gigilo
Senior Jockey
- Joined
- May 5, 2011
- Messages
- 9,796
Hasn't been much to go at on the aw recently,southwell tomorrow again a very competitve card so will just be smallb bets for me and some multiples some of the ones that look obvious on swell form havn't been running well and the track even though been loads of rain has been running on slow side..nothing at [prices warrants any decent bets,have really just done them on last seasons aw form..
Southwell 12.50
Epeius 7/2 marathonbet/betfair 10/30 sportsbook/365/victor/ppower Kommander kirkup 4/1 sportsbook/ppower/skybet/lads/hills/victor/skybet/betfred/totesport
Kommander kirkup won a weak handicap last time out if that's as good as he is now then would struggle to win this better claimer giving away weight to horses rated superior at weights,last season though when hit form did win off 71 in a 0-75 so on that form would be favourite in this race on known swell aw form...question mark is will horse show that better form now its won.
Epeius has been running well in better races at newcastle was clear with lucky lodge at newcastle in a 0-70 last time out 4 1/2ls back to third first excel,first excel just touched off by kommander kirkup last time out at the weights then epeius would have something in hand again ? on surface only one run over c/d was mediocre but long time ago...The appleby horse point zero has been disappointing the last twice,but its run three runs back over 5fs was a quick time only .50 second slower than a class 3 handicap on the same card,impossible to predict now these appleby horses maybe put in for some forecasts as definitely in right sort of race.
1.20
Gabrials star 12/1 365 Epitaph 12/1 365 20/1 generally now,not surprised on recent runs as write up
Gabrials star has some very good track form and decent times last season won off 70 by 11ls over 2 mile,then followed up with two claiming wins one over 1m6fs and another over 1m4fs and in decent times,has since joined the marjorie fife stable not showm much in four runs but back on favoured surface..Has a bit to prove now but would have a decent ew chance at the very worst in this grade on last seasons swell form,on the best of it would be favourite on swell form shown so far.
Epitaph seems to have regressed last season was runner up to cosmelli in a very quick time over 1m4fs since then has not been the same horse,currently 1/35 runs as well has had impossible tasks last two runs behind victoria drummond and last time out a 1m4f race the time was very good suggesting the first three were horses to follow,.Think its worth trying over the extra two furlongs more likely to bomb out completely and race has lots of unexposed runners,could run ok if on a going day..although has been no confidence in it lately betting wise drifting like a barge most races...
1.50
Archimedes 9/2 365 7/2 sportsbook/ppower
Archimedes hasn't shown much in recent runs although back in right grade tomorrow won three c/d races last season off 58,61 and 66 drops into a 0-60 for first time since winning off 58,nothing in tomorows prices on recent form but would be favourite on best of last seasons form..Honey g and divine call both won on same card two runs back strictly at the weights and times of divisions there's nothing between the pair on times so might be worth doing some forecasts..Maybe no show archimedes with price being so short but one to follow in this grade..lots of horses just coming back to surface so you may have to wait a run or two before stable try at prices.
Saver on divine call can't believe it drifted to 12/1 i had it dead heating with fav from same day when they ran in different divs saved the day anyway was only 6/1 last niht and the forecast as well,unbelieveable prices sp was 15/2 9.0 betfairsp hope you had a saver or at least forecast wouldv'e been trivast in another 50 yards,ran well archimedes just gave them too much start ..there's nearly always something that saves the day,,£29 CSF,.
2.20
Hammer gun 7/1 13/2 ppower
Hammer gun similar to archimedes, on best of last seasons form standing dish at swell,but six weeks off last season 4/1/4/1/4/2/1 off marks of
81,76,82,79,82 and then winning off 84 in a 0-90 at 10/30 drops into a0 -80 tomorrow,so on nearly all of its form would be decent ew chance at the very worst and would be favourite at best..I suspect this will either be primed or just buried,stable havn't had a winner for awhile either but another for notebook..if no show
3.20
Decoration of war 5/1 365/victor 5/1 generally Mametz wood 11/2 hills/victor 5/1 generally
Decoration of war maybe exposed now beaten a couple of times at short prices,now switched to appleby stable has still run ok but needs to raise level of form appleby has bought him probably hoping for improvement being out of declaration of war sire has a 60% strike rate on surface so
possibilities..Mametz wood don't know what to make of last run,has run over the c/d as 2yr old form was weak,then beaten in a maiden by an appleby horse last time out, the time seemed to be quick on a slow surface going under 1m42 faster than tomorrows field have run this season so far,it's one of those times that look a bit conspicuous on previous runs and form currently 0/10...They could be interesting runners,they might just bomb out but with a sire stat like the one and time of another hard not to give them a chance,betting will be interesting the pair,drifts would tell you they are not expecting them to improve in a race where runners are exposed.
Doesn't look a winning card to me,giving nothing away on prices on horses that need to come back to form although right races,they are the ones to follow in these grade races for time being..so have to do something just incase so just done 1/4 stakes..
Other couple of races the 11.50 Lexikons the only horse you could back on what little form there is maysons 35% on surface and has decent draw
should be free bet in running there at worst and the 2.50 Earl of bunacurry and mr cocoa bean they look exposed in this race will run thier races though and a rag like regular income 25/1 generally would be a possibility trainer has few winners but wouldn't be a shock if ran well if going on surface has dropped in weights.sire has had winners..
