Daily picks.

I knew a bloke called Billy who drank in the British Legion who could mark off six cards in his hand, standing at the bar without putting his pint down.

He had his own monogrammed dabber.
 
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Sprint final April

Corals have the aw championship races priced up already, thios time last year I put alben star up at 14s and he won in the april final,he's won the race twice in last 3 years and is 8/1 and pretend winner previous year won at 6/5 is 5/1 most of the runners will be the same as last season.The front two in the betting based on form times over c/d look stand outs already pretend was runner up to markaz at Newcastle in june and as mentioned won this race previous year beating alben star so even though front two in betting the way the race will be run with exact same runners looks like being run to suit with both picking up the pieces.You're not going to get much on with one firm at this point,so looking at the race without those two and possibility that one may not turn up then maybe worth having a small bet on lancelot du lac.Lancelot du lac was 2nd in this race last year drawn 13 cantering entering the straight after being up with pace throughout beat most of the likeliest runners that will qualify in behind yet corals have him at 25/1,if the race is run exactly the same as last season I think one of the other two will win but 25/1 compared to the 4/1 sp when runner up last season is enormous.Don't quite understand how they've come to this price prevous 3 runs on the aw had won then runner up to alben star,could easily make a case for him being third fav in the race based on aw form over c/d.Must been priced up on last three turf runs where he was disappointing in all three runs,if he returns to the aw in form he's never going to be bigger than 10/1-12/1

Lancelot du lac 25/1 corals..
 
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1.20 Newmarket

Cashla bay ran in a maiden at haydock in a fast time over 6fs 2nd to eartha kitt had prevooiusly run well at the track in a decent time so form looked well above average,the time of the haydock race was only .49 slower than the older handicap on the card for horses rated upto 90,winner munfallet winning off 87.This could potentially be a red hot maiden especially after the opening maiden at Newmarket today with two horses looking like group horses on debut runs,very unusual too see such hot races near the enhd of season especially 2 days on the bounce.The betting will interesting as the fav with natural improvement you'd have to think was near a 100 horse so if anything can beat it would probably be one of the best debuts of the season.i was hoping she might've just popped up on the aw and would've been thieving money but as this race does have potential in it then she's just worth a small bet.There is always going to be a slight ? over this 7fs as well out of fastnet rock but she's obviously decent and one for next season.I would imagine if nothing is fancied from other stables then will go off odds on..

Cashla bay 13/8 victor/ppower
 
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7.40 Chelmsford

Will have a token bet on Aqua gardens has been very poor on last two runs and was 4th penultimate run so hadn't seemed totally out of form,has been ridden with pieces last three runs never had them before so probably excuse the poor runs picess and tt are on tomorrow and best run this season has been with them applied 5th of 16 to illusive off 78 for horses rated upto 90.Tomorrow runs of just 73 lowest mark since December 2013 last time ran in this grade won off 74,certainly doesn't look like a winner waiting to happen but a very poor looking race last three runs on the aw although well beaten was 6th of 7 to librisa breeze at wolves off 87,8th of 13 to volunteer point off 88 over this c/d and 3rd to home cummins off 88 at wolves.Those races were completely different class to tomorrows race and although has to prove retains that much ability runs in the right grade.The one slight negative that catches the eye steve drownes rode it three times and never been sighted so small interest at double figure price..

Aqua gardens 10/1 ppower/victor/lads/racebets.
 
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Newmarket Result
28 Oct 2016
1:20 » BRITISH STALLION STUDS EBF MAIDEN STAKES (PLUS 10 RACE) (DIV I)
(Class 4) (2yo) 7f Row Good
£4,528.30, £1,347.50, £673.40, £336.70
RESULTRATE RACE
Show all comments in runningShow all pedigrees
HORSE/SP AGE WGT TRAINER/JOCKEY OR TS RPR

