Daily picks.

Terrific tipping again giggsy, would be fascinating to know how much you can actually get on at these prices overnight though? Can't believe that 365 haven't blocked you yet or offered you a job!:)
 
Superb again Andy - I did leave a bet on this on betfair overnight but never got matched - wish I'd taken the 11.0 that was available at the time now.
 
Won't be doing a full to follows list this season as i don't have time with new baby and trying to bet and keep it updated,so will put some on here but hope anyone who backs them uses common sense i taking prices!!;)

I've never had a season whereby at this point i havn't got at least a dozen guaranteed group winners usually there are certain races that you can use on the clock and its quite simple using the time comparisons.There has been very little to go on most of the form on soft going and the faster going hasn't produced any times of significance.Today was the first real good time on the clock by AHERN running 59.28 outpaced and for a 2yr old on debut to come off the pace at musselburugh massive eyecatcher.
The 2.55 on the card was won bu 96 rated bajan tryst in 59.84 had to double check this the time difference .56 in favour of the 2yr olds,last season frederick engels won the same race in a time .11 quicker than last years winner burning thread.A very interesting time comparison,remembering this was aherns debut as opposed to frederick engels third.
The form also looks rock solid satsuma ran almost as quick as the older handicappers at catterick on debut and the favourite in the 2yr old race today only ran .41 slower than mayoman winning off 82 on debut run.He sluiced up eventually and with improvement to come looks an automtaic group winner and probably the first real interesting runner i've seen.
The fact its slightly less fashionable trainer and will be taking on hannons and o'briens he maybe overpriced if entered at ascot etc,no entry in the coventry which to me looks a poor race.He will probably be in the norfolk maybe even weaker and any prices around i think i will be backing as soon as possible
 
Andy, love your time comparisons from the same card like this, but where does the 59.01 run by Bosun Breese from 9-3 (75-5) fit into these comparisons as 0.83 secs faster than Bajan Trysts race 9-10(96) and 0.27 secs faster than Aherns?
 
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Wasn't going to mention that till a later date stew as obviously that horse is ridiculously well handicapped winning by 6ls and miles beyond its mark.Looks like another to follow all depending what mark its given beating 77 horse by 6ls.Would be impossible to back against in same conditions.;)
 
The other cenario could be that the track was getting quicker as the day went on which would mean aherns run was even better!!!!:lol:But not sure what the weather was doing there so will just take the times at face value!1:cool:
 
interesting 3 sprints

Bosun Breeze has won easily before when racing off 75..that was back in 08 though

if BB ran to a mark of 85..BJ ran to 98

BB = 85 carrying 9-3 in 59.01
BJ = 98 carrying 9-10 in 59.84



at levels BJ would probably run 0.48 faster..59.36 makes BB in comparison a 106 horse??

this makes it very hard to rate the 2yo race;)

do they use 0.2seconds per length when assessing beaten distance in sprints or have they changed it?

ignoring BB and using the 2nd Rasaman..and assuming he finished 1.2 seconds behind BB

Rasaman = 77 carrying 9-10 = 60.21
BJ = 98 carrying 9-10 in 59.84

so rasaman has run 10lbs slower than BJ which to me suggests that BJ's race wasn't a solid pace and doesn't reflect its mark

comparing AHERN to Rasaman who seems the reliable effort here

Rasaman = 77 carrying 9-10 = 60.21
AHERN = carrying 8-8 in 59.28

weight correct makes AHERN a 61..time correct makes him 82

frederick Engels was about 3lb faster than Burning Thread last year..BT carried 9-1 and was a 97 performance..FE carried 4 less..so basically FE ran a 96 which is unreal really
 
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God these time comparisons are so complicated, you lost me on your 1st sentence EC1:lol:, take it you're just assuming that BB ran to 85? Do you take into account the 5lb jockey allowance or not as i only do figures on a weight carried basis and ignore the actual jockey! Will compare jocks when they run next time. The one thing that strikes me to come out of these races is the very interesting race that Fama Mac ran lto when backed off the boards over what looked an inadequate trip!
To me this type of discussion is what a forum should be all about.
 