Rubbish today,althouigh am not surprised nothing in prices,most of them drifted like barges and were coincidentally out the back of the telly nearly every runner had a feeling it might happen just have to keep followiong them as horses in right grades,obviously stables looking fior bigger prices..Had a nice saver at 12/1 though and 29 csf so not to damage done at 1/4 stakes.
Southwell 12.50
Epeius 7/2 marathonbet/betfair 10/30 sportsbook/365/victor/ppower Kommander kirkup 4/1 sportsbook/ppower/skybet/lads/hills/victor/skybet/betfred/totesport
Kommander kirkup won a weak handicap last time out if that's as good as he is now then would struggle to win this better claimer giving away weight to horses rated superior at weights,last season though when hit form did win off 71 in a 0-75 so on that form would be favourite in this race on known swell aw form...question mark is will horse show that better form now its won.
Epeius has been running well in better races at newcastle was clear with lucky lodge at newcastle in a 0-70 last time out 4 1/2ls back to third first excel,first excel just touched off by kommander kirkup last time out at the weights then epeius would have something in hand again ? on surface only one run over c/d was mediocre but long time ago...The appleby horse point zero has been disappointing the last twice,but its run three runs back over 5fs was a quick time only .50 second slower than a class 3 handicap on the same card,impossible to predict now these appleby horses maybe put in for some forecasts as definitely in right sort of race.
1.20
Gabrials star 12/1 365 Epitaph 12/1 365 20/1 generally now,not surprised on recent runs as write up
Gabrials star has some very good track form and decent times last season won off 70 by 11ls over 2 mile,then followed up with two claiming wins one over 1m6fs and another over 1m4fs and in decent times,has since joined the marjorie fife stable not showm much in four runs but back on favoured surface..Has a bit to prove now but would have a decent ew chance at the very worst in this grade on last seasons swell form,on the best of it would be favourite on swell form shown so far.
Epitaph seems to have regressed last season was runner up to cosmelli in a very quick time over 1m4fs since then has not been the same horse,currently 1/35 runs as well has had impossible tasks last two runs behind victoria drummond and last time out a 1m4f race the time was very good suggesting the first three were horses to follow,.Think its worth trying over the extra two furlongs more likely to bomb out completely and race has lots of unexposed runners,could run ok if on a going day..although has been no confidence in it lately betting wise drifting like a barge most races...
1.50
Archimedes 9/2 365 7/2 sportsbook/ppower
Archimedes hasn't shown much in recent runs although back in right grade tomorrow won three c/d races last season off 58,61 and 66 drops into a 0-60 for first time since winning off 58,nothing in tomorows prices on recent form but would be favourite on best of last seasons form..Honey g and divine call both won on same card two runs back strictly at the weights and times of divisions there's nothing between the pair on times so might be worth doing some forecasts..Maybe no show archimedes with price being so short but one to follow in this grade..lots of horses just coming back to surface so you may have to wait a run or two before stable try at prices.
Saver on divine call can't believe it drifted to 12/1 i had it dead heating with fav from same day when they ran in different divs saved the day anyway was only 6/1 last niht and the forecast as well,unbelieveable prices sp was 15/2 9.0 betfairsp hope you had a saver or at least forecast wouldv'e been trivast in another 50 yards,ran well archimedes just gave them too much start ..there's nearly always something that saves the day,,£29 CSF,.
2.20
Hammer gun 7/1 13/2 ppower
Hammer gun similar to archimedes, on best of last seasons form standing dish at swell,but six weeks off last season 4/1/4/1/4/2/1 off marks of
81,76,82,79,82 and then winning off 84 in a 0-90 at 10/30 drops into a0 -80 tomorrow,so on nearly all of its form would be decent ew chance at the very worst and would be favourite at best..I suspect this will either be primed or just buried,stable havn't had a winner for awhile either but another for notebook..if no show
3.20
Decoration of war 5/1 365/victor 5/1 generally Mametz wood 11/2 hills/victor 5/1 generally
Decoration of war maybe exposed now beaten a couple of times at short prices,now switched to appleby stable has still run ok but needs to raise level of form appleby has bought him probably hoping for improvement being out of declaration of war sire has a 60% strike rate on surface so
possibilities..Mametz wood don't know what to make of last run,has run over the c/d as 2yr old form was weak,then beaten in a maiden by an appleby horse last time out, the time seemed to be quick on a slow surface going under 1m42 faster than tomorrows field have run this season so far,it's one of those times that look a bit conspicuous on previous runs and form currently 0/10...They could be interesting runners,they might just bomb out but with a sire stat like the one and time of another hard not to give them a chance,betting will be interesting the pair,drifts would tell you they are not expecting them to improve in a race where runners are exposed.
Doesn't look a winning card to me,giving nothing away on prices on horses that need to come back to form although right races,they are the ones to follow in these grade races for time being..so have to do something just incase so just done 1/4 stakes..
Other couple of races the 11.50 Lexikons the only horse you could back on what little form there is maysons 35% on surface and has decent draw
should be free bet in running there at worst and the 2.50 Earl of bunacurry and mr cocoa bean they look exposed in this race will run thier races though and a rag like regular income 25/1 generally would be a possibility trainer has few winners but wouldn't be a shock if ran well if going on surface has dropped in weights.sire has had winners..
Rubbish today,althouigh am not surprised nothing in prices,most of them drifted like barges and were coincidentally out the back of the telly nearly every runner had a feeling it might happen just have to keep followiong them as horses in right grades,obviously stables looking fior bigger prices..Had a nice saver at 12/1 though and 29 csf so not to damage done at 1/4 stakes.
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