1 5 Giovanni Battista (IRE) 25/1 2 9-0 Brian Meehan — * *
Jimmy Fortune


2 6 ¾ Leshlaa (USA) 5/1 2 9-0 Saeed bin Suroor — * *
William Buick


« 3 8 5 Founding Father (FR) 13/8F 2 9-0 James Tate — * *
Jim Crowley


« 4 2 1¼ Call Me Grumpy (IRE) 9/1 2 9-0 Roger Varian — * *
Andrea Atzeni


« 5 4 3¼ Blue On Blue (USA) 7/4 2 9-0 h John Gosden — * *
Frankie Dettori


6 7 nk Astute Boy (IRE) 33/1 2 9-0 Ed Vaughan — * *
Frederik Tylicki


7 3 1¾ Salt Whistle Bay (IRE) 25/1 2 9-0 Rae Guest — * *
Pat Cosgrave


8 1 nk Retribution 33/1 2 9-0 David Lanigan — * *
Liam Keniry


8 ran TIME 1m 24.47s (slow by 1.97s)



Giovanni battista


Looks like brian Meehan has found himself something decent with Giovanni battista the front two pulling 5ls clear of the experienced founding father, had come out of a maiden run in a decent time at Windsor but was outclassed in this race I wouldn't even give up on the third as yet maybe a nice handicapper.Giovanni battista made most in this race,didn't look to go to quick early but the fibishing time was very good especially for debut runs,i've hardly put anything up for to follows this season think in general the 2yr olds have been poor and unreliable.I really like the look of this winner,covers griound so effortlessly and great attitude picking up again at finish and going awayA pity having to wait till next season but I think will be group horse next season and one to follow..
 
gigilo said:
1.20 Newmarket

Cashla bay ran in a maiden at haydock in a fast time over 6fs 2nd to eartha kitt had prevooiusly run well at the track in a decent time so form looked well above average,the time of the haydock race was only .49 slower than the older handicap on the card for horses rated upto 90,winner munfallet winning off 87.This could potentially be a red hot maiden especially after the opening maiden at Newmarket today with two horses looking like group horses on debut runs,very unusual too see such hot races near the enhd of season especially 2 days on the bounce.The betting will interesting as the fav with natural improvement you'd have to think was near a 100 horse so if anything can beat it would probably be one of the best debuts of the season.i was hoping she might've just popped up on the aw and would've been thieving money but as this race does have potential in it then she's just worth a small bet.There is always going to be a slight ? over this 7fs as well out of fastnet rock but she's obviously decent and one for next season.I would imagine if nothing is fancied from other stables then will go off odds on..

Cashla bay 13/8 victor/ppower
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KKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAABBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM!!!!!!!:cool: Just keeps on giving..:ninja:
 
N'r the other backed into 13/2 shut up shop now for the week,roll on Monday will have a look at Chelmsford just looks a guessing game to me could be a really good placepot though..
 
sunybay said:
I hope and think that Gigilo will continue posting in the thread

his work is brilliant and i find amazing how someone can post so many winners , especially at this level.

but the forum has 2 positive things for him:

after posting so many winners, many people follows him in market with not high liquidity and he is able to lay some bets

and also we all know what a satisfaction is to provide winners to people and be recognized for it. We all have Our ego
Click to expand...

As you've probably noticed a lot of the bets will just be put up with a price,but on obvious shorteners and ones I know will be heavily backed I will say exactly what price or how much they will contract,something that no one anywhere would even try and do.The beauty of it is 90% of the time i'm right so the early prices aren't really that relevant as long as you can get 70- 75% of the price being layed on betfair following day,i'm sure that is why the thread gets so many views as trading on betfair with those specific picks is impossible to lose infact you can win as much as you like if you've realized by now how accurate I am on those sp predictions.I don't do it because I don't need to if it had been 15 years ago I would be doing it to some degree but I can imagine there's plenty sitting on betfair trading those picks and winning bombs whether they win or lose..
That's the whole point of me pointing out the contractions and sps,i get lots of emails and pms saying I never got the price etc,if you cant get the early prices then stick to the specific picks where i'm hinting at what the contractions and sps will be you can't possibly have a losing bet,i'm prety sure most of the shrewder punters already realize this.You could win far more on these than actually backing the winners outright at best prices..:surrender: would be amazed if not a pretty high % aren't doing this that follow the thread closely..
 
