It will only flourish with a decent strike rate though and so without a P&L I don't know whether he's doing any good or not. That's also why I asked if he's greening up.
Daily picks.
- Thread starter gigilo
- Start date
It will only flourish with a decent strike rate though and so without a P&L I don't know whether he's doing any good or not. That's also why I asked if he's greening up.
Soary Stars
At the Start
- Joined
- Jun 7, 2011
- Messages
- 648
Hope the birth goes well, Gigolo.
gigilo
Senior Jockey
- Joined
- May 5, 2011
- Messages
- 9,797
Will be one on here tomorrow providing its not a stupid price,5s will be fair anything bigger should be a great trade,hopefully the books won't open to early at wolves as i think the price will go straight away.Could be wrong,but it stands out on its last run.There may be a few tomorow price dependant.
gigilo
Senior Jockey
- Joined
- May 5, 2011
- Messages
- 9,797
After watching the replays two stand out in the same race which look better than their marks,hearts and minds and songbird blues both full of running in their last races and not getting getting runs.Lots of unexposed horses but little form and first runs on the aw these two stand out at the prices.
1pt trade hearts and minds 13/2 skybet,hills.
.25pt trade songbird blues 7/1 bet 365
1pt trade hearts and minds 13/2 skybet,hills.
.25pt trade songbird blues 7/1 bet 365
gigilo
Senior Jockey
- Joined
- May 5, 2011
- Messages
- 9,797
stake returnedAfter watching the replays two stand out in the same race which look better than their marks,hearts and minds and songbird blues both full of running in their last races and not getting getting runs.Lots of unexposed horses but little form and first runs on the aw these two stand out at the prices.
1pt trade hearts and minds 13/2 skybet,hills. out at 5.5
.25pt trade songbird blues 7/1 bet 365
gigilo
Senior Jockey
- Joined
- May 5, 2011
- Messages
- 9,797
Not as confident as my usual picks but hopefully there will be some profit either on the trade or ews,the two picks are crew cut(71) and one way or another both runners in the same race.Crew cut won a weak maiden beating eshoog at bath over the 5fs on third run,last time out beaten by maze over the same c/d but became outpaced 2fs out only to pick up again under hands and heels crying out for further.Maze came out again and was second off 83 franking the bath form,also reading the run of crew cuts from the rp it appears he lost a shoe at bath making that run more credible.With only the 5 runs looks open to improvement,handles the track and likes soft ground form looks solid and with a lot of the field exposed and not guaranteed to go on the ground 7s looks overpriced.
The other pick is same trainer as crew cut jeremy gask and he runs one way or another,down to an all time low of 72 and although only 1/18 on turf has run in far superior races to this and takes another drop in class.The thing that catches the eye is the two runs over 6fs on soft has run third off 90 to kaldoun kingdom and a 5th to rwoody off 86 this time last year beaten 2 1/2ls.He was on the wrong side at donny when running off 79 in may but the jockey was very considerate and although beaten 5 1/2ls was a few lengths better than that.At 16/1 if reproducing just the donny run would figure,the slight negative maybe the race being on a turning track over a trip just shy of 6fs but the 16/1 is to tempting in this weak race with the ? over other runners.
1pt trade crew cut
.10ptew 7/1 boyles,victor hills
.50pt trade one way or another
.05pt ew 16/1 boyles,ladbrokes
The other pick is same trainer as crew cut jeremy gask and he runs one way or another,down to an all time low of 72 and although only 1/18 on turf has run in far superior races to this and takes another drop in class.The thing that catches the eye is the two runs over 6fs on soft has run third off 90 to kaldoun kingdom and a 5th to rwoody off 86 this time last year beaten 2 1/2ls.He was on the wrong side at donny when running off 79 in may but the jockey was very considerate and although beaten 5 1/2ls was a few lengths better than that.At 16/1 if reproducing just the donny run would figure,the slight negative maybe the race being on a turning track over a trip just shy of 6fs but the 16/1 is to tempting in this weak race with the ? over other runners.
1pt trade crew cut
.10ptew 7/1 boyles,victor hills
.50pt trade one way or another
.05pt ew 16/1 boyles,ladbrokes
gigilo
Senior Jockey
- Joined
- May 5, 2011
- Messages
- 9,797
Not as confident as my usual picks but hopefully there will be some profit either on the trade or ews,the two picks are crew cut(71) and one way or another both runners in the same race.Crew cut won a weak maiden beating eshoog at bath over the 5fs on third run,last time out beaten by maze over the same c/d but became outpaced 2fs out only to pick up again under hands and heels crying out for further.Maze came out again and was second off 83 franking the bath form,also reading the run of crew cuts from the rp it appears he lost a shoe at bath making that run more credible.With only the 5 runs looks open to improvement,handles the track and likes soft ground form looks solid and with a lot of the field exposed and not guaranteed to go on the ground 7s looks overpriced.
