as long as going off these sort of prices and probably bigger than will be worth following till end of season as still retains ability has already been 4th twice 2nd and 5th in hot claimer behing boomerang bob all at swell and off higher marks in same grade handicaps as tomorrows.
Tomorrow he gets to run off pound lower mark than when winning off 69 last season and this will be lowest mark since march 2014,the race is chocca full of front runners so looks unlikely something will make all.The times from the 21st jan when greyfriarschorista ran in a seller with monsieur jimmy and alpha tauri finished 4th to llewellyn in a handicap on same card alpha tauri has something like a 1 1/2ls to find with the fav greyfriarschorita and the beating of monsieur jimmy so on that run has to be the value.
Royal holiday needs a mile although stamina may help but unlikely to dominate with 3 others taking each other on,the field look unbackable so at these prices although he's impossible to predict alpha tauri has to be worth a small bet and probably future runs, if khajaaly comes back to last years form when with appleby then would probably win but the value is definitely with the rag. even if he gets tailed off his profile is to keep backing him as long as these sort of prices.Could possibly be a bit of a gamble as well,even though tailed off last time out as it's hard to see how there's not going to be a pace collapse.Hopefully ben Curtis will hold him up from that draw and won't need to go with the front runners,if he's on a going day then has a squeak..

Alpha tauri 14/1 365/victor
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Have to settle for the place should've cleaned up there with the fcast £37 worked out almost to the length...
 
Nicely summed up Andy, only just tuned in so only read it after the race, sure i put something up about C Smith at Southwell and his big priced coups, bad luck would have made a very nice F/C.
 
Southwell (AW) Result
10 Feb 2016
« 2:10 » 32RED HANDICAP
(Class 5) (0-75, 3yo) 1m Standard
£3,234.50, £962.50, £481.00, £240.50
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HORSE/SP AGE WGT TRAINER/JOCKEY OR TS RPR

« 1 2 Pirate's Treasure 11/8F 3 9-1 James Tate 68 * *
Luke Morris


« 2 1 nk Daisy Bere (FR) 2/1 3 9-2 K R Burke 69 * *
Joey Haynes


« 3 4 13 Strictly Art (IRE) 7/1 3 8-11 Alan Bailey 64 * *
Franny Norton


« 4 5 11 Masqueraded (USA) 4/1 3 8-10 v1 Gay Kelleway 70 * *
Rhiain Ingram7


4 ran TIME 1m 41.27s (slow by 2.27s)

Pirates treasure

The 3yr olds look a poor bunch on the aw surfaces this season,last year had races like jack hobbs and a few others which were obviously 100 horses on the clock this season a lot of the 3yr olds are getting false ratings from desperately slow races that in theory should be creating some massive value if some just slightly above average times are ckocked up.Hopefully todays winner pirate's treasure might be one of those that is far better thanm mark,the track was obviously on quick side after first race but this time of 1m41.27 although probably nothing special the fact winner was only rated 68 and will only get tiny rise will be running in races for horses upto 75 and if back on this surface will take a lot of beating on whats been running here previously.He looks open to loads of improvement as well dossing infront so one of the few potentially well handicapped 3yr olds on this surface starting from a decent mark.The time was .74 quicker than the 3yr old maiden winner but pirates treasure carried 11 pound more and was also 2.45 seconds quicker than the class 6 handicap for older horses for this grade looks rock solid and the winner looked far better than winning margin..
 
8.15 wolves

Absolutely abysmal race for horses rated upto 50 and there's one runner in this race that even just going back to august would be odds on to win it,Tom Dooley has had loads of racing 56 as 5yr old and looking at some of hios form seems unbelievable that he's only won one race on turf was actually 2nd to captain Cullen in august at the curragh a race for horses rated upto 85.Hss since dropped dramatically in the weights,infact is following same pattern when running in the high 60s dropping to 47 in feb 2015 tomorrow similar thing runs off 49 has also since changed trainers,john feane had 13 runners 5 winners 38% obviously if horse retains anything like any of its ability could be a massive gamble in this race.Looks one for notebook looking at profile regardless of tomorrows result as obviously far more ability than 49 and seems to be able to get back to ratings in 60s,in all honest the prices is a bit disappointing but the profile of the horse says to back it off these marks so will have to follow it for the foreseeable future..

Tom Dooley 6/1 365/betbright
 
Gigilo , Are you involved in a tipping line ? An awful lot of your selections get hammered in the betting , unless tons read this or do you post elsewhere ? , just curious and impressed :D
 
ozgood said:
Gigilo , Are you involved in a tipping line ? An awful lot of your selections get hammered in the betting , unless tons read this or do you post elsewhere ? , just curious and impressed :D
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There is no liquidity in overnight markets. Because Gigilo's track record is so strong he can move the market all by himself.
 
