gigilo
Senior Jockey
- Joined
- May 5, 2011
- Messages
- 9,796
Going to be some speculative picks being first swell meeting back i could easily pick three a race if i get time will do write up so small ew multis won't be able to perm them too many bets.
Southwell 12.35
Showboating 14/1 sportsbook/ppower 12/1 365
Showboating is undoubtedly on downgrade worst turf season although still has been running ok in slightly better races than tomorrows, horse is only going to go further down the ratings now an 11yr old.He ran two 5ths and a 3rd in class 4s on the turf this season only late september the 3rd in a 0-80,before turf season started was rated 86 at one point on the aw during 2017 but now running off just 66 in a 0-70,only have to go back to january when 4th in a 0-90 over tomorrows c/d..He's going to win a race this season off these marks even based on those turf runs and worth following through the aw season as its quite posssible could win a couple, even if not tomorrow there are some really interesting horses in this race and might have to wait for a similar race but still interesting pricewise,the negative has always been pace and only now ten runners with two not running.
The favourite out of medicean could be anything,Weld al emarat is very interesting for mick easterby won first ever run over this c/d and was actually faster on the day than sae grade handicap as tomorrows on same day even as 2yr old debut,so is potentially very well handicapped and has been rated 95 on the turf this could still be a nice swell aw horse and only runs off 70 tomorrow after tumbling in weights(11/2).Even fieldsman(16/1) couldn't be discounted doesn't win very often but was rated in mid 70s when running in 0-75s over c/d last season and placing,running off just 65 another ew chance,a very decent looking 0-70..
1.05
Honey g 6/1 365 corals/lads/totesport/betfred/ppower/sportsbook Fareeq 6/1 sportsbook/ppower 5/1 betfred/totesport..
Fareeq is a c/d winner won off this mark of 60 last season and then went off 13/8 fav in a 0-65 beaten by tan progressive horse from appleby stable,honey g has no fibresand form but been slightly poigressive on the turf,runs tomorrow off 57 after coming second in a 0-65..Sire Sir prancealot has 21% strike rate on this surface so no reason why shouldn't run well in a 0-60..Miningold(12/1) was rated 76 2017 been on downgrade but hasn't run on this surface out of decent sire piccolo and only runs off 51 a recent 4th to lucky lodge winner again since gives it every chance.
It really looks the same as the two above probably better if you took its best form and revised mark but as said races are so competitve really can only play at peanuts and maybe some forecasts.
1.40
Homebefore dusk 11/8 generally..6/4 unibet/marathonbet
Really would only pick this because of recent form,out of medicean so bred to go on surface the danger would be knighted and bred to on surface as well and especioally over these trips,its best form is as good as the favs just recent not so good but lee has rode it before but better jock on knighted now...
2.15
Cousin khee 10/1 sportsbook/ppower 9/1 skybet 15/2 betfred/totesport Katie gale11/1 365 10/1 skybet/victor/ppower/corla/totesport/betfred/boyles
Lots of new horses running on fibresand makes a race for new horses to follow,on last seasons form in this grade and better cousin khee and katie gale would have ew chances,but they are veterans now at 11 and 8 so although they are still capable of picking up races there maybe better opportunitys later in season.Cousin khee runs off 69 tomorrow,shown nothing on turf won two races here at swell over 2m2fs last season off 63 and 67 although 7 pound claimer was on so not well handicapped on those wins particularly,but last run here was in a 0-80 had tomorrows topweight and katie gale in behind these three drop into a 0-70 tomorrow,after turf form needs to show ability is there still..
Katie gale as said was behind by 3 3/4ls behind cousin khee staying on,earlier in season was 3 3/4ls behind cousin khee in one of his wins but has weight turn around to be closely matched,again has had long lay off 138 days another runner to be following in future off dropping marks could be a big drifter tomorrow out for run so betting will be informative..the fact their form is in this grade or better against horses that have to prove themselves on surface then they would be token bets with lack of run and turf form.Buonarotti i've been following and suppose its the obvious pick dropped in class been running well consistent all season,ran well in 0-75 last time out, this track could well suit so wouldn't discount as that turf form is as good as most of cousin khees or katie gales..
Will be betting to a 1/5 of normal stakes,cards just too competitive as have other picks in the races as well although i thionk its a great notebook meeting for horses to follow..