The other pick is same trainer as crew cut jeremy gask and he runs one way or another,down to an all time low of 72 and although only 1/18 on turf has run in far superior races to this and takes another drop in class.The thing that catches the eye is the two runs over 6fs on soft has run third off 90 to kaldoun kingdom and a 5th to rwoody off 86 this time last year beaten 2 1/2ls.He was on the wrong side at donny when running off 79 in may but the jockey was very considerate and although beaten 5 1/2ls was a few lengths better than that.At 16/1 if reproducing just the donny run would figure,the slight negative maybe the race being on a turning track over a trip just shy of 6fs but the 16/1 is to tempting in this weak race with the ? over other runners.
1pt trade crew cut (9.2) and placed.
.10ptew 7/1 boyles,victor hills
.50pt trade one way or another(10s)unplaced
.05pt ew 16/1 boyles,ladbrokes
gigilo
Senior Jockey
- Joined
- May 5, 2011
- Messages
- 9,797
The stand out runner in the race is frozen over,last time out being 10-12ls off the pace with 4fs to go at epsom and eventually only being beaten 3ls,nearest at finish behind the progressive valencha.
Only this week i put up flameoftheforest at necastle based on this race thats already won off 75 and finished a nk and half a length infront of frozen over at epsom.As i mentioned that day horses rated in the mid seventies and 80s were behind and without doubt this fella is very well handicapped and i would think will turn out to be higher rated than these at some point.The negative maybe the track,plus there are quite a few c/d specialists in the race even so at 12/1 if it handles the track would go very close.Whatever happens tomorrow i would have this onside for the rest of the season as if unplaced tomorrow will be a big price next time out.
1pt trade frozen over 12/1 365 price gone
10/1 generally.
.05ptew
Only this week i put up flameoftheforest at necastle based on this race thats already won off 75 and finished a nk and half a length infront of frozen over at epsom.As i mentioned that day horses rated in the mid seventies and 80s were behind and without doubt this fella is very well handicapped and i would think will turn out to be higher rated than these at some point.The negative maybe the track,plus there are quite a few c/d specialists in the race even so at 12/1 if it handles the track would go very close.Whatever happens tomorrow i would have this onside for the rest of the season as if unplaced tomorrow will be a big price next time out.
1pt trade frozen over 12/1 365 price gone
10/1 generally..05ptew
gigilo
Senior Jockey
- Joined
- May 5, 2011
- Messages
- 9,797
The stand out runner in the race is frozen over,last time out being 10-12ls off the pace with 4fs to go at epsom and eventually only being beaten 3ls,nearest at finish behind the progressive valencha.
Only this week i put up flameoftheforest at necastle based on this race thats already won off 75 and finished a nk and half a length infront of frozen over at epsom.As i mentioned that day horses rated in the mid seventies and 80s were behind and without doubt this fella is very well handicapped and i would think will turn out to be higher rated than these at some point.The negative maybe the track,plus there are quite a few c/d specialists in the race even so at 12/1 if it handles the track would go very close.Whatever happens tomorrow i would have this onside for the rest of the season as if unplaced tomorrow will be a big price next time out.
1pt trade frozen over 12/1 365 price gone
.05ptew
And another 1pt to trade with stan james at 16s and another .05pt ew.:lol:
gigilo
Senior Jockey
- Joined
- May 5, 2011
- Messages
- 9,797
Averaged 10s!!!
gigilo
Senior Jockey
- Joined
- May 5, 2011
- Messages
- 9,797
Luke if you're on about asking for money for picks etc,you're way off the mark i'm semi retired i made enough in 8 years not to have another bet ever again.I bet for a living i'm not a tipster!!!
I will do anything to help anyone with their betting or discuss any race anytime if i'm around,i hate bookies and i also hate seeing people throwing money away on horses that cannot possibly win.Even if its just thowing up a few bets on here now and again its better than nothing,i'd prefer it if someone asked me about some races instead of being so negative and suspicious.
I will do anything to help anyone with their betting or discuss any race anytime if i'm around,i hate bookies and i also hate seeing people throwing money away on horses that cannot possibly win.Even if its just thowing up a few bets on here now and again its better than nothing,i'd prefer it if someone asked me about some races instead of being so negative and suspicious.
granger
Senior Jockey
Can you simplify what your approach is gigilo?
gigilo
Senior Jockey
- Joined
- May 5, 2011
- Messages
- 9,797
Unfortuanately fella there are no short cuts,i have to look at every horse in every race old fashioned hours in the form book and watching replays,looking for non triers and unlucky runners etc.The big thing thats disappeared are draw advantages so things are twice as hard as they used to be twenty years ago when lots of tracks you could back horses hard against the running rails and 9/10 you'd be hitting the winners with fcasts etc.So now instead of putting a line through half the fields you have to go through every runner apart from a few tracks.
