Denman Chase

Ian_Davies

Ian_Davies

Apprentice
Joined
May 7, 2023
Messages
997
Location
Hampshire
Djelo Charlie Deutsch
Fugitif Sean Bowen
Ga Law Gavin Sheehan
Le Patron David Noonan
Bravemansgame Harry Cobden
Eldorado Allen Brendan Powell
Hitman Freddie Gingell
Sam Brown Sam Twiston-Davies
 
I think the Irish Gold Cup last week might just have had the edge on it tbh inasmuch as I reckon any one of the first EIGHT home in it would have won this insult to Denman's memory. 😂
 
I put this on the 'what are you backing' thread. Should maybe have put it here so copying and pasting:

Saturday, Newbury 2.25 - Sam Brown 16/1, 3 places - I have doubts about a lot of this field. The race might fall into the lap of Bravemansgame but it might just fall apart altogether, in which case any of the others could win. I’m going to chance Sam Brown each-way and hope for the best. He went close in the veterans’ final recently and the front two were a long way clear. He's third top on my ratings and on RPRs.

Edit - the 16/1 is only available with Hills but they won't let me bet ew and limit my stake so I've had to settle for 14/1 elsewhere.
 
By my stats have the Denman Chase as one of the 4 key races for winners heading to following Chelt Gold Cup i.e.

Chelt Gold Cup, 16 winners have gone to the following Chelt Gold Cup and 4 have won
Kemp King George VI, 19 winners have gone to the following Chelt Gold Cup and 5 have won
Newb Denman Chase, 13 winners have gone to the following Chelt Gold Cup and 4 have won
Chelt Broadway Novice, 12 winners have gone to the following Chelt Gold Cup and 3 have won

But without further criteria I don't view any of them as really strong trends
 
Am I right that they are taking all the headgear off Bravemansgame ? Tends to suggest they have accepted that he in decline rather than not trying.
 
Paul Nicholls said his main aim this season is the National.Not got my finger on the pulse these days but have the weights been set ? How low could he possibly get in at Aintree. Personally I can't see him getting down low enough to be competitive ? I'd of thought he may of retained some ability but his no show in the King George has me thinking he's gone at the game. Maybe it is still just a breathing issue and the tongue tie might help.

I have no point to this just thinking out loud really.
 
It might be handy for BMG if he got dropped a few more pounds just in time for the National weights coming out in a few days' time...
 
Le Patron has some good course form.

Obviously a line needs to be put through his last run. He's had a nice break and I could see him out running his odds.

Hopefully there's a bit of juice in the ground for him.
 
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Bravemansgame can't win the Grand National because he's too old and not trained in Ireland.

Moreover, the only reason why he hasn't got the nickname "The Stable Bridle Ponce" at Ditcheat is because he's in the same yard as Hitman.

If those two were football clubs you could have the lot on the nil-nil draw every time they met.
 
My take on this race (BOs as they were yesterday when I typed it up):

Horse​
OR​
TS​
MON​
Notes​
RPR​
BO​
Bravemansgame​
157 ​
163 ​
183​
?​
174 ​
9/4​
Hitman​
156 ​
159 ​
168​
174 ​
11/2​
Sam Brown​
153 ​
159 ​
166​
?​
172 ​
16/1​
Ga Law​
154 ​
158 ​
163​
168 ​
8/1​
Le Patron​
152 ​
134 ​
163​
+p​
165 ​
13/2​
Djelo​
160 ​
144 ​
160​
?​
168 ​
4/1​
Fugitif​
148 ​
151 ​
160​
163 ​
12/1​
Eldorado Allen​
147 ​
151 ​
159​
164​
164 ​
16/1​

If the real Bravemansgame were to turn up he’d wipe the floor with this lot and should be odds on. However, the Grand National is his stated target and they won’t want him to be going up the ratings. It might be that he can win this and not go up but why take the chance? Personally, at this stage I don’t see him as a National type but he is certainly well handicapped on his best form. Hitman returned to his best last time and, for me, is another who is handicapped to win a decent one although this might well be a much easier task than one of the £100k handicaps. I’m not sure about this trip for him either. He appeared not to get home against Shishkin last year and against the 143-rated Zanza the year before, also in this race. Le Patron has a nice profile and good course form but has never tried this trip and Noonan is not one of the yard’s jockeys. I’m thinking the big handicap here in three weeks’ time over 2m4f, which is back up to £100k this year, might be the plan for him. I’m not convinced Djelo is worth a mark of 160; I think his big win the time before last was a race that fell into his lap. So this race might either fall into the lap of Bravemansgame but it might just fall apart altogether, in which case any of the others could win. I’m going to chance Sam Brown each-way and hope for the best. He went close in the veterans’ final recently and the front two were a long way clear.
 
I can't bring myself to trust Bravemansgame these days. I think he's gone st the game. Taking nothing away from the brilliant Paul Nicholls who could still win the race but with Hitman
 
We [nearly] all thought Neptune Collonges was gone too.

It wouldn't be the profile nowadays of the National winner but the race has a history of 'gone' horses winning: Neptune Collonges, Aurora's Encore, Pineau De Re, Silver Birch etc, all the way back to Royal Athlete, Last Suspect, Ben Nevis and so many others.

The more the horse is made to look gone at the game the quicker they come down the handicap. I can't help thinking that's what's at play with BMG. He's a G1 winner who looks like getting into the National off no more than 155 (assuming he runs moderately today).
 
I’m staggered to see Djelo favourite for this giving weight to the Nicholls pair. This horse started this season over just over 2m at Exeter and hardly looked to want an extra half mile when winning the Peterborough. Then Protektorat put 20 lengths on him in the last half mile at Windsor.
Bravemansgame may be gone as far as Grade 1 chases are concerned but I think his woeful effort in the King George can be at least partly attributed to having had a hard race at Haydock in bad ground. I’ll be backing him to bounce back today albeit that he may be running with the Grand National in mind now he’s drifted to a backable price from the 2/1 ante post
 
I thought SB might be the only stayer (assuming BMG wasn't there to win) in the race but Djelo looked to get it fine.

I did harbour some fear that the race might be coming too soon for SB. He ran well for a long way but the form overall would suggest he ran below form.
 
The way things are going nowadays Olive Nicholls will be getting the leg up on Bravemansgame in Hunters' Chases next season.

The only National that will be winning is the little-known (aka I just made it up) Rutland one.

Hitman came there travelling like the wrath of God, as he always does, touched 3.75 in running, then folded under pressure like the "Baron Of Bridle" merchants he undoubtedly is, bless him.
 
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Ian_Davies said:
The way things are going nowadays Olive Nicholls will be getting the leg up on Bravemansgame in Hunters' Chases next season.

The only National that will be winning is the little-known (aka I just made it up) Rutland one.

Hitman came there travelling like the wrath of God, as he always does, touched 3.75 in running, then folded under pressure like the "Baron Of Bridle" merchants he undoubtedly is, bless him.
Click to expand...
As expected Bravemansgame ran like he always does these day and gave further evidence he has gone at the game.

Wouldn't surprise me one bit if he did go hunter chasing
 
Desert Orchid said:
It might be handy for BMG if he got dropped a few more pounds just in time for the National weights coming out in a few days' time...
Click to expand...

Job done. Down 2lbs to 155. I noticed he went blue in places at oddschecker just after the weights came out. I can't see me not backing it for all the possible doubts I have about it. I've taken 50/1. I'll be surprised if he isn't top-rated when I do my figures.
 
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