Another couple of very competitive cards at swell and newcastle,nothing special at prices although another meeting for the notebook with loads of new runners...
2.40
Bond angel 5/1 365 11/2 skybet/lads/victor/corals/totesport/betfred 6/1 ppower/sportsbook
Bond angel first time on fibresand winning a hands and heels appprentice race for horses rated upto 60,was a weak race but won by 8ls over the 7fs couldv'e been 12ls winning off 46 with 5 pound claim riding,tomorrow runs off 56 with gina mangan takling off 7 pound/..so still off 49.
Tomorrows class is a 0-65 with lots that are capable in grade a very competitve race on paper,horses also like sultan barbers first time on fibresand chucked in and out of decent sure invincible spirit along with earl of bunnacurry favourite tomorrow upped in weights after two wins one over cd they could easily be involved in finish maybe some forecasts,fav looks the obvious one with win here beating shearian previous run in far better time than some of the others in market from a different div on same day..the one to beat..real battler the fav so bond angel might trade very short in running..
Bond angel although only winning that poor race the time was the quickest on the card,compared favourably to the two 0-65s on the card that day over a mile,there's definitely more races off 56 negatives are gina mangan judging pace of race over a furlong further and bouncd factor,a high % of big distance winners at swell reappear and bomb out...Despite that the horse looks one to follow for awhile even if it were to bomb out tomorrow i wouldn't be leaving it on future runs as this is its surface looks far better tha on turf..
6/1 generally now,think if prices hold up or bigger hugh taylor may put iot up as well even though fav is obvious pick..
Hugh taylor never put it up but andy holding did,usually stops trains...interesting ride coming up here 9.8 from 4/1 looks like daves laying the balls off it had a nasty feeling it might happen with her riding.
Drifts to 10.5 and misses the break,what a surprise one of the most blatant i;ve seen in months and i said in wruite uo it ran far quicker than the 0-65s last time out,the first three in todays race were all in those 0-65s as well on same day,don't know how evans gets away with it don't think i've ever seenj the horse ever not lead disgraceful..Bond angel ran the fastest furlong times throughout the card that day and comes out of stalls last today,am sure he puts these jocks on to get them beat out of sight,betting told you everything,thats the problem betting his horses just impossible to know what they are going to do..
3.10
Alpha tauri 8/1 365/lads/corals/victor/blacktype/corals.. 9/1 ppower/sportsbook/
Alpha tauri was second to bond angel in that weak looking 0-60 and beaten 8ls but had to concede 20 pounds to a horse that looks well handicapped still,he was coming back from a six month break the veteran 12 now had been last in the four races before that break so looked likely never to win again..
That race on comeback run was over 7fs tomorrow steps upto a mile more preferable,would be hard to be very confident hasn't won since may 2017 but as above i thought the time of that race looked quite good even though was beaten a long way and this is again the second div of the 0-65s so up in class..The jockey am not keen on although did ok on it in that run and gets to take another 7 pound off so just off 53,it looks at some point he is going to win again even if not tomorrow,just needs to repeat the form to be involved at finish...Alpha tauri was 3rd off 70 back in february at swell so 17 puond lower than tomorrow,very doubtful he can run to that mark again but at least showing retains some ability..Suppose Boots n spurs looks the obvious picks like alpha tauri on massive downgrade his marks now as good as he is but still got an obvious chance and soooqaan was a big improver last season ran some decent times now reasonable mark maybe try some forecasts..etc.
12/1 365/lads/vivtor/betway/sportongbet,marathonbet 12/1 generally. obviously not expected to run well looking at that drift..
16s now on betfair got 16/1 will settle for that,just shows how good the bond angel form was no damage very good month finished..
This month winners
6/1,8/1,9/2,12/1,10/1,11/2 but loads of places most days getting stakes back or small loss,plus advised forecasts 80,90 and 24 was also a tricast in there never included in figures,plus multiples wouldv'e been winners also not included, very consistent picks lately makes a nice ROI 100% deliberately bet last few days not so to go under the 100 !Trying not to have too many bets and keep the ROI around the 100 mark..