The one big edge i have early season is using times from the 2yr old maidens,which is good but obviously only covers a small% of overall turnover.
Also a large % of my turnover is on ppots,even with the take out the bet is still worth doing and doing every race and double checking every runner you can sometimes see handicaps where the whole field will have to go in.My biggest win has actually come from ppots when i could keep them out of the pool,would be great if they didn't go in the pool especially when the aw starts.It's not a rariety for me to have 12-15% of the winning tickets on some of the aw meetings as i can have up to£1500 on any one perm.
What i need is someone to lay me the bet without the takeout!!!
A large % of my bets i will be betting two in a race ew,unless there's something outstanding.I also keep track of all times of all the maiden races on the aw,similar to the 2yr olds which when you get used to standard times etc you instantly know something thats going to be well handicapped.
I could go on for ever there are 101 things i look for,but in the main its really
down to prices and despite what most punters think the aw is the best betting medium by a mile.You can put a line through 3/4 of the runners in most races and you can find distinct draw advantages which last for several weeks,front runners etc or the opposite.As long as you're watching every meeting they can be easy to pick up on,lots of mythology surrounds lingfield for example as well not suiting front runners.At a certain point during the aw season the track will revert to suiting front runners,its always happened despite what some stats boys might tell you and regarding stall 1!!!
The one big edge i have early season is using times from the 2yr old maidens,which is good but obviously only covers a small% of overall turnover.
Also a large % of my turnover is on ppots,even with the take out the bet is still worth doing and doing every race and double checking every runner you can sometimes see handicaps where the whole field will have to go in.My biggest win has actually come from ppots when i could keep them out of the pool,would be great if they didn't go in the pool especially when the aw starts.It's not a rariety for me to have 12-15% of the winning tickets on some of the aw meetings as i can have up to£1500 on any one perm.
What i need is someone to lay me the bet without the takeout!!!
A large % of my bets i will be betting two in a race ew,unless there's something outstanding.I also keep track of all times of all the maiden races on the aw,similar to the 2yr olds which when you get used to standard times etc you instantly know something thats going to be well handicapped.
I could go on for ever there are 101 things i look for,but in the main its really
down to prices and despite what most punters think the aw is the best betting medium by a mile.You can put a line through 3/4 of the runners in most races and you can find distinct draw advantages which last for several weeks,front runners etc or the opposite.As long as you're watching every meeting they can be easy to pick up on,lots of mythology surrounds lingfield for example as well not suiting front runners.At a certain point during the aw season the track will revert to suiting front runners,its always happened despite what some stats boys might tell you and regarding stall 1!!!
granger
Senior Jockey
Good stuff gigilo, thanks for that
gigilo
Senior Jockey
- Joined
- May 5, 2011
- Messages
- 9,797
15:15 Newmarket, 6 Aug 20117f
german-thoroughbred.com Sweet Solera Stakes (Fillies' Group 3) (Class 1) (2YO only)
Winner £25,520 - 9 ran
Good
Weighed In
Result Future Form Pos Dist. Silk Cloth / Horse Name (Draw) SP Age / Wt Jockey / Trainer OR
1 3. Discourse (USA) (5) 5/2 Fav 2 8 - 12 L Dettori
M Al Zarooni
-
keen early tracked leaders, smooth headway over 1f out, led entering final furlong, ran on, impressive
2 4½ 8. Lily's Angel (IRE) (7) 7/1 2 8 - 12 T Hamilton
R A Fahey
96
held up, ridden over 2f out, headway over 1f out, stayed on to chase easy winner inside final furlong
3 1¼ 7. Kinetica (8) 4/1 J2Fav 2 8 - 12 S Sanders
Sir Mark Prescott
98
led, ridden 2f out, headed entering final furlong, kept on one pace
4 4 2. Desert Gazelle (USA) (2) 4/1 J2Fav 2 8 - 12 J P Spencer
S bin Suroor
-
dwelt and hampered start, held up in rear, switched left over 2f out, headway approaching final furlong, kept on near finish
5 5 10. Wahylah (IRE) (9) 66/1 2 8 - 12 P Robinson
C E Brittain
-
in touch, ridden over 2f out, kept on same pace from over 1f out
6 2¾ 5. Hawfinch (11) 25/1 2 8 - 12 R Havlin
J H M Gosden
88
in rear, ridden over 2f out, never on terms
7 3 11. Zingana (1) 33/1 2 8 - 12 D Sweeney
Eve Johnson Houghton
-
went left start mid-division, outpaced 2f out
8 2¾ 6. Illaunglass (IRE) (4) 5/1 2 8 - 12 J Fortune
J Noseda
99
tracked leader until ridden over 2f out, eased final furlong
9 10 4. Golden Valley
I backed discourse at decent prices after this race for the guineas,the fastest run this season taking into account that it couldv'e won another 5ls.I've also backed
lyric of light at bigger prices as well,the donny run was the only race to go under standard all week apart from one sprint!!!!