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Redcar 2.10


Flinty fell 12/1 365/victor/lads
11/1 hills/skybet

Flinty fell has throughably unreliable profile,penultimate run was 2nd to marsh pride at musselburugh over the mile the ground slightly on slow side
that piece of form looked very good off a mark of 67 as the 3rd Lincoln rocks over 3ls behind rated 83 and the 4th soundstrings a further 2ls adrift rated 75 both went onto win next time out, Lincoln rocks even came 5th to muff'riha next time out.Flinty fell got a 3 pound rise for that run to 70 which looked more than fair, then ran in a weaker race at Newcastle 10th of 11 so looks as though going to be hard to catch but that run at musselburugh is the best piece of form in the race.Probably one to keep backing if getting double figure prices,if he had come from that musselburugh race to this no doubt woulsdv'e been 4-5/1 tops..Essainaitch ran well at goodwood last time out in a race for horses upto 85 tomorrow drops to a mark of just 70 lowest ever started season on 88 and first time ever in this grade maybe worth a saver as well at 12s with hills and 365/victor

14/1 victor/lads/hills drifting whether that's due to gd/sft ground don't know as never run on it..16s across the board now 25s on betfair strange massive drift..

The drift said it all doubles in price and gets pulled up,havn't had one of those for awhile stunk as soon as early prices never went..

Some ew multiples

5.0 wolves

Ronnie rocket is my cliff horse he just seems impossible tp predict earlier in season was massive eyecatcher behind jacbequick in a race for horses upto 80 but still hasbn't managed to win a race even though plenty of chances in far weaker races.He's now dropped to a mark of 65,last time he dropped into this grade won off this mark September 2015,if he's ever going to run well on the aw will be in a race like this has had 4 runs on the aw not shown a great deal bar a rrespectable 5th to my son max over 7fs here I've taken 14s think he's only 9/1 now its impossible to say whether he's still valut at the prices but even his poorer runs this season give him an ew chance..

6.10 Kempton

Rebel state and music major looks the ones to focus on although a very poor race strictly on the formlines through kens memory music major has best form although rebel state was finishing well over that c/d run and best horse in the race,11/4 is not much of a price gone off short the last twicve but looks alright place side..

Rebel state 11/4 lads/corsls/victor/ppower

1.30 Wolves

There must be a fair chance that rapid ranger will get an easy lead from the 2 draw and could hose up ran a good time at Kempton and showed loads of speed it does look the likeliest result.Am going to go with mr pocket and coles other horse kings academy and hopefully they won't just
drop out the back if fav goes clear and will at least play for the places,mr pockets drawn 8 so there would be an easy excuse especially if fav goes clear but his overall form looks at worst second best in the race a 2nd to kyllang rock on debut,now rated 91 second to evergate at weindsor over 6fs doesn't look a 6f horse.The second to megan lily at Chelmsford now looks far better form than when beat at 1/4 winners now rated 93 and been running in listed class and the 3rd precious plum in the Chelmsford race recently won off 70 now rated 77 mr pocket gave it 8 pound and a 1 3/4l beating.If he gets out on terms from the 8 draw he may give the fav a race.Similarly coles other runner kings academy ran in Chantilly on debut although beaten 5ls that maiden was only .41 slower than the 2yr old conditions race on the card won by Spanish fly rpr of 98 runner up 97 and the third 101.With normal improvement kings academy could figure in shake up,bar fav and mr pocket the others don't look up to much..

Mr pocket 5/1 victor/365/lads/hills Kings academy 7/1 victor/ppower..
 
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Laughable the going report at notts gd gd/sdft probably the fastest the straight tracks been in 10 years the 2.0 5f race fast by 2.28 seconds I suspected the ground would be quick after the mile nursery was only slow by 1.67 seconds as the straight tracks always a lot quicker,have gone through all the sprints but it looks like the runners are good or softer ground horses..times just come up for the class 4 5f 2.30 fast by 1.2 seconds..
 
6.25 Chelmsford

A really competitive handicap with 3 or 4 open to improvement,plus recent form of brigliadoro over c/d and the well handicapped niceofyoutotellme was 8th of 15 off 105 over this c/d last season nit getting a run now dropped to just 90.Charlie fellowes took erhaaf off owen burrows after it made its debut winning run over c/d,carrying welterweight 10-0 beating a fairly moderate field but conceding 20 pound to an 80 rated runner up and beating the third only rated 75 by 1 3/4ls but the time was good especially for what looked a cheeky win once running on at finish.The time of the race .51 quicker than whoops a daisy winning the earlier handicap on the card off 70 carrying 8-8 and erhaaf carrying 20 pound more and 1/2 second quicker with improvement to come.Has now switched stables,has run since bit disappointing at sandown trainers also been out of form but potentially he has a well handicapped horse looking at the run from previous c/d and gets in off 84,this is a really competitive race especially after 97 day break maybe just out for run but I will be following at least short term will give it a few chances as could yet be contesting some nice races later in the aw season.The sire street sense has a 22% strike rate in the aw won the Kentucky derby,he's drifted from early prices and may even drift a lot more yet,there is a possibility of hugh taylor putting this up as the race looked so open the other horses that looked value prices have gone so maybe double figures in the morning and he could well put it up on the clock times and ease of win with sire stats.Obviously could onl;y be a token pick but an interesting horse off this mark,currently 8/1 maybe bigger at around 9am and possibly turn into a reasonable trade especially if hugh taylor puts him up of course he may just drift like a barge but think he's worth a small interest just on potential.