2.45
Mr strutter 12/1 sportbook/ppower/tptesport/betfred Lucky beggar 14/1 sportsbook/ppower 8/1 totesport/betfred
Declamation looked to be improving last season and could win this and essential ran well in a 0-70 here as well last season both obvious chances,two very speculative picks, one lucky beggar never wins and impossible to predict also drawn out in the car park tomorrow in 12 runs well in races it looks to have no chance then drops in grade and runs poorly has never been one to trust..Even last time out ran in a class 4 at catterick in a 0-85 was 5th only beaten 3 1/2ls,last run here was late august in a 0-70 finished third over c/d off 72 tomorrow off just 65 in a 0-65 thoroughly unreliable but on paper at least a decent ew chance.
Mr strutter would be even more speculative as hasn't been as good on aw surfaces 0/13 but its turf form has been decent a third in a 0-75 this season off 69 and a second to dirchill in a 0-75 has run recently at newcastle beaten off 60...in a 0-60..He won't be winning on that form but interesting is first run at swell sire sir prancelot is 21% strike rate on this surface so off just a mark of 61 with 7 pound claimer could be interesting,if stable thinks this is his surface and could run to turf marks then obviously would be well handicapped..pretty sure he won't be winning on tapeta or poly so worth trying this surface with sire,betting will be really interesting..
3.20
Victoria drummond 9/2 sportsbook/ppower
Some well handicapped horses in here Tommy doc thrown in off 80 on old form still only 6 with 15 runs was rated 95 at one point on comeback trail wouldn't be a shock if won this sort of race and interesting brought back to swell where well beaten last season...Victoria drummond of mark johnstons had three runs won at chelmsford last time out,form looked mediocre through the second so gets a mark of 79,only pointer that it could be well handicapped is if you ignore the second in that race while the third kelpie was over 5ls behind was only beat 4ls on saturday night at chelmsford in a class 2...It could be false form and as of writing not a [penny for the johnston horse,just looks interesting through sire sea the stars a 50% strike rate on the fibresand although i'm pretty sure if its well handicapped would be smashed off the boards in race like this..
Quite a strange race as favs sire stats are poor even though best recent form,although only small sample and than you have the jihnston horse a bit to prove so horses like tommy doc,amazing michele potentially could be overpriced an interesting race but a bit of guesswork without more track form..
Don't discount karaezak as well hasn't run for three years but rated 150 over hurdles and trainer very interestingl;y givong it a run here,hadn't looked at this runner when i did the form as saw the three year gap but that rating on the sticks would not surpriose me if showed up well...
Southwell 12.35
Showboating 14/1 sportsbook/ppower 12/1 365
Showboating is undoubtedly on downgrade worst turf season although still has been running ok in slightly better races than tomorrows, horse is only going to go further down the ratings now an 11yr old.He ran two 5ths and a 3rd in class 4s on the turf this season only late september the 3rd in a 0-80,before turf season started was rated 86 at one point on the aw during 2017 but now running off just 66 in a 0-70,only have to go back to january when 4th in a 0-90 over tomorrows c/d..He's going to win a race this season off these marks even based on those turf runs and worth following through the aw season as its quite posssible could win a couple, even if not tomorrow there are some really interesting horses in this race and might have to wait for a similar race but still interesting pricewise,the negative has always been pace and only now ten runners with two not running.
The favourite out of medicean could be anything,Weld al emarat is very interesting for mick easterby won first ever run over this c/d and was actually faster on the day than sae grade handicap as tomorrows on same day even as 2yr old debut,so is potentially very well handicapped and has been rated 95 on the turf this could still be a nice swell aw horse and only runs off 70 tomorrow after tumbling in weights(11/2).Even fieldsman(16/1) couldn't be discounted doesn't win very often but was rated in mid 70s when running in 0-75s over c/d last season and placing,running off just 65 another ew chance,a very decent looking 0-70..
1.05
Honey g 6/1 365 corals/lads/totesport/betfred/ppower/sportsbook Fareeq 6/1 sportsbook/ppower 5/1 betfred/totesport..
Fareeq is a c/d winner won off this mark of 60 last season and then went off 13/8 fav in a 0-65 beaten by tan progressive horse from appleby stable,honey g has no fibresand form but been slightly poigressive on the turf,runs tomorrow off 57 after coming second in a 0-65..Sire Sir prancealot has 21% strike rate on this surface so no reason why shouldn't run well in a 0-60..Miningold(12/1) was rated 76 2017 been on downgrade but hasn't run on this surface out of decent sire piccolo and only runs off 51 a recent 4th to lucky lodge winner again since gives it every chance.
It really looks the same as the two above probably better if you took its best form and revised mark but as said races are so competitve really can only play at peanuts and maybe some forecasts.