german-thoroughbred.com Sweet Solera Stakes (Fillies' Group 3) (Class 1) (2YO only)
Winner £25,520 - 9 ran
Good
Weighed In
Result Future Form Pos Dist. Silk Cloth / Horse Name (Draw) SP Age / Wt Jockey / Trainer OR
1 3. Discourse (USA) (5) 5/2 Fav 2 8 - 12 L Dettori
M Al Zarooni
-
keen early tracked leaders, smooth headway over 1f out, led entering final furlong, ran on, impressive
2 4½ 8. Lily's Angel (IRE) (7) 7/1 2 8 - 12 T Hamilton
R A Fahey
96
held up, ridden over 2f out, headway over 1f out, stayed on to chase easy winner inside final furlong
3 1¼ 7. Kinetica (8) 4/1 J2Fav 2 8 - 12 S Sanders
Sir Mark Prescott
98
led, ridden 2f out, headed entering final furlong, kept on one pace
4 4 2. Desert Gazelle (USA) (2) 4/1 J2Fav 2 8 - 12 J P Spencer
S bin Suroor
-
dwelt and hampered start, held up in rear, switched left over 2f out, headway approaching final furlong, kept on near finish
5 5 10. Wahylah (IRE) (9) 66/1 2 8 - 12 P Robinson
C E Brittain
-
in touch, ridden over 2f out, kept on same pace from over 1f out
6 2¾ 5. Hawfinch (11) 25/1 2 8 - 12 R Havlin
J H M Gosden
88
in rear, ridden over 2f out, never on terms
7 3 11. Zingana (1) 33/1 2 8 - 12 D Sweeney
Eve Johnson Houghton
-
went left start mid-division, outpaced 2f out
8 2¾ 6. Illaunglass (IRE) (4) 5/1 2 8 - 12 J Fortune
J Noseda
99
tracked leader until ridden over 2f out, eased final furlong
9 10 4. Golden Valley
I backed discourse at decent prices after this race for the guineas,the fastest run this season taking into account that it couldv'e won another 5ls.I've also backed
lyric of light at bigger prices as well,the donny run was the only race to go under standard all week apart from one sprint!!!!
Last edited:
gigilo
Senior Jockey
- Joined
- May 5, 2011
- Messages
- 9,797
Looking for love 22/1.
Lots of horses looking overpriced tonight at wolves looking at the times of races but just for the time being will put this one up.A reasonable time on 1st of october and only just behind the fav in the 8.50 tonight one of twins the race being run in 2m.0.17.Will be very surprised if there's no money for this as the standard time of that race was as quick as anything in this race has run here.
1pt trade 22/1 victor
.05ptew
Lots of horses looking overpriced tonight at wolves looking at the times of races but just for the time being will put this one up.A reasonable time on 1st of october and only just behind the fav in the 8.50 tonight one of twins the race being run in 2m.0.17.Will be very surprised if there's no money for this as the standard time of that race was as quick as anything in this race has run here.
1pt trade 22/1 victor
.05ptew
gigilo
Senior Jockey
- Joined
- May 5, 2011
- Messages
- 9,797
Yellow printer 7/1 sjames,lads,hills.
Yellow printer went under 2ms which doesn't happen often in this grade,although the track has been riding quick.Last time out running 4th to arkaim beaten 2 1/4ls the time of the race 1.59.48 also finshing in 5th was cathcart castle recent winner and had the fav one of twins in tonights race behind which also makes the 7s look overpriced.The favs drifting in this race so may also be a bit of value as well at 9/2 as these two on the clock if they repeat their recent runs look the two that stand out.I may even put in valley tiger and princess gail for tricasts if the prices permit.
1pt trade yellow printer
.05ptew
Yellow printer went under 2ms which doesn't happen often in this grade,although the track has been riding quick.Last time out running 4th to arkaim beaten 2 1/4ls the time of the race 1.59.48 also finshing in 5th was cathcart castle recent winner and had the fav one of twins in tonights race behind which also makes the 7s look overpriced.The favs drifting in this race so may also be a bit of value as well at 9/2 as these two on the clock if they repeat their recent runs look the two that stand out.I may even put in valley tiger and princess gail for tricasts if the prices permit.
1pt trade yellow printer
.05ptew