Erhaaf 8/1 victor/skybet/betbright
 
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gigilo said:
6.25 Chelmsford

A really competitive handicap with 3 or 4 open to improvement,plus recent form of brigliadoro over c/d and the well handicapped niceofyoutotellme was 8th of 15 off 105 over this c/d last season nit getting a run now dropped to just 90.Charlie fellowes took erhaaf off owen burrows after it made its debut winning run over c/d,carrying welterweight 10-0 beating a fairly moderate field but conceding 20 pound to an 80 rated runner up and beating the third only rated 75 by 1 3/4ls but the time was good especially for what looked a cheeky win once running on at finish.The time of the race .51 quicker than whoops a daisy winning the earlier handicap on the card off 70 carrying 8-8 and erhaaf carrying 20 pound more and 1/2 second quicker with improvement to come.Has now switched stables,has run since bit disappointing at sandown trainers also been out of form but potentially he has a well handicapped horse looking at the run from previous c/d and gets in off 84,this is a really competitive race especially after 97 day break maybe just out for run but I will be following at least short term will give it a few chances as could yet be contesting some nice races later in the aw season.The sire street sense has a 22% strike rate in the aw won the Kentucky derby,he's drifted from early prices and may even drift a lot more yet,there is a possibility of hugh taylor putting this up as the race looked so open the other horses that looked value prices have gone so maybe double figures in the morning and he could well put it up on the clock times and ease of win with sire stats.Obviously could onl;y be a token pick but an interesting horse off this mark,currently 8/1 maybe bigger at around 9am and possibly turn into a reasonable trade especially if hugh taylor puts him up of course he may just drift like a barge but think he's worth a small interest just on potential.

Erhaaf 8/1 victor/skybet/betbright
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Very unlucky loser couldn't hit it never got one crack on it,cracking ew prices also got 4.0 on betfair for the place and 14s ew only cost 8k...nice race
 
7.55 Chelmsford

Tee it up tommo hasn't won sincve 2014 was rated 80 atb the end of 2014 last win was july that season,has changed trainers a few times and shown no revival in form infact hasn't even hit the frame in last 16 runs trainer has also yet to have a winner from 20 runners and the trip tomorrow ovber 7fs has never won over.He maybe worth a speculative bet as three runs back was an eyecatcher in this grade at Kempton ridden under hand's n heels off 65,on that form looks more than capable of winning a race of sopme sort has even dropped further to just a mark of 58 and the claimer takes off another 7 pound.Syrange he's running over what looks an inadequate trip of 7fs but just based on that run two races ago at 33s you can have a bet at that price,will be watching him closely in this race as he mayb get dropped in grade next time out and be the same price.The obvious runner in the race is faintly still well handicapped won well at Newcastle,if they do go off really quick and tee it up tommo runs to that Kempton form wouldn't surprise of he hir the frame,the race looks very poor..


Tee it up tommo 33/1 365/skybet/victor/betfred/totesport/lads/ppower/sportsbook/betbright

Although I can't see this being a major gamble because of trainer and trip still wouldn't surprise me if halved in price at least..

40/1 victor/corals/ppower/victor/boyles/betstars
 
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Have been avoiding the Newcastle meetings just waiting for the other aw tracks to start proper,the decent times of horses running at nrwcastle just aren't being reproduced on next run here,going to have some small bets there tomorrow see if previous times work out at all, if they don't start following some useful pattern next few meetings will simply put a line through the track as it will become guesswork/So tomorrow a few ew trixies and the second leg looks the best to bet in.