1.40
Homebefore dusk 11/8 generally..6/4 unibet/marathonbet
Really would only pick this because of recent form,out of medicean so bred to go on surface the danger would be knighted and bred to on surface as well and especioally over these trips,its best form is as good as the favs just recent not so good but lee has rode it before but better jock on knighted now...
2.15
Cousin khee 10/1 sportsbook/ppower 9/1 skybet 15/2 betfred/totesport Katie gale11/1 365 10/1 skybet/victor/ppower/corla/totesport/betfred/boyles
Lots of new horses running on fibresand makes a race for new horses to follow,on last seasons form in this grade and better cousin khee and katie gale would have ew chances,but they are veterans now at 11 and 8 so although they are still capable of picking up races there maybe better opportunitys later in season.Cousin khee runs off 69 tomorrow,shown nothing on turf won two races here at swell over 2m2fs last season off 63 and 67 although 7 pound claimer was on so not well handicapped on those wins particularly,but last run here was in a 0-80 had tomorrows topweight and katie gale in behind these three drop into a 0-70 tomorrow,after turf form needs to show ability is there still..
Katie gale as said was behind by 3 3/4ls behind cousin khee staying on,earlier in season was 3 3/4ls behind cousin khee in one of his wins but has weight turn around to be closely matched,again has had long lay off 138 days another runner to be following in future off dropping marks could be a big drifter tomorrow out for run so betting will be informative..the fact their form is in this grade or better against horses that have to prove themselves on surface then they would be token bets with lack of run and turf form.Buonarotti i've been following and suppose its the obvious pick dropped in class been running well consistent all season,ran well in 0-75 last time out, this track could well suit so wouldn't discount as that turf form is as good as most of cousin khees or katie gales..
Will be betting to a 1/5 of normal stakes,cards just too competitive as have other picks in the races as well although i thionk its a great notebook meeting for horses to follow..
2.45
Mr strutter 12/1 sportbook/ppower/tptesport/betfred Lucky beggar 14/1 sportsbook/ppower 8/1 totesport/betfred
Declamation looked to be improving last season and could win this and essential ran well in a 0-70 here as well last season both obvious chances,two very speculative picks, one lucky beggar never wins and impossible to predict also drawn out in the car park tomorrow in 12 runs well in races it looks to have no chance then drops in grade and runs poorly has never been one to trust..Even last time out ran in a class 4 at catterick in a 0-85 was 5th only beaten 3 1/2ls,last run here was late august in a 0-70 finished third over c/d off 72 tomorrow off just 65 in a 0-65 thoroughly unreliable but on paper at least a decent ew chance.
Mr strutter would be even more speculative as hasn't been as good on aw surfaces 0/13 but its turf form has been decent a third in a 0-75 this season off 69 and a second to dirchill in a 0-75 has run recently at newcastle beaten off 60...in a 0-60..He won't be winning on that form but interesting is first run at swell sire sir prancelot is 21% strike rate on this surface so off just a mark of 61 with 7 pound claimer could be interesting,if stable thinks this is his surface and could run to turf marks then obviously would be well handicapped..pretty sure he won't be winning on tapeta or poly so worth trying this surface with sire,betting will be really interesting..
3.20
Victoria drummond 9/2 sportsbook/ppower
Some well handicapped horses in here Tommy doc thrown in off 80 on old form still only 6 with 15 runs was rated 95 at one point on comeback trail wouldn't be a shock if won this sort of race and interesting brought back to swell where well beaten last season...Victoria drummond of mark johnstons had three runs won at chelmsford last time out,form looked mediocre through the second so gets a mark of 79,only pointer that it could be well handicapped is if you ignore the second in that race while the third kelpie was over 5ls behind was only beat 4ls on saturday night at chelmsford in a class 2...It could be false form and as of writing not a [penny for the johnston horse,just looks interesting through sire sea the stars a 50% strike rate on the fibresand although i'm pretty sure if its well handicapped would be smashed off the boards in race like this..
Quite a strange race as favs sire stats are poor even though best recent form,although only small sample and than you have the jihnston horse a bit to prove so horses like tommy doc,amazing michele potentially could be overpriced an interesting race but a bit of guesswork without more track form..
Don't discount karaezak as well hasn't run for three years but rated 150 over hurdles and trainer very interestingl;y givong it a run here,hadn't looked at this runner when i did the form as saw the three year gap but that rating on the sticks would not surpriose me if showed up well...
Last edited:
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ed it at 10s...