Simpson Jersey said:
God these time comparisons are so complicated, you lost me on your 1st sentence EC1:lol:, take it you're just assuming that BB ran to 85? Do you take into account the 5lb jockey allowance or not as i only do figures on a weight carried basis and ignore the actual jockey! Will compare jocks when they run next time. The one thing that strikes me to come out of these races is the very interesting race that Fama Mac ran lto when backed off the boards over what looked an inadequate trip!
To me this type of discussion is what a forum should be all about.
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no.. i removed BB from the equation..i have used the 2nd horse as the "marker"....as i can't make head nor tale of BB :lol:

i use the weight from the RP results which does remove the allowances
 
do they use 0.2seconds per length when assessing beaten distance in sprints or have they changed it?

ignoring BB and using the 2nd Rasaman..and assuming he finished 1.2 seconds behind BB

Rasaman = 77 carrying 9-10 = 60.21
BJ = 98 carrying 9-10 in 59.84

so rasaman has run 10lbs slower than BJ which to me suggests that BJ's race wasn't a solid pace and doesn't reflect its mark

How do you get to say that Rasaman has run 10lb slower than Bajan Tryst? From the same weight has run 0.37 secs slower which to me suggests about 2 lengths(6lbs)?
 
Simpson Jersey said:
do they use 0.2seconds per length when assessing beaten distance in sprints or have they changed it?

ignoring BB and using the 2nd Rasaman..and assuming he finished 1.2 seconds behind BB

Rasaman = 77 carrying 9-10 = 60.21
BJ = 98 carrying 9-10 in 59.84

so rasaman has run 10lbs slower than BJ which to me suggests that BJ's race wasn't a solid pace and doesn't reflect its mark

How do you get to say that Rasaman has run 10lb slower than Bajan Tryst? From the same weight has run 0.37 secs slower which to me suggests about 2 lengths(6lbs)?
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0.37 converted to per mile by dividing by .625..then divide the per mile time by 0.0666..it actually works out at 9lb not 10

at a mile 1lb = 0.0666..i just prefer to work per mile..alternatively you could just divide 0.37 by 0.04 which is a 1lb at 5f
 
The main thing is you've got three sprints on that card and a 16 horse handicap horses rated to 96 so impossible to knock the times.Ahern could easily be another 12 pound better than that run on top as well at least and all the formlines through satsuma and rhagori aur point to it being one of the best runs of the season.I'd be more concerned about the rest of the 2yr olds this season as there's been nothing worth noting,i went through the coventry entries last night and that race looked very poor for betting on.
 
Lucky dan seemed to be able to lay up with the pace more on his last run,copincidentally backed and won and in doing so running 1.11 seconds quicker than the first division won by 72 rated green park and also far quicker than the other two races on the card over 6fs.If he produces that run from the 2 draw will take some beating,has been an eye cather on the aw a few times but to me has seemed outpaced on several occasions athough i'm pretty sure at least two of his runs been a non trier.For me i'll sticvk with the trade 8/1 looks massive on those chester times,according to that run he's run to a mark of around 80 if taking the other race as a guide,there are others in the race such as gap princess and another citizen looking extremely well handicapped but i think lucky dan should be nearer 4/1 7/2 so looks a decent trade!!
 
Put in a Lay request for Dan at 4.0 ............. and it was taken ! :lol:
Out for a very healthy profit just five minutes or so after I backed it.
(Backed it at 7/1 with Victor -- only 11/2 available with 365).

Thanks again, Gigilo.
 
Hard mare to back russian rave always runs well when not expected has some very good form in the context of this race,a second to the progressive valencha last season,a fifth to golden delicious,second to desert poppy over 6fs and this season over a mile at ascot a third to making eyes.She has the best turf form and won this race last year,little curtsey looks interesting on 2nd to rules'n regulations at kempton but i would imagine russian rave will go off 5/2 or shorter in this race even though i couldn't be confident of her winning.Her record of two from twenty eight tells a bit of a story,although perhaps a bit unfair as she has never dropped in the weights much. If she gets massively overbet i will leave a bet running on as i've already backed her at 7/2 as well!
 
Lucky Dan is trained at my local stable and is fit and fancied today. The change in form is more to do with change of tactics...it certainly wasn`t a "non-trier"previously.

The stable also run Dubara Reef today (Redcar 5-05) and that is showing definite signs of returning to it`s 3 year old form...worth an interest.
 
All i will say dan is more non triers the better as far as i'm concerned as there would never be any point in betting,i wouldv'e stopped years ago!
I'm out at 3.85 russian rave left a small bet running on,just waiting to see if lucky dan shortens a bit more!!And out at 5.0 lucky dan again left a token bet on.
 
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