Denman Chase

Ian_Davies

Ian_Davies

Apprentice
Joined
May 7, 2023
Messages
912
Location
Hampshire
Djelo Charlie Deutsch
Fugitif Sean Bowen
Ga Law Gavin Sheehan
Le Patron David Noonan
Bravemansgame Harry Cobden
Eldorado Allen Brendan Powell
Hitman Freddie Gingell
Sam Brown Sam Twiston-Davies
 
I think the Irish Gold Cup last week might just have had the edge on it tbh inasmuch as I reckon any one of the first EIGHT home in it would have won this insult to Denman's memory. 😂
 
I put this on the 'what are you backing' thread. Should maybe have put it here so copying and pasting:

Saturday, Newbury 2.25 - Sam Brown 16/1, 3 places - I have doubts about a lot of this field. The race might fall into the lap of Bravemansgame but it might just fall apart altogether, in which case any of the others could win. I’m going to chance Sam Brown each-way and hope for the best. He went close in the veterans’ final recently and the front two were a long way clear. He's third top on my ratings and on RPRs.

Edit - the 16/1 is only available with Hills but they won't let me bet ew and limit my stake so I've had to settle for 14/1 elsewhere.
 
By my stats have the Denman Chase as one of the 4 key races for winners heading to following Chelt Gold Cup i.e.

Chelt Gold Cup, 16 winners have gone to the following Chelt Gold Cup and 4 have won
Kemp King George VI, 19 winners have gone to the following Chelt Gold Cup and 5 have won
Newb Denman Chase, 13 winners have gone to the following Chelt Gold Cup and 4 have won
Chelt Broadway Novice, 12 winners have gone to the following Chelt Gold Cup and 3 have won

But without further criteria I don't view any of them as really strong trends
 
Am I right that they are taking all the headgear off Bravemansgame ? Tends to suggest they have accepted that he in decline rather than not trying.
 
Paul Nicholls said his main aim this season is the National.Not got my finger on the pulse these days but have the weights been set ? How low could he possibly get in at Aintree. Personally I can't see him getting down low enough to be competitive ? I'd of thought he may of retained some ability but his no show in the King George has me thinking he's gone at the game. Maybe it is still just a breathing issue and the tongue tie might help.

I have no point to this just thinking out loud really.
 
Le Patron has some good course form.

Obviously a line needs to be put through his last run. He's had a nice break and I could see him out running his odds.

Hopefully there's a bit of juice in the ground for him.
 
Last edited:
Bravemansgame can't win the Grand National because he's too old and not trained in Ireland.

Moreover, the only reason why he hasn't got the nickname "The Stable Bridle Ponce" at Ditcheat is because he's in the same yard as Hitman.

If those two were football clubs you could have the lot on the nil-nil draw every time they met.
 
My take on this race (BOs as they were yesterday when I typed it up):

Horse​
OR​
TS​
MON​
Notes​
RPR​
BO​
Bravemansgame​
157 ​
163 ​
183​
?​
174 ​
9/4​
Hitman​
156 ​
159 ​
168​
174 ​
11/2​
Sam Brown​
153 ​
159 ​
166​
?​
172 ​
16/1​
Ga Law​
154 ​
158 ​
163​
168 ​
8/1​
Le Patron​
152 ​
134 ​
163​
+p​
165 ​
13/2​
Djelo​
160 ​
144 ​
160​
?​
168 ​
4/1​
Fugitif​
148 ​
151 ​
160​
163 ​
12/1​
Eldorado Allen​
147 ​
151 ​
159​
164​
164 ​
16/1​

If the real Bravemansgame were to turn up he’d wipe the floor with this lot and should be odds on. However, the Grand National is his stated target and they won’t want him to be going up the ratings. It might be that he can win this and not go up but why take the chance? Personally, at this stage I don’t see him as a National type but he is certainly well handicapped on his best form. Hitman returned to his best last time and, for me, is another who is handicapped to win a decent one although this might well be a much easier task than one of the £100k handicaps. I’m not sure about this trip for him either. He appeared not to get home against Shishkin last year and against the 143-rated Zanza the year before, also in this race. Le Patron has a nice profile and good course form but has never tried this trip and Noonan is not one of the yard’s jockeys. I’m thinking the big handicap here in three weeks’ time over 2m4f, which is back up to £100k this year, might be the plan for him. I’m not convinced Djelo is worth a mark of 160; I think his big win the time before last was a race that fell into his lap. So this race might either fall into the lap of Bravemansgame but it might just fall apart altogether, in which case any of the others could win. I’m going to chance Sam Brown each-way and hope for the best. He went close in the veterans’ final recently and the front two were a long way clear.
 
I can't bring myself to trust Bravemansgame these days. I think he's gone st the game. Taking nothing away from the brilliant Paul Nicholls who could still win the race but with Hitman
 
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