Probably 90% of the horses I back contract from anything like 30% to even 80% because I put them on here and anyone who knows and has seen the on the thread they're going to bet them regardless there's absolutely no reason not to back them if they're contracting like that all the time and because the contractions are so high and the value nearly always gets massively overbet they can keep backing them at much reduced prices.I wouldn't put tom Dooley in that 90% infact was hoping to see bigger prices,as for the stable to be trying from the 10 draw at these prices weould have to be in form,as next time out they might price up 12/1 I would imagine it will go off very short maybe 7/4 or shorter if stable are confident otherwise I can see original prices on the exchanges..
 
Tom Dooley has now had 56 races and traded shorter in 46 of them-some of them ridiculously short.The draw didn't do him any favours -his trainer will find him a race or two but I have no doubts he will continue to burn punters.
 
Just the types I'm looking for 6/1-9/4,looked obvious was going to shorten and was pretty likely would either win or be unplaced if I could find 1/2 dozen of those everyday would never need to back a winner I took the risk and kept backing it at 7/2 so made a bit on the race.Certainly won't win any races on that form that's a poor a race as you'll ever see.
 
1 6 Noble Deed 8/1 6 9-3 Michael Attwater 70 * *
Joe Fanning


« 2 3 ½ Seamster 3/1 9 9-3 tv David O'Meara 70 * *
Daniel Tudhope


« 3 1 1¼ Quintus Cerialis (IRE) 9/4F 4 9-7 p Clive Cox 74 * *
Adam Kirby


« 4 7 1½ Robero 12/1 4 9-0 John E Long 72 * *
Paddy Pilley5


« 5 5 shd Picket Line 14/1 4 9-6 Geoffrey Deacon 73 * *
Timmy Murphy


« 6 10 nk Multitask 7/1 6 9-6 h Michael Madgwick 73 * *
Liam Keniry


« 7 11 ½ Birdie Queen 16/1 6 9-5 h Gary Moore 72 * *
George Baker


« 8 2 shd Maymyo (IRE) 8/1 5 9-1 t Sylvester Kirk 68 * *
Luke Morris


« 9 4 2¼ Cool Strutter (IRE) 20/1 4 9-2 Andrew Balding 72 * *
Rob Hornby3


« 10 9 1½ State Of The Union (IRE) 33/1 4 9-3 Lee Carter 70 * *
Cathy Gannon


« 11 8 12 Generalyse 33/1 7 8-8 b Anabel K Murphy 66 * *
Josephine Gordon5


11 ran TIME 1m 10.85s (slow by 1.35s

Multitask

Multitask ran in this grade for first time since winning in January 2015 off 74 now off 73,was considering a bet today but early prices were only 14s and a trainer that only has 4/5 winners a season was looking more at 20s 25s,he was drawn wide then dropped in giving away 10-12 lengths had no chjance and surprisingly even with front runners taking each other on the pace held up.He made a fair bit ground up from impossible position and probably worth following now at hopefully some decent prices..
 
4.50 wolves

Elysian prince was a little bit of an eyecatcher last time out after 14 month break,end of 2014 had looked progressive when winning in October/November then runner up to the progressive persona grata.Reappeared on jan 25th this year sat out the back with toga tiger,jock was essy on him in last 2 furlongs and with normal progression would expect him to finish infront of toga tiger.
I wouldn't be overconfident as this race on paper looks a better race horses like stetchworth and miss minuity have previous form in better grade races but there appears to be ? on a lot of the runners.In 2014 won a race in Chantilly having lots of 70+ horses behind conceding weight so with trainer that has decent strike rate on aw,he's worth a small bet in this class, although a slight drop in grade next time out if no show looks worth following may even drift tomorrow all depending how its come off that break.

Elysian prince 15/2 betbright 7/1 victor/365/ppower/lads/corals
 
Winter Derby

A very weak looking winter derby grendisar hasn't finished out of the first two in last 7 runs over c/d and may well even win again in a weak renewal,there don't seem to be many new horses with much potential in the race I get the impression its going to be a desperate finish with the field finishing close up.There maybe a little bit of value in Battalion he has finished behind grendisar 3 times,although got left last and was making ground at finish behind don't be the other two races ben beaten fair and square.There could be a slight angle wioth battalion coming back after a break last season ran 6th in the race after 4 month break,also in previous season after 5 month break returned to win.The break from December to the end of February should suit,he's still only had 19 lifetime runs and only 6 on the aw so could be more to come in what looks a weak renewal he could be the valu at 12/1,the 5 runs at lingfield returned sps 4/1,7/1/11/4 and 9/2.There's virtually nothing unexposed in the race bar festive fare 12/1 could easily be 6-7/1 on the day!!!

Battalion 12/1 ppower/sjames/sportsbook
 
3.40 swell

Zaeem has been improving at the age of 7 ran one of the best times of the season penultimate run at swell probably equivalent to anything that has run in tomorrows race, has been beaten since behind a few of these that definitely wasn't the form shown previously.This is an even tougher race but the 8/1 is far to big to not at least have a small bet even if progress may have bottomed out,in what looks a wide open race,probably would've been nearer to 9/2 if you took last run away..