2.10 Newcastle

Bombay dream came out what is looking a decent maiden at haydock he's probably not up to much but was only beaten 6ls in a race run in a very fast time behind eartha kitt 2ns won and the 3rd classical times has been 3rd in a listed race,tomorrow gets dropped a furlong and at least in the place side looks good at 9/4 might give the fav a race..

Bombay dream 9/4 365/totesport/betfred


4.50



Table manners looked quite impressive on Friday although was a terrible race,the time was a second quicker than the other div the drop a furlong tomorrow should be no trouble looks open to improvement with only 7 runs ,the other positive in the race is fire diamond 3rd to faintly tried to make all from a low draw has also only the 8 runs and been dropped a pound.
It's very low grade stuff so will be interesting if their previous times over this c/d and form do work out and that hasn't happened with horses returning here and reproducing it mr potter ran in the second div on same night as table manners actually has a 7 pound pull for 3ls so might be worth adding him in for forecasts..

Table manners 4/1 365/totesport/skbet 5/1 sportsbook Firediamond 4/1 365/skybet/sportsbook


5.50

A couple to make up the trixies would be very small fancys,fujin ran ok here off this msrk rtecently when running 5th only beaten 1 3/4ls is really a swell horse off high enough mark as well but at least has that track run and Charlie benntett takes off 5 pound.Then there ios the rogue Malaysian boleh put him up a few times earlier in the sesson was eyecatcher a few times then went and won at brighton and wasn't on hom,he ran 4th to sligsby lsst time out over c/d in a good time if he copuld run to that form again then the 12/1 would be a big price....Clublands absolutely chucked in this race and ran in a race for horses rated upto 80 over 5fs here last time out so could well sluice up it's one I've been waiting for but just couldn't bring myself to back it at 11/2,see its getting smashed off the boards am not surprised though..

Fujin 9/1 365 Malaysian boleh 12/1 365/skybet/sportsbook
 
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gigilo said:
Have been avoiding the Newcastle meetings just waiting for the other aw tracks to start proper,the decent times of horses running at nrwcastle just aren't being reproduced on next run here,going to have some small bets there tomorrow see if previous times work out at all, if they don't start following some useful pattern next few meetings will simply put a line through the track as it will become guesswork/So tomorrow a few ew trixies and the second leg looks the best to bet in.

2.10 Newcastle

Bombay dream came out what is looking a decent maiden at haydock he's probably not up to much but was only beaten 6ls in a race run in a very fast time behind eartha kitt 2ns won and the 3rd classical times has been 3rd in a listed race,tomorrow gets dropped a furlong and at least in the place side looks good at 9/4 might give the fav a race..

Bombay dream 9/4 365/totesport/betfred


4.50



Table manners looked quite impressive on Friday although was a terrible race,the time was a second quicker than the other div the drop a furlong tomorrow should be no trouble looks open to improvement with only 7 runs ,the other positive in the race is fire diamond 3rd to faintly tried to make all from a low draw has also only the 8 runs and been dropped a pound.
It's very low grade stuff so will be interesting if their previous times over this c/d and form do work out and that hasn't happened with horses returning here and reproducing it mr potter ran in the second div on same night as table manners actually has a 7 pound pull for 3ls so might be worth adding him in for forecasts..

Table manners 4/1 365/totesport/skbet 5/1 sportsbook Firediamond 4/1 365/skybet/sportsbook


KKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAABBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM!!!!Who's the daddy got the lot only decent betting race of the day and the firecast for good measure difgferent gravy!!!Got almost 11/2 as well!!!


5.50

A couple to make up the trixies would be very small fancys,fujin ran ok here off this msrk rtecently when running 5th only beaten 1 3/4ls is really a swell horse off high enough mark as well but at least has that track run and Charlie benntett takes off 5 pound.Then there ios the rogue Malaysian boleh put him up a few times earlier in the sesson was eyecatcher a few times then went and won at brighton and wasn't on hom,he ran 4th to sligsby lsst time out over c/d in a good time if he copuld run to that form again then the 12/1 would be a big price....Clublands absolutely chucked in this race and ran in a race for horses rated upto 80 over 5fs here last time out so could well sluice up it's one I've been waiting for but just couldn't bring myself to back it at 11/2,see its getting smashed off the boards am not surprised though..

Fujin 9/1 365 Malaysian boleh 12/1 365/skybet/sportsbook
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