Zaeem 8/1 365/lads/victor/sportsbook
 
gigilo said:
3.40 swell

Zaeem has been improving at the age of 7 ran one of the best times of the season penultimate run at swell probably equivalent to anything that has run in tomorrows race, has been beaten since behind a few of these that definitely wasn't the form shown previously.This is an even tougher race but the 8/1 is far to big to not at least have a small bet even if progress may have bottomed out,in what looks a wide open race,probably would've been nearer to 9/2 if you took last run away..

Zaeem 8/1 365/lads/victor/sportsbook
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Another NR...weird!
 
gigilo said:
Veteran 10yr old alpha tauri is probably worth throwing a few coppers at and as long as going off these sort of prices and probably bigger than will be worth following till end of season as still retains ability has already been 4th twice 2nd and 5th in hot claimer behing boomerang bob all at swell and off higher marks in same grade handicaps as tomorrows.
Tomorrow he gets to run off pound lower mark than when winning off 69 last season and this will be lowest mark since march 2014,the race is chocca full of front runners so looks unlikely something will make all.The times from the 21st jan when greyfriarschorista ran in a seller with monsieur jimmy and alpha tauri finished 4th to llewellyn in a handicap on same card alpha tauri has something like a 1 1/2ls to find with the fav greyfriarschorita and the beating of monsieur jimmy so on that run has to be the value.
Royal holiday needs a mile although stamina may help but unlikely to dominate with 3 others taking each other on,the field look unbackable so at these prices although he's impossible to predict alpha tauri has to be worth a small bet and probably future runs, if khajaaly comes back to last years form when with appleby then would probably win but the value is definitely with the rag. even if he gets tailed off his profile is to keep backing him as long as these sort of prices.Could possibly be a bit of a gamble as well,even though tailed off last time out as it's hard to see how there's not going to be a pace collapse.Hopefully ben Curtis will hold him up from that draw and won't need to go with the front runners,if he's on a going day then has a squeak..

Alpha tauri 14/1 365/victor
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Good luck with this one today Andy, looks a stiff race to find the winner.
 
Southwell (AW) Result
16 Feb 2016
2:00 » UNIBET OFFER DAILY JOCKEY/TRAINER SPECIALS HANDICAP
(Class 6) (0-55, 4yo+) 6f Standard
£2,587.60, £770.00, £384.80, £192.40
RESULTRATE RACE
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HORSE/SP AGE WGT TRAINER/JOCKEY OR TS RPR

« 1 2 First Excel 4/1 4 9-2 Roy Bowring 55 * *
Aaron Jones5


« 2 6 hd Arizona Snow 3/1F 4 9-5 h Ronald Harris 53 * *
Luke Morris


« 3 7 1¾ Hab Reeh 4/1 8 9-4 Ruth Carr 52 * *
James Sullivan


« 4 5 ½ Ciaras Cookie (IRE) 8/1 4 8-9over weight1 ht Heather Dalton 46 * *
Danny Brock3


« 5 3 hd Glenbuck Lass (IRE) 9/2 4 8-12over weight1 Alan Bailey 46 * *
Saleem Golam


« 6 4 3 Upper Lambourn (IRE) 12/1 8 8-12over weight1 Christopher Kellett 46 * *
Joe Fanning


« 7 9 ½ Ripon Rose 22/1 4 9-3 Paul Midgley 51 * *
Paul Mulrennan


« 8 10 5 Marmooz 16/1 4 8-12over weight1 v1 Michael Appleby 46 * *
Liam Jones


8 ran TIME 1m 18.79s (slow by 4.79s)


First excel

A very poor race but winner did well from 2 draw being dropped out and giving them 5-6ls and at finish winning comfortably even though winning distance was hd,the winner looked different class from the early position and could well be a 65 horse was only rated 55 today will get a small rise and looks like could run up quick sequence.Only low grade stuff but not many horses in this grade can be dropped out and come from behind at swekl so was quite impressive,was a bit frustrating as I liked its last run at wolves but sire stats wren't great hopefully will make up for it next time out..
 
gigilo said:
8.15 wolves

Absolutely abysmal race for horses rated upto 50 and there's one runner in this race that even just going back to august would be odds on to win it,Tom Dooley has had loads of racing 56 as 5yr old and looking at some of hios form seems unbelievable that he's only won one race on turf was actually 2nd to captain Cullen in august at the curragh a race for horses rated upto 85.Hss since dropped dramatically in the weights,infact is following same pattern when running in the high 60s dropping to 47 in feb 2015 tomorrow similar thing runs off 49 has also since changed trainers,john feane had 13 runners 5 winners 38% obviously if horse retains anything like any of its ability could be a massive gamble in this race.Looks one for notebook looking at profile regardless of tomorrows result as obviously far more ability than 49 and seems to be able to get back to ratings in 60s,in all honest the prices is a bit disappointing but the profile of the horse says to back it off these marks so will have to follow it for the foreseeable future..

Tom Dooley 6/1 365/betbright
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Presume you know it's running at Dundalk tonight Andy, where trainer has a very good record, also has the services of very good 5lb claimer Tom Madden. 8/1 looks fair imo.
 
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